And also create things anew?
The Irish Independent, the largest circulation daily in Ireland has published an edited version of my Letter to the Editor. At 269 words, it is an edited version of my letter which in turn was a severely summarised version of my 3,000+ word blog A Brexit doomsday scenario. It all reads a bit stark and unqualified, with no supporting argument, but the gist is there. Perhaps it will start a more balanced discussion than what appears in UK dominated media…
Letters to the Editor: Irish Independent (Scroll down page)
Irish confederacy is coming
So far we have only heard one side of the story: what the UK says it wants. The EU response won’t become clear for months – perhaps not until after the French and German elections in May and September.
Talks will break down, and there will be no substantial Brexit agreement, with the UK drifting off into transatlantic space with no lifeline to the EU.
Donald Trump will get involved, and make a complete mess of it, alienating both sides further. A trade war will result. British firms requiring access to the single market will relocate here. We will survive.
Ireland will hardly feature on the geo-political radar except when it refuses to implement a hard Border – effectively retaining the North within the Customs Union.
If Fine Gael tries to implement a hard Border, it will be brought down by FF/Sinn Féin. So we will have a stand-off with the EU. Then a deal will be cobbled together whereby customs controls will be carried out at air and sea ports and the odd random customs check on commercial vehicles within Ireland.
Smuggling on minor roads will be rampant and everyone will turn a blind eye. An Irish solution to a European problem.
Much later, when the North has finally been dragged into the abyss by an economic collapse in the UK, a marginal majority will come to the view that they had better make their peace with the only state that actually cares about them, and a Confederal Ireland within the EU will result. Let’s hope not too many lives and livelihoods will be lost in the meantime.
Frank Schnittger
Blessington, Co Wicklow
Discuss. For those of you who want a more detailed argument and justification, please read A Brexit doomsday scenario.
“An Irish solution to a European problem” is a riff on An Irish solution to an Irish problem, a phrase popularised by then Health Minister, Charlie Haughey, when he introduced a Bill in 1979 to allow contraceptives to be available in Ireland (against the teachings of the Catholic Church), only on medical prescription, “for the purpose of bona fide family planning or adequate medical reasons.”
Physicians and pharmacists who had moral objections would not be obliged to write or fill such prescriptions. Everyone knew that, in practice, everyone would be able to find a doctor and pharmacist to obtain contraceptives if they wanted to, at a price, and the law would increase the monopoly and stranglehold those professions would have on Irish healthcare. (Another important lobby appeased…)
Wikipedia defines the phrase as meaning “any official response to a controversial issue which is timid, half-baked, or expedient, which is an unsatisfactory compromise, or sidesteps the fundamental issue”…
That about covers it, although we sometimes wear such fudged compromises as a badge of honour… A former boss once told me that an ability to “tolerate ambiguity” was an essential quality for any senior manager… when I disagreed with some company decision. In other words, forget about it, move on, it will only be observed or cause a problem in exceptional cases…
Is some sort of Scottish/Irish Confederation at all possible? Maybe not I guess if both are in the EU.
In the age or rfid tagging a border would be far easier to implement than I think you assume though.
you perhaps under-estimate the ingenuity of smugglers, and besides you can bring a car load of stuff across a border provided you can claim it’s for your personal use. 10,000 British troops tries to seal off the 300 mile Irish/N. Ireland border without much success during the Troubles. The border straggles farms, houses etc. and some roads weave in and out several times. Diesel smuggling currently takes place because of price/tax differentials on both sides…