One reason why New Hampshire can continue to claim the first in the nation presidential primary is that a very high percentage of New Hampshire voters turn out of it. Unlike the iowa caucuses where a small percentage show up. (On that measure, the parties shouldn’t honor the expensive (to the campaigns) the first in the nation Iowa caucus results. Iowa could choose to move its caucus to that of the other states that first hold a caucus or switch to a primary and line up with the states that go second.)
For the 2016 presidential primary in Dixville Notch there were nine voters. The results:
Sanders: 4
Trump: 2
Kasich: 3 (the only candidate that made a campaign stop in Dixville Notch)
Last night, turnout in Dixsville Notch was eight voters. One voter was either unable or declined to participate in the general election. (No indication of voter suppression in Dixville Notch.)
The results:
Clinton: 4
Trump: 2
Johnson: 1
Romney: 1 (one voter might have forgotten what year this is)
So, “Never Trump” in Dixville Notch held.
In the Senate race, political party prevailed with Hassan and Ayotte each receiving four votes. As it did in ’12 when Obama and Romney each received five votes. (Obama won in ’08 with fifteen votes.)
Not so in the gubernatorial election (two ticket-splittes).
Van Ostern (D): 2
Sununu (R): 6
Looks as if there were two “Never Trump” voters in the tiny, midnight voting, hamlet of Millsfield. Eighteen Republicans cast primary votes and a total election turnout of twenty-one:
Primary election:
Trump: 3
Cruz: 9
Other GOP: 6
There were three Democratic primary voters and Clinton got all of them.
The general election results:
Clinton: 4
Trump: 16
Sanders: 1
Both Sanders and Clinton gained a “Never Trump” voter in Millsfield.
Governor’s race:
Van Ostern (D): 3
Sununu (R): 18
Perhaps no “Never Trump” in Hart’s Location (has it’s own election results website), but it’s difficult to say because there were two more presidential general election voters and two more that left the presidential election ballot line blank.
Primary results (21 D and 14 R):
Sanders: 12
Clinton: 7
Other Dem: 2
Trump: 4
Kasich: 5
Other GOP: 5
General election results: (37 voters)
Clinton: 17
Trump: 14
Johnson: 3
Sanders: 2
Kasich/Sanders: 1
Senate (39 voters):
Hassan: 21
Ayotte: 17
Day: 1
Governor (39 voters):
Van Ostern (D): 21
Sununu (R): 15
Abramson (I): 3
Can anything close to valid be read into these results? Well, going out on a limb with a non-representative sample of New Hampshire voters as a whole (IOW a guess), while more Republicans than Democrats cast 2016 primary votes, 33,137 more to be precise (a mirror image of the 2008 primary), Trump has barely held onto or failed to capture all of those GOP primary votes. That suggests that statewide, he’s not adding to the total GOP primary vote tally and could easily fall short of the 331 thousand votes that Romney received in ’12 and very possibly the short of McCain’s 316 thousand votes in ’08.
Doesn’t look good for Clinton to match Obama’s ’12 total of 370 thousand votes, but she’s holding or adding better than Trump is.
The surprise is that Hassan is matching or exceeding Clinton’s votes. Might be a surprising good sign for her. We shall see.
Update
12:00 AM election night and surprisingly neither the presidential nor senate race in NH has been called. And now neither will change the outcome of the presidential election or Senate majority, but it would still be nice if Hassan instead of Ayotte were in the Senate.
Update #2
Boston Globe (6:20 PM – November 8, 2016) Kelly Ayotte concedes US Senate race to Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire
The secretary of state’s office showed Hassan with a lead of 1,023 votes out of 738,420.
Still no call on the presidential race in NH. Clinton leads by 1,437 votes.
Boston Globe – the gubernatorial race was called earlier today: GOP’s Sununu beats Democrat Van Ostern in N.H. gubernatorial race Sununu won with 49% of the vote to Van Ostern’s 47%. Surprisingly much closer than it appeared to be shaping up.
If Clinton holds, the midnight NH voter results will have been predictive of three statewide 2016 elections. Not bad for fewer than a hundred people.
Congratulations to Governor Hassan. A harder fought race than probably expected but a sweet win in an otherwise ugly election year for liberal-progressives.
