Estimates updated with the last polling

The last prediction:

The last estimate. Note that 36 seats are within 2 points. A small swing will have a large effect. https://t.co/g842EmAPLW @DemFromCT pic.twitter.com/aDhWSOsSHb

— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 8, 2017

The best summary of the race: it shows the outcome if a pollster is right.

There is enormous volatility in this race: more than I have ever seen outside of a primary.

This estimates the seats for each. This is the best way to look at potential results: it shows the volatility. pic.twitter.com/6Sn3Spvjdt

— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 8, 2017

The scope of Labour’s comeback is remarkable.

I went back and looked 50 years for US elections, and back to ’93 for the UK (though only 2001 on are in the chart).

There is only 1 election that is close: the 1968 Presidential Election.

As I show below, the spread in polling (ranging from Conservatives +12 to Conservatives +1) is also historic.

Here is evidence that Labour tend to under perform.  
There is also evidence that the Labour surge has stopped, but there is no evidence it has receded.

Thursday will be dramatic indeed.

And the fact that it is should remind everyone how unpredictable politics can be.

Labour's surge is historic.  Only Humphrey in '68 made up as much ground this fast- 50 years ago.  pic.twitter.com/KixInP5XVI

— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 6, 2017

This is the updated projection:

My prediction updated.  Note: the spread in polling is very large and there are a large number of seats within 3 points. Anything can happen pic.twitter.com/Bbn6MCn1rB

— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 6, 2017

What is remarkable is the wide spread in polling.

The current spread in UK polling (ranging from Cons +12 to Cons +1) is the largest in decades. @britainelects @ForecasterEnten pic.twitter.com/EKvfNDwBxd

— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 6, 2017