The New York Times has an explainer up to help you understand how the Electoral College works and what to expect. It’s really rather inadequate, but it does get the basics correct.
On Monday, 538 people will meet to determine who will be the next president.
These meetings of the Electoral College, convened in every state and the District of Columbia just shy of six weeks after Election Day, have long been little more than a formality.
The important thing here is that the College does not meet as a body. That’s intentional and it’s supposed to make it harder to bribe the Electors. Rather than convening in one place, the College convenes in each of the fifty states and in the District of Columbia.
The Electors are pledged to vote for either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, but they are basically free to cast their votes for anyone. Some states have laws that allow Electors to be fined if they break their pledge, or even for them to be replaced for doing so, but those laws are of dubious constitutionality, to say the least. If an Elector were to challenge their fine or their replacement in court, they would almost assuredly win (and Michael Moore has agreed to pay their fine). This is because the record is clear in both the minutes of the Constitutional Convention and in the writings of the Federalist papers that the Electors were supposed to exercise their own judgment.
Once the vote is tallied in each state, there’s a formal process.
They will then prepare what is called a “certificate of vote” with the results, which is then mailed or delivered via courier to the National Archives, where it becomes part of the nation’s official records, and to Congress…
…On Friday, Jan. 6, at 1 p.m., members of the House and Senate will meet in the House chamber to count those votes. Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., as the departing president of the Senate, is expected to preside over the count, during which every state’s vote is opened and announced in alphabetical order.
Mr. Biden will then declare the winner based on who has the majority of votes — at least 270.
I’m sure that there will be leaks and rumors about any “faithless” Electors who violate their pledge, but we won’t have an official count until the envelopes are opened on January 6th. If there are a substantial number of defectors, we may have a period of uncertainty about whether Trump actually has a majority, although that seems far-fetched at the moment.
There’s also a process for Congress to challenge Electors.
At that point, Mr. Biden will ask if there are any objections, and lawmakers can then challenge either individual electoral votes or state results as a whole. If an elector has chosen to vote against state results, that is the moment when lawmakers can petition to throw that vote out.
Objections must be in writing and signed by at least one member of the House and one member of the Senate. If there are any objections, the House and Senate then immediately split up to consider them and have just two hours to decide whether they support the objection or not.
Both chambers will then reconvene and share their decisions; if both the House and the Senate agree with the objection, then they will throw out the votes in question. But Congress has never sustained an objection to an electoral vote in modern times.
After any and all objections have been resolved, the results are considered final. The next step is to swear in the winner on Jan. 20.
If, against all expectations, Trump does not receive a majority, then there is another elaborate process that the New York Times does not bother to explain.
The Twelfth Amendment requires the House of Representatives to immediately go into session to vote for a president if no candidate for president receives a majority of the electoral votes (since 1964, 270 of the 538 electoral votes).
In this event, the House of Representatives is limited to choosing from among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes for president. Each state delegation votes en bloc – each delegation having a single vote; the District of Columbia does not receive a vote. A candidate must receive an absolute majority of state delegation votes (i.e., at present, a minimum of 26 votes) in order for that candidate to become the President-elect. Additionally, delegations from at least two-thirds of all the states must be present for voting to take place. The House continues balloting until it elects a president.
The House of Representatives has chosen the president only twice: in 1801 under Article II, Section 1, Clause 3 and in 1825 under the Twelfth Amendment.
There is a nearly identical process in place for a contingency in which the vice-president does not get a majority from the Electors, but it takes place in the Senate.
Because there are Republican majorities in each chamber of Congress, and because more states have a majority of Republicans in their congressional delegations than have a majority of Democrats, there is no realistic way for Hillary Clinton to prevail. (As far as I can tell, Maine is currently the only state with an even partisan split in their House delegation). Faithless Electors can be challenged, and any vote of the House would favor a Republican. Since the House is constitutionally precluded from picking anyone who didn’t get any electoral votes, the only alternatives they’ll have to Trump are Clinton and whoever came in third place. If, say, a bloc of the Faithless Electors voted for Mike Pence or Paul Ryan or someone else, they might become the focal point for a revolt against Trump, but surely the Republicans would not choose Clinton despite the fact that she carried the popular vote by nearly three million votes.
I could see a scenario in which, by the time January 6th arrives, the idea of a Trump presidency is such a self-evidently bad idea even to the majority of House Republicans, that they could be convinced to elect Mike Pence or even Paul Ryan in his stead, and that’s really the best reason for Republican members of the Electoral College to act in a faithless way today. With all the uncertainty around Russian interference in the election (a report on which is being prepared by the Intelligence Community and which Congress will investigate in the next term), as well as all the strange concerning behavior of Trump vis-a-vis enemies and allies alike, the Russian connections of several of his key appointments, and the questions surrounding Trump’s intentions to violate the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution, it would be prudent to give the House the option to choose someone other than Trump.
In the vote today, the Electors can influence who the third place winner will be, and therefore they are responsible for providing the (only) alternative to Trump that would be plausibly acceptable to Republicans. That’s a weighty responsibility, and it’s something they should take seriously.
If there aren’t enough faithless Electors to deny Trump a majority, there will be no remedy available on January 6th.
As much as I would love to see an overturn, I am realistic about what will happen. I think the most benefit we Democrats will see is some sort of conflict in the the votes which would at least prove that the people are not supportive of trump and have it on record.
We Dems had to swallow the bitter pill of Bush’s victory-by-hanging chad, and we did it. Imagine what would happen if the Electoral vote overturned a trump victory. The gun-toting maniacs of the Right would storm the streets. There would be riots, and I expect that trump would practically explode.
So it’s another exercise in futility.
I wasn’t born until 1969, but my take on the sixties leads me to believe that the left in this country may be headed for some uncivil disobedience.
Such mass uncivil disobedience ended when the draft ended.
Since the House is constitutionally precluded from picking anyone who didn’t get any electoral votes, the only alternatives they’ll have to Trump are Clinton and whoever came in third place.
And third place was … Gary Johnson?
Putin’s taking care of Aleppo.
Not the popular vote, the electoral college vote, which happens today. We don’t yet know if there were will even be a vote for someone other than Clinton and Trump, so we don’t have a third place option yet.
We don’t know, but it’s virtually guaranteed that there will be other votes. A couple of Clinton electors were threatening to vote against her before the election; with their votes irrelevant now of course they will. Plus, one Trump elector has said he’ll won’t vote for Trump; given how unpopular Trump is among establishment Republicans there will be more although I too would be shocked if we actually got 37.
Clinton actually dropped more EV’s than Trump. Two Texas electors voted for Ron Paul and John Kasich. I don’t know all the details of the Democratic electors but I know Bernie Sanders got 3, I think. Also, Faith Spotted Eagle, a Native American environmental activist and one of the leaders of the NoDAPL protest, received a EV vote from someone in the Washington state delegation.
I thought that was why McMullin focused on Utah. Hoping he could win their EV’s. Trump won that state, so that’s a no go. Besides, McMullin got less votes over all than Jill Stein. And she only got 1/3 of the votes Johnson did.
Ah, but McMullin got 21.5% of the UT vote; and with the combined vote totals for Clinton and McMullin exceeding that for Trump, one UT elector could decide to go with McMullin (or someone else that McMullin appproves of).
I don’t know how Utah’s EV’s are supposed to vote. Some states have laws, untested in court as far as I know, that say the electors must vote for the winner of that state. I heard that 2 Texas electors voted for Ron Paul and John Kasich. The Texas legislature, with the help of their wingnut governor, is already looking to put a stop to that next time.
So the first step is for (at least) 37 pledged Trump electors to refuse to cast a ballot for him, meaning he doesn’t get to 270, and there are thus three candidates for the House to choose from. Presumably this third candidate would be a Repub, say, Ryan.
House Repubs would then all have to agree on the third candidate, because if they split their Repub state delegations between Trump and Ryan, presumably Clinton would win the plurality in states like OH and PA, and she could indeed get the 26 state votes needed. Correct?
Pretty hard to imagine 37 faithless Repub electors agreeing to do this; a shame Der Trumper got such a large number of electoral votes. 4-5 might be doable, 37 impossible.
But thank goodness we have this eminently straightforward and sensible device to save us from the horror of a popular vote for prez! What a country.
Each state only gets one vote, so as long as the GOP doesn’t allow Clinton to win many states where they have a majority, it’s not possible for her to get a majority.
Oops, I forgot there are no Clinton electors in red states like OH and PA; she had to win a state to get ANY electors. Winner take all.
I have to say, I have no idea if an election overturned by the EC followed by a Republican administration appointed by the house would be better or worse than a Trump administration. Both options are incredibly terrible.
But I do think that it’s just not going to happen. The electors are going to confirm Trump, and he’s going to be president. It’s opposing his administration where the rubber meets the road.
Clinton dropped the ball here. Denying Trump the Presidency through the EC was always a very long shot, but the best path for it was for Clinton to ask her electors to vote for another Republican and call on Republican electors to do the same. A specific other Republican would have been best, so there could be motion towards it. The Washington Post loudly suggested this. Crickets from Clinton.
I suspect throwing her weight behind Ryan or someone was too bitter a pill, especially for something unlikely to work. “If the country wants Trump, let them have Trump. That’ll teach ’em.” – that’s how I read her attitude. I think history would have treated her more kindly had she at least made the attempt, and Democratic challenges to the legitimacy of the election (the subtext of the proclamations about Russia) would seem a lot less self-serving.
The Hill — Kissinger calls Trump a ‘phenomenon that foreign countries haven’t seen’
The wily old coot kept his powder dry during the election and didn’t object to Clinton bragging about her close relationship with him. But unlike Bannon and the others seeking a job with Trump, Dr. K understands how to get and maintain power. It’s power and not agendas, partisanship, and public policy that interest him. And that all politicians, including Trump, are suckers for flattery.
The Democrats have dropped the ball for decades by allowing the Republicans to take over so many states.
My guess is an electoral college nullification would probably unleash a Pandora’s box of unforeseen consequences.
Short term there would be chaos. For one thing, it is doubtful that the electoral college would present a viable third choice (the house has to select from the top three electoral vote winners). That would make for a very messy election process in the house. And most likely Trump would call out the goon squads during it.
But future elections would probably be a huge problem- the one state one vote method of selecting a president that the house uses for their election process inherently favors Republicans, who will have complete control of 32 state legislatures. This would give small rural states (aka Republicans) even more of an advantage than the winner take all electoral vote system. And once the election results are overturned once, don’t you think Republicans would be clever enough to figure out how to do this if a Democrat won? Hell, they might even go back to the old ways, and have their electors chosen by the legislature or put in place some such system that only has the veneer of democracy to it.