With Neal Gorsuch just confirmed to the Supreme Court and a Republican president launching missiles against a Middle Eastern country, today is not a comforting day to be a liberal. Our Bush Era PTSD has been reactivated in a big way. While I offered a limited and cautious and conditional defense of President Trump’s decision to authorize the strikes against Syria, I was at pains to note that it’s very important that the administration provide convincing evidence that the Assad regime is responsible for the sarin attack that served as the predicate for the missile launch.
Predictably, the Kremlin is insisting that the rebels were the ones in possession of the sarin. One side is right, and the other side is lying. How do we decide which side is which? How does the world decide?
To begin with, let’s look at what the Kremlin is saying:
Syria has denied that it possesses chemical weapons, and Russia held to its view that Mr. Assad had not bombed his own people…
…[Dmitri S. Peskov, a spokesman for President Vladimir V. Putin] said that the cruise missile strikes on Friday represented a “significant blow” to American-Russian ties, and that Mr. Putin considered the attack a breach of international law that had been made under a false pretext. “The Syrian Army has no chemical weapons at its disposal,” Mr. Peskov said…
…General Konashenkov also repeated the Russian assertion that all chemical weapons had been removed from Syrian government stockpiles, and he called on the United States to present evidence that Damascus had used them.
Mr. Peskov said that the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons had declared Syria to be free of chemical weapons, although that is not quite true…
…Mr. Peskov said that the United States had launched its attack to distract attention from the high number of civilian casualties caused by a recent American airstrike in Mosul, Iraq.
Separately, the Russian Defense Ministry and other officials said the American mission was too complicated to have been set up in a few days, meaning that Washington must have planned it long ago and claimed a fake chemical weapons attack as a pretext.
There will be no shortage of people on the left who are predisposed to believe what the Russians are arguing. The Iranians and the Syrians are making similar arguments. And maybe they are correct. The problem is that Russia’s propaganda network has been exposed as people have examined their role in influencing the American presidential election. I mentioned this network in my Matt Taibbi piece and I referred you to an important New York Times Magazine article written by Adrian Chen in June of 2015. Mr. Chen went searching for how hoaxes goes viral on the internet and wound up in St. Petersburg.
Who was behind all of this [fake news]? When I stumbled on it last fall, I had an idea. I was already investigating a shadowy organization in St. Petersburg, Russia, that spreads false information on the Internet. It has gone by a few names, but I will refer to it by its best known: the Internet Research Agency. The agency had become known for employing hundreds of Russians to post pro-Kremlin propaganda online under fake identities, including on Twitter, in order to create the illusion of a massive army of supporters; it has often been called a “troll farm.” The more I investigated this group, the more links I discovered between it and the hoaxes.
You’ll want to read that whole article, but the reason I mention it today is because it demonstrates the sophistication and resources that are committed to Russia’s efforts to shape public opinion. They know who to target if they want to find an audience predisposed to amplify their foreign policy positions. Before you know it, a bunch of liberals are calling every Ukrainian patriot a Nazi sympathizer and explaining that Victoria Nuland is responsible for the annexation of Crimea.
It isn’t hard to find antiwar left skeptics of American claims about weapons of mass destruction, so why not feed that doubt and use it to undermine the legitimacy of Trump’s decision to strike this airbase?
On the other hand, it wouldn’t be so easy to do this if we didn’t have that video of Colin Powell making a ridiculous case for war in Iraq at the United Nations in 2003. And, in particular, it wouldn’t be so easy if Donald Trump didn’t have a record of lying virtually every time he opens his mouth.
Asking a liberal to take Donald Trump’s pronouncements at face value is a perfect example of the Boy Who Cried Wolf fable. When you lie and lie and lie and lie and lie, then when it matters you will not be believed.
And perhaps Trump is lying now, or has been deceived. Who can say?
There has always been propaganda flying back and forth in the world of international politics and diplomacy, but we’re at an extreme point right now where neither side has the credibility of a five year old standing above a broken cookie jar.
President Obama had credibility. Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have none.
I will say, in this case, it matters to me to see the leaders of Australia, the U.K., France and Germany are backing up what Trump says. I don’t trust Trump, but I do have some trust in something that Western leaders are united on. Remember, France and Germany were not convinced by Colin Powell’s WMD presentation (at least to the extent that it justified an immediate invasion), and that was telling at that time. In this case, they are speaking with one voice.
There’s more to debate about Trump’s strike in Syria than whether it was based on accurate intelligence, but we need to work very hard to convince the world we have the evidence since Putin’s propaganda efforts are extremely effective and our own president isn’t even believed when talking about crowd sizes.
Personally, Trump’s lack of credibility in a situation like this is serious enough to warrant removal from office on these grounds alone. Call it a high misdemeanor, for crimes against the truth.
We know Russia is lying already because The Guardian went to the site:
‘The dead were wherever you looked’: inside Syrian town after gas attack
So which is it? Someone else with an air force launched this attack? The attack didn’t even happen and the whole thing is “fake”? Assad launched the attack? Or will we go down the route of “rogue elements” of the Syrian army did it without dear leader’s permission?
Prima facie evidence says Assad.
What’s the rationale for him doing it though? He’s someone restarted his chemical weapons production? Just a few days before it was reported that the US had given up backing the rebels and weren’t going to push for regime change. If Assad did do it, it’s going to make Putin look like an idiot. And we know that Putin doesn’t like being made to look like an idiot. Is that why Putin put out a statement two days ago, I think, saying that they were open to kicking Assad out(obviously as long as Syria remains their client state)?
Rationales:
You’re using logic that does not necessarily apply — shit, what logic do genocidal dictators have? Idk, I’m not one.
Clearly ISIL has teamed up with Wonder Woman and launched the attack from her invisible jet.
More evidence popping up that Russia and Assad are both full of shit: chemical weapons containers at the base
Courtesy of Arms Control Wonk Jeff Lewis
Jeff Updates
looking at the cui bono question, here’s another take on it, price of oil going up
It was up 20cents a gallon yesterday morning. Did Tillerson alert the market?
hmm.
at least here in norcal, gas prices have been rising for weeks already.
Interesting. We all know it’s ludicrous when the president takes credit for a booming economy, but blaming the president for gasoline prices is perfectly ok….
??????
You are aware, no doubt, that the final UN report on the Ghouta attacks concluded that the opposition WAS also in possession of CW at that date–they found traces of sarin in the blood of Syrian soldiers exposed Aug. 24&25 during a rebel attack.
Seymour Hersh’s reporting that Turkey was the probable supplier to the rebels was later confirmed by two Turkish whistleblowers from the opposition party in late 2015. That 13 arrests on indictments were made from the evidence, but then the case was dropped.
And CW does not automatically mean sarin. Chlorine gas has been used in that theater. Home cooked.
Please provide links.
Here is a link to the BBC’s analysis of the UN report.
What, you don’t read Consortiumnews and Global Research?
On December 13, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon signed identical letters to the UN General Assembly and Security Council, stating:
“I have the honour to convey herewith the final report of the United Nations Mission to investigate allegations of the use of chemical weapons in the Syrian Arab Republic”
The letter of transmittal was signed by Professor Ake Sellstrom, Head of Mission, and Dr. Maurizio Barbeschi, signing for the WHO component.
On page 21 of this 85 page report is stated:
“Khan al Asal, 19 March 2013: 111. The United Nations Mission collected credible information that corroborates the allegations that chemical weapons were used in Khan al Asal on 19 March 2013 against soldiers and civilians.”
Page 22:
“Jobar, 24 August 2013: 113. The United Nations Mission collected evidence consistent with the probable use of chemical weapons in Jobar on 24 August on a relatively small scale against soldiers…”
Page 114, this assessment is based on the following:
(a) Interviews with survivors and clinicians and medical records confirm symptoms of organophosphorous intoxication:
(b) Blood samples recovered by the Syrian Government on 24 August 2013 and authenticated by the United Nations Mission using DNA techniques tested positive for signatures of Sarin;
(c) One of the four blood samples collected from the same patients by the United Nations Mission on 28 September 2013 tested positive for Sarin.”
Page 23:
“Ashrafiah Sahnaya, 25 August 2013 117. The United Nations Mission collected evidence that suggests that chemical weapons were used in Ashrafiah Sahnaya on 25 August 2013 on a small scale against soldiers. 118.
This assessment is based on the following:
(a) Interviews with survivors and clinicians and medical records confirm symptoms of organophosphorous intoxication;
(b) Blood samples recovered by the Syrian government on 24 August 2013, authenticated by the United Nations Mission using DNA techniques, tested positive for signatures of Sarin.”
[Soldiers, in all cases, referred to Syrian national forces. I did not catch the March exposure first time around.]
http://undocs.org/A/68/663 for the entire report.
thank you for providing links. I will get to them when I can.
The British have the chemical fingerprints of Assad’s sarin.
Hersh’s report was banned/black listed(?) over here, it appears. Finally published in London Review of Books…
Red line/Rat Line
Also…Whose Sarin?
The report of Turkish press conference…Turkish Sarin?
You don’t have to believe Trump to recognize that the Kremlin line is transparent gobbledegook. They’re not even bothering to make the lie fit the known facts. Strictly for the consumption of the Useful Idiots.
As someone said above, why? Are both Assad and Putin truly idiots? What advantage did they hope to gain? Was the objective to simply kill innocents? How many were actually killed in the bombing?
all of these are good questions.
motive isn’t proof, but we shouldn’t ignore it.
neither of them are idiots; neither of them are reluctant to kill people.
if I consider the “cui bono” question, the answer I see is “whoever benefits, it SURE isn’t Assad”.
Assad could benefit, that’s why the cui bono question has so many answers. his departure will come up when fighting stops in Syria, with the Obama trajectory, some kind of peace talks, coalition, etc etc. of course all that is out now
I guess pretty much everyone can potentially benefit. Except the dead, but nobody asked them.
[i think i’m misquoting some previous cynic]
it’s difficult, but must be assessed. that’s btw why disinformation has been brought to bear – make everyone give up on trying to reason anything out. don’t fall into that trap
As someone else pointed out, all that oil that Putin is sitting on in Siberia just got stupidly more valuable mere minutes after the US attack on Syria.
Why do it? Because you can make yourself stupidly richer with a bunch of Kabuki Theater.
You seem to be assuming that Assad or Putin are harmed by Trump playing with his boom-boom toys. Blowing up some unoccupied bunkers at a remote airstrip with advanced warning hardly represents any real harm to Assad or Putin’s interests.
Regardless,
One simple explanation is that once Trump signaled the US wasn’t interested in ousting Assad he believed he was free to resume his previous behavior.
Another one is that this whole exercise is agreed upon by all parties to shore up / add to their respective domestic popularity.
I’m sure there are other explanations that are consistent with the known facts, unlike the explanations offered by Putin and Assad.
>>this whole exercise is agreed upon by all parties to shore up / add to their respective domestic popularity.
as the discussion continues I’m seeing the sense of this.
but they can’t admit that’s the game. Every one has to make up a story, no matter how ridiculous.
I’m reminded of the scene in The Maltese Falcon where Peter Lorre, having been interrogated by the police, tells Bogart “I wish you had come up with a better story, I felt distinctly like an idiot repeating it”.
Terrorizing your opponents is not exactly a novel tactic.
Bashar Assad–a MEDICAL DOCTOR fer gawdsakes…his father, Hafez, sent his army to destroy the town of Hama in 1982 after a Muslim Brotherhood uprising. See Wikipedia for a sourced summary. Thousands were killed. Why not look for a reason for that, too?
Oh right. Terrorizing the opposition.
Why did the Mongols sack Baghdad and kill mist of the city’s inhabitants in 1258? Who benefited? Personally, I don’t think the Mongols did it. The alleged massacres were either mass suicides or the action of Martians..
Meanwhile Greenwald is busy lighting the tattered remains of his reputation on fire.
Remember kids, the only people in the world who have any agency when something bad happens are those perfidious Democrats. Making Trump bomb Syria just like they made poor GHWB invade Panama. For shame!
Here’s a fucking novel thought. Instead of bombing an airfield why not try a little diplomacy or inquiry first. Would that fucking airfield have waited a few more days until we made a fuss and presented this to the UN, sought allies and asked Assad and Putin what was going on?
That’s Obaman Weakness 101 !!
This is a regime of unilateralists.
The airfield would have waited, but delays give time for the not-desired truth to come out.
from a NYT article yesterday, quoted at dkos
Obama actually wanted to believe he was shooting at the right target. That’s totally un-American, and things are back to normal now.
not to worry about the airfield
Even better, get Colin Powell to make that UN presentation, and Donald Rumsfeld to talk about unknown unknowns.
The affair may be just some sort of cynical “test” of the newly installed regime of Der Trumper. He (fraudulently) campaigned as an isolationist non-interventionist, while railing at Obammy’s pathetic “weakness” in the ME. Somewhat contradictory, but whatever. Upon “election”, Der Trumper has surrounded himself both with generals and white nationalists. But what is he actually going to DO in the face of military provocation? And who’s really in charge?
So an opportune chemical attack occurs. And instead of foisting the burden of decision on the hapless Repub peanut gallery, er, Congress (as Obama did), we have an immediate return to “Bomb Bomb Bomb ’em!” militarism. A “show” of “strength” and “resolve”, precisely as one would expect general(s) in charge of the “Defense” Dept and NSC would advocate. And which Trump immediately acceded to, being completely out of his depth and in thrall to his generals—having no civilian advisors beyond the boobish Reichsmarschall and son-in-law Reichsfuhrer.
Trumper is too ignorant even to imagine the possible military options in response to the chem attack. Generals Mattis and McMaster did all the work and urged “strength” upon Trumper, who as a closet interventionist was easy to convince. And that tells the “testers” (be it Assad or Putin) something, I guess.
But, as everyone has pointed out, what’s the next step after lobbing the 60 tomahawks? That always turns out to be the La Brea tar pit for the generals….and we don’t have no Cheney/Addingtons in the room to look to for overall guidance. Always easy to pull the trigger, but what’s the caper?
Please. Trump’s son in law is Jewish. Calling him “Reichsfuhrer” is beyond callous and insulting.
Well it can’t be too insulting or dear ole Jared would have ditched dear ole Father-in-Law when he started openly courting and hiring the Nazi’s, neo-Nazi’s, and out white supremacist who don’t believe Jared is really human because he’s Jewish.
Yes, I’m aware, but your observation would be a wonderful inoculation against all Hitlerian analogies, which would be a big price to pay!
The bigger question is how son-in-law Jared squares becoming the principal civilian advisor to a regime of white supremacist sympathizers. I doubt the kitchen will become too hot for him…
Der Fuhrer, of course, had no family to skew the factional infighting during the Thousand Year Reich.
sweet of you to worry, but seems he can take care of himself
You say: “Obama had credibility.”
First of all, Obama’s initial “credibility” was based upon his good looks, his youth, his race and his clever way with words.
It gradually washed away as it turned out that he was not the “Peace President” he had been sold as being, but rather the “Kinder, Gentler, More Covert War President.”
The last remnants of that credibility were shredded by Snowden, Assange, Wikileaks et al, and the final blow came from Clapper’s outright lie to the Senate plus his not being fired for it.
And…how in this false news-laden, PostFactual world can you possibly trust the NY Times or anyone who works for it after the Judith Miller revelations??? Who is “Adrian Chen?” Is he somehow totally uncompromisable? Who among us can really say that, let alone someone who works at the top level of the top-level media organ of the U.S. Pravda network?
Please!!!
ASG
I swear I’m not trolling you with this question, but are there ANY media sources you use (I’m not holding you to 100% trusting them criteria but ones you personally feel are credible) to get actual information on which to base your assessments and opinions/predictions?
I’m genuinely curious as to what you use to navigate in your own discernment of facts rather than spin in our post-factual world.
The only way that I have found to get some serious idea of what is happening is this:
I skim Google News, Drudge Report and the few truly leftist sites…Counterpunch being the best of a fairly raggedy bunch.(And I include BooTrib in hat group of “raggedys”. )
Then I sort of let the various total contraindications settle in my mind while I do other things…make breakfast, practice my instruments, go to a rehearsal or gig, go shopping, cook, whatever. Eventually I begin to see a clear path through all of the bullshit, at least as far as I am personally concerned.
Then I post on it.
A sincere question answered sincerely.
AG
I’ll check out Counterpunch. Hadn’t heard of it. Thx for the tip.
The other sources (GN and Drudge) are just aggregators of links, though. Are there any primary sources (meaning paid editors and journalists) whose work you for the most (or at least, enough) part, trust? ProPublica, for example?
I think there’s a danger in relying just on gut when the gut still needs facts that have been chewed upon and are digesting (or curdling!)
Major aggregators “aggregate” according to preconceived political positions.
Google is reliably centrist; Drudge is reliably right wing/alt. right. Some aggregators like HuffPost and others are so “left-centrist” as to be laughable…much like PBS, a great deal of BooTrib and all of dKos…and Breitbart etc. are so off the wall to the alt. right as to be generally ridiculous.
Survey the lies and try to extricate the truth.
That’s the best that I have been able to come up with.
Plus of course…going outside with your eyes and ears wide open, traveling through all social strata in which you can pass relatively unnoticed and listening to what’s being said.
That’s the best I can do…sorry. Too many lies, too many liars and not enough time in life to figure them all out.
Gotta guess, sometimes.
Later…
AG
Putin or Trump? Who to believe???!!!
Believe neither!!!
Duh.
AG
very very complicated; interesting discussion of which I link 1 tweet
and btw imo the absence of security at Mar a Lago is imo a feature not a bug
i’m sure that is an interesting discussion.
I don’t accept the starting premise that not accomplishing this feat is a “US” failure, even if I believed the feat possible.
from what I think I know about the situation, the non-Islamist anti-Assad groups are not a large enough group to call a “critical mass”, and their single biggest group are the Kurds, whose success is not acceptable to our NATO ally Turkey.
yes, that was his point and the point Booman has been making for years about why Obama held off involving us more deeply – Assad, for all his war-crimeness, is secular. the Islamicist groups threaten a religious bloodbath.
Hypothesis: The Soviet installed government in Afghanistan was better for the long term interests of the United States than its ouster.
absolutely, but it’s kind of late now.
Second hypothesis: Assad is better than the alternatives in Syria.
Either one supports the people on the ground, or you don’t imo. I supported the Arab spring because I support freedom of people more than I do “nation states” and “stability”. Supporting Assad is to confine the people to permanent dictatorship. That doesn’t mean going in there and toppling toppling dictators like we did with Iraq, but it also doesn’t mean intervening for the sake of regime preservation. Assad remains because we sacrificed the Syrian people on the altar of better relations with Iran and the Iranian nuclear deal, and because of Russian intervention.
yes, but the drain on the Soviet Union created long term instability, the former king, or family, was waiting to get back into power. Listened to Lawrence O’Donnell on Rex Tillerson (‘ the morally blind leading the morally blind” – L ODonnell says that Rex Tillerson’s statement last week on Syria – “let the Syrian people decide about Assad – set this whole thing in motion. “one of the stupidest things ever said by a SOS. I guess that’s why I find what Carne Ross has to say about things so interesting, he was in the British gov, long time insider, fascinating guy.
i.e. the drain contributed to the collapse of SU and the king was living in DC at the time iirc.
and that’s why Turkey’s involvement [supporting Islamicists vs. the Kurds] must be looked at.
Can I ask if that was ever possible?
I wonder if going back a step, not disbanding the Iraqi army, would have started things out on a different path. Both Iraq and Syria had dictator/ war criminal -run stable secular regimes,
The hurdle that the various peace conferences, such as the Brussels one (is it still on?) confront:
Would Putin?
Nicholas Blanford, Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor: US strike sends message to Syria: what it didn’t say
More:
Consider the source of this assertion:
None of the ambiguity of Pat Lang’s coverage shows up here; it is only the certainty that Assad did it, that Assad’s immediate removal is key to a solution, and that US policy should hasten that with a military strategy. The veteran of the Barack Obama administration did not have the subtlety of Obama’s policy. There is strong evidence that the US is being played by Sunni jihadis supported by Saudis and the Gulf States in support of the subverting forces they (and Brennan’s CIA?) placed in Syria. Those include jihadis that are hostile to the US and US interests.
That’s why I don’t think this represents part of Trump’s Syria policy but his China policy. After McMaster’s quote, I would start watching how McMaster discusses policy and strategy. My intuition is Trump is not a hands-on guy but a delegater and accountability enforcer (“You’re fired.”)
Where Pat Lang’s analysis leads is Turkey and its jihadi proxies.
In other takes on the endgame–because this is what we are talking about here–the RAND Corporation has an analysis that essentially writes the Kurds, especially the YPG Kurds who have been doing a bit of the fighting in Syria out of the vision of post-DAESH Syria and reduces the Syrian government’s territory to 30%-40% of the land area. A balkanized Syria to go with a balkanized Iraq. If balkanization could be transformed to federation, there might be hope for stability. Anybody see that happening, given the external meddling from regional and international powers?
Absent a partition on our terms, I think we just stick with chaos.
What does this mean?
http://thehill.com/policy/international/327673-russia-recognizes-jerusalem-as-israeli-capital
Splitting the issue:
Kinda looks like 1948.