The outcome of the presidential election has never been in any serious doubt, barring unforeseen events or revelations. The entire game for months now has been about getting momentum at the end so that the tide is strong enough to wash out the Republican Senate and, in a better world, the Republican House. I agree with Ed Kilgore that FBI Director James Comey’s inexplicable behavior is too little, too late. Especially, too little.
But it is a big momentum staller, which gives permission to morally scrupulous Republicans to come home. In fact, as the shock of the Access Hollywood tape (and related revelations) faded, the Republicans were already coming home.
In 2000, a late breaking story about George W. Bush getting arrested for drunk driving years earlier stalled his momentum, may have cost him the popular vote, and even the presidency (if not for a flawed ballot design in Palm Beach County, Florida that spoiled thousands of Gore votes).
It’s not just about winning, but about winning going away. The Comey Gambit (or error) has given life to Republicans, reminded them about what they don’t like about Clinton, and will help dampen what was a growing sense of hopelessness and despondency.
Something similar happened in 2012 when President Obama had a startlingly lackluster and indifferent performance in the first debate against Romney. The polls, which had been steadily widening, began to close. And, while the Obama campaign got the ball moving in the right direction again in the next two debates, the final margin never reached the point it should have.
This faux scandal will help the Republicans, but it won’t save Trump. The reason you should be pissed is that it will accomplish nothing but to make divided government more likely and anti-Clinton hysteria (once she is president) more fervent.
And Clinton will have to live with Comey because a president cannot fire a FBI director, as they are confirmed for ten year terms.
