According to Gallup, of all the people who spoke at the Democratic and Republican conventions, only Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas saw much change in his approval numbers. Prior to appearing at the convention in Cleveland, Cruz had a net positive rating from Republican voters, but he’s underwater now.
I don’t think that matters at all for Cruz, though, unless Trump somehow wins the presidency. And, in that case, I doubt Cruz has a political future anyway.
All you have to do is think to the day after the election in November. Assuming Trump loses, as he is now universally expected to do, he’ll be in the same (basic) category as Dole, McCain and Romney. Those losers retained some basic level of reverence and respect both within the party and with the media, but they were also blamed for running the wrong kind of campaign with the wrong kind of values. As conservatism can never fail, they were each accused of selling conservatives out, and people who had run to their right in the primaries and lost were seen as more credible than they were with the party’s non-establishment faithful.
The recriminations against Trump are likely to dwarf what we saw with Dole, McCain, and Romney, though, so Cruz stands to benefit more than previous failed challengers. In the end, it will be better to have failed to endorse Trump than to have endorsed him, and Cruz is the most prominent of non-endorsers.
On the other hand, the conservative alternatives to previous nominees haven’t fared all that well. Pat Buchanan went nowhere as a Reform Party candidate in 2000, although Florida Jews accidentally voting for him on the butterfly ballot in Palm Beach may have inadvertently ripped a hole in fabric of the universe and caused a catastrophe from which we (and the Middle East) cannot seem to escape.
I don’t know how convincingly you can argue that Romney ran to McCain’s left in 2008, and the more obvious conservatives like Huckabee didn’t rebound well in 2012. Rick Santorum seemed genuinely surprised that his second place finish in 2012 didn’t make him next in line for the nomination in 2016.
Cruz will have more credibility for having battled with Trump, but that doesn’t assure him of a bright future or a clean shot at the 2020 nomination.
i guess it’s better than another diary about Trump.
Someone will have to pick up what’s left of the republican party, OTOH all the non-Trumps from this cycle were damn weak. And I suspect that in the next 3 bumpy months new enemies will be made that will influence the coming shakeout.
Cruz will have more credibility for having battled with Trump, but that doesn’t assure him of a bright future or a clean shot at the 2020 nomination.
Right, because new grifters and con-men will come along.
nature abhors a vacuum. The current set of grifters and con-men have been out-conned; new ones are bound to step up.
I think it’s different this time. Trump’s takeover is going to stick even if he flops. I saw an article just yesterday – can’t find the link, sorry – that 65% of whites would consider voting for a White Christian Nationalist party, when it’s defined by policy but not name. That’s perilously close to a majority of all voters. Granted, some would consider it but not actually do it, but all the same it means Trump’s white nationalist core supporters are the overwhelming majority of Republicans.
This also explains why Trump’s numbers are relatively good. There really is 40% of the population that wants to expel non-whites and non-Christians from the country, at least if they’re not willing to be properly submissive.
Earlier I’d thought Cruz would be in good shape once Trump went down in flames. I’m changing my opinion though; he’s likely to get booted in 2018 for interfering with the white nationalist cause.
Well that wasn’t hard, but I’m not going to waste my beautiful mind reading the Daily Caller
Study: 65% Of White Americans Would Love A Trumpist Third Party
If the code doesn’t work
http://dailycaller.com/2016/08/16/study-65-of-white-americans-would-love-a-trumpist-third-party/
That’s actually a commentary on the Politico link I saw. Thanks though!
Cruz is going nowhere. First, the Fundie-Con shtick has run its course. Trump has shown the rubes want their bigotry and fascism served without the god sauce. Second, it is highly likely he will lose his bid for re-election in 2018, too many people in the GOP want him gone.
” … First, the Fundie-Con shtick has run its course. … “
Just because bigotry runs strong does not mean the uber-Christians are weak, they are still a force.
There is plenty of Venn diagram overlap of bigots and uber-Christians. I foresee a Talibangelical nominee in 2020. Not Cruz though, too many enemies, maybe someone like Tom Cotton.
It’s not even so much the fundie schtick, in my view. It’s that in order for Cruz’s little gamble to pay off, Trump has to get obliterated. Which isn’t likely.
If Trump lost by 12 points, Cruz could say, “See? You guys should’ve listened to me.” But if Trump loses by 6 points, Cruz just looks like the guy who sandbagged the party and helped put Hillary in the White House.
My guess is Cruz’s career is basically over.
Ted Cruz’s career looks likely to end in 2018 anyway if Rick Perry runs for his seat.
Ted Cruz’s career in Texas Politics is over if Mickey Mouse runs against him.
Because of what he did at the convention? Or because everyone hates him?
Seems to me he has positioned himself pretty well. But I’m not a Texican, and have no idea why they elect ho they elect.
.
” … and have no idea why they elect ho they elect. … “
Christian right controls Texas politics, Rick Perry is really tight with them.
People like Steven Hotze …
http://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Houston-GOP-activist-Steven-Hotze-Kids-will-be-enc-
6386471.php
What a choice, huh? A malevolent know it all genius, or a gun toting religious idiot.
.
Cruz is playing a long game but not a sure one. It’s his only play, frankly. His elaborate and well-planned ‘House of Cards’ gambit for the presidency got bounced by Trump; for which we could be thankful.
Yes,
Pretty much his only play.
I’m sure nobody has forgotten that Trump implied Cruz’s father helped kill JFK. It might just be me, but that’s pretty egregious and unnecessary. WTF. Only in Trump’s tiny handed world could Cruz be expected to climb aboard after that.
I can’t get past…Cruz or Perry, pick one.
Christ.
.
Not to mention Cruz’s affairs with five mistresses. That had to be Roger Stone; so old school yet elegant in its simplicity.
Cruz will always have a future, just not a particularly bright one. After all, he still clings to the belief that a “true conservative” can win the presidency. A laughable premise, but one which will give him succor unto the end of his days.
Meanwhile, he’ll keep winning in Texas. You remember Texas? Motto: “Like a whole ‘nother country.”
A motto I fervently agree with. Because that would mean deportation would be legal.
This is one of those rare occasions when I think you’re off base, Boo. People remember their impressions more than specific facts and opinions. For Republicans who support Trump, Cruz’ non-endorsement was jarring. A deep insult. A kind of humiliation. I think they’ll remember him as a traitor.
What’s particularly devastating for Cruz is it cuts right into his base of support, most of which had gotten their heads wrapped around a President Trump. He has no appeal outside that faction. I think he’s toast.
By January 20th, 2017, you won’t be able to find anyone who ever supported Trump.
I know, I was alive in 1972 and by 1976 you couldn’t find a soul who had voted for Nixon. Not one soul.
I wasn’t alive until 1976 but I believe that. Lots of people claimed they voted Kennedy after he was dead. In 10 years lots more will claim they voted for Obama both times too.
It’s sort of like how apparently every Steelers fan who’s ever lived was there for the immaculate reception.