Update-1 :: Final tally – 100%
Macron 23.75%
Le Pen 21,53%
Fillon 19.91%
Mélanchon 19.64%
○ Le compte officiel du Ministère de l’Intérieur@Place_Beauvau
Estimate of Actual Votes, Not an Exit Poll at 20:00hrs
Macron 23.7%
Le Pen 21,7%
Fillon 19.5%
Mélanchon 19.5%How does France’s system of vote estimates work?
Unlike many countries which operate exit polls asking people how they voted, the initial vote estimate in French elections – in use and steadily perfected since 1965 – is based on an actual vote count.
Pollsters select about 200 polling stations around the country, in rural areas, small towns and urban agglomerations, carefully chosen to be as representative as possible of the country as a whole.
The numbers are then run through a sophisticated computer program that adjusts them for past results and assorted variables, and produces a national vote estimate.
○ A watershed moment in French political history, “le 21 avril” in 2002
More below the fold …
My latest post this morning …
France Turning On Brexit and Trump
Before the Dutch election, the media expected a similar populist move as was seen in the UK referendum and the weirdest US presidential election ever. It did NOT happen! The populist anti-immigration party PVV of Geert Wilders disappointed.
I expect a similar counter-move in the France election 2017. The FN of Marine Le Pen has peaked too early and she may hope to beat Fillon for the second spot for the run-off election. With the excentrics of Donald Trump in the first 100 days, the disappointments of high expectations and in the UK a conservative PM May who chooses party politics over the interest of a divided nation after the Brexit 2016 vote.
○ ‘We are all Brenda’ : Hilarious video of shocked woman reacting to General Election news sparks empathy
○ EU hopes snap election will boost May’s mandate | Politico |
○ Theresa May’s election ‘power grab’ slammed by EU’s Guy Verhofstadt | The Guardian |
Both Trump and May, who seem to get along well together, will have a negative effect for the undecided voters today in France. I expect both Macron and Fillon to get a little bump relative to the most recent polls of April 20-21.
Earlier diaries concerning the French and their presiential Election2017 …
○ Trump: ‘Big Effect’ On French Election … No Interference!
○ French Election: Crunch Time – Part 2 by Marie3
○ Opinion polling and the French Elections by Frank Schnittger
