Macomb County is in political nerdom an iconic county. Home to the Reagan Democrats. Winning it back played a part in the strategy in ’92.
In ’16 Trump carried the county by around 50K votes, or 10.5% .
Obama carried the same county by about 4%, and won it by about 16K votes.
This is a large enough shift by itself to have changed the result in Michigan.
Stanley Greenberg conducted a number of focus groups on what happened. Greenberg notes he has been researching Macomb since 1985.
So Greenberg is doing what we should be doing: asking why we lost voters we had previously won. It’s a long report. Some of these voters were reachable and some are not.
Greenberg’s polling from November 7th to 9th concludes that Comey was not decisive. This is his description of why Clinton faded at the end:
We tested the economic policies Secretary Clinton put forward and spoke about at various times
in her campaign, in major economic speeches and elaborated on in the debates. In the Election
night survey, voters thought these should be a high priority for the next President. These include
proposals to raise taxes on the richest to invest in the middle class, to change corporate
governance, raise incomes and create more good paying jobs, invest in an infrastructure jobs
program, and improve education at all levels.
Remember, these were top of mind policies when Clinton made her biggest gains compared to
Trump on who is for the middle class, better on the economy, and willing to take on special
interests.
However, because the Clinton campaign went silent on the economy, voters reported not having
heard of what she had proposed in key areas of reform and job creating. Voters did hear that she
wanted to tax the wealthiest to make investments to help the middle class and of her plans to
make college debt free and affordable. Those were important and made voters much more likely
to support Clinton.
But her plans for financial reform were not heard by nearly half of voters, one-third did not recall
hearing her plans for an infrastructure jobs program, and one-quarter did not recall hearing her
plans to raise income or reform corporate governance. Had they heard, many reported they
would be much more likely to support Clinton.
Reports since have stressed that Clinton’s advertising did not focus on policy.
I am not so sure Greenberg is right. His focus group kind of supports the conclusion.
The focus groups makes for an interesting read and I am not sure what to make of it.
Greenberg believes based on his late polling the Obamacare increases had an effect. There was talk in the focus group about the cost of Health Care, and it is hard not to think the current proposal will disappoint them.
–“Greenberg’s polling from November 7th to 9th concludes that Comey was not decisive.”–
Wrong. It says the Comey letter “critically affected the race”.
Read the quote. Had Clinton talked about her policy, he things she would have run.
Clinton ignored policy in her advertising, and most of the public didn’t know what her proposals were.
Not surprising given her advertising seldom mentioned her proposals.
Perhaps the fact that news outlets covered Comey and various other accusations against Clinton INSTEAD OF HER POLICY PROPOSALS played a role, but Mr Greenburg didn’t consider that possibility, it would seem.
Clinton did not talk about policy in her advertising. It was the least policy oriented advertising campaign in modern political history.
I read the whole thing. Cultural/racial/language concerns were a major preoccupation of these voters. There was also a very much connected presumption that others who speak other languages are getting government benefits, and many of these voters just think that’s wrong.
They talk down the huge Muslim community in Dearborn in such generic terms. My understanding is that this is a community which has assimilated pretty well and has a decent economy. Unfortunately, some in the focus group are made uncomfortable by something as anodyne as the call to prayer. These Muslims live close by; these are not some scary people thousands of miles away wholly invented by Fox News. Yet here these Macomb voters are, approving of Trump’s immigration and travel policies.
Finally, these people blame President Obama for the growing racial divide. What are we to make of people who look at what happened re. racial issues in whole during the Obama Presidency and conclude that it’s time for Trump? Come on, that’s pretty prejudiced. Even if they voted for President Obama, that’s pretty prejudiced.
Jamelle Bouie has an even stronger view than I do about this focus group summary:
Jamelle Bouie
@jbouie
tl;dr these voters want a white ethno-state & the researchers are saying progressives will never make headway if they don’t respond to this.
9:03 AM – 10 Mar 2017
I’m a white man who wants a multicultural society where women’s rights are protected, and I don’t want to be in a political Party which walks away from that. I’m not willing to go as far as Bouie does here, but I’m not particularly optimistic that we get many of these voters back. Even if they become disillusioned with Trump, it looks to me like they’s got their heads filled with other “people” they will blame for the failure of Cheeto Benito to elevate their social status.
These voters might grow and learn; maybe we get them back that way. Or, they stop voting for Trump and Republicans because he’s an appalling liar who doesn’t sincerely want to help these people. My worry is that there are lots of people here at the Frog Pond who want the Democratic Party to support a much more progressive economic vision. I agree.
However, I look at the things these people in Macomb County are saying, and I hear these people telling us they don’t want a progressive economic program in the United States. They want their comfortable middle class jobs back and they want to be elevated above other people who they believe are inferior to them, other people who they believe should not be treated well by our government. It sounds to me like they’re demanding both of these things.
Lebanese settlers in 1870’s. very diverse, including recent Christian immigrants
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Middle_Eastern_people_in_Metro_Detroit
From Greenberg’s conclusion:
Clinton was the establishment. The establishment is viewed as a failure in Macomb – it is why this county saw a swing large enough to swing the entire state.
Trump promised that these working class white Michiganders would get their status superiority back. This was very important to the people in the focus group. A case can be made from the responses from people in the focus group that status superiority was more important to them than Clinton’s much more progressive economic platform.
Yes, I see many of them just didn’t believe Clinton. How willfully blind (or overcome by propaganda) do you have to be to declare yourself willing to trust Trump, literally the most frequent, most outlandish liar in recent political history?
Clinton and her campaign were by far literally more truthful than Trump’s, but by Election Day she polled as being marginally less trustworthy.
To be clear, I am not a doomsayer who thinks it is impossible for us to win in 2018, 2020 and beyond, even with the extremely adverse electoral conditions of the post-Citizens United/Shelby County world. Hillary ran extraordinarily close to Trump; he has no margin to lose any of his voters, and I think it’s likely he’ll lose some. I just want to point out that no Democratic POTUS candidate in 2016 offered to deliver what many of these Michigan voters craved: the takedown of the blacks and browns.
I think about their claim that they cared about the citizens of Flint, which means literally nothing next to the fact that they voted for the man who loudly promised to poison Americans thru deregulations of businesses of all kinds and further privatization of water and other civic services. I’m relatively certain the vast majority of these people voted for Governor Snyder, which would even more clearly reveal that their crocodile tears over Flint residents are a fraud.
Trump promised that these working class white Michiganders would get their status superiority back. This was very important to the people in the focus group. A case can be made from the responses from people in the focus group that status superiority was more important to them than Clinton’s much more progressive economic platform.
Yes, I see many of them just didn’t believe Clinton. How willfully blind (or overcome by propaganda) do you have to be to declare yourself willing to trust Trump, literally the most frequent, most outlandish liar in recent political history?
Clinton and her campaign were by far literally more truthful than Trump’s, but by Election Day she polled as being marginally less trustworthy.
To be clear, I am not a doomsayer who thinks it is impossible for us to win in 2018, 2020 and beyond, even with the extremely adverse electoral conditions of the post-Citizens United/Shelby County world. Hillary ran extraordinarily close to Trump; he has no margin to lose any of his voters, and I think it’s likely he’ll lose some. I just want to point out that no Democratic POTUS candidate in 2016 offered to deliver what many of these Michigan voters craved: the takedown of the blacks and browns.
I think about their claim that they cared about the citizens of Flint, which means literally nothing next to the fact that they voted for the man who loudly promised to poison Americans thru deregulations of businesses of all kinds and further privatization of water and other civic services. I’m relatively certain the vast majority of these people voted for Governor Snyder, which would even more clearly reveal that their crocodile tears over Flint residents are a fraud.