I played soccer this morning in some pretty suboptimal conditions. Wet field, light rain, high winds. And it did no favors to my right ankle which hasn’t had any attached ligaments since some moron tried to take a mid-court charge in a Los Angeles pickup basketball game in 1990 and pinned my foot to the asphalt while I was in a full run. I can barely see straight right now because of the bone-on-bone pain. It’s always worse in cold, humid conditions, but I must have done something to it because it usually only hurts after I’m done exercising, but today it was causing blinding pain before the end of the match. So, I’m sitting here icing it, but it’s impossible to concentrate. I’m going to have to make a tough decision soon on whether it’s worth it to keep playing. Maybe I should go see what my surgical options are, but that seems extreme for preserving what amounts to a twice-a-week soccer habit. On the other hand, I can see this actually crippling me in a decade or two if I don’t do something about it.
Anyway, ordinarily I’d have more insights into the news.
This political environment is very easy to snark, but it’s a real challenge to understand. There are so many moving pieces, so much at stake, and not much history to serve as a guide. I need my thinker thing free of searing pain to try to work through it.
I was just looking over some of the demographics out of Pennsylvania polling, most of which were collected before Trump’s sexual assault tape was divulged, and it looks like the Keystone State was already solidly out of his reach. After the new revelations, it may be curtains for Sen. Pat Toomey, too.
It looks like Trump is now shifting his attack to the Republican Establishment, so that adds a new wildcard into these downticket races. It’s pretty close to Trump telling his supporters to defeat any Republican who has criticized him.
So many self-righteous hypocrites. Watch their poll numbers – and elections – go down!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 9, 2016
If his supporters get the message and decide to make it a priority to vote for Trump and against his Republican critics, that could doom candidates like Kelly Ayotte and John McCain who were so reticent to allow any distance between them prior to this weekend.
In any case, it will be harder to coordinate any messaging against Clinton and downticket Democratic candidates because the GOP will be spending the next month engaged in friendly artillery fire.
Meanwhile, the seeming collapse of the Libertarian ticket is another factor here. Johnson is still a logical place holder for Republican supporters who can’t crossover to Clinton, but he has less and less appeal as his running mate seems to have lost any heart for the fight. It’s hard to say whether this will help Clinton or Trump more, but I suspect that it depends on the state.
Evan McMullin and Mindy Finn are on the ballot in only eleven states and have write-in status in only twenty more. They will be on the ballot in Utah, however, and they (along with Johnson) will help bleed Trump of votes. Utah could definitely go to Clinton if she can build enough support to top a three-way split of the right.
These are just some initial ideas. I’m going to go get some fresh ice packs for my ankle.
I think the debate tonight could shape some of the very things you are discussing here, Boo. If Clinton can needle Trump into creating further rifts on the right via his boorishness and vengeful instincts, while pushing her agenda, that could be the game. We could see things really start to hit the House and pair Ryan’s majority significantly.
On the other hand, if the debate becomes one where moderators and Trump relitigate the Democratic primary and Clinton is constantly put on defense–what Trump is aiming for–I think the Republicans may take solace in muddying the waters a bit. Trump’s on-and-off continuous play is toward disaffected Bernie voters, getting them to stay home, vote third party, or vote for him (sadly, I know a few). That may soften Senate and House blows for Republicans if successful. Of course, this relies on Trump having some tact, which we haven’t seen much of lately.
Don’t worry — that’ll happen here, too.
My more observant and cognitive friends have bemoaned the fact that this campaign was not being prosecuted on how bad a businessman Trump really is. To most of them, Trump’s sexual peccadillos are a side issue. Most have questioned the electoral wisdom of the campaign.
All the adds showing young girls staring into the mirror while Trump talks, the women saying things that Trump said, the detailing of Trump’s misogyny … how serendipitous that this (and probably future) disclosures re-inforce. It’s almost as if HRC & Co KNEW this tape was going to be presented.
This campaign would not have been possible without the recent (last 5-10 years) discussions about rape culture. My brother will argue himself blue in the face that rape culture doesn’t exist. 30 years ago he would’ve said “you’re fucking nuts” and walked off.
Trump’s performance and HRC’s campaign of calling attention to that performance is built on the ongoing campaign to not teach young girls to avoid rape … rather to teach young boys/men not to rape.
It’s long overdue.
This is ripe for some epic BooMan punditry.
My take – admittedly blinded by bias – is that this could be a black swan event – not for the presidential election, which was decided the moment Trump won the nomination, but for Congress, which by all rights should have been decided the moment the GOP had a wave election in a census year (2010). The GOP lock on congressional electoral math is even stronger than the dems’ lock on the Electoral College, right? The problem is that it’s based on the unholy alliance of old school Republicans and angry old white people (i.e., Trump supporters) turning out to vote for GOP congressional candidates.
But:
It doesn’t matter which of the GOP cohorts has suppressed turnout or votes for Trump but not the down-ballot. It only matters that the GOP congressional vote is suppressed by 10% from 2012 – maybe even less.
Of course, it’ll swing back in 2018 with a vengeance because HRC won’t read the following:
THE PEOPLE WHO WON’T BE LISTENING IN 2018 ARE LISTENING NOW
TOTAL TURNOUT:
2008 132 million
2010 90 million
2012 130 million
2014 81 million
Still, I think HRC might be more effective than Obama if given 2 years of three branches of government.
Just to reiterate because there will be a backlash no matter what we need progressive thunderbolts when we have the chance.
Hillary would likely be more effective just because this time the Senate won’t have a blocking filibuster (it’s gone if the Democrats get the trifecta). However, it’s unfortunately very possible that the median House representative might be an obnoxious Blue Dog because although there aren’t many left, the majority would likely be very narrow.
Chaos creates opportunity.
Sorry about your ankle – have it looked at as soon as practical.
Trump going negative on his political partners would be delightful.
I’m sure Hillary will hit on the retracted endorsements immediately – that should be enough to set him off. Then anything he brings up about Bill C will be seen as reactionary and desperate to the independents. Of course the rabid base will eat it up, they aren’t going anywhere.
Hopefully this is the final nail in the coffin.
Watched CNN (during Steeler half time)…all the women on the panel will not allow anyone to defend The Donald. They aggressively shoot down all talking points/excuses.
Excellent. And well they should.
I can’t see how your ankle functioned PERIOD without attached ligaments. The level of pain you describe is concerning. I would consider (depending on your insurance status) seeing an orthopedist. Indeed, if you lose function of the ankle now at (my guess) your early 40s, by 20 years from now you are going to be very frozen up, possibly having some pretty severe motion issues. If something pulled today, which may be the cause of “blinding pain”, you might find that immediate attention saves a ton of later reconstructive work. Again, since I don’t know your insurance status, I am not saying go for a full workup. But if the coverage includes some orthopedic work, I’d do it. Just make sure to ask questions – is this guy in the network? Do I need pre-approval? Do I need to see my primary before seeing a specialist?
I’d say a little over-reaction is often a better idea than letting stuff slide. I had a rotator cuff done 23 months ago. At first, I thought it was a bone bruise or a minor muscle pull. A very simple diagnostic evaluation by an orthopedic friend revealed the extent of the damage (“massive tear”), which required a surgery. I have 100% functionality now, and strength is entirely returned. I am more cautious about certain activities, however.
my lower legs muscles stabilize the ankle, which means that they fatigue easily.
But it’s the grinding in the ankle that causes the arthritis to flare up. There’s no padding in there so even a long walk can make me see stars.
I played fairly competitive mens soccer until age 35 when a Greek guy shattered my knee while I was running backwards. Prior to that I noticed more and more bud’s I had played with for years were no longer around due to injuries. I had the knee rebuilt; but eighteen years later it came apart on a jet ski. I asked to get fixed and was told, “at your age?, we’ll just wait for knee replacement surgery.”
I loved playing, but it is not worth it. You need to stop. I honestly believe unless you are a premiere player, men should stop after high school, and women should stop playing after middle school. Very dangerous game. I hate not being able to run for going on seven years.
Also too, I predict after a week of blowjobs and rape, both sides do it, and related non-sense; we will be back to a close race. This summer I was surrounded by four old white Texas friends who started pounding on the table while chanting Trump, Trump, Trump. A genuine circle jerk. They only did it to piss me off. And that is why they will vote for him no matter what the idiot says or does, they just want to punch the hippies and blahs. (Plus Hilary is a squealing, cackling, fake smiling Bitch I could never ever vote for.)
Trump is badly wounded, but not dead yet. We will see after tonight. If he is prepared (which would be a miracle of amazing proportions), he will bring a big attack on her emails that just got dumped on Friday. Hillary has a lot of weaknesses in those emails. Most damningly, she calls for open borders.
Take care of yourself, Martin. I am still fighting pain from overuse injuries I suffered when I was your age. And that was about 10 years ago. I will tell you, it is frustrating when something like that limits your activities. I’m not over the hill, but I wish I had paid more attention at the front end of things. Now it seems I am left to try and treat the symptoms when they get to the point of aggravation that I simply can’t ignore.
Athletic glory is fleeting. Chronic pain is forever.
This may be a dumb question, but how do write-in votes work in the presidential general election, when you’re voting for electors chosen by the candidate, not the candidate him/herself?
one you already know the answer to.
The tendency when you are in the hurricane is to overstate’s it strength.
The fundamental dynamic of the race is about 70% of the electorate, in roughly equal proportions, hate one candidate.
I have long said this would be a 10 point race. I have said that because what is out is the young and that third parties that are not included in debates tend to collapse.
So in Yougov in PA under 29 it is 64-17-11-2.
This is pretty good movement – Clinton has expanded her lead significantly since the debate, Johnson is down to 11. So the margin here is up, and the third party and Trump vote are down.
In OH its 61-19-7 among the young.
So Clinton has clearly improved about 10 – 15 points among the young since the debate – which was worth 3 points overall. Sure enough her lead is up about 3 since the last debate in polling.
I show Clinton at a lead of 6.27 since the debate. But it has stabilized – the 5 day moving average is 6.14.
This by the way is VERY Close to the state of the race in late August, before Clinton became ill. My guess is that is the natural state of the race.
As is typical, polling shifts drive narrative. A candidate declines, and then begins to decline because they are seen as losing.
Perhaps the best example I can think of is 1988. In the second debate the perception was that Dukakis lost badly, and a 5 deficit became a 17 point deficit. The knock on effect became awful.
Eventually Dukakis lost by about the margin he was behind going into the second debate. The bounce receded, and the race went back to something close to baseline.
By contrast in 2008 the financial crisis turned a close race into an Obama lead he never gave up.
The early signs from polling are that the tapes don’t matter much. Mourning Consult finds a 4 point race after the tape was released.
What is worth remember are two things:
If you get about a 10 point shift among GOP leaning independents, you get another 3 points. Which is about a 10 point lead: and my guess is where this race is a week from now.
Agreed with everything but you’re underplaying the tape (with more to come). I don’t think we can truly measure its effect yet. No doubt it won’t move the base — figure a hard floor of 40%. But the goal is not to move the base. The goal is to demoralize the base, packing a wedge between them and the party elites like Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell. Perhaps getting them to the point that they don’t vote GOP down ballot, or even vote at all. This would potentially show up in the LV screens a week or so from the repeated playing of the tape. Which would demoralize them further. As you say, snowball that shit.
A sign of the bubbles people inhabit.
Wikileaks dumped sum pretty damning stuff, which if I read the blogs just didn’t happen. There is ammunition there: in a typical race it would be a big deal.
If I accept your argument, Trump’s objective is to hammer Clinton and get the base’s blood up. And there is more than enough in the wikileaks to help him do that.
I am actually rather doubtful about the idea that GOP has a turnout problem in its base, or that it will effect down ballot much.
The closing argument for the GOP down ballot is don’t trust Clinton with a Dem House and Senate. It will be an effective argument.
More likely is Clinton can peal of more suburban women and bring home Sanders men – the two demographics most in flux.
That is how in my opinion she gets to 10.
So here is a warning. If Trump splits the debate and the polls don’t move the narrative is going to shift very quickly.
As always, do not draw a line from the recent past and assume it predicts the future.
I suppose we will wait and see. Count me among those who sees in the emails everything I already knew about Clinton. In fact, they read exactly like I thought they would. This is why I did not understand why she wouldn’t release them on her own accord. I think the “release the speeches” rallying cry was more effective than the damage the speeches would have had by the time Sanders really started hammering them. In February he wasn’t using it yet, so it’s not like it would have altered the trajectory of the race.
Anyway, it’ll depend on Trumps ability to use them. I doubt he will be successful.
The open borders stuff would have hurt. The stuff suggesting Wall Street knows best how to regulate itself would have hurt to.
It would have cut. They didn’t release because I think – and some in Philly told me this – that they thought Sanders was a bigger threat than any GOP candidate.
I regard her populism as mostly a fraud, and so there is nothing I find surprising.
I think it would have hurt, maybe add 2-3 points to his total. But audio isn’t as damning as words. It would have been aired already. I don’t think it would have altered the race. Maybe if he had gone after her harder and earlier, but too hard to know at the time.
Anyway, her oppo is going to be releasing a new thing every week until the election. It’s going to suck up all the oxygen.
True story – one of her oppo people got sent to CO.
Her job started with taping GOP events in New Hampshire and Iowa for open mic mistakes.
The she was doing opp research.
And she has just been converted to the field – which is happening to some in Brooklyn.
Yea – the open border stuff would have been dynamite in a primary. I really don’t agree with you that wouldn’t have mattered.
Her biggest weakness is her extremely clear fakiness and lack of credibility. The emails make it clear that she is entirely untrustworthy, and says exactly whatever it takes to shake the bucks down for the Clinton Foundation and the family. The ends justify the means.
The open borders shit is the last fucking straw. She has already promised to staple a green card to ever foreign graduate. There is no limit to the extent that she will pimp for Big India. Disgusting.
I know all of this already.
I am comfortable voting for her – I do not make the world.
This is the best I can do with my vote.
Eyes wide open.
I can’t vote for her. I certainly can’t vote for him. He’s such an idiot, honestly. No intellectual life at all – just a con man. I can’t vote for the minor party candidates. I will not vote for president.
Since Booman is apparently away right now, I will say it: your inability to see the big picture is breathtaking in its stupidity.
Is Clinton the best candidate ever? Fuck no.
Is Clinton the best candidate (by far) of the current batch on our ballots? Fuck yes.
Don’t kid yourself — every person who does not vote for Clinton (or refrains from voting) is, in effect, voting for Trump.
This is the clearest choice you will ever be given — you have one vote, don’t blow it.
Thanks for your opinion. I’m done with that “best of the worst” shit. Plus my vote is irrelevant based on where I live. I vote for local candidates.
Carlo, read DataGuy’s posts from the past year.
He’s a republican.
I don’t agree. He’s not a Republican. He’s just an extremist nativist. If Republicans supported pubic schools and public health care but weaponized the border, maybe it’d be fair to say that.
Ok. He has some policy positions that do not track with McConnell, Ryan and Co.
In my mind, his over-arching disdain of anything data driven irrevocably places him squarely in the Republican middle. But I guess sometimes policy positions can overcome cultural allegiances.
Sure as hell ain’t a progressive or liberal, tho.
Thank you for the heads-up. I am new to this site and am still learning about the players.
My policy positions are driven by my concern about jobs for Americans. Most of the rest of you don’t give a shit about that. Hillary, your candidate, is on record calling for open borders and praising TPP and NAFTA, and you all are just fine with that.
I’m not.
Bernie generally stands where I will go. He has questioned the slavish adherence to open-borders. Of course, he was forced by the illegals lobby to abjure his stance on this issue. He is someone who I can back.
Never Hillary though. She’s the senator from Punjab.
He’s a republican.
.
Bullshit. Bill Clinton gave a bunch of speeches in 1993-1994 which I can agree with. What I am is a Barbara Jordan-Cesar Chavez Democrat.
I bet that you don’t know that Cesar Chavez hated illegals, and sent UFW members to the border to beat the crap out of them. Hey, he called them wetbacks. This moronic shit about the Democrats kissing up to the illegals lobby is new. And it is wrong.
Here’s a clip where Chavez is talking about ag labor and bringing in strikebreakers from Mexico. He called them, right in the clip, “wetbacks”. Of course, many here would defend the use of such labor. I do not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQ9jIXHhFJI
I can remember when that wouldn’t have been automatically (at least among rational members of the Reality-Based Community) an insult.
Now that the “GOP” has been taken over by its most extreme elements, morphing over several decades into the Party of Reality-Denial, anti-[small d]emocratic vote suppression, and the all-out-war, scorched-earth politics of character-assassination, anyone choosing to remain affiliated with all that earns having it applied to them as an insult.
IMO.
I also think internal numbers look worse. Clinton knows where her voters are. There has to be a reason they’ve never sweated Colorado. The GOP has a call on Monday releasing all House members of Trump if they choose to do so if the debate goes badly. I think the GOP has worse internal numbers, too.
They did/are sweating CO. They won’t make that mistake again.
I know of people who left Brooklyn to go there. They are on the air there.
“Internal Numbers” have a mythology all their own. I had privy to some in 2012 – they aren’t some secret elixir.
I don’t think the polling windows have completely caught the post-tape effect yet.
NBC/WSJ goes from +7 to +14 (sample separated by a month, however).
Booman:
Alternate ice packs and heat, 20 minutes for each, max. And not directly on the skin. Ice is good for reducing inflammation, but heat brings blood to the area, which is necessary for healing.
Take ibuprofen for inflammation and pain. Supplement with acetaminophen. Take both as indicated on the bottle, and if you have a sensitive stomach, eat something alongside the ibuprofen.
If there is still swelling, keep that ankle elevated as much as you can, and keep alternating ice and heat, again with 20 minute max duration for each.
Hope you find a way to keep doing what you love without crippling yourself. Get multiple medical opinions.