Update [2016-11-6 10:15:20 by fladem]:
11/6
NBC is out with Clinton up 5 in the two way. Same as Marist, and IBD has Clinton up 3 in the two way.
I think this is pretty safe at this point. The EV doesn’t look good in Florida, but does in Nevada and North Carolina.
I went canvassing yesterday (with a Mass Congressman). The GOTV game in NH is very good. There were Trump hangers on doors, though, so they have some presence.
I think this will be between 6 to 8 in the end.
As of this morning:
Clinton up by more than 2 in the state numbers.
National Polling versus the state average since 2000. Frequently it is more accurate. Also note the shift late in ’12 and ’00”. A similar shift would have an enormous effect.
Think this is election is more volatile than 2012. It is. Where is the baseline for this race? I thought it was in late August. I am no longer sure.
The same graph from 2012. The interesting thing is the final margin was close to the margin before the first debate. A good argument can be had about the impact of Hurricane Sandy.
The cheat sheet I have been using. I think the EV numbers suggest the polls are wrong in NV and NC, and the NC poll average is influenced by the SUSA number. Still, this can be lost. Yes, this has every poll since yesterday. Note the Johnson + Stein number at the far right. In 14 states with 173 EV’s the third party vote is larger than the Clinton margin. In 2000 the collapse of the Nader vote late allowed Gore to close.
National Polls since this morning. Beware of looking in the rear view mirror. There is movement in IBD and ABC to Clinton. I still think Clinton wins by at least 5 as the third party vote, which is young, collapses and winds up with Clinton. There is evidence the Thursday sample ib both polls looks like the period from October 21-26. That would imply a 4 – 6 point race.
This is what should be in everyone’s mind. A 3 point national move put Clinton on either 270 or 269 depending on a Maine CD.
