With polls closing some news from the UK. A note on the stories: while I have some knowledge of UK politics I do not follow it closely enough to understand the background for some of the claims and counter claims.
The Conservatives are attacking Corbyn for past associations with the IRA. That the exchanges are for the moment dominating the press is hardly good news for Corbyn.
The Guardian has a good take on Corbyn’s speech on Manchester, and the campaign
Two weeks ago, when the Supreme Leader informed the country there was a realistic chance of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister, everyone dismissed the idea as scaremongering. It now turns out she was acting on insider information.
Only she knew just how mediocre she really was and that her mediocrity would be inevitably found out. Only she knew that she was planning to release a totally uncosted manifesto with policies that would have to be ditched before the election even took place. Only she knew that she was strong and stable enough to turn a 24 point lead in the polls into a mere five.
With Tory candidates hastily erasing the Supreme Leader from their campaign leaflets and Labour candidates having to backtrack a little on their promise that it was OK for people to vote for them as there was no chance of them winning the election, Corbyn chose to resume campaigning after the Manchester bombing with a speech in central London on national security.
This comes after a series of attacks by Labour on May for cutting local police support. See the video below.
All of this is happening against the backdrop of a race that has tighten very quickly, and very surprisingly. The change in subject isn’t good news for Labour generally, as the following from YouGov shows:
Will keep Britain safe from terrorism”
% Net trust
Theresa May +25
Amber Rudd -16
Jeremy Corbyn -18
Diane Abbott -53
Footage of May defending police cuts.
In 2015, @theresa_may said that criticism of deep police cuts was "scaremongering."
In 2017, the Manchester bombing happened on her watch. pic.twitter.com/CFp7zz1exa— Jeanette Sandernista (@JeanetteJing) May 27, 2017
The only poll taken since the event in Manchester shows a remade race. The projection below is based on the YouGov. If YouGov is right the Conservatives may not be able to get to a majority government.
The collapse of UK IP had pushed the Conservatives to the mid-40’s. At the start of the campaign Labour was below their 2015 number, and Corbyn’s personal numbers were terrible.
The start of Labour’s recover goes back to 2 weeks ago. The Conservative Manifesto, which included a provision that would hit retirees backfired, and as a result the Conservatives have dropped from the high 40’s to the low 40’s. Conversely, Labour’s recover has been remarkable. If Yougov is right, they are now 8 points above their showing in 2015, and 2 points above their showing in 2010.
If the most recent YouGov poll is right, the Tories may not get a majority. https://t.co/g842EmAPLW #UKElection2017 pic.twitter.com/WZIVwJM8WY
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) May 26, 2017
Corbyn’s Labour Manifesto (the one Blairites called the shortest suicide note in history) was leaked on May 11 and released a week later. This is the same timeline as the Tory manifesto and the dementia tax, so its hard to allocate the poll tightening between the two.
But its still essentially impossible for Labour to win (though there is an outside chance at a coalition).
True, although May struggling through Brexit with a minority government would at least be a nice consolation prize.
One wonders if it might stop Brexit.
Labour could form a coalition with the SNP (which is Party of the left).
Right now I have the two at around 300 seats. They would need to find about 25 more.
Somebody’s missing on that chart, or there are unlisted tossups, because the numbers don’t add to 650. If the Tories are just 2 short of an absolute majority there’s no left coalition government, obviously. They’ll have to win those last 25 on their own, basically, because the other left parties (LD, PC, and GRN) are fringe parties on that poll (8 for all of them combined).
IMO the only way to stop Brexit is a left coalition where SNP makes stopping Brexit a condition, and Corbyn accedes (not guaranteed at present). Even with that there will be backbench Labour resistance – the MP are heavily remain, but that’s not everybody, and a left coalition would probably have a very narrow majority. May doesn’t seem the type to back down for a mild reversal. The bill is passed and the letter is sent; May won’t stop unless she’s kicked out of office.
There are 18 seats in Northern Ireland that are not on this chart. The NI seats are not really contested by the major parties.
You might get some of the NI parties to join a Conservative Majority.
Labour might try to govern as a minority government and rely on SNP to win no confidence motions.
On the terrorism issue, Corbyn seems on firm ground by attacking the Tory govt for its cuts in recent years to police forces in the UK (surprising fact to me that Corbyn brings up), and going after the Tories for the UK following the US into military involvement in wars in the ME and Libya.
Boris Johnson for the conservatives is hitting back hard at Corbyn for his comments, but the average voter is probably not going to be pleased to hear about the security cuts (assuming they weren’t aware of them), especially after Manchester.
Corbyn needs to continue hitting hard on this one, as it does seem obvious that doing the same thing over and over has just been getting the same results. Of course, there is May’s dementia tax and other social cuts to mention.
Too bad May has refused any face-to-face debates until the vote June 8. Just one televised Q&A appearance where they will both answer questions. Over here, that would be called out as dodging a debate and hurt the candidate, but so far May has not been harmed.
It is a high stakes exchange. Corbyn’s attack is similar to an argument Clinton made in ’92 with respect to crime in general.
If the weekend polling confirms the Yougov poll, this is going to be one interesting final 10 days.
And no one saw that coming 2 weeks ago.
High stakes indeed, but necessary. Looking back after the major terror attacks in Paris late 2015, Corbyn apparently had been ready to make the foreign wars > terrorism connection in a major speech, but decided to pull those remarks.
It’s high time the prominent pols over there and here start admitting what is obvious. And also stop blaming Russia for all the world’s problems.
On another front, it was pointed out to me that the 3M major leaders in Europe currently — May, Merkel and Macron — all have produced no children of their own. Some dismal demographic trends in Europe on display there. Things are changing there very quickly, and not always for the better.
“Don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes?”
Armed conflict is heating up in Libya. And the UK IC may have some explaining to do about how and why the Manchester bomber was so free to exit and enter Libya and the UK.
Theresa May served as Home Secretary from May 2010 until July 2016.
Theresa May warns police: cuts mean 'fewer people, fewer buildings' (Nov. 2015)
See my diaries about the Manchester Arena Suicide Blast …
○ From Libyan Jihad to a Strike in UK’s Heartland
○ UK: Tory Lead Cut to Single Digits; Manchester Terror Attack
Corbyn and May will appear today for a potentially important televised Q&A non-debate, 8:30 pm Brit time, on Sky News and Channel 4. Corbyn won the coin toss and will take audience questions first, then be grilled by the aggressive host Jeremy Paxman. May then gets her turn.
As far as I can tell, this should be available to watch live on Sky News YouTube.
Have you seen a review of it that’s objective enough to be worth reading? The headlines are blaring that both were weak, but with the thumbs on the scale for May or against Corbyn, that doesn’t tell me much.
Given that the UK msm has been widely perceived as, and criticized for, being too hostile to Corbyn, and given the reviews in that msm following the debate which collectively added up to slightly more negative points against May, I’d conclude Corbyn came out a bit ahead in that Sky event.
Most frequently noted among all was the devastating blow delivered by co-host Jeremy Paxman in the sit-down with May, when he said
“If I was sitting in Brussels and I was looking at you as the person I had to negotiate with, I’d be thinking `she’s a blowhard who collapses at the first sign of gunfire’. Isn’t that right?”
Jeremy Paxman didn’t go easy on Corbyn of course, but his too-frequent interrupting of the Labour leader may have created a sympathy backlash.
Now in yesterday’s BBC debate, with the Home Sec standing in for the absent May, while I haven’t seen the reviews today, my sense was that the May rep was getting hammered, once effectively by Corbyn and numerous times by the SNP and LibDem candidates, more than she was able to dish it out. Hammered on May’s refusing to debate, on police cuts, on the dementia tax, coddling the wealthy with favorable Tory policies, and a few other issues.
Corbyn did well, though he is a soft-spoken type and not a naturally aggressive debater and that debate had a number of aggressive debaters.
I think there’s one more event to go, on Friday. I’d also be surprised if the upcoming polls don’t continue to show movement in favor of Labour.
Here’s a fair review in the Guardian (hardly in the tank for Corbyn) of some of the debate proceedings from yesterday, largely in agreement w/my assessment above.
Brutally mocking comments from LibDem leader Farron directed at May and her stand-in over May’s failure to show up, w/must see videos:
Well done by the rather impressive LibDem leader. The Green candidate also was effective.
Thanks. Basically what I’d gleaned from a cursory scan. A grudging acknowledgment that Corbyn did well and May flubbed in the TV interview and a no show at the debate may have done her less damage than showing up would have.
Don’t know that Fallon is naturally glib or he put all his time into debate prep. The problem with the LibDems is that once in office, they are another vote for the Tories. So, perhaps his job was to limit Tory defections to Corbyn.
Found it amusing that the political analysts have concluded that Corbyn showed up for the debate because Labour’s poll numbers have improved. As I said in an earlier comment, it was strategic on Corbyn’s part to skip the first debate. Regardless of the polls, he was unlikely not to skip the second one.
btw — noticed that Jim Messina (Obama’s campaign guy in 2012, Cameron’s in 2015, and May’s in 2017) made a clever debate strategy move for Baucus. So, entirely possible he concocted May’s “no show” strategy. Why muck with a twenty point lead?