And the post debate polls are in:
And here is the summary. Right now the lead looks about 5 points.
Historically you can think of debates as two waves. The first wave occurs in the immediate aftermath. A second occurs between 3 and 5 days later, when a consensus emerges as to the winner.
Right now the bounce looks to be about 2.5 points – which is pretty good. I am researching the bounce durability for a piece tomorrow (at another site)
If you are interested, PPP does not lean Dem in this cycle.
Thought you were too alarmed a few days ago, but a tad too relieved and complacent now.
HRC’s still sitting at 44% in the four-way polls. Trump has slipped. That’s exactly what the first debate was like — Trump lost but HRC didn’t score any points for herself.
I’ve been watching the LATimes tracking poll. Tracking polls tend to be more stable, less volatile. In the late August through Monday polls, this was showed no movement while the others were up and down but averaged weren’t appreciably different from the LAT. It detected the Trump uptick in August before the other pollsters did.
Whether voters end up conforming to their usual patterns (and that would be the safe bet) still remains to be seen.