How to Start a War of Civilizations

It’s remarkable how much easier it is to say things about Canada that apply more fully to ourselves. For example, this appears in today’s New York Times in an article about the recent shooting at a mosque in Quebec City that killed six and injured eight.

Canada is a remarkably open society, a legacy of liberal politicians who set the thinly populated country on the path of aggressive multiculturalism decades ago. Last week, Statistics Canada reported that by 2036, nearly half of all Canadians would be immigrants or the children of immigrants — most of them what the country calls “visible minorities,” which means nonwhite.

That rapid transformation is stirring the most conservative elements of the white Canadian population, who see the country as their own, despite the fact that Europeans took the land from a patchwork of indigenous peoples who had long existed there.

The article notes that this sentiment is “moderate by American standards,” which is putting it mildly when you consider that the sentiment in our country is held by the people sitting in the White House.

The concern among Trump officials is not that nonwhites will inspire a violent backlash but that they will become the perpetrators of violence against whites.

Trump’s top advisors on immigration, including chief strategist Steve Bannon and senior advisor Stephen Miller, see themselves as launching a radical experiment to fundamentally transform how the U.S. decides who is allowed into the country and to block a generation of people who, in their view, won’t assimilate into American society…

…The chief architects of Trump’s order, [Steve] Bannon, [Stephen] Miller and National Security Advisor Michael T. Flynn, forged strong bonds during the presidential campaign.

The trio, who make up part of Trump’s inner circle, have a dark view of refugee and immigration flows from majority-Muslim countries, believing that if large numbers of Muslims are allowed to enter the U.S., parts of American cities will begin to replicate disaffected and disenfranchised immigrant neighborhoods in France, Germany and Belgium that have been home to perpetrators of terrorist attacks in Europe in recent years.

Within decades, Americans would have “the kind of large and permanent domestic terror threat that becomes multidimensional and multigenerational and becomes sort of a permanent feature,” one senior administration official argued.

“We don’t want a situation where, 20 to 30 years from now, it’s just like a given thing that on a fairly regular basis there is domestic terror strikes, stores are shut up or that airports have explosive devices planted, or people are mowed down in the street by cars and automobiles and things of that nature,” the official said.

It’s hard to say that these fears aren’t genuinely held by these individuals, although it does seem like a convenient way to rationalize immigration policies that disfavor nonwhites. And, to be clear, I don’t want this country to develop “disaffected and disenfranchised immigrant neighborhoods” that breed domestic unrest and terrorism. If I thought Trump’s policies were the only thing standing between us and that dystopian future, I would consider them more on their merits and constitutionality than on their mean-spiritedness and ethno-religious bigotry.

I also can’t tell the future, so there’s no way for me to assure people that their vision won’t come to pass. It does seem to me, however, that we already have large diverse metropolitan areas with nonwhite majorities and lots of Muslims, including Muslim immigrants both from countries that are on the ban-list and from countries that have actually bred terrorists who have attacked our country and our country’s interests. The populations of these cities have not demonstrated anything like the disaffection we see in some European cities and suburbs.

Obviously, that could change. But if I were to draw up a list of what would change it, it would include much of what the Trump administration is doing and planning to do. Attacking their voting rights, using them as scapegoats and whipping boys for partisan advantage, questioning their patriotism and right to be here, adopting an aggressively pro-settler policy with Israel, having the president talk about the effectiveness of torturing them, having the president recommend collective punishment for terrorist attacks, having the president talk about stealing oil from Muslim-majority countries, and treating Muslims as a second-class category for the purposes of immigration and travel…these are all things that might arouse unrest where almost none exists today.

People are people, and they don’t respond well when they’re ill-treated, disrespected, and their rights are violated.

Clearly, my view on this isn’t unique. Nearly 1,000 State Department employees have signed a letter dissenting from Trump’s immigration policies, and their reasoning is that it will poison our relationships in the Muslim world and increase the threat of terrorism. It seems obvious to me that the best way to poison domestic Muslim relationships and to inspire domestic Muslim unrest is to do things that first accomplish these things abroad. In other words, Trump’s policies and rhetoric seem well-suited to creating a threat that didn’t previously exist, thereby achieving a self-fulfilling prophesy for their dystopian future that would seemingly justify their actions.

In that case, though, their policies will have failed to prevent what they feared and therefore would not be justified in retrospect even if they might look that way.

The Trumpistas sound like they want a war of civilizations but they’ll argue that we’re already in just such a war. Their actions are designed in such a way to erase any debate about the issue. The risk is that they will behave as if we’re in a war until we actually are.

In the meantime, the actual unrest and the actual terrorist threat that’s growing is coming from stirred up conservative elements of the white population (both here and in Canada). The most powerful element of that stirred up population is currently running the Executive Branch of our government.

Twists and Turns In France

The 2017 presidential election. Somewhat more interesting to observe than the 2016 US presidential election.  In that one there was only an early single twist from where it began and a quarter-turn at the end.  The early shape had voters (not) looking forward to another Clinton v. Bush general election.

Then along came Mr. Trump who quickly leapfrogged over Mr. Bush and never gave up his lead from his baseline of 25% as he picked up a share of the support for the other candidates as they dropped by the wayside and then out.

It was easier for Mrs. Clinton than for Mr. Bush.  In 2016, a majority of Democrats preferred to stick with the old guard.  Perhaps a majority of the general electorate as well, except for but in a few key pockets.  So, that was the quarter-turn at the end.  After a seemingly interminable eighteen-month election cycle.

Approximately nine months ago, French voters were (not) looking forward to a rematch of their 2012 presidential election: Hollande v. Sarkozy.  With the same major “also rans” in the first round.  One modification.  The French Republican political party had been reconstituted from UMP in 2012 to LR.  I haven’t the vaguest idea what such a political party name rebranding means to French voters, but UMP had itself been a rebranding.

2012 general election – 1st round – (US-centric descriptors):
28.6% – PS/PRG – Hollande – (socialist)
27.2% – UMP – Sarkozy – (republican)
17.9% – FN – Le Pen – (vichy)
11.1% – FG – Mélenchon – (far left)
9.1% – MoDem – Bayrou- (center ???)
6.1% – Greens and others

Run-off:
Hollande 51.6%
Sarkozy 48.4%

A month before the first round, an Ipsos poll had it at:
28% Hollande
27.5% Sarkozy
16% LePen
13% Mélenchon
11.5% Bayrou
4% other

So, only minor jockeying among voters in the last few weeks.

Back to 2017.  In August, a young member of Hollande’s government, Macron, resigned and started his own party (EM) and was given no chance.  With his public approval numbers approaching zero, Hollande chose not to run for re-election.  Sarkozy’s numbers within his party also began to drop.  Only the LR and PS/PRG nominees had yet to be chosen, but there were leading candidates in both.  The shape (order) of the general election began to look like this:

FN – LePen
LR – Juppé  (Sarkozy possible)
EM – Macron
FG – Mélenchon
PS/PRG – Valls
MoDem – Bayrou

Then a darkish horse emerged in the LR primary, Fillon, and Juppe finished second with Sarkozy in third place.  Fillon was commanding, 66.5%, in the run-off against Juppé.  Social “conservatism” won.

The PS/PRG primary elections were held two months later.  Another upset as the candidate polling in third place, Hamon, won both the first and second rounds.  Hamon is from the left wing of the Socialist party.

One more change.  MoDem, Bayrou, is still on the fence as whether or not to contest this election.  The polling that has included MoDem puts them at about 5% in sixth place.

At of this point, the general election first round looks like this:
25% – FN – LePen
22% – LR – Fillon
21% – EM – Macron
15% – PS/PRG – Hamon
10% – FG – Mélenchon
3.5% -DLF – Dupont-Aignan (allied with UK IP – Farage in last election)

As Homan only secured the nomination on Sunday, the polling may be out of date. Another new wrinkle that’s only four days old is Penelopegate.  Fillon’s wife has been earning a public salary (total €600,000) for what appears to have been a fake job.  Now there’s more: François Fillon faces fresh claims over paying wife and children .


On Tuesday, French anti-corruption police took the unusual step of searching offices in the Assemblée National after requesting authorisation from the speaker of the lower house.

Investigators reportedly seized documents from the archives and from Fillon’s parliamentary office. France Inter radio suggested detectives were looking for Mrs Fillon’s employment contracts.

The raids came after police officers questioned the couple separately for five hours on Monday afternoon as part of a preliminary inquiry into alleged fraud and the misappropriation of public funds.

Is this anything social “conservatives” mind when their guy does it?  If French social “conservatives” do, who do they flock to?  Or if they mind enough, whatever will Fillon and the LR do?

Le Pen has her own financial improprieties:

…the EU ordered her to refund €300,000 paid to European parliament aides – one of them her chief bodyguard – who, it is alleged, were employed on Front National party business. Le Pen has denied wrongdoing, but European officials have threatened to cut her monthly MEP’s salary by half and halt other allowances if she does not pay back the money. The Paris prosecutors office opened a fraud investigation at the European parliament’s request in December.

A couple of other notes.  Younger and for lack of a better description, more stylish voters have put Macron in this race.  Not clear if they understand the import of this:

He left [as an Inspector of Finances in the French Ministry of Economics in 2008]  to work as an investment banker at Rothschild & Cie Banque. While at Rothschild, he closed a high-profile deal between Nestlé and Pfizer, which made him a millionaire.

IOW, Macron is “business friendly.”

What appears to have helped Hamon were the debates, and he became stronger in the second and third ones.  He won the first round election with 36% and the run-off with 58.7%.  And apparently, some Socialist Party MPs are really pissed. (Did they overlook the polls showing Valls in single digits for the general election?)  The hill Hamon has to climb just got steeper.