In the middle of explaining how formidable Harry Reid’s voter turnout operation looks in Nevada, James Hohmann of the Washington Post mentions something that applies even more so to California.
Many Republicans familiar with Nevada worry about this nightmare scenario: If Trump loses decisively along the Eastern seaboard—New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and/or Florida—the networks could declare that Clinton is the president-elect before polls even close in Nevada. Many core GOP voters typically cast their ballots while commuting home from work. What if a couple percent of them decide that the election is over and it’s not worth waiting in line? Because Republicans are so reliant on these voters, and Democrats will have so many votes locked in from early voting, it could lead to a down-ticket bloodbath. At the very least, it could tip a close Senate race to Cortez Masto.
The networks may not “formally” call the race before the polls close in Nevada, but anyone on the West Coast listening to the radio on the way home from work will be forgiven for thinking that their vote isn’t needed. That puts more of a damper on enthusiasm to divert to a polling place if you’re intent on voting for the loser.
Nevada, though, does have other competitive races that might entice a despondent Republican to show up regardless of the realization that Hillary Clinton will be our next president. In California, things are different. The state will go overwhelmingly for Clinton and the Senate race there is between two Democrats. If you’re a Republican, you have to go all the way down to your congressman to find a vote that might matter. This is going to be a GOTV problem for the Republicans regardless of what happens on the East Coast in the presidential contest. But, if Republicans are feeling glum because they’ll be getting a Clinton reprise, that’s just one more reason to skip the polls and go home and pet your dog.
I think with Trump, too, there’s an element of not wanting to dirty yourself by endorsing him unless you think it might actually matter. I think people know that the future will not be kind to those who voted for or visibly supported Trump, and who wants to look into their grandkids’ eyes and explain something like that?
I’ll never forgive Carter for conceding before the polls closed on the west coast in 1984. Totally screwed up LOTS of local races and initiatives.
Carter was an incredibly inept politician. Some good initiatives, but the man had no game at all. He got in because he was Obama to Nixon’s Bush II.
Didn’t know Carter conceded in 1984 but I was to young to vote then and in 1980.
On a meaningless Nevada note, I was in Storrie County this weekend and saw an HRC sign on a rural property near Virginia City. Of course there were some Trump signs, but we aren’t talking a about an area known for peaceniks and flower power. Quite the opposite actually. There were more HRC signs in the valley below too.
I take that as a positive sign for Dems in Nevada. Folks feel good enough to post stuff in areas that they normally wouldn’t. Certainly didn’t see Obama signs in this area, I’ll say that much.
PROPOSITIONS: CA always has a rash of propositions with evil corporations spending millions to deceive gullible voters. This year, almost all of the are actively in favor of progressive causes as opposed to defending against gay marriage or the usually shameless right wing dirty tricks that get on the ballot each cycle. Marijuana gets all the attention, but Bernie was out here campaigning hard on Prop 61 (anti-big-pharma) and there’s another against Citizen’s United. It’s hugely important that we get a complete turnout and that everyone goes all the way down the ballot. Hopefully marijuana will spike the millennial turnout. I know quite a few of these folks and they’re very cynical.
CONGRESS: As blue as we think of CA as being, we have more GOP congressmen than most red states – a grand total of 14, including Issa and many other monsters who are even worse, if less powerful. I’m not sure which side would benefit most from a first round East Coast knockout of Trump but if it winds up making more GOP voters throw in the towel and stay home, 14 is a lot of seats, and since we barely even have a state GOP party, any gerrymandering here was done by Democrats (mostly corrupt, short-sighted ones, of course, but …) But as we know, sometimes even GOP gerrymandering backfires when there’s a bigger than expected shift.
SENATE: Polling has been intermittent, but Kamala Harris seems to be a lock. Sánchez is a blue dog, a DINO, and a jerk. Kamala Harris is almost infinitely superior to the Lieberman-loving Boxer who herself has been infinitely superior to Feinstein (who will hopefully retire when her term is up). I hope to have a chance to vote for Harris for President at some point. Keep an eye on her in 2024.
PRESIDENT: Fuhgeddaboudit. I’ve yet to see a single Trump bumper sticker, yard sign, or voter who admits they’re for Trump. Actually there were a few Trump-leaners way back in the primaries, but by now they’re cowering in their corners, hoping no one remembers the stupid arguments they made. I can’t even find anyone to engage in Trump humor – people are viscerally disgusted and can’t stand to hear his name, his voice, or anything about him.
Consider yourself blessed. There are so many Trump signs around here that they are blocking out the sun.
Last weekend I drove from here in central Missouri down thru the southwest corner of the state into eastern OK and from there into northwest AR enroute to Little Rock, then back north thru north central AR and south central MO until I returned.
With the exception of metro Little Rock, it was TRUMP UBER ALLES!!!!!! the entire trip. I’m sure if I looped up into Kansas I would have seen more of the same. It’s batshit crazy central here.
There are some pockets of resistance in the northwestern corner of Arkansas, but yeah, it’s pretty much white tribalism throughout the state. Ein volk, ein reich, ein combover.
mostly agrees with what I see.
Clinton is in for sure in CA, although I have seen Trump yard signs. I think exactly two of them. Agree that Harris looks safe, although I like Sanchez more than you do.
It’s not accurate any more to say that “gerrymandering here was done by Democrats”, the new redistricting law really cleaned things up starting in 2012. those 14 repub congresscritters are balanced by 39 dems. It would be great if the awful Issa went down.
I hear from a lot of people who are pro-MJ but think prop 64 has too much wrong with it, but polls say it’s way ahead.
Hooray! My “rep” the horrible known criminal Issa has a strong contender, Doug Applegate, who appears to have a very good chance of winning. Cross your fingers, everyone. It would be SO GOOD to see the last of money/time wasting bullshit artist Daryll Issa.
In my Oceanside CA home, I see some Trump signs but not lots. Where I live part time in Sacramento, there are very few signs at all this year. No Trump signs in my neighborhood, which is very mixed race… thank goodness!
Suddenly there are a lot of Applegate TV ads, and quite a few yard signs for him. I have not seen one Issa sign. Issa will lose the coast, if he pulls it out it will be in land, and the marines. I think he’s toast.
There are a LOT of Trump supporters in O’side. My wife is fed up with how many of her patients are for him.
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Sean Hannity, in a rare moment of honesty, was just telling his audience that if Trump loses North Carolina, it’s “game over”. The polls in North Carolina close at 4:30 PM Nevada time. Given the closeness of today’s Monmouth poll, it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to call the state for her with only a half-hour worth of reporting. But if she’s sitting with a 2.6 point lead (her current 538.com weighted average) when the Republican Nevadans get into their cars…
Does FL or PA close at the same time as NC? Any one of those would pretty much put the nail in Trump’s garish gold-plated coffin.
I forgot about Florida. That’s a better example. Also a Hannity-acknowledged “game over” state, polls close at 4:00 PM Nevada time, and may well be callable in less than an hour.
I read somewhere this weekend – unverified – that the media no longer calls the election until AFTER the West Coast polling closes. Of course, that still leaves Alaska, Guam & Hawaii sort of out of the loop, but hopefully citizens there are tuned in enough to continue to vote for local/state issues.
Of course, we’re going to hear results throughout the day, so some people may be influenced to not vote if they are only thinking about the presidential race. For me, it’s much more about down ballot races and the usual bunch of CA propositions.
I am aware that in NV, as well as CA, OR and WA that many citizens now vote by mail. So many aren’t even voting on Nov 8 anymore. I’ll be voting this weekend in front of my computer. CA ballot initiatives take a lot of study to get the correct way to vote.
I really miss that about vote-by-mail in Oregon. Having time to sit down and read up on what things actually are and what choices you actually have was really nice. And it always turned out there was some minor race or ballot initiative was on the ballot that I’d not heard about even when I was actively trying to pay attention to local and state politics.
Vote-by-mail really allowed me to be a much better citizen and a much more informed vote.
Which is exactly why my home state of Arkansas, where I am now trapped due to needing to rely on my family good graces and support because of health reasons, will never adopt it. The current Republicans in the state are always actively trying to make things worse and make a dumber voting base.
Yeah, Oregon and Washington (where I live) vote by mail is the best. I’m able to really read up on all issues and fill out my ballet with my wife and kids (informing the young ones of the process and the issues and such.) Really great stuff. I’m still flabbergasted when I hear one of my friends back in Ohio (for example) explaining how they are gearing up for actually going into their polling place and WAITING IN LINE to vote.
It’s 2016…vote by mail should be the norm, not the exception.
If you prefer to vote by mail instead of in person, there is a permanent early voting by mail list in Arizona you can get on. If you are registered as a Dem, the Dem party will contact you and offer to get you on it.
I have been voting by mail for several years now – every election, even the ones that are just local municipal.
voting?
Rules vary by state, I’m sure.
Here, I notify elections officials I want to be permanently on the “absentee” list.
(Requirements that you’d actually be “absent” on election day, and to provide documentation of that, were eliminated here years ago. Now it amounts to early voting, except my ballot arrives in the mail 3-4 weeks before election day; I can vote and mail it back in time to arrive on/before election day; or I can just hand-deliver it to the county elections office any time up to and including election day [which is what I’ve done for several years] — or to my local precinct on election day.)
YMMV, of course, but you might want to look into the option. Under our rules, works great for me.
Since you brought up the west. Check out Liz Cheney’s campaign site. Her issue page has every right wing talking point from the last 30 years. Wy will send her to DC to do what?
WY will send MiniMe Cheney to DC to obstruct and do as little as possible, other than to cut taxes for the very very wealthy, aka her Big Bad Daddy.