One of the last things I wrote before the election was on how third parties tend to collapse before elections. It is something that has injected volatility late in elections before, and in retrospect I have should have taken it more seriously.
Anyway, here is the summary of how the late vote broke via Patrick Ruffiani.
Johnson and Stein held on to about half of their total vote (though this conflicts a little with the pre-election polling). Those who deserted Johnson broke for Trump by about 50-40, while those who deserted Stein broke 3-1 for Clinton.
About 36% of Johnson and Stein voters were undecided about the House races – perhaps suggesting that a good percentage of their voters were never reachable.
An interesting comparison on how that tracks to the House vote.
I always assumed that because the third party vote tended to be young that is would break for Clinton. It didn’t happen to nearly the extent I thought it would.
