It seems like criticizing the Affordable Care Act is a liberal pastime but it’s often forgotten just how close the effort came to failing, or that it was lack of Democratic unity (and uniform Republican opposition) that made the bill weaker and less politically appealing that it ought to have been. So, that’s a caveat to what follows here.
Not enough attention was paid to how unpopular parts of the Affordable Care Act would be, which is why the Democrats didn’t anticipate that, far from getting credit for fulfilling a campaign promise, they would be wiped out of Congress and state legislatures all over the country. One reason that liberals asked for a public option was that they considered it better policy, but another was that they thought it would blunt the pain of imposing an individual mandate to buy insurance.
I don’t want to relitigate the public option. I’d rather chew shards of glass. But I bring this up because fulfilling campaign promises is overrated. Yeah, it’s nice to be able to do what you said you’d do, but that doesn’t mean there will be any political reward for it. In fact, if your achievement is controversial and has some significant downsides, then it’s possible that you’ll be punished for keeping your campaign promise.
To use a hypothetical example, it’s impossible to imagine that the Republicans would be rewarded politically if abortion were actually outlawed. They would be slaughtered, and they know it.
Paul Ryan should keep that in mind. He says that “if we don’t keep our word [to repeal Obamacare] to the people who sent us here, yes” there will be a bloodbath for Republicans in 2018.
I think that’s probably backwards.
I’ve written several pieces lately detailing why the Republicans are almost completely inoculated against any accountability for almost anything they do. I doubt there’s anything they could do to lose the Senate in 2018, but repealing Obamacare would surely make it more possible than failing to repeal it. The same goes for the House.
Repealing Obamacare and replacing it with anything like what the Republicans are currently proposing would be a certain way to do glaring obvious harm to their own constituents, and to do it in a way in which it would be impossible to convincingly pass the buck onto the Democrats.
And, even if this weren’t true, we’ve already seen several elections (1994, 2010, 2014) where tinkering (or attempting to tinker) with health care came with disastrous, unwarranted results. People who like their health care don’t like proposals to change their health care. So much the worse, I imagine, when the change actual comes and it’s bad.
That’s why I don’t agree with Paul Waldman that the Republicans will get a bloodbath no matter whether they repeal Obamacare or they don’t.
This is vastly overstated, in my opinion:
But there’s a problem: 2018 is probably going to be a bloodbath for Republicans whether they pass repeal or not…
Ryan is almost certainly right that if they fail to pass repeal, the GOP base will be disgusted with its leaders…
…if they can’t pass it with complete control of government, it would be even worse. You’d likely see depressed turnout among Republicans who saw no reason to rush to the polls to reelect representatives who can’t seem to do what they promised.
To be honest, I can’t see a scenario where depressed turnout for Republicans would cost them the Senate no matter how severe the depressed turnout, and I can almost say the same thing for the House. Their base of supporters is so much better geographically dispersed than the Democrats, and their gerrymandering and incumbency advantages are such that they can win the House even if millions and millions of more people turn out to vote against them.
The only way for the Republicans to lose is if they actually lose support from their base and a big segment of those people turn out to vote for the Democrats. Repealing Obamacare could conceivably accomplish this. But failing to repeal Obamacare almost certainly could not.
In truth, I don’t doubt that Americans will turn out in 2018 with a real purpose to take power away from the Republicans. It’s just that the Republicans’ advantages are so incredible at this point that that will simply can’t be translated into results. I can easily see Democratic Senate candidates getting tens of millions more votes in 2018 and still losing a handful of seats without capturing even a single Republican one. Maybe Sen. Dean Heller of Nevada will lose but I doubt any other incumbent Republicans will.
Still, if the Republicans want to make it possible for them to lose Senate seats in Mississippi, Utah, Idaho, and Tennessee, then they should go ahead and pass their health care bill. I can’t think of anything else they could do that would make those seats remotely competitive, and that includes starting ill-advised wars, failing to protect levees, or having a president in the midst of impeachment hearings. Their geographical and cultural advantages are so strong right now that they almost can’t lose, and they have Jeff Sessions in place to make sure they can suppress the vote any way that they want.
I hate to be a downer like this, but there really is no mechanism for holding them accountable or to make them fear general elections more than primaries from their right. So, the truth is almost the opposite of what Waldman says. He says, “2018 is probably going to be a bloodbath for Republicans whether they pass repeal or not.” I say “2018 is probably not going to be a bloodbath for Republicans whether they pass repeal or not.”
For the GOP, keeping their promises on health care would be about the only way they could screw up their lock on power. And I doubt even that would be sufficient.
In politics, things have a way of changing that were hard to anticipate in advance. The GOP was in ascendence, until they weren’t. The Democrats had a Blue Wall around the White House, until they didn’t.
What’s easy to forget is that, in order to pass the ACA, the Democrats actually had 60 Senate seats. Not even a decade later, it’s almost inconceivable that either party would get 60 seats in the Senate. But nothing will stay.
Something big will happen to change things. It’s hard to predict exactly what that will be, but it will happen. Consequences of gross GOP incompetence would be a good guess (see: Bush, George W).
Meanwhile, in the near term, the thing that is likely to change is gerrymandering itself. Several cases are about to get to the Supreme Court, and if we get a ruling in our favor — which could very well happen, even with Gorsuch on the court — we might get halfway to control of the House on that alone. That will change the physiognomy of the House significanty. And then there’s the Trump Backlash.
I agree that the Senate is not changing hands in 2018. I wouldn’t be sufficiently certain of anything beyond that.
Sixty Senate seats and no party discipline and no consensus of key issues is not power unless someone exerts some very strong-willed leadership and has the means to punish the stragglers.
Independent funding of candidates outside the parties mean that neither party has that cohesion. The orgy of lobbyists in Congress means that there is no way to get the cohesion to do the public will even if the public could summon the will to do anything.
So you have the corporations writing the legislation to benefit themselves. And the battle is between different factions of corporations.
At the moment there seem to be six and possible many more corporate factions driving toward gridlock.
And the public is OK with that post the past 40 years because there really has been no signature legislation that did what the public actually wanted done.
Push through the elimination of deductibles, co-pays, and balance billing so that the public is not (it isn’t nickeled and dimed at all) forced to pay the profit that providers and insurers seek. Do that an the politics might look a bit different. Even the single payer proposals still had deductibles and co-pays to politically haggle over year after year.
How are you going to pay for it? When do Repubicans have to answer that question having never ever cut spending to “pay for” anything?
The only way that the GOP can keep winning is by doing nothing or by narrowcasting the match between policies and candidates. And still being able to have a convincing coalition whose sole purpose is to ensure that Democrats never regain power.
Democrats cannot even mount a convincing opposition at the moment, given the handicap of having lost the attractiveness of their brand bigtime in 2014.
Not only that, apparently the mini civil-war at DNC was instigated 100% by Obama. His priority STILL seems to be smashing down the energy in his party to push his own failed and repudiated vision of American unity.
Can we PLEASE have a ceasefire/moratorium on bringing up the 2016 primary or 2017 DNC chair election?
At this stage, all it does is derails threads. No one changes their mind, and everyone gets frustrated, hostile or both, which only just threatens the Pond’s continued existence.
Everyone who reads/posts regularly knows how everyone else feels on those topics. Can we concentrate on the future from now on? Slagging Obama or Clinton no longer accomplishes anything, especially in terms of having discussions on this blog that might inspire people to volunteer in helpful ways moving forward?
second this comment
Can we PLEASE have a ceasefire/moratorium on bringing up the 2016 primary or 2017 DNC chair election?
Why? Have you seen Vox today, I think? Obama went all out to get Perez elected. Have the DCCC and DSCC and DLCC learned their lessons yet? When was the last time anyone at any of those four organizations were fired for incompetence? Maybe you’re happy with the state of the Democratic Party but I’m not. Maybe you don’t want to figure out how we got here and how it can be fixed, but I do. Do you know there are states, like Maryland, where the Democrats control both houses of the Legislature, that are looking to pass laws pre-empting local attempts like Baltimore of passing $15/hr minimum wage? It’s not just the GOP pulling that shit. And then people wonder why Democrats have a turnout problem, or that 50%(or more) of the eligible voting population doesn’t vote. You can’t fix the Democratic Party’s problem unless you’re willing to figure out what’s wrong and what’s needed to fix it.
I don’t think he’s talking about figuring out what went wrong – I took the comment to mean desist from replaying the primary. we need to figure out what went wrong – fladem’s diaries are on target on that issue.
Did anyone watch Chris Hayes’ show tonight? The “Townhall with Bernie Sanders” in McDowell County West Virginia.
Somerby did. I’m trying to find the transcript now.
Your thoughts?
Bernie being Bernie. He’s the only Senator or Representative waging class war. He also made an appearance at the near the Nissan plant in Mississippi recently. A plant that the UAW is trying to unionize. A plant that is 80% non-white, IIRC.
watched some of the clips. impressive
also interesting, evidently Beto ORourke dem from El Paso is going to challenge ted cruz. his live town hall roadtrip w. rep Hurd is pretty impressive (they’re driving from TX to DC, because of flights cancelled)
https:/m.facebook.com/BetoORourkeTX16?refid=52&_tn_=C
Correct.
Rehashing the primary and the DNC election do nothing to move anyone on this board forward. It just starts arguments and has for the past few months.
If you have concrete proposals for action steps we can take now in our respective states, Phil, let’s hear ’em, because I think we can move forward without going over who did what and when. It’s in the past.
Amen!
I mentioned it because the Vox article gave me information I didn’t have before and because I struggle to see how this is a difference of opinion as opposed to ignoring facts.
Also I don’t think we CAN move forward in any meaningful way until we correct our past errors. I don’t think moving forward with new strategies and ideas will be possible or effective until we stop repeating our past mistakes.
How can you/we/anyone correct the error (if that’s how anyone sees it) of the DNC election NOW? It’s in the past, and everyone who was opposed to the outcome and the process (I.e., “interference”) has already made their opinions known.
There error is that the people who have led us into this point are still leading us. Obama put up his candidate specifically to spike the other wing of the party. That’s a tough to swallow from someone as bad as party building as Obama.
Anyone still complaining about the DNC race should be made to sit in the dunking machine.
The new face of the DNC. Looks pretty good to me.
The more the Democratic establishment tries after the 2010, 2014, and 2016 elections to determine the shape of the Democratic Party and restore its relevance, the more the Democratic brand becomes irrelevant because (1) they continue to provide the foil against which the GOP can run without having to commit GOP positions to anything. (2) the establishment Democrats cannot restore the relevants of the Democratic Party through a top-down plan forced down on the grassroots.
It’s not the past that is being commented on but the things that failed in the past now being shoved as a model for the future. It was crazy in 2011. It is crazier now.
Trying to convince the left that they have nowhere else to go electorally through co-optive manipulation of the word “resistance” will backfire and increase the passivity and the support for Trump. People don’t like being played dishonestly. Any authentic opposition to Trump and authentic change means less money for lobbyists, campaign consultants, media consultants, and the media. The same dynamic in state capitals. It means candidate spending extended amounts of time at town meeting, not avoiding them. It also means an awareness of the organized sabotage of movements that provide real opposition to Trump and the GOP. And the media’s collaboration in that sabotage. More money to party committees does not overwhelm that sabotage nor does it deflect it; it might even become co-opted in that sabotage.
There are no GOP bloodbaths on the horizon because Democrats are totally outflanked (a lot the result of three decades of inattention to voters and trusting media). And because the Democratic establishment is not prepared to do what needs to be done to pick up the disaffected as the GOP start providing results on the ground.
This is not sniping; this is the way it is at the moment.
Sniping would be asking Max Baucus, Evan Bayh, and Kent Conrad if the Affordable Care Act has met their primary purpose: has Wellpoint prospered? And doing it to their faces. (Colbert?)
Somehow the republicans under Trump seem pretty cohesive to me, even more than that minority party- the Democratic Party. The republicans are winning quite easily on the backs of a non existent opposition and a cultural lock on their base. So, yeah, the democrats are not a very attractive brand at the moment outside the ribbons of blue around the coasts.
Amen.
Events dear boy, events said a British PM famously.
The map is terrible, it is true. It is also the same map that was in play in 2006 in the Senate.
Clinton improved by 9 points among those who make 100K, and lost 16 points among those under 30.
These are swing voters at least at some level. If you can win back half of the voters list under 30K and hold most of those Clinton won who make over 100K you could create a pretty large swing.
So the economy could go into a recession – something that is actually probable over the next 2 -4 years. Or we could have a War or terror attack.
One of the less noticed features of 2016 was though the top line number was stable, there were large swings in subgroup.
The point is there still is pretty significant volatility here – and while I agree with Booman for the most part – there has been a significant tendency to underestimate volatility in elections in general.
You are overstating the Republican’s advantage in the House, considerably. The gerrymandering is not adequate to protect their majority in the event of a major swing as in 2008->2010 or 2012->2014. There are enough seats available in non-gerrymandered states (CA, NY) or in states where the gerrymander was forced to leave some swing districts (PA). As in 2016, control of the House depends on R-leaning districts in D-leaning states. In the event of a 2010-level swing, even the gerrymanders will start to fail as R+5 and R+6 districts will be flipping. The Republicans will still have more seats than they “should” but they’ll still end up in the minority.
In the Senate, yes, it’s a very tall order. We’d have to flip TX (doable with a 2010-level swing but probably not 2014-level) and hold all our red state seats, which is going to be difficult even with a 2010-level swing. However, flipping the House means the end of any legislative changes, which means they won’t be able to make any further long-term changes.
Tell me why there will be a major swing in the House in 2018 that would swing the House. And tell me where the opposition candidates are coming from. And the 175k votes per district to swing it.
I hope you are right on this, but I don’t see it.
A 9% swing with 2014 turnout is 16,000 voters per district. Exactly who will flip/not show up is hard to say, but we know swings of that magnitude are possible, because we got one just 6 years ago. We’ve got 3 credible candidates for an R+12 special election right now, so I don’t see recruitment being a major limitation.
I’m not saying we will get a swing that big, just pointing out that the GOP House gerrymanders are not sufficient to protect them from losing the House in the event of a big, but plausible, swing. A number of state legislatures really are that gerrymandered (including PA, I think, which may be why Boo is so pessimistic) but not the national House.
I’m pointing out that the GOP got some of that swing because the Democrats failed to field candidates who could be competitive or failed to contest the election at all. And allowed them to run away from the Democratic Party.
Tell me the circumstances under which challengers can run as strong Democrats aligned with the Democratic establishment and win that big of a swing.
What the GOP is cashing in on is people voting “Not-Democrat”. To do that with Trump at the head of the ticket says something very important about what that “Not” term is about. Shaking that reputation of being corporate sluts and whores and climbers and (shock) women is not a straightforward campaign task of messaging. There are actions that relate to credibility that have to be dealt with. And the asymmetric narrowcasted environment. And the public’s current detachment from their own neighborhoods and communities outside of cultural safety zones.
Look at the numbers. We can do it. That’s how minimalist campaigning failed in 2008 (in every race but President), 2010, 2012 (in every race but President), 2014, and 2016. 2018 is not looking any different because the same attitudes are still there among the political class of the Democratic Party.
I think Waldman is a perfect example of Democratic delusion here: “You’d likely see depressed turnout among Republicans who saw no reason to rush to the polls to reelect representatives who can’t seem to do what they promised.”
Republicans are absolutely delivering on their central promise. Nobody cares if they’re not delivering on bullshit slogans about ‘lock her up’ and ‘build a wall’ and ‘repeal Obamacare’. Those are rallying cries, not campaign promises … and they worked.
The real Republican promises weren’t political. They don’t do politics. Their real promises were cultural. That’s what matters to the Republican base. As long as the Republicans keep parroting Nazi propaganda about ‘their babies’ and leading a national conversation about a ‘Muslim’ ban,’ they are absolutely fulfilling their central campaign promises.
Save me from fucking Democrats who can’t tell the difference between a rallying cry (‘free college!’) and a policy paper.
Yes. This. My fundie co-workers are FINE with Trump. They voted anti-‘bortion and anti-gay marriage. That’s it. One has expressed qualms about the gutting of Obamacare and would be up in arms if Medicare is touched, but if that is thwarted, she’s fine with the other nutjob rightwinger stuff. Economics goes WAY over their heads, they all have “friend of coal” stickers on their cars, and until you broach the subject of the local fight to block a landfill expansion, they do NOT care about environment stuff. These are the people who show up with the “Keep Govt. out of Medicare” protest signs. Good luck turning them Dem.
Other than fighting the good fight to change things despite nearly impossible odds, what’s the point of it? Given the political realities you describe, are we left to accept things as they are?
Is even the possibility of a Reverend Barber led faith-based moral movement not going to change the game?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6I2Nq1Tr4Pc
I am not saying I know but am really frustrated to think that nothing I do matters. You reinforce that so often I’m starting to question why I put the time in for this when I could spend the time elsewhere.
I had the same reaction; are we supposed to throw up our hands and go home? Yes, the GOP has some advantages now, but this kind of defeatism doesn’t get us anywhere.
The thing is, when Martin does his analysis, it’s realistic, not defeatist. So it’s hard not to be defeated.
The thing that keeps me going and involved is that the other option is just not one. Damned, wasting time trying to do justice (because of all the other things in life given up as a result of it) and damned if we don’t, because then face a reality of these evil people ruining all of our lives.
Feeling very discouraged and a little desperate for some perspective to go along with Martin’s that offers some proper hope.
Depends on the definition of “us.” If “us” is the current neoliberalcon Democratic Party that has no intention of restoring the 20th party brand, then defeatism is an excellent near-term strategy. It precludes the hoi polloi from demanding anything of them (because that would be unrealistic when they have no power) and looking and building for alternatives to them. That way they can keep “their powder dry” as they wait for their turn again after the GOP royally screws up again (as well as clean up some nasty bits that they have no idea how to resolve — it really didn’t look good for Obama to be the deporter, droner, subversion charger in chief.)
What seems to distress that “us” the most from the 2016 election is that it deprives them of pushing forward with the TPP and war with Russia. But tRump may come around on both and then “us” will only be deprived of getting the credit.
Well you got a governor in NC, but how much power have the GOP actually allowed him? I ask honestly here. I know they were going to neuter the office but I don’t know if they did.
They did. All can be reversed upon the election of a GOP governor. Losing control of the legislature not considered possible.
It will not be the loss of healthcare alone that will mortally wound the GOP. It is the healthcare jobs. There are rural communities who now have an ambulance staffed with a trained EMT. This service will vanish when the paying customers can no longer afford insurance. The ambulance staff all spent or borrowed money to get certified/trained to do their jobs which will no longer provide the income to pay their loans. When you destroy the individual ins. market for 30 million…the corp. ins. industry layoffs will be swift.
Democrats have to fight a lot of battles and I don’t believe they will win a lot of them. It all comes down to this: Republicans like what Trump and the party are doing. And they have the majorities to achieve their goals.
They like seeing health care being taken from the poor, and all the better if women’s services are taken away. They don’t want to pay for birth control, abortions, or mammograms.
They like being racists, even to the point now where they can say it right out loud. Steve King is a hero because he wants a homogenous country without foreign babies born here or brought in. Nationalism is the ticket.
They like banning Muslims and building the Wall, and they’ll forgive the price because Trump promised that we’d get our money back, although that’s a bald-faced lie. And they don’t care.
The investigations into Russian interference and improper connections to Trump and his Cabinet are simply being carried out by sore losers from the Obama administration and the Loyal Trumpists see it as background noise.
Even if TrumpCare stumbles and the loyal followers lose coverage, they will remain loyal. I don’t see an overturn of this Trumpian nightmare in 2018 or 2020. Trump’s already accumulating donations for his campaign and unless he keels over, I’ll bet he wins again.
Trump and Co are providing what they promised: chaos and destruction of the government from the inside out.
“there really is no mechanism…to make them fear general elections more than primaries from their right”–ah, but what if the fear Ryan has is not a bloodbath of the GOP in general, but of the current GOP incumbents in particular? That might be a threat to the current Representatives to make them toe the line. As for the general election, maybe some of the resulting nominees might be unpalatable to lose, although I don’t think that will be enough to swing the House and Senate.
The Repubs went so far out on the “Obamacare Delenda Est!” limb they had to present something as a MAGA “plan” and they have to have a vote on it. It’s hard to see the current bag of shit being enacted, despite the promised bully pulpit blabberings of the demented Der Trumper. Health insurance reform can’t just be a bag of loose-ends shit that has a couple of things that “taste great, less filling!” Too many moving parts, far too many for the anti-expert imbeciles that make up the Ryan braintrust.
So they can’t pass anything remotely comprehensible and apparently are afraid to simply repeal the signature legislation of the hated Obama and return to the glorious pre-2009 days of the Greatest Healthcare Evah.
So they’ll have their vote on Ryan’s grab-bag of shit and let the chips fall where they may. And if Trumpcare doesn’t pass, Trump just destroys Obamacare via death by a thousand cuts.
This is all just a tedious sideshow for the plutocrats, who couldn’t care less abut healthcare for the American rubes, and came up with this spittle-flecked tri-corn hat circus in 2009 as a way to focus opposition to Dem control after the last Repub meltdown. Since then Plutocrats and their captured party have assiduously worked to rig the election game via Citizens United, comprehensive gerrymandering and nationwide vote suppression campaigns. And now the electoral college is the Founders Greatest Vision(tm), too!
So pass this Trumpcare or don’t pass it, the real “conservative” prizes are awaiting: tax cuts of all stripes for the already rich and their corporate treasuries, the gutting of all environmental protections, the fire sale of federal assets and a renewed orgy of “defense” spending. Everything else pales in comparison, and none of these things will threaten the Repub grip on power in any way. Indeed, they are popular in the Trump states.
They need to show an effort to attempt to repeal and/or replace for the base. When it fails they can say they tried.
All those town halls with Republican voters screaming at their congresspeople to “do their jobs” are meaningless?
They’re not republican voters.
I thought they were, and that was why Trump’s bullshit about “Democratic operatives” was so laughable.
Many people expressing unhappiness in town halls and elsewhere about ACA repeal are Republicans. They’ve said so to their representatives and reporters.
That was certainly the case at our townhalls. Our state and my Congressional district are so red you could almost count the number of Democrats on one hand. Okay…being somewhat hyperbolic, but the point is that it would be difficult to fathom the crowded townhalls that vexed one of our Senators and my Rep being filled primarily with or only with Democratic voters.
You’ve noted before that protests are relatively gentle because protesters think they have a chance politically. As you point out, very unlikely. Given that, what’s the argument against armed revolt? I mean, besides the fact that we’d lose.
CBO report out now
Twenty-four million people would lose their insurance over the next 10 years under Republican legislation being pushed to repeal Obamacare, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said Monday.
“In 2026, an estimated 52 million people would be uninsured, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under current law,” the CBO said.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/cbo-coverage-numbers
That’s 24 million “moochers” who will now have the freedom to buy competitive insurance on the glorious free market.
Wait til they start block-granting Medicaid. They might not be brave enough to do that before 2018. Given the # of disabled in those rural districts, whoa…
The White House internal projections were even more bleak: 26 million. If you’re low income or older in particular, you have the “freedom” to die under Trumpcare.
I doubt the repeal of Obamacare will change anything. Most working people get their health insurance through their employers. There will be an impact in areas heavily impacted by a loss of Medicaid, but I even doubt much loss there. Besides, it is easy to play this game by extending Medicaid to at least 2020. The democrats need some sort of sea change to become competitive or an exogenous event. I just don’t see anyone or anything that will change it. We are a one party country now.
I do have to wonder about this analysis because I remember Booman saying before the election that no matter how he played with the numbers, he could not work out a Trump win because of the strong Dem minority support. So predictions are made to be broken. Obviously the GOP has a huge advantage through gerrymandering. But it’s not insurmountable and I do think there is really unprecedented opposition to Trump that will motivate people. He’s HORRIBLE in every way. I expected it, but a lot of people have been caught by surprise. Let’s remember the MASSIVE marches after the inauguration. There is real anti-Trump energy out there and there’s no point in playing a game of doom.
Thank you — this is what I keep saying.
While it would be nice to win back the House and Senate in 2018, the focus should be on winning the State governorships and state legislatures.
The map for 2018 and 2020 is already drawn and is not pretty for Dems. But restricting is coming up and there is no reason why the focus can;t be on winning many governorships and legislatures in 2018, who, in turn, impact redistricting after 2020.
As for 2020, there is a lot to be excited about. A recession is very very likely in 2019 or 2020. If you think Trump will get to November 2020 without a recession, you don’t know your economic history. Possible, but very unlikely. And a recession means he is a one termer (recessions in the first 2 years of a presidential term can be overcome, but not in the final 2 years) coupled with control of the House and big wins in state legislatures in 2020.
Have faith!
I think you’re right about a possible recession, but, by golly,even without one if we Americans vote this man back in I am moving somewhere else. I cannot handle a 2nd term of Trump and his party, and frankly, I don’t think our country and democracy can either.
And, besides which, we’re gonna win back the Presidency in 2020 and fill a couple of vacancies on the Supreme Court. Maybe we’ll even do the whole country a favor and move us toward defined terms of office for SC justices, so that each President gets a vacancy or two to fill. I believe in the possible, and through hard work and a positive attitude, the possible can become a reality.
Exactly. In all likelihood the economy will crash again in the next 2-3 years, possibly sooner depending on the GOP’s health care plan and their proposed tax cuts for the wealthy.
Once the wealthiest 1% get as much as they can from Federal giveaways and the Military Industrial Complex, they will turn to Wall Street and break the piggy bank again. This is all part of the plan to keep cycling money to the very top. When the market starts to flag, if not sooner, then I expect the GOP will push for a tax holiday on $2.3T in repatriated money under the guise of “Stimulus”. This will just further consolidate wealth among the extremely wealthy with no positive benefits to the middle and lower classes.
I would not be surprised to see the Dems take complete control of the House and Senate in 2018, just in time for the whole economy to collapse and be left holding the bag while the minority GOP is there to remind us that we cannot afford to raise the debt ceiling/spending on infrastructure or real stimulus.
http://washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/januaryfebruary-2017/how-to-bring-home-democratic-voters/
A pessimistic though perhaps accurate view of things. If the Dems keep doing the same shit they’ve been doing then yep, they are screwed.
In order for dems to get back into power in the house and senate two things have to occur:
1- Dems need to go big as the party of ideas
2- They need to shake the label as the party of Taxes and DMV like fines and fees…. with no clear cut positive benefit.
That was the true problem with dumping single payer while having a mandate. It’s odd that it seems soooo hard to understand for many rank and file Dems, but people REALLY don’t like paying fines and fees. However, you can get them to do it if you hand them goodies and clear good governance in return.
Why in the God honest fuck was it so hard to understand that people wouldn’t like a mandate?
The only shot at this was to push for a universal system, THEN bump up taxes to cover it. Otherwise people’s aversion to taxes fines and fees would eventually come back to bite anyone who was seen at fault for taking money out of their pockets. And thats what happened.
So now dems are stuck hoping Latinos can pop out enough kids to put them back in power. If all of us are stuck trying to ride this horse back to the promised land, them we are fucked.
Democrates and their old school corporatist way of thinking are basically dead men walking.
For God’s sakes, go big or go home.
Announce a NEW DEAL for America: EVERYONE has healthcare. EVERYONE has food. EVERYONE has shelter. If you are an American citizen then those are your rights, not privileges.
A (New) New Deal
How does it get payed for? Who gives a fuck. Because thats not actually as important as the fact that at this particular point in our history, the country needs a new direction.
So give it to them.
I like those thoughts. We need single payer,or some universal form of it. And it should be paid from ordinary income taxes. Same for all the other stuff we need. Someone, who was labeled a crackpot, said Sanders plan would be neutral for taxes bc he had a large infrastructure plan and bc cost would be managed by the gov and not private businesses. But if not raise the taxes. It may be time to go big or go home. New direction is needed.
BooMan — You’re Wrong — The GOP Should NEVER Have Started With Health Care, When They Could’ve Easily Gotten Far More Political Mileage Out Of, Say, Infrastructure Legislation Or Tax Reform Or Financial De-Regulation. They’ve Shot Themselves In The Foot. As To Whether They Will Be Held “Accountable” — YES! The Non-Partisan CBO Throws Down Numbers Like 14-Million W/O Health Insurance By 2018 AND 24 Million W/O Health Insurance By 2026! Are You Kidding Me? Even DunderHead Republicans Can Figure That Their “Party” Is NOT Acting Like A “Responsible” Political Entity! This ALONE Will Suppress The GOP Turnout In 2018 —-> Yes, In Those “Red” States Like Utah, Mississippi, Tennessee & Idaho! Your Statement: “In truth, I don’t doubt that Americans will turn out in 2018 with a real purpose to take power away from the Republicans.” Nothing Could Be Further From The Truth! The Anti-Trump Hysteria, ALONE, From Coast-To-Coast, The Resistance Movement — (It’s Much Bigger And “Deeper” Than You Really KNOW! Trust ME!) — Will Act As A Double-Edged Sword. It Will Engender More Dems Than Usual To Actually Turn Out, MUCH MORE. Alternatively, The Republicans, In Droves, Will Simply Have NO INCENTIVE To Even Show Up At The Polls. Why Should They? NOTHING Will Have Been Done. NOTHING!!! And They’ll Realize, RIGHTLY, That The Remaining Two Years Will Be Even BLEAKER! Game, Set, Match. The Dems Will Be “Haulin’ Ass” In 2018, My Friend! Put Another Shrimp On The Barbie! It’s “Hammer Time”!!!
Good Lord, it’s hard to read your posts! I love the optimism but it’s like looking at some horrible spam ad for a fake job.