One reason why New Hampshire can continue to claim the first in the nation presidential primary is that a very high percentage of New Hampshire voters turn out of it. Unlike the iowa caucuses where a small percentage show up. (On that measure, the parties shouldn’t honor the expensive (to the campaigns) the first in the nation Iowa caucus results. Iowa could choose to move its caucus to that of the other states that first hold a caucus or switch to a primary and line up with the states that go second.)
For the 2016 presidential primary in Dixville Notch there were nine voters. The results:
Sanders: 4
Trump: 2
Kasich: 3 (the only candidate that made a campaign stop in Dixville Notch)
Last night, turnout in Dixsville Notch was eight voters. One voter was either unable or declined to participate in the general election. (No indication of voter suppression in Dixville Notch.)
The results:
Clinton: 4
Trump: 2
Johnson: 1
Romney: 1 (one voter might have forgotten what year this is)
So, “Never Trump” in Dixville Notch held.
In the Senate race, political party prevailed with Hassan and Ayotte each receiving four votes. As it did in ’12 when Obama and Romney each received five votes. (Obama won in ’08 with fifteen votes.)
Not so in the gubernatorial election (two ticket-splittes).
Van Ostern (D): 2
Sununu (R): 6
Looks as if there were two “Never Trump” voters in the tiny, midnight voting, hamlet of Millsfield. Eighteen Republicans cast primary votes and a total election turnout of twenty-one:
Primary election:
Trump: 3
Cruz: 9
Other GOP: 6
There were three Democratic primary voters and Clinton got all of them.
The general election results:
Clinton: 4
Trump: 16
Sanders: 1
Both Sanders and Clinton gained a “Never Trump” voter in Millsfield.
Governor’s race:
Van Ostern (D): 3
Sununu (R): 18
Perhaps no “Never Trump” in Hart’s Location (has it’s own election results website), but it’s difficult to say because there were two more presidential general election voters and two more that left the presidential election ballot line blank.
Primary results (21 D and 14 R):
Sanders: 12
Clinton: 7
Other Dem: 2
Trump: 4
Kasich: 5
Other GOP: 5
General election results: (37 voters)
Clinton: 17
Trump: 14
Johnson: 3
Sanders: 2
Kasich/Sanders: 1
Senate (39 voters):
Hassan: 21
Ayotte: 17
Day: 1
Governor (39 voters):
Van Ostern (D): 21
Sununu (R): 15
Abramson (I): 3
Can anything close to valid be read into these results? Well, going out on a limb with a non-representative sample of New Hampshire voters as a whole (IOW a guess), while more Republicans than Democrats cast 2016 primary votes, 33,137 more to be precise (a mirror image of the 2008 primary), Trump has barely held onto or failed to capture all of those GOP primary votes. That suggests that statewide, he’s not adding to the total GOP primary vote tally and could easily fall short of the 331 thousand votes that Romney received in ’12 and very possibly the short of McCain’s 316 thousand votes in ’08.
Doesn’t look good for Clinton to match Obama’s ’12 total of 370 thousand votes, but she’s holding or adding better than Trump is.
The surprise is that Hassan is matching or exceeding Clinton’s votes. Might be a surprising good sign for her. We shall see.
Update
12:00 AM election night and surprisingly neither the presidential nor senate race in NH has been called. And now neither will change the outcome of the presidential election or Senate majority, but it would still be nice if Hassan instead of Ayotte were in the Senate.
Update #2
Boston Globe (6:20 PM – November 8, 2016) Kelly Ayotte concedes US Senate race to Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire
The secretary of state’s office showed Hassan with a lead of 1,023 votes out of 738,420.
Still no call on the presidential race in NH. Clinton leads by 1,437 votes.
Boston Globe – the gubernatorial race was called earlier today: GOP’s Sununu beats Democrat Van Ostern in N.H. gubernatorial race Sununu won with 49% of the vote to Van Ostern’s 47%. Surprisingly much closer than it appeared to be shaping up.
If Clinton holds, the midnight NH voter results will have been predictive of three statewide 2016 elections. Not bad for fewer than a hundred people.
Congratulations to Governor Hassan. A harder fought race than probably expected but a sweet win in an otherwise ugly election year for liberal-progressives.
PodestaFiles
Too bad UK Labour head honchos could finagle a way to cheat and defeat the “guy off the street.” (Although they did try.) Unlike the mighty Democratic Party head honchos that put all its ducks in a row long before the 2016 primary election began and therefore, when the “guy off the street” wandered into the race, all the means to take him out were well entrenched, but even then only barely sufficient. So, old Bill had to act like “a guy on the street” and wander into polling stations in many places on primary election day for that last minute push to get HER over the finish line.
Politico on Bloomberg election bucks
A soupcon of nutrition education for mothers and teenagers would go further to reduce soft drink consumption than another stupid sales tax on a tiny luxury which always hits lower income people the hardest. But Bloomie isn’t into quality education, but how he can make another buck off it; hence, his campaign donations for more charter schools.
Same tax proposal here in Cook County IL. It’s going over like a lead balloon. Seems like Democrats will do anything to avoid taxing the rich.
Nice to hear from you. (My ratings total hasn’t been the same without you being around.)
Consumer sales taxes are simply too damn high. Bad public policy to impose so much in the form of regressive taxation. But politicians like them because it’s easy to increase what looks like small additional taxes on the voiceless.
Been staying away when Booman threatened to ban me for not hewing to the Party Line. He’ll probably do it now, so let me say that we are two very different people but I’m glad to have known you on this blog. Fare Thee well, Sister.
I’m just waking up and I’m stunned by the news. Were you up all night/ I went to bed when I saw that Tammy Duckworth was beating the snot out that POS Lirk two to one. I figured “at least one thing went right”. Unfortunately DWS’s handpicked candidate is my new Congressman, but I’ve never had a good one in this part of Illinois, starting with the odious Henry Hyde.
Some things seem too momentous in real time to allow for sleep. I began tracking a few states around five o’clock. Not the all the usual suspects, IN, KY, FL, NC, and OH. The trends began setting up early, but as I’m not well versed in the how the votes in those state roll in, I kept thinking that I might have been seeing the early returns from the most conservative areas and therefore, refrained from jumping to any conclusions. There was truth in my caution — the early numbers were from conservative areas — but by 7:00 PM they either plateaued or began to reverse. Generally, Clinton was lagging Obama’s ’12 vote percentage everywhere. Not just in “flyover country.”
Sure, she could under-perform Obama in blue-blue and red-red states without changing the aggregate EC vote. However, under-performing by a large amount in those states suggested that it wouldn’t be contained to them and would leak out into some other states. irrc, she only dropped by two points in FL, but it was one and a half more than she could afford there. While I’ve had her losing OH for months, I was still shocked that she under-performed Obama by over seven points.
I hope we here try to be sophisticated in analyzing and interpreting the results because I think they are complex and important. Screaming racism doesn’t work for me because the baseline is the re-election of the first black president.
Hazarding a guess, Obama promised Hope and Change, Clinton promised More Of the Same.
That won’t stand up to scrutiny. Interestingly enough, Hillary’s original campaign plan was NOT to run as Obamaa’s third term. Not surprising because Bill does loathe him, but back in his day, he was furious with Gore for not running as Clinton’s third term and adding a populist stance in his (Al’s) campaign.
Hillary ran into problems with her plan because she needed Obama voters to get through the primary. (Didn’t stop Bill going on the stump and denigrating Obama.) And “I am woman” and the third Clinton term wasn’t getting the job done with those under the age of forty.
She successfully made that pivot in her campaign (assisted by many black leaders and staffers), but it had the poison pill of what change did our hope deliver? Precious little and while the general public recognizes that, Democratic insiders and a high number of political junkies don’t. Once Sanders was in the mix, she had to be Obama and not Obama which fed right into the public perception that she’s a phony. OTOH, she couldn’t run and win with her authentic self.
I was unclear. I meant that in contrast to Obama’s promise of change (with the resulting blowback two yeas later when he didn’t deliver), Hillary did not promise change but keeping the status quo, first beating back sanders’ campaign for change then fighting Trump’s call for change. Only the top 10 or 20% are reasonably happy with the economy and the Forever war in the Middle east. The rest wanted change. Many Democratic partisans deluded themselves that she was a Progressive, but that doesn’t make it true, as you well know.
I don’t think it’s racism. economic issues, mistaken belief that T is on the side of the struggling middle class. ppl couldn’t get behind Bill’s 3rd term, and all that fund raising in the Hamptons, a platform that consisted of T is scary. Look at some of the % for T where the white middle class is hardest hit – I saw numbers near 90%.
The (edited) Luntz focus group on last Sunday’s edition of 60 Minutes was illuminating if one didn’t get bogged down on partisanship. While the Trump voters weren’t identified, none of them seemed to have any illusions about who and what he is. Only three of the participants were voting FOR a candidate. The others were voting against a candidate. Nobody is happy.
I looked at some exit poll where they asked about dislike. Those that disliked Trump voted Clinton, those that disliked Clinton, voted Trump. The group that disliked neither was insignificant and those that dislike both voted mostly Trump.
Sorry, lost the link now. So that is from memory.
I am wondering about turnout. Far as I can see, the voting numbers presented are votes counted, and as there are still uncounted votes, comparing with 2012 is pointless. Though finished states should have turnout numbers, and partly finished should have turnout for the parts that were finished.
What I would like to know is if people stayed home because they disliked both candidates or went to vote because they disliked one more. In effect, did Trump turn out Romney’s missing voters or did Clinton fail to get out the Obama voters?
Important question, but to soon to tell and no reason to engage in a guessing game when the numbers will be available in the next few days or weeks. Five states have yet to be called and the election boards don’t seem to be making much progress on completing the job. It’s possible that the workers are too disheartened to proceed.
Heard that at the hairdresser’s yesterday! Widespread disgust with both candidates. Many saying they weren’t going to vote. I encouraged them to vote, reminding them that there were two other candidates (Johnson and Stein) that would serve as disgust vehicles. And in fact, i think Johnson did crack 5% in Illinois. Haven’t looked at the final figures. HRC didn’t win two to one as I earlier reported. Must have been early Cook County numbers.
well I wrote about it during the primary. but some ppl actually do think T has the interest of the middle class at heart – not many. talked with many people just angry we have two terrible candidates.
I haven’t a clue what Trump has in his mind, if anything. There was precious little substance to his year and a half long national stage rhetoric. And the only record he has is in the private sector and that reveals no redeeming public interest (and mostly the opposite) and greed and status for himself.
There were occasional glimpses of non-belligerent, non-boor. Which may be more authentic than the stage role he’s developed for the entertainment of the public. But that’s hardly comforting or anything to hang one’s hat on. OTOH, I never expected Obama to be so comfortable in the war arena. As now we’re stuck with this blowhard nincumpoop for likely four years at a minimum, I guess we’ll all find out.
“out of that POS Kirk” I really like the opportunity to edit at caucus99percent.
Obaserver – Zephyr Teachout, a Bernie Sanders Favorite, Loses Upstate Congressional Bid 45% to 55%.
Wasn’t a favorable CD for a candidate like Teachout. She also hasn’t been a long time resident in the community. Carpetbagging and beginning one’s elective office career at the level of US Rep or higher is a tough sell unless the opponent has obvious and negative baggage.