As I read here at Booman Tribune defenses of Russian and Putin against claims of hacking and trying to manipulate elections–and I will not be promoting those claims here–one thing that has struck me is what seems to be a rather uncritical acceptance of Russian nationalist stances, coupled with an unwillingness to consider that Russia’s neighbors might have their own world views that are not a priori wrong just because they don’t mesh with the Russian stance. Maybe, just maybe, Russia’s neighbors have legitimate historically based reasons to be concerned with their much larger neighbor’s intentions.
It would be interesting to consider how Russia came to be a continental power by conquering and largely assimilating dozens of other peoples–I think we can agree this was an imperialist project, and Russia’s rulers certainly thought so, too–but instead, let’s just look at Russia’s neighbors to the west. Take the case of Poland, for example. Poland was the great power of central and eastern Europe in the medieval era, but by the 18th century, it was being carved up and finally extinguished altogether by Austria, Prussia and Russia. The Polish state was recreated out of the ashes of World War I, then was dismembered again by Germany and the USSR as part of the latter two countries’ non-aggression pact. Well–nonaggression towards each other, nominally. The eastern border of the present Polish state largely conforms to the line dividing the territories gobbled up by German and Soviet (non)aggression in 1939. The Polish territory seized by the Soviet Union in 1939 was tacked on to the Belarusian and Ukrainian SSRs, and the Poles who happened to live there were eventually expelled for the most part–sent packing to the west. And as we all know, post-WW II Poland was a Soviet client state host to Soviet military bases. Given that history, gosh, the idea that post-Communist Poland might want allies protecting it from Russia–after close to three centuries of being dominated by Russia–seems pretty rational and reasonable.
In other words, the unforgivable (to some FP commenters) act of Poland joining NATO–this so-called aggressive act aimed at “encircling” Russia–was entirely sensible from the Polish perspective.
A similar discussion applies to the Baltic States, but with an additional twist: unlike Poland, the Baltic States were annexed to the USSR and henceforth colonized: ethnic Russians were sent to live in the Baltic States as part of an overall program of Russification. Upwards of 25% of the population of the Baltic States at the time of the Soviet collapse were Russian colonists. If you’re Lithuanian, Latvian or Estonian and wish not to become subject to Russian whims again, seeking a powerful protector makes a world of sense. Joining NATO made a world of sense. Were the Baltic States thereby “encircling” Russia?
There can be more than one historical narrative. We all know that the Mexican historical narrative about the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo isn’t the same as the American one. Well, the same dynamic exists in eastern Europe.
I’m not writing to tell you that one historical narrative about Poland, say, is absolutely correct and on the side of the angels, while the other is wrong and on the side of dark forces. What I am saying, however, is that if you’re uncritically accepting the Russian narrative, you really ought to think more expansively.
Oh, Russia most definitely act imperialistic towards its neighbours. And small states seeking foreign protection as vassals in another empire is nothing new. Neither is empires protecting the right of small states to leave their current overlords and join their empire insted, it is just that it has nothing to do with the rights of small states and everything to do with the small states being vassals to another empire. Empires rarely grant their own vassals the right to freely leave, because once a vassals leave they seize to be empires.
The way I see it, the current situation was set up when the Soviet empire went down. There was a moment when history could have gone in another way when Gorbachev negotiated the terms of letting East Germany go in exchange for NATO nto expanding. Had west taken that opportunity and explored Gorbachev’s vision of a collective security for Europe that included the Soviet union, things would have been different. But that did not happen, so here we are. A resurgent Russia is meeting the boundaries of the expanded US empire.
Given that we have two empires butting heads, the best option for smaller states is a) avoiding war and b) maintaining as much independence from imperial overlords as possible. Independence balancing the empires against each other, without it coming to open conflict is hard, and perhaps impossible unless both empires accept that border states are useful. Useful for trade, but also to avoid tensions that could escalate to open war between empires, wars which with todays nuclear arsenals can not be won. During the Cold war, for example Sweden, Finland, Yugoslavia and Afghanistan were such border states, trading with both sides and maintaining different degrees of indepedence.
So with that in mind, the struggle in Ukraine from at least 2004 (when Kuchma’s second term as president ended) including sponsoring of candidates and revolutions looks less like Ukraine chosing a way then US and Russia battling it out over Ukraine.
The EU-Ukraine trade deal makes Ukraine subservient to the EU, in that Ukraine gets to adopt EU legislation but not really influence it. There is filler stuff about EU-Ukraining summits, where I guess Ukraines leaders will et to ask “how high?” when the EU leaders says “jump!” This means Ukraine would firmly enter the western sphere. Russia obviously does not want that and won the struggle within the established political realm, so West sponsored revolts in Western Ukraine and condemned attempts from the Ukrainian state at putting the down. This lead to the overthrow of the elected president and parliament, so then Russia sponsored revolts in Eastern Ukraine and condemned attempts from the Ukrainian state at putting the down. So West bankrolled a civil war through the IMF, winning a double win as future Ukrainian governments will be saddled with that debt. And Russia annexed Crimea, etc etc.
Now, what to do as civilians out of power? Given that there is two nuclear empire powers with world-ending arsenals facing of, both backing down would be a good start. So if we can push for that it is good. Then, given that neither empire can grab Ukraine, a better outcome would be a more neutral Ukraine that can trade with both sides. This would mean scrapping the current EU-Ukraine deal and the proposed Russia-Ukraine deal and instead figure out a EU-Ukraine-Russia deal. Hard to push for, given how trade deals are routinely negotiated behind closed doors. Do you have any other ideas?
Thanks for all that. Yes, I recognize that the de facto situation is that relatively small states like the Baltic states wound up seeking protection from NATO and effectively became vassals, or client states, in certain regards, such as “security” policy, but they pursue their own domestic agendas as they wish. It’s a funny situation and hardly the best of all desired options, but is it the best of all possibilities? I’d say the Baltic states are a lot better off than when they were being colonized by Russia. And nobody should have any illusion that the Balts wanted to be part of the USSR: one of the flashpoints for the disintegration of the USSR, if I recall correctly, was the use of force by the Red Army to put down demonstrations in Lithuania calling for independence.
I think there is a great tension here between the right of self-determination, which supposedly is a good thing, and the great-power desire for some sort of stability/equilibrium, which is also supposedly a good thing. Even people promoting the “Russia is scared of encirclement” narrative would–I think, I hope–agree that the Baltic states (as an example) are not obliged to be forced into an accommodation with Russia.
It’s ironic that the two great nuclear powers both like to promote the idea that they face numerous threats.
Booman Tribune ~ Russia, Colonialism, Imperialism
Yes, I agree for the majority. I think they are also fairly safe, because the Russian minorities are more useful as diversions then something Russia actually would go to war for.
Long term, NATO dependent on the US might be a poor defense. There was ample speculation in European media during the fall that a Trump win would mean US pulls out of NATO and Russia invades the Baltic states. Now, that has not happened, but given the power difference and the Baltic states limited means of defense it could happen sometime in the future. A European security order based on the more immediate interests of neighbours, stronger defense in the Baltic states (US led NATO prefers small states to specialise for joint missions rather then build all around defense in their own territory) and last but not least a better relationship with Russia would be better all around.
To undermine the use of Russian minorities in Russian propaganda and standard humanitarian reasons, I think they should treat their Russian speaking minorities better. Hence my qualifier of the majority of the population.
Booman Tribune ~ Russia, Colonialism, Imperialism
Yes, I agree, it is tricky.
It is not that self-determination isn’t a good thing, it is that it is so easily hi-jacked for propaganda purposes. I just think one should be suspicious when a great power markets self-determination of people in other great powers spheres. In particular, the ability to come the rescue of small states threatened by other great powers easily becomes an argument for maintaining the empire. But maintaining the empire demands keeping small states in control in the power sphere of the empire.
Booman Tribune ~ Russia, Colonialism, Imperialism
The empires always needs opponents. Goldstein is always lurking just beyond grasp. Otherwise people might demand more resources for butter and less for guns.
You know, it’s always amusing to me when certain segments of the left make posts like this.
The amount of ‘stuff’ (i.e. history, politics, ethics, morals, and other thing) that you skip over is just astounding.
Like this:
The shear amount of glossing over that is inherent in that one sentence is mind boggling.
But I’ll try to break just some of it down.
So what is really getting glossed over to the point of absurdity is that the “established political realm” of Ukraine, a legally separate nation-state from Russia, was defined, maintained, and enforced both legally and illegally by Russia. It’s not like this was a level playing field and Russia just happened to win by skill and better logical and rational arguments.
Moving On:
Why you make it sound as if the ‘revolts’ were a pure product of the West and Ukrainians had absolutely nothing to do with it what so ever. I mean the tens of thousands of
protesters‘Rebels’ were just sitting around minding their own business while this went down right up until ol’Uncle Sam came along and paid them to goprotestrebel against the lawfully elected Russian Government of Ukraine.Funny, I seem to remember Oui and your group of liberals joining right in with most of us here on the Tribune by condemning the putting down of the Occupy
Protests‘Rebellion’ when that happened. Was there a memo I missed somewhere that says it’s only a validprotestrebellion if it’s against US Elites and Oligarchs?And really it gets worse for your position the more anyone with a memory and at least a half assed developed logical system digs into your statement here.
Your conclusion is fairly reasonable, but the way you appear to get there is most nicely described as irrational, though there are some other choice words one could use as well.
Booman Tribune ~ Comments ~ Russia, Colonialism, Imperialism
You mean when I reference almost thirty years of political histry in a blog-comment? I would say that is inherent to the format.
Booman Tribune ~ Russia, Colonialism, Imperialism
No, it is not a level playing field. It never is. My larger point is that the established political realm in smaller states are always dependent on their relations to great powers.
Booman Tribune ~ Russia, Colonialism, Imperialism
You, know if you wanted to know if I thought so, you could just have asked. The answer is I do not.
Booman Tribune ~ Russia, Colonialism, Imperialism
You seem to be reading stuff into what I wrote that isn’t there. I wasn’t here during the time you reference, I am not Oui and though we both live in Europe we don’t even live in the same European country.
For the record, I generally root for the rebels in the hope of better outcomes. Civil war is however a notoriously bad outcome, one that has its roots both in the meddling by outside powers and the refusal of compromise. However, the focus of my comment was not who I root for, but how great powers act and what good outcomes can be foud for small states.
It was close to 50% in Latvia and Estonian big cities, but it was just 8% in Lithuania (with Poles 8% as well).
Population numbers tell a contrarian story:
Politically and media-wise, there is no opposition to lambasting anything Russian (or Soviet) in the Baltic countries. Ukraine is copying the model.
The Baltic governments keep a steady course for economic and energetic independence from Russia. If the global economy, resource markets will become tight, that course will be ineffective or deeply problematic.
I am not optimistic that escalation of Cold War-ish tensions is good for the Baltic countries. That pushes the standard of “might makes right” — and Russia will be ready to make use of it. The West will only care so much, really.
SO, do those downward trends mostly reflect ethnic Russian out-migration? I actually have a neighbor who is one of those migrants: an ethnic Russian from Estonia.
Definitely not in Lithuania. Among the proles there, the emigration is called “evacuation”.
The following happened 2-4 weeks B.T. (i.e., Before Trump):
Anti-emigration party storms to victory in Lithuania
Economically, they are leftish — though they still have to show it in legislature. Yet they are “culturally conservative” – trying to restrict IVF, pushing religion to schools, etc.
They were met with a lot of disdain, trolling from the established parties and the media. I counted a few allusions to the Nazis towards them in the first days.
Their governing circus is much more subdued than Trump’s. But there are resemblances in the populist appeal, surprise and (presumably) hostile reaction from much of the establishment.
I don’t know, but I do know that austerity has hit Lithuania hard.
Here is something I found on a official-looking web page.
Top 10 destinations | Migracija Skaičiais