Macomb County is in political nerdom an iconic county. Home to the Reagan Democrats. Winning it back played a part in the strategy in ’92.
In ’16 Trump carried the county by around 50K votes, or 10.5% .
Obama carried the same county by about 4%, and won it by about 16K votes.
This is a large enough shift by itself to have changed the result in Michigan.
Stanley Greenberg conducted a number of focus groups on what happened. Greenberg notes he has been researching Macomb since 1985.
So Greenberg is doing what we should be doing: asking why we lost voters we had previously won. It’s a long report. Some of these voters were reachable and some are not.
Greenberg’s polling from November 7th to 9th concludes that Comey was not decisive. This is his description of why Clinton faded at the end:
We tested the economic policies Secretary Clinton put forward and spoke about at various times
in her campaign, in major economic speeches and elaborated on in the debates. In the Election
night survey, voters thought these should be a high priority for the next President. These include
proposals to raise taxes on the richest to invest in the middle class, to change corporate
governance, raise incomes and create more good paying jobs, invest in an infrastructure jobs
program, and improve education at all levels.
Remember, these were top of mind policies when Clinton made her biggest gains compared to
Trump on who is for the middle class, better on the economy, and willing to take on special
interests.
However, because the Clinton campaign went silent on the economy, voters reported not having
heard of what she had proposed in key areas of reform and job creating. Voters did hear that she
wanted to tax the wealthiest to make investments to help the middle class and of her plans to
make college debt free and affordable. Those were important and made voters much more likely
to support Clinton.
But her plans for financial reform were not heard by nearly half of voters, one-third did not recall
hearing her plans for an infrastructure jobs program, and one-quarter did not recall hearing her
plans to raise income or reform corporate governance. Had they heard, many reported they
would be much more likely to support Clinton.
Reports since have stressed that Clinton’s advertising did not focus on policy.
I am not so sure Greenberg is right. His focus group kind of supports the conclusion.
The focus groups makes for an interesting read and I am not sure what to make of it.
Greenberg believes based on his late polling the Obamacare increases had an effect. There was talk in the focus group about the cost of Health Care, and it is hard not to think the current proposal will disappoint them.
