538 now has FL and NC tipped pink, with strong Trump momentum. Assume he wins there.
They also have him a combed-forward hair ahead in NV. But we’re told that Clinton has a considerable early voting advantage. Assume Clinton wins there.
What about NH? The only quality post-Comey poll – MassINC – has Trump +1. Again, strong Trump momentum. Assume Trump wins there.
The EV count stands Clinton 266, Trump 263.
Then it all comes down to CO.
The only post-Comey poll by even a B grade pollster is Emerson College, 10/28-10/31, 750 LV.
Clinton +3
Margin of error: 3.5
EDIT:
Another way to look at it, assuming that Trump wins FL and NC… [Since I originally posted this, NC has tilted back to Clinton at 50.1%]
Of NH, CO, and NV, Clinton must win 2. Even if she wins CO, without the other two, the College is tied at 269 and (we may safely assume) Trump wins.
