A Greek, who was a staffer in the office of former Prime Minister Andreas Papandreou, looks at the latest blowback from the Syrian conflict and how Victoria Nuland is trying to shoehorn Erdogan’s Turkey into the EU through stepping of Greek Cypriot interests. Lots of historical back-and-forth of this territory makes arguments from history as difficult as in Israel-Palestine.
Here is the sticking point for Konstatakopoulos:
By virtue of the provisions of the “Cyprus settlement” under consideration now, Turkey is invested after January 12 with many of the rights and powers (and none of the obligations) of the member-states. It will also legalize in Geneva, its military presence and its right to intervene militarily inside the European Union.
The issue for the EU, according to Konstatakopoulos is whether they want and Erdogan with reported ambitions of a new Ottoman Empire with the legitimacy to have a military presence inside the European Union. Other than keeping Erdogan in the harness on eradicating Daesh/ISIS/ISIL, why would the US be pushing this gambit at the last minute?
Here’s the neoconservative thinking in this effort beyond the immediacy of stability in Iraq and Syria.
Such an outcome of the Geneva conference will have enormous strategic consequences for Europe and for the Middle East, transforming the whole “Eastern Meditarranean”, a sea lane of vital importance, into a kind of “Mare Nostrum” of the “Naval Forces”, excluding from there any “foreign” strategic influence (German, Russian or Chinese) and laying one more foundation for encircling Russia from the South with a kind of “security belt” and trying to hinder its access to the “warm seas”, a centuries long dream of British imperial planners. It will constitute the deeper change of the Mediterranean strategic landscape, since the eruption of the so-called Eastern Question or, at least, since the Greek national revolution, two centuries ago.
The process by which through “mediation” the US is intervening is where Greek interests object to giving a fig leaf to legitimizing the Turkish occupation of Cyprus.
Anyway, even if those referendums take place, they will not have much sense, as it will be impossible for the inhabitants to return to the status quo ante. The Republic of Cyprus as we know it will be dead and the Turkish military presence on the island legal. As for the voters they will be in front of the choice to accept after all what is too late to change or risk a chaotic situation, if they refuse it post factum.
The plot thickens as to how the historic agreement will unfold:
But this was until December 1st. That day, Mr. Anastasiades has announced to his citizens that he is accepting the proposal without explaining much why he is doing it, what will be the purpose and the agenda of this strange conference. He did not consult with political parties in the island or the Greek government before announcing his decision. The most absolute confusion was reigning in the island, until December 27, when the leader of the Turkish Cypriots Mr. Akinci, speaking to the Turkish Cypriot media, probably to warn Anastasiades not to deviate from what they had already agreed in secret, explained a little bit what will happen in Geneva.
According to what he said the Republic of Cyprus will not be present in the Geneva conference. All documents there will be signed by the “new Cyprus federation to be constituted”. In that way he revealed the real purpose of the operation, which is no other than to abolish the existing state in Cyprus (we repeat, a member of UN and the EU) and to create a new one, without asking the opinion of the citizens, without electing a Constitutional Assembly and without any authorization from anybody to do that. In that case, we don’t speak even about an operation of regime change. We have to speak about “country change”.
Of course, Russia is working the diplomatic and propaganda mechanisms to avoid this, even negotiating directly with Erdogan. No doubt Putin’s argument might run to ask why all of a sudden does the US want to engineer this sort of a fig leaf for Turkish admission to the EU. And what good after Brexit is the EU relative to Turkish interests anyway?
It is clear that Greek Cypriots see this as detrimental to their interests? Do Turkish Cypriots?
Given the political endorsements of the Kagan clan, I would doubt that Victoria Nuland remains in her position. Whether she will offer a courtesy resignation is something to watch for.
Is there ethnic bigotry in the characterization of the new agreement as being Bosnia-like? Likely there is given the history of the conflict.
What would Nuland’s last move leave behind as the legacy of her tenure as the most visible neoconservative Assistant Secretary of State of European and Eurasian Affairs in history?
Wouldn’t be too sure that this is Nuland‘s last move.
Condi and Gates may have already recommended her to Rex.
So there is likely to be an “except for Russia” brand of neoconservatism?
Talbott, Cheney, Condi, and Gates were aligned with where the GOP was then. If she does show up in a plum career foreign service appointment, that would be very informative about policy in that area. Appointing her as special envoy to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization would be a real expectations pretzel-maker of the sort that Trump seems to like as a sport. How would your Trumpokremlinology read something like that?
They would give the appointment of Nuland to any job in the Trump admin the same level of scrutiny that center right Democrats gave to her appointment in the Obama admin. IOW none. She’s useful to keep up the pressure to encircle Russia on its western front. Don’t mistake the alt-right swooning over macho-Putin for a policy — they swooned over Reagan, GWB, and Trump because they like tough talking old guys that flipped a bird to lefties.
It’s not the swooning of the alt-right that I’m looking at, it’s the potential business deals for Tillerson, Trump, and other in Russia and China. Especially if there are investors wanting to get a piece of the action in China’s One-Belt-One-Road (New Silk Road) infrastructure scheme to link Eurasia with Europe.
China is an oligarchy with now a single authoritarian head, Xi Jinping. Russia is an oligarchy with an established and experienced authoritarian head, Vladimir Putin. The US is an oligarchy with a wanna-be authoritarian head, Donald Trump. It’s just bidness and the art of the deal. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin can control their military. Can Donald Trump when he embarks on new and wildarsed foreign policy directions?
Business profits say Eurasian integration is the new gold rush; neoconservatives say Heartland-Rimland-Eurasia-Oceania and work to ensure it never happens.
My own preference is that the US not only encourage Eurasian integration but connect the US and Russian electric grids to (1) conserve energy, (2) distribute electric load, (3) deter the idea of complete destruction of a society through nuclear weapons. It also would provide lots of jobs, more than most wars, if nations organized a rapid rollout. But that’s just a pipedream.
Who is the “they” that is the first word of your comment? Trump tries to end-run all of the “theys” so as have arbitrary power. And arbitrary power would be having Nuland have to make nice directy with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin after her previous posting. IMHO, it’s the sort of personal sport that commands his attention and interest.
My first sentence was in response to your question. “They” being the Trumpsters.
I expect nothing good out of the Trump administration and a lot more of the same; the haves will get more and the have nots less. A slight change as to which haves do best, but that isn’t different from the shift from GWB to Obama. Less global conflict and less US belligerence, along with a smaller US military footprint, would be a welcome change, but that’s hardly in the DNA of Trumpsters, and apparently has been excised from Democrats as well.
Foresight and effective or constructive preventative action is simply not a strong quality in the human brain. We’re no different from those that once inhabited Easter Island. Except they may have escaped before they starved to death; whereas, today there are no safe havens. So, we’ll keep drilling, mining, chopping and burning until it all gets too damn hot and most, if not all, will die. (Colonizing Mars isn’t a viable alternative.)
And Tillerson will see that no part of the world is left untouched. So Exxon-Mobil will let loose an eventual $500 billion deal with Russia in the Arctic, will be A-OK with the rapid construction of pipelines to supply Russian oil to China and Russian natural gas to Europe just so long as Exxon-Mobil gets a cut. He’ll see that Bechtel and Halliburton get a piece of the action in the One-Belt-One-Road massive infrastructure rollout and any infrastructure rebuilding projects overseas.
I’m arguing that private greed will submerge state imperialism with respect to Russia and by extension to China on land in Eurasia even as the US military pivots to Asia and seeks to protect its dominance of the shipping sea lanes from the Western Pacific to Europe. Russia and China will be jockeying for power within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization even as they cooperate on putting a stake through the sole superpower status of the US (largely gone at this point through two wars of attrition).
The only Republican naysayers I see at the moment are McCain and Graham, who the media love but who are rapidly losing power.
This will tighten the neoconservative grip on the Democrats who will (wrapping themselves in the flag) argue the old American exceptionalist indispensable nation bullcrap instead of getting real.
I actually was jesting with my suggestion that Vicky Nuland be special envoy (and troublemaker within) the SCO. Only a subtle tactic like that looks likely to drive a wedge between Putin and Xi Jinping, which goes to the idea that Trump is being played even as US corporations might be in position to participate in a boom in the last gasp of fossil fuels.
China will rush to dominate the renewables market with Europe the competitor while the US becomes the consumers of choice for fossil fuels and everyone else moves to renewables.
It’s not that I don’t see a march (or a trot) to folly. It’s just that it’s a different sort of folly in which US leaders enrich themselves while they are impoverishing the rest of us and still playing the Great Game.