You know, the Republicans are going to have to raise the debt ceiling, and this time they’re going to have provide the votes to do it. It isn’t an option. Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sent a letter to Speaker of the House Paul Ryan explaining that he was already suffering from a shortage of funds:
Mnuchin, in a letter to Ryan, said Treasury was now suspending the sale of certain state and local securities, a practice the federal government normally performs to assist with tax policies. Treasury will soon likely suspend payments to certain pension funds as it tries to delay, as long as possible, falling behind on other payments. Eventually, though, it will run out of options and not have enough money to pay its bills.
“As I said in my confirmation hearing, honoring the full faith and credit of our outstanding debt is a critical commitment,” Mnuchin wrote to Ryan. “I encourage Congress to raise the debt limit at the first opportunity so we can proceed with our joint priorities.”
It’s always difficult to forecast precisely, but budget experts expect that sometime in August or September the government will begin defaulting on payments. That gives Congress a window of time to authorize more borrowing, but that doesn’t mean that they’ll easily find the votes they’ll need. Of course, the Democrats could provide an assist by giving the Republican leaders a little support, but they have no incentive to do so other than a generic interest in not seeing our government lose its credit rating and the resulting global economic chaos that would result. They’re less willing to treat the full faith and credit of the United States as a hostage than the lunatics in the Republican Party, so there’s a chance that they can be convinced to come to the rescue.
But, they obviously should exact concessions if they’re expected to play that role.
We’ll have to see what the Congressional Budget Office has to say about the impact of the Republicans’ health care bill, but that’s only the beginning of their plans to slash revenues and increase spending. Trump wants to spend a trillion dollars on infrastructure and he’s hoping to sign a tax reform bill that will dramatically reduce how much money the government collects from corporations and high income citizens. He’s also looking to spend tens of billions more on defense, which probably will not be fully offset by gutting the Coast Guard, State Department and Environmental Protection Agency.
Deficit spending should spike in much the same way it spiked under Reagan and Bush the Younger, meaning that the debt ceiling will be a recurring problem.
The Democrats have very little leverage to influence policy or stop legislation they don’t like, and so far they aren’t being consulted or asked to provide support for any of Trump’s policies.
It’s an odd thing that Trump ran successfully by trashing the Republican Establishment but then decided to govern in a way that is completely dependent on them. The Democrats are correct to respond with unflinching resistance, but they should at least explore if the possible inability of the Republicans to raise the debt ceiling on their own will present them with an opportunity to have a say on policy. They have leverage, so the question is really what they can achieve with that leverage.
It could be as simple as helping craft an infrastructure plan that isn’t a giant looting scheme or something more mundane like a slate of nominees placed on bipartisan commissions. Whatever it is, it shouldn’t come cheap. The Democratic leadership needs to figure out what their “ask” will be. And, needless to say, if Mitch McConnell eliminates the filibuster for Supreme Court judges, the Democrats should be willing to let the world burn before they give any votes to raise the debt ceiling.
Not a single vote. Unless they agree to do something decent, like raise the social security tax income limit from the current level to say, 250k. Then maybe one vote. Otherwise, fuck them.
This is new for you…
“the Democrats should be willing to let the world burn before they give any votes to raise the debt ceiling”
but if the GOP blows up the filibuster on Supreme Court judges, I guess what the hell.
In the meantime, what’s everybody doing locally to resist or change the Democratic Party…besides virtual activism?
I’m whipping out my green lantern and leading with leadership. How about you?
The post-election activity of the Democratic Party (moving further right and embedding Wall street even more) show that the Democratic Party is irredeemable and should join the Whigs in the ashcan of history.
I didn’t think Davis X had a sockpuppet?
LOL! I thought the same thing when I read his comment.
http://www.boomantribune.com/comments/2017/3/6/185655/8899/24#24
I have been to two party meetings post the New Year. Much better attended than in the past. Back home attendance at county and town committee meetings has been very good. The Tampa Party meeting was overflowing. The Florida Progressive Caucus has been growing and setting up new chapters in counties in Florida – many in the very areas where Florida was lost.
In the past what happens is people show up and come away thinking it looks like amateur hour. In 1981 and 1982 there was a similar reaction, and it lost steam over time. Part of the reason is it is hard to know how to direct the energy to good use.
Party meetings are pretty dull for most the part. Nuts and bolts organizing is pretty boring. There is obviously a lot of energy – some of it from people shocked we lost and want to do something.
But the elections are over 18 months away. Between now and the spring it is mostly about building lists and holding events that raise visibility and make people feel connected.
Interest groups drive activism more than the Party does in my experience. All of those groups report a surge in money and membership. My friend runs LCV in NH – nationally he tells me they raised an enormous sum of money in the last two months. LCV built a field organization in 2014 and kept it in tact through 2016. They had offices in most battle ground states and had metrics for voter contacts that were ambitious. If you multiply what they did with the work other groups have done you have to be impressed by how much paid staff field work some of the groups have done. These staff are permanent – they hold events, build lists and raise money for local candidates.
So good things are happening. There was definitely a lack of volunteer enthusiasm in 2016 that hopefully is gone.
But everyone I know who has gone walks away thinking the same thing: where were these people in October?
I have yet to hear any answer other than this: they all thought she was going to win.
I think I might actually be rooting for a default, since I want the Trump administration to be the most disastrous administration in history.
I fully expect a 100+ comment thread here now that you stopped talking about “Russia.”
Yes, Booman had finally bowed down to the ineffable wisdom of The Sage of Rio de Janeiro and his acolytes.
Yes, especially since it’s such a great lead-in for bashing the Democratic Party.
Russia is still on my mind. I think we have a den of treasonous asses. But this is a nice break, I agree.
I’m searching for the right words here. You know the first thing that comes to mind. Oh I got it: fuck them assholes.
Whatever the Democrats demand, it should be a political gimme not a policy one. Normally, that would not be true, but the Democrats have to leverage this into political power. Best would be repeal of voter suppression laws, but I don’t know if that is possible at the federal level. What Democrats get has to be power for Democrats, not just somewhat better policy, which will redound to Republican credit. We cannot afford to save them from themselves.
bento’s got an worthwhile point here.
Too bad you have to actually govern when you’re in the majority, you clowns. A lot easier to put party before country and light shit on fire when your party isn’t completely in charge of the country.
It’s possible that the Republican President is the only person in the country bad enough at negotiation to actually give the Democrats a concession for doing something they will absolutely do in any case, but I doubt it.
He’s got enough animal cunning, perhaps, to try to extract concessions from the Dems in exchange for asking the Republicans to raise the debt ceiling. No, it makes no sense. So what? Try to blame the Dems. If that doesn’t work, watch the world burn. A planet on fire proves the Republican President’s vision of a dystopian nightmare world (shared by his base), and gives him cause to push authoritarian nationalism that much harder.
Win-win, if you’re evil.
I’m probably going to be in the minority here. I thought that republicans should vote to raise the debt ceiling under Obama because it is the right thing to do, and I think that democrats should vote to raise the debt ceiling under Trump because it is the right thing to do.
Some Republicans had to vote to raise the debt ceiling from 2010-2016. Because they were in the majority. They set the legislative agenda. It was their responsibility to pass budgets and their responsibility to pay the bills. Without their votes the government would default and calamity would ensue. In that position playing political games with the full faith and credit of the US government is unconscionable.
They were not obligated to provide a single vote from 2008-2010 as the Democrats had the ability to keep the lights on regardless. Thus they were free to symbolically protest by voting against raising the debt ceiling or anything else they so chose. That’s the exact situation the Democrats are in now. They have no obligation to help the Republicans without concessions because the Republicans can do it themselves.
If the Republicans are incapable of governing in the majority the Democrats have every right to expect concessions in return for their assistance. The Republicans would be conceding that they need to form a coalition between their rational members and the Democrats just to keep the government operating, and forming that coalition will require some incentive for the minority partner to participate.
Excellent distillation.
The “right” thing to do is to eliminate the stupid debt ceiling. Once you have a liability as in what congress approved to spend, there is no further approval needed, unless you are an asshole and want to blackmail the country – – which these Neanderthals did. And now they want us to help them out of a bind? no thanks.
This.
Hmm, don’t think Schumer’s nominees will be a credible balance to Republican policy if talk about his first is any indicator. Hantman at FTC.
“Schumer can lay out a Democratic governing agenda,” said Matt Stoller, a fellow at the Open Markets program at the New America Foundation (and Intercept contributor). “This is how you can tell whether the Democrats are serious.”
Repeals of:
Deferral of tax deduction of overseas income
Tax deductions for shipping jobs overseas
“Domestic production” tax deduction
Last-in/first-out accounting as allowable inventory method
Punitive damages tax deduction (“Punitive” should mean punitive)
All general and industry-specific accelerated depreciation in computing deductions
Corporate jet deduction
“Title passage rule” on income in foreign countries
Deferred taxes on income earned by financial firms on certain income from overseas
Alcohol fuel credit (no longer environmentally sensible)
“Carried interest” calculations used by hedge fund managers
Drilling expense writeoffs
Oil depletion allowance
Place an income cap on all agricultural subsidies that let’s only small individual farm families get a subsidy
Place a 1% tax on all campaign donations and paid by the candidate. Unless you have a way of capturing that income at its source.
Place a 5% tax on all corporate lobbying.
Tax oil and minerals revenue with a 10% surcharge
Tax gaming revenues with a 10% surcharge
Cancel the F-35 fighter jet completely.
Expire copyrights and patents after 35 years
Expire all copyrights and patents of deceased individuals and corporate patents filed more than 50 years ago
Strengthen voting rights powers to require breaking of gerrymanders even if parties like them as they are
Just how big is this for Trump and the Republican Congress?
Do the Democrats have the guts to raise revenue and loosen up some of the strings of monopoly?
In other words: fuck them assholes.
Excellent list. I am saving it. Maybe share it with Pelosi and Schumer? Seriously, do. We might get something worthwhile out of the negotiation, both politically and policy wise.
How about a billionaires tax, and increased inheritance taxes etc. to pay for any increase in the Debt ceiling? In other words, for every Billion raise in the ceiling, at least half a billion in increased taxes on the rich.
When the shoe was on the other foot, Democrats said that Republicans shouldn’t play politics on the debt ceiling, but behave like statesmen, putting the country first.
What price statesmanship now?
Because the Republicans controlled the Congress. How is this difficult to understand? They still control the Congress. That’s why their demands were so radical: they controlled Congress, yet demanded concessions anyway.
Ah! It’s about power and control! Not morality at all. You have to forgive me, I left DC in 1979. The stench has worn off.
Yes, that’s what politics is. It’s why Democrats lose. I like being in power because then I get to enact my political program, not to hold onto it for the sake of power.
Now that is a comment that needs repeating over and over. Power or influence in and of itself is not something to be avoided or feared. It’s to be used in order to get what we want or need done, rather than be dependent upon or ignored (or worse) by those who do hold power. The point is to use that power to make existence a bit better for as many as possible than would have happened otherwise. Having no influence, I suppose, can give one the luxury of demanding purity. Personally, I find that unsatisfying. Would rather be in a position to not only suggest solutions, but know that they have some hope of being enacted (perhaps imperfectly, and perhaps requiring some compromises). So it goes.
But your pony.
It would seem that the power is an end in itself and policy just a means to power not an end in itself.
Yes, because I want a “pony”. In fact, I want a whole herd of ponies. But then I’m an evil old white man. Thanks for confirming my DemExit from a party that only wants my vote and to use me as a whipping boy.
That’s the rub isn’t it: When you get power what do you do with it, and what do you have to promise to get it to begin with.
I am unclear what part of that you think the Democrats do not understand.
A lot of Dems pooh-pooh real solutions because it might endanger their political power, waffling along with bandaids. In reality, any challenge to the status who is going to seriously threaten your power. You need to use it to push actual political programs, not trimming edges. Democrats also do not expand their power in the same manner Republicans do. Republicans ruthlessly expand voter ID, reduce voting, kill unions. They do these things first.
No, it’s about responsibility. The party with control of the House has the responsibility to pay the bills. The other party cannot. If the first party cannot because they are insufficiently unified and some of the members are seriously irresponsible, the have to provide a reason for some from the other party to support their budget, which is what is being paid out here: the Republican’s budget, not the Democrrat’s budget, not a joint budget.
My offerings distinctly play politics with the Republicans’ miserable situation.
The 2010 episode had to do with forcing cuts in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid in the name of balancing the budget. That motive was a lie.
My motive is choosing items that would reduce the deficit by increasing revenue and cutting spending.
Republican immorality had to do with the lie about “entitlements”, the lie about the domestic spending running up the deficit, and the refusal to raise revenues.
I could say it again. But here is what I want. Repeal the silly debt limit law in its entirety or fuck them assholes.
I couldn’t give a nit about reducing the deficit. It is meaningless.
There is no reason to trust the donald or the GOP. What ever they want to trade for their votes, it needs to be in the bill that raises the debt limit…and they get to stand behind the donald when he signs it. In other words…show no mercy.
The only reason to do this is to make Grover Norquist cry.
Well now, that’s something that tickles my fancy. But no.
Let’s start with the easy stuff.
About as odd as ‘family values’ folks voting for a pussy grabber.
Everybody on all sides of Trump supporters know they are lying. They know they are lying all the time. They know they are lying to you, but they are always in the tribe. Always.
Trump makes deals based on the line of least resistance, so yes, he’s letting the Republican establishment do the heavy lifting.
The Dems have been punching above their weight so far. Hope they can keep doing it. It’s going to take a stronger stomach than they are used to having. ACA going down in flames, filibustering a Supreme Court nominee, the nation’s credit on the line.
Good luck to us all.
Thanks for lifting me up. I too keep thinking about those 63 million voters for Trump and wondering if many of them are beginning to see what they have done to the country with their vote. No more of this blaming Hillary by them and by our supposed allies on the left. The people responsible for this are all those who voted for Trump because he was the GOP candidate. They knew better and they voted for him. They don’t get off in my mental scenarios;they get marched to the guillotine ahead of the rest of us.
Debt ceiling is unconstitutional and no other modern country works under such a batshit requirement.
In other words, fuck ’em.
You might have this wrong. I can see the GOP saying “the government is about to default on its debts and its all the Democrats fault because they won’t let us kill Obummercare” and the media playing along. Eventually the GOP presents a bill that raises the ceiling in exchange for Dem concessions on stuff that they can’t get through the filibuster, and enough Wimpocrats go along with it.
But, otherwise, the Democrats should vote for any vote to raise or eliminate the ceiling as the right thing to do – the consequences of a default being too severe. Sorry, I’m a firm believer in hardball politics, but you don’t threaten to shoot the hostage in order to save it.