When internal migration favors red states, that helps Republicans in the short term even if the people who are moving are more progressive in their personal politics than the communities they’ll be entering. Most obviously, red states will gain Electoral College votes and extra congressional seats after the next census, and blue states will potentially lose them.
But, over time, it can change our politics profoundly. We’ve seen growth in northern Virginia turn that state from red to purple to blue. North Carolina is a swing state now. Georgia is getting close to that point. And, Texas will be purple by 2028 at the latest. In fact, the Democrats are already targeting Texas congressional districts, the state was closer than Iowa (previously a swing state) in the last election, and polls have come out showing that Sen. Ted Cruz may be an underdog in his reelection effort.
Needless to say, if Texas turns purple it will sap the Republicans of funds. And if it turns blue, they’ll need to capture the whole Upper Midwest to compensate or they’ll be out of luck in presidential contests.
The Irishman is interesting Millennial(44 yrs old). Already has a DNC scalp. Probably has better Spanish than the Castro brother.
Beto O’Rourke–Texas Tribune
Millennials are now 44 years old? I thought the break date was 1980, but I can’t keep up with marketing frameworks.
If anything, it’s some hot-shot 25-year-old progressives that I want to see take on primaries. With some innovation against a very self-satisfied, vapid, and overpriced way of doing campaigns effectively.
I’m skeptical of a 25 year old Senator. What real world experience would he/she have?
OTOH, even a yellow dog is better than Cruz.
Constitution requires US Senators to be a minimum of 30 years old so your 25 year old couldn’t qualify.
Was just quoting TarHeelDem. Thought Senator was older than rep.
Gen X then? I dunno.
Is the Democratic Party willing to throw down some of the cash they have been hoovering out of this state for decades to back his Senate campaign? If Castro, sure; if O’Rourke, not so sure. Iron Law of Institutions and all that.
At least neither is a Republican who got religion.
Gen X, I’d say. I’m 40 and I feel like I’m on the line between Xer and millennial, but that’s only because I hate aspects of both and yet show aspects of both.
Businessman – don’t trust him. What’s his agenda besides marijuana? Does he employ H1-B’s?
Real estate developer. Yep, a dicey profession in Texas, for sure.
He is not blue dog on social issues, probably, but economic??? That killed Wendy.
Thought I read that he had a software company. I have lots of experience there and only one good boss/owner.
You are right. Software. My bad.
already posted on this guy twice, but no one reads my comments – btw that’s the reason I pretty much stopped commenting here, what’s the point.
anyway, just watch some of his feed from the bipartisan road trip town hall. as he drove from El Paso to DC w. Will Hurd they answered every single call in question about anything and everything including immigration, the wall, etc. watch a bit of it and you can assess him. answering every single call in question on any hot issue – speaking spanish as well, btw, while driving on the interstate [he ended up doing most of the driving,
I linked the bipartisan road trip a couple times – hours, 2 days drive, 1600 mi of the guy plus a statement at the House from him and Hurd when they returned about bipartisanship.
Thus the Trump Hail Mary of deporting all of the future voters they can.
The prosperity of the Sun Belt and the poverty of the Rust Belt are upending long-term notions of what are red states and blue states.
But that might not be sufficient to change austerity to prosperity if those newly Democratic areas are as miserly as their surrounding Republicans. Or war to peace if they are as in hock for their prosperity to the military industrial complex as California, Texas, Virginia, and Florida.
How about having some folks on our side who actually want to help, or,something like that.
In the aftermath of the 2000 election there was an argument about Florida between Michael Barone and Ruy Teixeira. Teixeira argued that the growth of the Hispanic vote would mean that Florida would inevitably turn blue.
Barone argued that the source of the internal migration to Florida tended on balance to be from the rural midwest, and as a result Florida would trend ever so slightly red. Anyone who has heard of the Villages knows why his argument makes some sense.
Florida is a case where the internal white migration has roughly balanced the growth in the Hispanic population (to some extent driven by the problems in Puerto Rico).
If you asked me in 2001 if Florida would have voted GOP in 2016 I would have said no given the demographic changes that were taken place.
Texas is surely interesting. Arizona was closer. We won Colorado, Virginia and Nevada, all states that Kerry lost.
But I am no longer convinced demographics is destiny.
Demographics is destiny, but details can have a big effect on how long it takes to get here. Voters are older, and so whiter, and combined with gerrymandering it could be decades before it’s truly impossible to get elected by appealing to racism. The surprise in 2016 was mostly that Trump was able to get the white electorate to vote more on racism/sexism than they had recently. To hang on for decades they have to get whites nationally to vote like they do in Mississippi, which is only 60% white but still ironclad Republican. Last year I would have thought that impossible but I’m no longer so sure.
I agree, these long-term demographic forecasts are no comfort. The only thing that will make any serious difference is for the Democratic Party to get real about Neoliberalism … now.
Can we move 100,000 Democratic voters to Montana and another 100,000 to Wyoming? Fed Ex them from California?
That’s three Senate seats.
Why do you hate Californians ? Get them from NY. They already don’t care about the weather.
So, the “demographics is destiny” notion is not yet dead?
The entire notion of the “demographics is destiny” is dumb. It requires that parties retain their basic character and demographic affiliation. Yet, we know certainly that parties mutate and modify their basic appeal. What is important today will not be such a key issue in 4 years. The issues of 1992 are barely recognizable today. And who remembers that the election of 1960 turned on the ownership of 2 small islands off the coast of China.
Go away, Nick.