A senate simulation based on cook ratings is here:
The model is based on the following:
Lean: 65% chance of winning
Likely: 80%
This is optimistic in my opinion based on the seats in play. I will be making changes to it over time. You should be able to edit the probabilities.
Dismal odds. Worse when considering how many of those Democratic Senators may be vulnerable. Although I’d probably put a few more than ten in the “safe” category. And can foresee a couple of GOP primary battles that could be helpful if the freaking Democrats nominate an actual competitor instead of the designated loser placeholder.
These are supposedly the competitive races with incumbent Democrats:
Florida – Bill Nelson
Indiana – Joe Donnelly
Michigan – Debbie Stabenow
Missouri – Claire McCaskill
Montana – Jon Tester
New Jersey – Bob Menendez
North Dakota – Heidi Heitkamp
Ohio – Sherrod Brown
Pennsylvania – Bob Casey
Virginia – Tim Kaine
West Virginia – Joe Manchin
Wisconsin – Tammy Baldwin
I count 12 there and two possible party switchers — Manchin and Heitkamp.
Sherrod and Baldwin will be savaged in their races, given the current mood of WI and OH.
The rest will find that their base prefers real Republicans.
Of Republicans running, these are already announced:
Arizona – Kelli Ward (Primary Challenger for Jeff Flake)
Ohio – Josh Mandel (R Challenger for Sherrod Brown)
Tennessee – Larry Crim (Primary Challenger for Bob Corker)
Texas – Ted Cruz
If there is no dramatic shakeup in US and Democratic Party politics, you are being too optimistic with the mechanical statistical forecast. A 70-seat Republican majority is what business-as-usual will get us.
Of course, I’ve maintained all along that using Cook’s model of permanently identifiable R and D PVI’s causes Democratic strategists to further narrow the field from the git-go.
Some questions to ask:
What does it take to defeat Roger Wicker in MS and Ted Cruz in TX? How many votes switching changes the Senate in Wyoming, and who is a candidate? Who are progressive primary candidates to shake up Florida, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia? How do you make Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin safe for Democrats again?
Staring at the statistics alone will wind up with an opioid epidemic among Democrats. (Don’t discount the Trump effect and the effect of the Long War on that one.)
To be clear I am using the current Cook ratings.
Based on the ’16 results I believe the following odds are more likely:
Ind 35%
MT 35%
MO 35%
North Dakota 35%
WV 20%
On those odds the Predicted Senate is 57-43, and there is a 5% chance the GOP gets to 50.
I think even THAT is optimistic.
If we assume the GOP takes ever Dem seat in a PVI –5 seat, the predicted Senate becomes 41-59, And the GOP odds of 60+ in the Senate go to 27%.
That gives the GOP AZ, MO, MT, ND, and WV.
The basic point: as long the Democratic Party fails to be competitive in Red States its outlook in the senate is bleak.