I’m no longer really amused by the gamesmanship that allows us to claim moral victory if we lose an election by less than 30 points. In this case, it’s not even remotely true because the problems for Republicans in Kansas are highly specific to that state. Gov. Sam Brownback may be a hard-right Christian politician but his name is a dirty word even among his evangelical base. If the Democrats do well in the special election tonight, it will have a lot more to do with Brownback that anything to do with Trump.
Again, even a win isn’t a win unless it’s followed up by another win in November 2018. I think the American electorate is fed up with people overpromising and underdelivering. The 4th congressional district of Kansas is a solidly Republican seat. The Democrats might rent it for a few months because people are mad at Brownback but more likely the Democrat will get blown out and you’ll hear people claiming it was closer than it should have been and that this means something.
We already know that people hate Brownback and that moderate Republicans are occasionally willing to throw in with Democrats in Kansas to fend off the religious nuts. That’ll happen tonight to one degree or another. But it will have almost no meaning outside of Kansas.