If he finishes only 4.9 points above his current weighted 538.com averages, Clinton will still win VA, WI, NH, PA, and CO. That leaves Trump holding little Donald even having come from behind in FL, OH, NV, and (yes) NC.

Where are the 5 points going to come from? Spittle about Bill’s women in a less-watched debate this Sunday? Julian Assange?

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