Notice what happened to the stock market? First the MSM announces that it is crashing pre-market, all the marks panic sell at the bottom, then the market swoops up as the big boys gobble up the cheap stock. Another head fake and the banks win again. What happened to my orders? Oh, the computer never got there. NEVER sell on MSM news. It’s just pump and dump. It’s hard to catch the bottom of the dump. Happens in milliseconds now.
on November 11, 2016 at 11:47 am
There’s a big difference between the “Dow jones forecast” and the “Dow jones average”. One is a prediction and the other is not. At 2:30 AM, no one was thinking clearly. By 11 AM, there was money on the table.
It ain’t over yet. If the banks thought some policy or deficit problem was in the wind they would probably want to buy time and unwind their most perilous trades. We’ll see.
Newsweek’s editor did what any sensible magazine chief would have done by preparing an issue based on a very different US presidential result…
Except 125,000 of the “Madam President” copies were distributed in advance and some of those copies made their way out of the embargo before the whole shipment could be recalled.
Close (enough) — but the Chicago Daily Tribune only did advanced printed and distributed the one outcome – Dewey Defeats Truman. Whereas Newsweek advance printed the cover for the two possible outcomes. Would be interesting to know how much the two canned cover stories varied in length and depth. My guess is that as with the confidence demonstrated by the early distribution of “Madam President,” that more care and attention was given to the “Madam President” canned cover story. Extolling the virtues of her highness. As far as I’m concerned nothing more than “voters choose an ignorant nincumpoop for President” need be said about Trump.
The final tally isn’t in. Both will pick up more votes, but there’s not too much more for them to split.
Hillary is now only short of Obama’s ’12 number by 5.7 million and Trump lags Mitt by a tad less than a million which he could have lost to Johnson.
However, her lower vote total compared to Obama’s may not be the reason she lost. Of that 5.7 million shortfall, 2.3 million is from CA where the outcome of the race was a foregone conclusion and 2.3 million voters that weren’t enthusiastic about voting for HER could safely not vote without handing Trump a CA win.
on November 11, 2016 at 9:11 am
She piled up votes in places where she already had a big majority. CA could go 90% for her, and she’d still get 55 EV. Also NY, IL.
The problem is that she lost WI and MI and PA. The Blue Wall crumbled. Because of rural voters.
The rural voter problem is a LONG-TERM disaster for the Dems. WI is now a red state, due to rural voters. The Senate is MORE republican now than before the election. Some more conservative R senators replaced less conservative R senators as well.
MI and PA are the same.
So, the Dems had better listen to people like me who have been saying this for 2-3 years.
Here’s my prediction: The 2020 election is going to be a shellacking for the Dems. The continued reliance on the Identity politics coalition, the continued promotion of illegals over WWC voters, the lack of any programs which work outside of inner cities, is going to severely damage the D party.
Of course, they could change, but I don’t see that happening. Everything I hear is “double down on white guilt and helping illegals and that shit”.
Welcome to the 40 years in the wilderness. I have manna recipes. You will need them.
…people like me who have been saying this for 2-3 years.
You’re very late to this party. At least a decade late which was at the core of the support for Howard Dean who as DNC chair managed to push back on that trend just enough to flip the House and Senate in 2006 and add to the majority in ’08 and take the WH. The Obama and the party elites sent him packing (not sure they even said thank you) and returned to the Clinton party formulation on how to win elections because he was such a genius (snort).
Unfortunately, as far as can be ascertained from the news no one of any consequence in the party has picked it up. The reported consensus seems to be this guy Keith Ellison, but we all should know my now that the media is full of lies. I know little about him, but it is being said by the (proven to be liars thus never, ever to be trusted) mass media that the few high ranking Dem survivors of this week’s electoral massacre…Sanders, Schumer, Warren…are backing him. He may be the next coming of Moses for all I know, but I fear this is more racial political image hustle than it is anything else.
Guess I shouldn’t have ended my comment on H. Dean with his exit. IMO he took his disappointment in not getting an Obama admin appointment and threw away whatever decency, honesty, and keen political perceptions he had in his effort to get back in the good graces of the party elites. He abased himself so completely that was practical progressive party building, he’s now useless.
Yes, he’s an authentic good guy. The trick is for him to avoid being turned by all the snakes, rats and weasels that he has to interact with in DC.
It pains me to acknowledge that I’ll never again look as favorably on Sherrod Brown as I did before he jumped on the Hillary’s Scoobie Van before it left the campaign staging area.
At the risk of sounding melodramatic, I find the short clip of Ellison chilling in the light of everything that has happened. Dean can go to hell! My ass, Mujahadeen-e -Khalq. How much did the terrorists pay you Mr. Dean? You can also squeal on your colleague Mr. Giuliani’s take if you care to.
I know Ellison. Hes a good guy. I do not know what he’d do organizationally, but hes not an establishment stooge.
on November 13, 2016 at 9:32 am
She lost Michigan and Wisconsin because of low turnout in Wayne and Milwaukee counties: period.
Her margins in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia were equal to those of Obama – the loss appears to be attributable to lower margins in Philly suburbs.
Florida is complicated. What I have noticed:
The counties in the Tampa region:
Pasco, Obama -14K, Clinton -51K
Sarasota, Obama -15K, Clinton -28K
Pinellas, Obama +25K, Clinton -5
Polk, Obama -17K, Clinton -40
The net change in those 4 counties around Tampa is 124K. Trump won Florida by 113K.
Pasco is the growing exurb of Tampa. Sarasota rich retirees. Pinellas is St Pete and Clearwater.
John fucking Kerry carried Pinellas.
And Polk is white cracker land with Lakeland and Plant City.
Florida was lost in the counties surrounding Tampa.
Hillary has informed her donors that Comey is the reason why she lost. Guess they would know better than to accept all the other scapegoats (Putin, Russia, Wikileaks, Assange) that her team was blaming before election day.
It’s all BS. In CA 2.3 million fewer votes were cast for Hillary than Obama in 2012, and yet, her CA winning margin is better than Obama’s.
I know that some time ago, I suggested using the Senate races as a bubble up guide to the presidential race, and an incumbent almost always has some advantage even if very slight. That’s how early on I got FL, CO, OH, and NC right. PA and NH were always too close to call in the Senate races; so went with the incumbent in both, but didn’t consider their margins strong enough to flip either state red. So, I was wrong on that last point in PA.
The total outlier was WI. Only one poll ever had Johnson in the lead, Loras which I discounted because it’s always wrong. There was a factor in play in MI, PA, and WI (and OH, MN, and NH if we bother to look) that appears to have been in operation.
With very few exceptions, all of the mainstream Dems…so-called “progressives” right at the head of the line… are bawling their eyes out over their “mistake.”
Followed by frenzied attempts to blame others for the result.
Duh!!!
Business as usual.
Too bad.
I see no useful opposition forming. Just excuses.
Maybe it’s too early?
Maybe Elizabeth Warren will step into he vacuum left behind by the total failure of the Dem establishment to understand the mood of the country?
Or maybe it’ll be he Donna Brazile/Debbie Wasserman Schultze/John Podesta-type functionaries as they revolving door themselves into self-serving positions of incompetence once again.
Once again.
And once again, again.
Maybe an effective new party will arise, although the financial requirements for effectiveness in this system would seem to militate against that possibility.
And maybe none of this will matter.
Maybe Trump will succeed!!!
Or…maybe he’ll fail so badly that no amount of effort will ever put poor old U.S. Humpty Dumpty together again.
In fact…maybe that has already happened and it’s just time for the sweepers to come in and clean up the ensuing mess.
We shall see.
AG
P.S. I just cannot wait to watch Rudy Giuliani in action again!!! I lived through the Giuliani year sin NYC, and bubbas…you ain’t seen nuthin’yet!!! he was bad enough then…consorting with criminal police and banging his girlfriend in an apartment overlooking the ruins of the World Trade Center in between speeches about how he was saving NYC from the enemy…but over the ensuing years he has added another layer of incompetence. he’s now certifiably non compos mentis. Early onset Alzheimers is Doctor Gilroy’s diagnosis, and he had precious little in the way of brains to lose when he was in his prime.
Who does Elizabeth Warren want? She is probably going to be the dominant face of the Democratic Party if all goes well. Sanders is simply too old and not telegenic enough. Sorry, but there it is. The most telegenic presidential candidate has won every time…w/the possible exception of Jimmy Carter…since JFK/Nixon. Even the famous Mystical Chinese Fortune-Telling Monkey knew that!!!
I went to 2 Bernie rallies and he electrified the crowd. He may not be telegenic, but he doesn’t act or look like a typical politician. That is important to people. His mannerisms and accent were appealing, as well as his message, because they were unique. (These rallies were in small cities, surrounded by rural area and a 1,000 miles southwest of New York City.) Bernie has a “brand” quality and I wouldn’t dismiss it. He’s also an older white guy and understands rural areas.) Dems need several faces to represent the party.
on November 11, 2016 at 11:45 am
Bernie had his moment, and he was important. He may push the party to be more populist, and less elitist, which would be good. He is 75. So don’t look for him in 2020, when he will be 79.
If he had run, we would have heard the word “socialist” and “pie in the sky” and “deficit” until the cows came home. You can’t be a socialist in the US and get elected. NAGAHAP. Period.
I wasn’t thinking of him running for the WH in 2020 due to his age. I just hope he is visible during these next 4 years. As you say, he can pull the party more populist & less elitist. The rural areas, where Bernie had a lot of appeal, later fell for a city slicker because they were convinced that Trump felt their pain. Of course, they were getting conned.
I thought that too, but it looks as if Senator Wall Street from New York City wants it. Not a good image for the Dem party and will result in another self-inflicted wound if it becomes a reality.
Sen Schemer doesn’t just “want the job,” he’s spent years locking up the votes to get it. It’s his turn. Doesn’t matter that at this historical moment in time, he couldn’t be more wrong as the most senior elected Democratic official. It’s his turn. All the big money that has his back says so. It’s his turn. So, all you rubes that pointed out that Hillary was the wrong nominee for 2016, STFU and suck it up. Doubling down on the fail is how the Democratic Party rolls.
Authenticity sells. That means one’s words match one’s deeds over a long period of time. That one’s public and personal word are honest and can be trusted. It means not putting on airs of entitlement and superiority. Not cheating, stealing, etc. for personal enrichment. For a politician, it means doing the job one was hired to –representing the people.
What it doesn’t mean is having private meeting with WS snakes and collecting a $250,000 paycheck on Monday and getting up on a rally stage promising to fight for the common man and woman on Tuesday. It doesn’t mean secret deals with thugs, despots, dictators (both domestic and foreign).
Money can buy a public veneer of authenticity, but veneers have a way of cracking all too soon.
Whatever.
We are off the reservation, now. No telling what will happen.
My guess?
The beginning of the end for the U.S.
Breakup, just like the U.S.S.R.
Sooner rather than later.
Too big. too complicated, too inefficient, too divided.
And too fucking stupid.
All sides.
Before the next presidential election?
Maybe.
It will start before then, at the very least.
That’d be my guess.
Watch.
AG
I think it has happened. The big banks owned both candidates, no way they could lose.
Notice what happened to the stock market? First the MSM announces that it is crashing pre-market, all the marks panic sell at the bottom, then the market swoops up as the big boys gobble up the cheap stock. Another head fake and the banks win again. What happened to my orders? Oh, the computer never got there. NEVER sell on MSM news. It’s just pump and dump. It’s hard to catch the bottom of the dump. Happens in milliseconds now.
There’s a big difference between the “Dow jones forecast” and the “Dow jones average”. One is a prediction and the other is not. At 2:30 AM, no one was thinking clearly. By 11 AM, there was money on the table.
It ain’t over yet. If the banks thought some policy or deficit problem was in the wind they would probably want to buy time and unwind their most perilous trades. We’ll see.
Those that attend religious services monthly or more frequently (49% of the electorate) chose Trump 54% to Clinton 42%. They’re into Armageddon.
The Guardian – Madam President: how Newsweek reported a Clinton victory
Except 125,000 of the “Madam President” copies were distributed in advance and some of those copies made their way out of the embargo before the whole shipment could be recalled.
“Dewey Beats Truman!”
Close (enough) — but the Chicago Daily Tribune only did advanced printed and distributed the one outcome – Dewey Defeats Truman. Whereas Newsweek advance printed the cover for the two possible outcomes. Would be interesting to know how much the two canned cover stories varied in length and depth. My guess is that as with the confidence demonstrated by the early distribution of “Madam President,” that more care and attention was given to the “Madam President” canned cover story. Extolling the virtues of her highness. As far as I’m concerned nothing more than “voters choose an ignorant nincumpoop for President” need be said about Trump.
Trump in fact received 1.2 million fewer votes than Romney. He won because Clinton received 6 million fewer votes than Obama. What a triumph for our clapped out democracy!
The final tally isn’t in. Both will pick up more votes, but there’s not too much more for them to split.
Hillary is now only short of Obama’s ’12 number by 5.7 million and Trump lags Mitt by a tad less than a million which he could have lost to Johnson.
However, her lower vote total compared to Obama’s may not be the reason she lost. Of that 5.7 million shortfall, 2.3 million is from CA where the outcome of the race was a foregone conclusion and 2.3 million voters that weren’t enthusiastic about voting for HER could safely not vote without handing Trump a CA win.
She piled up votes in places where she already had a big majority. CA could go 90% for her, and she’d still get 55 EV. Also NY, IL.
The problem is that she lost WI and MI and PA. The Blue Wall crumbled. Because of rural voters.
The rural voter problem is a LONG-TERM disaster for the Dems. WI is now a red state, due to rural voters. The Senate is MORE republican now than before the election. Some more conservative R senators replaced less conservative R senators as well.
MI and PA are the same.
So, the Dems had better listen to people like me who have been saying this for 2-3 years.
Here’s my prediction: The 2020 election is going to be a shellacking for the Dems. The continued reliance on the Identity politics coalition, the continued promotion of illegals over WWC voters, the lack of any programs which work outside of inner cities, is going to severely damage the D party.
Of course, they could change, but I don’t see that happening. Everything I hear is “double down on white guilt and helping illegals and that shit”.
Welcome to the 40 years in the wilderness. I have manna recipes. You will need them.
…people like me who have been saying this for 2-3 years.
You’re very late to this party. At least a decade late which was at the core of the support for Howard Dean who as DNC chair managed to push back on that trend just enough to flip the House and Senate in 2006 and add to the majority in ’08 and take the WH. The Obama and the party elites sent him packing (not sure they even said thank you) and returned to the Clinton party formulation on how to win elections because he was such a genius (snort).
And…Dean has thrown his hat into the ring again.
Unfortunately, as far as can be ascertained from the news no one of any consequence in the party has picked it up. The reported consensus seems to be this guy Keith Ellison, but we all should know my now that the media is full of lies. I know little about him, but it is being said by the (proven to be liars thus never, ever to be trusted) mass media that the few high ranking Dem survivors of this week’s electoral massacre…Sanders, Schumer, Warren…are backing him. He may be the next coming of Moses for all I know, but I fear this is more racial political image hustle than it is anything else.
We shall see…
Business as usual or a clean slate.
We shall see, soon enough.
AG
Guess I shouldn’t have ended my comment on H. Dean with his exit. IMO he took his disappointment in not getting an Obama admin appointment and threw away whatever decency, honesty, and keen political perceptions he had in his effort to get back in the good graces of the party elites. He abased himself so completely that was practical progressive party building, he’s now useless.
A few seconds of Ellison from July 2015:
Just listen to the media assholes laugh!!!
When was this?
July 2015?
Why…that’s when so many Booman assholes were laughing when I said the same thing!!!
Oh.
What’s that you say?
They all belong to the same entitlement-poisoned white, so-called “educated” middle/upper middle class?
Oh.
Nevermind…
Yore freind…
Emily Litella
P.S. I hear the sound of reality in Ellison’s voice. No shifty-eyed prevarication going on there. I like what I see and hear.
AG
Yes, he’s an authentic good guy. The trick is for him to avoid being turned by all the snakes, rats and weasels that he has to interact with in DC.
It pains me to acknowledge that I’ll never again look as favorably on Sherrod Brown as I did before he jumped on the Hillary’s Scoobie Van before it left the campaign staging area.
At the risk of sounding melodramatic, I find the short clip of Ellison chilling in the light of everything that has happened. Dean can go to hell! My ass, Mujahadeen-e -Khalq. How much did the terrorists pay you Mr. Dean? You can also squeal on your colleague Mr. Giuliani’s take if you care to.
I know Ellison. Hes a good guy. I do not know what he’d do organizationally, but hes not an establishment stooge.
She lost Michigan and Wisconsin because of low turnout in Wayne and Milwaukee counties: period.
Her margins in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia were equal to those of Obama – the loss appears to be attributable to lower margins in Philly suburbs.
Florida is complicated. What I have noticed:
The counties in the Tampa region:
Pasco, Obama -14K, Clinton -51K
Sarasota, Obama -15K, Clinton -28K
Pinellas, Obama +25K, Clinton -5
Polk, Obama -17K, Clinton -40
The net change in those 4 counties around Tampa is 124K. Trump won Florida by 113K.
Pasco is the growing exurb of Tampa. Sarasota rich retirees. Pinellas is St Pete and Clearwater.
John fucking Kerry carried Pinellas.
And Polk is white cracker land with Lakeland and Plant City.
Florida was lost in the counties surrounding Tampa.
Hillary has informed her donors that Comey is the reason why she lost. Guess they would know better than to accept all the other scapegoats (Putin, Russia, Wikileaks, Assange) that her team was blaming before election day.
It’s all BS. In CA 2.3 million fewer votes were cast for Hillary than Obama in 2012, and yet, her CA winning margin is better than Obama’s.
I know that some time ago, I suggested using the Senate races as a bubble up guide to the presidential race, and an incumbent almost always has some advantage even if very slight. That’s how early on I got FL, CO, OH, and NC right. PA and NH were always too close to call in the Senate races; so went with the incumbent in both, but didn’t consider their margins strong enough to flip either state red. So, I was wrong on that last point in PA.
The total outlier was WI. Only one poll ever had Johnson in the lead, Loras which I discounted because it’s always wrong. There was a factor in play in MI, PA, and WI (and OH, MN, and NH if we bother to look) that appears to have been in operation.
It looks like the winner is:
The Trail of Tears!!!
With very few exceptions, all of the mainstream Dems…so-called “progressives” right at the head of the line… are bawling their eyes out over their “mistake.”
Followed by frenzied attempts to blame others for the result.
Duh!!!
Business as usual.
Too bad.
I see no useful opposition forming. Just excuses.
Maybe it’s too early?
Maybe Elizabeth Warren will step into he vacuum left behind by the total failure of the Dem establishment to understand the mood of the country?
Or maybe it’ll be he Donna Brazile/Debbie Wasserman Schultze/John Podesta-type functionaries as they revolving door themselves into self-serving positions of incompetence once again.
Once again.
And once again, again.
Maybe an effective new party will arise, although the financial requirements for effectiveness in this system would seem to militate against that possibility.
And maybe none of this will matter.
Maybe Trump will succeed!!!
Or…maybe he’ll fail so badly that no amount of effort will ever put poor old U.S. Humpty Dumpty together again.
In fact…maybe that has already happened and it’s just time for the sweepers to come in and clean up the ensuing mess.
We shall see.
AG
P.S. I just cannot wait to watch Rudy Giuliani in action again!!! I lived through the Giuliani year sin NYC, and bubbas…you ain’t seen nuthin’yet!!! he was bad enough then…consorting with criminal police and banging his girlfriend in an apartment overlooking the ruins of the World Trade Center in between speeches about how he was saving NYC from the enemy…but over the ensuing years he has added another layer of incompetence. he’s now certifiably non compos mentis. Early onset Alzheimers is Doctor Gilroy’s diagnosis, and he had precious little in the way of brains to lose when he was in his prime.
Watch.
Tell me if I’m wrong.
Big fun!!!
Ah cain’t wait!!!
AG
Sanders wants Ellison for DNC Chair; sounds good to me.
Who does Elizabeth Warren want? She is probably going to be the dominant face of the Democratic Party if all goes well. Sanders is simply too old and not telegenic enough. Sorry, but there it is. The most telegenic presidential candidate has won every time…w/the possible exception of Jimmy Carter…since JFK/Nixon. Even the famous Mystical Chinese Fortune-Telling Monkey knew that!!!
Lord!!!
AG
I went to 2 Bernie rallies and he electrified the crowd. He may not be telegenic, but he doesn’t act or look like a typical politician. That is important to people. His mannerisms and accent were appealing, as well as his message, because they were unique. (These rallies were in small cities, surrounded by rural area and a 1,000 miles southwest of New York City.) Bernie has a “brand” quality and I wouldn’t dismiss it. He’s also an older white guy and understands rural areas.) Dems need several faces to represent the party.
Bernie had his moment, and he was important. He may push the party to be more populist, and less elitist, which would be good. He is 75. So don’t look for him in 2020, when he will be 79.
If he had run, we would have heard the word “socialist” and “pie in the sky” and “deficit” until the cows came home. You can’t be a socialist in the US and get elected. NAGAHAP. Period.
I wasn’t thinking of him running for the WH in 2020 due to his age. I just hope he is visible during these next 4 years. As you say, he can pull the party more populist & less elitist. The rural areas, where Bernie had a lot of appeal, later fell for a city slicker because they were convinced that Trump felt their pain. Of course, they were getting conned.
Should be selected for Senate minority leader.
I thought that too, but it looks as if Senator Wall Street from New York City wants it. Not a good image for the Dem party and will result in another self-inflicted wound if it becomes a reality.
Exactly. Will be interesting to observe; agree it is another opportunity for self-harm.
Sen Schemer doesn’t just “want the job,” he’s spent years locking up the votes to get it. It’s his turn. Doesn’t matter that at this historical moment in time, he couldn’t be more wrong as the most senior elected Democratic official. It’s his turn. All the big money that has his back says so. It’s his turn. So, all you rubes that pointed out that Hillary was the wrong nominee for 2016, STFU and suck it up. Doubling down on the fail is how the Democratic Party rolls.
Authenticity sells. That means one’s words match one’s deeds over a long period of time. That one’s public and personal word are honest and can be trusted. It means not putting on airs of entitlement and superiority. Not cheating, stealing, etc. for personal enrichment. For a politician, it means doing the job one was hired to –representing the people.
What it doesn’t mean is having private meeting with WS snakes and collecting a $250,000 paycheck on Monday and getting up on a rally stage promising to fight for the common man and woman on Tuesday. It doesn’t mean secret deals with thugs, despots, dictators (both domestic and foreign).
Money can buy a public veneer of authenticity, but veneers have a way of cracking all too soon.