I can’t even begin to process this all
First, Clinton IS pulling back from Ohio. CNN has the story others are reporting:
http://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2016/09/25/ip-jeffs-notebook.cnn/video/playlists/inside-politics-highlights/
CNN, Trump +1 in CO (CL +2 in 2 way), Clinton + 1 in PA (+3) in 2 way
National: Bloomberg +1 Trump, Franklin Pierce +2 Clinton, Quinnipiac Clinton +1
Big takeway: Trump has broken through 45 in 2 way races, and PA is now essentially tied.
My national estimate
The state summary updated this morning
So this is about as bad as it gets, really.
I have tried to say here why VA, PA and CO were so important. In early September polling began to suggest that Colorado had closed. The VA polling is ambiguous, but still looks good. PA has looked the strongest of the three.
Morning Call is out with a new poll showing Trump down 2. Earlier in the week they had Clinton up 8 – so hopefully this is a blip.
To analyze the race I use this sheet.
At this point Trump has managed to take the lead in 4 Obama states: Nevada, Iowa, Ohio and Florida. Clinton is only close in 1 Romney state, North Carolina, though Arizona and Georgia are in play. Note though that the Clinton margin in MI and WI is now less than the Trump Margin in AZ and GA
If the election was held tomorrow and PA was really this close, you would have to say it was 50/50 at best.
Kyle Kondrak of Chrystal Ball notes widespread rumors Clinton is moving resources out of Ohio.
Just gets worse and worse.
Yougov: Clinton + 1 in Colorado. Last 3 numbers in Colorado: Clinton +1 (YouGov), Tied (Quin),+9 Co Mesa U, Never polling before, Emerson Trump +4, Ipsos Reid Trump +3
VA Yougov confirms it is safe (Clinton +8
Is Maine in play? UNH shows Clinton up on 3. Prior numbers in Maine are Clinton +5 and Clinton +3. It would be surprise if New Hampshire is not close given these numbers.
Again, look at the chart. Trump is putting blue states in play.