One week ago, I wrote a piece called September Will Be a Meat Grinder in which I explained (once again) that the Republicans will need to, among other things, avoid a government shutdown, raise the borrowing limit, and pass a new budget with specific tax-related reconciliation directives if they want to avoid a filibuster and pass tax reform with a mere fifty Senate votes. Today, I read this at Axios:
The Hill agenda for September is punishing, with colossal fights on debt limit, government funding to avoid a shutdown, and the budget (to provide a reconciliation vehicle for a tax overhaul). Steve Bannon called it the “meat-grinder” month.
Maybe Steve Bannon did call it “the ‘meat-grinder’ month.” All I know is that I didn’t get the phrasing from him. In fact, the first reporting I saw accurately describing how the budget and reconciliation need to work for tax reform came from the New York Times two days after my piece.
The president wants to push through a tax overhaul by year’s end, but first Republicans must approve a budget for the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1 to trigger special procedures that would allow the package to pass the Senate with only 51 votes, instead of the 60 required for most legislation.
And that’s the same piece that first reported on Bannon talking about September as a meat-grinder:
Before his exit, Mr. Bannon repeatedly warned Mr. Trump and John F. Kelly, the White House chief of staff, that September could be the breaking point for the Trump presidency — “a total meat grinder,” Mr. Bannon told them.
So, either some strange kismet and coincidence were involved here, my words were mixed up and plagiarized, or I’m just ahead of the game. To be clear about the meaning of my analogy, I didn’t intend it the way John Godfrey Saxe did when he said “Laws, like sausages, cease to inspire respect in proportion as we know how they are made.” What’s going in the top of the meat-grinder next month isn’t a bunch of proposed laws, but the Trump administration itself. The rest of the Axios fragment seems to borrow from me on that point, too.
The Hill agenda for September is punishing, with colossal fights on debt limit, government funding to avoid a shutdown, and the budget (to provide a reconciliation vehicle for a tax overhaul). Steve Bannon called it the “meat-grinder” month.
These fights will require complex tradeoffs, with the House and Senate leadership in the driver’s seat. So the path to even getting to a tax reform bill is long and precarious. And Trump has little political capital outside his shrinking base.
There is one original insight from the Axios piece, though, and that pertains to the president’s state of mind:
President Trump’s understaffed, self-conscious administration faces a cascade of crises and heavy lifts this fall that it’s ill-equipped to shoulder simultaneously:
What Trump is thinking, per a source: “The president’s state of mind is that he is doing fine, and the media/establishment are in denial.”
It’s like pulling teeth to get the media/establishment to accurately report the battlefield for September and the true scale of Trump’s challenges, so I should perhaps be a little forgiving if Trump doesn’t understand the odds against him. But I am not in a forgiving mood and the most I can muster is a little gratitude that the president is waddling so confidently into the thresher blades.
What can anyone say?
The Washington Monthly gets read.
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What I have found over the years is that you are ahead of the game. Which is why I come here every day.
Perhaps the media are still wrestling with how to fit their stories into the BothSidesDoIt framework. Or how to cast the whole problem as the fault of Democratic obstructionism.
Or how they can pull eyeballs away from FoxNews.
Ratings–>advertising revenue–>profits
They know they are not going to pull any more non-GOP eyeballs; lots of us gave up on them decades ago.
Individual reporters and analysts use bothsiderism as a dodge to not show their biases (it doesn’t work). And Democratic obstruction as a story is just another play for the GOP audience.
Most of the media have written off the hardnosed Democratic audience as already being captured by certain personalities that they hired out of the progressive media. And they are quite willing to tar MSNBC with being “biased” because of that.
The billionaire bosses do intend to destroy the Democratic Party as long as it tacks to the progressive side of the spectrum. That explains the Democrats that are most frequently invited other than for the Maddow, Hayes, and other ahows in the “progressive ghetto”.
Lots of executives looking forward to those Trump tax cuts.
Just as long as your analysis is fueling some of the zeitgeist, BooMan.
Trump is self-assured that outgoing communication from his Twitter motivating his faithful followers will dominate public reaction because the media will amplify it. His interest in incoming information has to do with how it treats his ego.
Most cases, that is the perfect environment for blindsiding.
When it happens, we will have the datetime stamps on the posts to demonstrate your primacy.
So we all know by now that Trump doesn’t comprehend how our government works. He sees himself as a king who issues orders and expects total fealty from his servants. He feels he doesn’t have to understand the complex workings of law, he just expects his minions to get things done and quit dragging their feet.
When McConnell and other members can’t force their terrible plans for demolishing healthcare, fixing the debt ceiling or changing taxes, Trump throws Twitter tantrums and threatens their job security. This won’t achieve his desired effects, though. McConnell has to be pissed to have been scolded and threatened, and Steve Miller has to be feeling wary. Surely no one is feeling confident about September and the blades of doom.
Personally, I hope they all get minced into tiny bits.
He thinks the people in Congress are his employees that he can order around. He doesn’t realize they are the Board of Directors that can fire him.
Most likely washed away with Harvey. Shutting down the government while America’s 4th largest city is just a couple of weeks out from a 500 year flooding event would be political suicide. I think even Trump’s most nihilistic advisors have to realize that.
Heard about this possibility on NPR this morning. That the aid money gets lumped into a CR, making it near veto-proof.
This is the 4th “500 year” disaster to hit Houston area in recent years. In the era of climate change, there is no longer once-in-500 year events; these are now the new norm.
That’s a good point if one were dealing with rational actors, but we are of course long, long past that point.
As for the 500 year flood thing, that may have been a way to calculate a “rain event” such as Harvey in the natural climate, but the natural climate is now also gone, replaced by a new and (so far) unknown man-made climate. The old measuring sticks of weather risks in the natural climate simply have no continuing relevance or meaning.
Harvey’s floods will almost certainly be an event of much greater frequency in US HurricaneLand, happening every decade or every 5 years or every 25 years. No one on earth now has the slightest way of knowing. We have (led by the American “conservative” movement) intentionally and willfully engineered a completely new domestic and world climate. And no one can predict very much about it, except that it will be substantially more “extreme” (with more severe downpours and droughts) than the climate under which human civilization developed.
Harvey is merely a harbinger….
How y’all likin’ it so far?
The budget isn’t under deadline, is it? They can put off the budget until later with a continuing resolution and then if they pass it later it’s still usable to dodge the filibuster for tax reform – the same plan they had for Obamacare repeal. So that “just” leaves two critical divisive issues to deal with.
that’s correct.
Is there no time limit on when the budget for fiscal year 2018 would have to be passed?
Yes. Oct. of next year. They are trying to scramble to get a 2017 budget fixed before we start the 2018 budget in Oct of this year.
Right now they are playing with the 2017 and 2018 budgets. It’s really not that big of deal to just move to playing with the 2018 and 2019 budgets.
Well not that big of a deal if your goal is fucking over your constituents as apposed to actually doing your job and running the government.
Just saw a tell. Photo of the donald in meeting preparing for trip to TX wearing a baseball cap. Did not have the usual MAGA slogan…it was white with three big letters…USA. I take that white means surrender and I’ll leave the USA logo to y’all.
I’ve been told that’s actually product placement and Trump makes that white USA hat and a red hat with USA on it.
Purportedly $40 each.
You have been ahead of the curve for some time now, so it isn’t surprising that it would appear like plagiarism when the rest finally catch up to your insights.
You don’t let the shiny objects distract you.
So I guess the switch to the thresher metaphor is your attempt to see whether the metaphor gets picked up by the MSM and other political media and, if it does, it would confirm that they are borrowing from your writings, right?
When I envision the Trump/McConnell “profane” shouting match (which the Times or the Post said was a few weeks ago, and they “haven’t spoken since” I think of the notorious transcript of the Australian PM phone call where the poor guy is saying over and over that they can’t accept any refugees that arrive by boat and Trump keeps not getting it, assuming over and over that the refugees are “criminals” and that’s why they’re jailed (when in reality they’re just a bunch of refugees being held in a jail) and finally Trump says “What’s this boat thing?” and then answers himself, “I get it; I get it…it’s because of where they come from”…
…I can imagine the same sort of thing happening with McConnell, without the international diplomacy, so McConnell is reduced to screaming “You fucking idiot, sir, it’s not about the filibuster; it’s a budget reconciliation so it’s only fifty votes, but you didn’t caucus and you attacked each seat directly so of course we can’t get the tax cut because it didn’t fucking pass” and Trump continues to not get it, threatening to Tweet him to death etc.
It must be excruciating…but then it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
That seems like the most likely way it went down.
McConnell has to be kicking his dog every night.
“I really, really, really hate Ted Cruz, but at least he can fucking read, and count, and control his bladder, I mean tweeter.
“God, I promise I won’t complain about Cruz, the House Freedom morans; I won’t lie about tax cuts, or Obamacare, or get more than another 3 evil Supreme Court justices confirmed, if you just rapture Trump into the sweet hereafter. I promise, I promise. You can even take my lovely wife up to heaven if I have more than one, no two, fingers crossed behind my back.
“Lord of Republican money and hate, you know I’m serious if I won’t cross more than two fingers and I promise to stop lying about tax cuts. I know the wife thing is old, I like her and all, she’s been great getting those cabinet positions that no honest Republican wants, but it’s not like she pulls down the big bucks, so yeah, she’s just something I thrown in to sweeten the deal.
“What do you say? President Mike ‘I can’t be trusted alone with a woman or any sharp object’ Pence will be a real theological upgrade, amirite?”
In Olden Days, people wouldn’t have had much trouble concluding that an historic solar eclipse neatly bisecting one’s country (into red and blue halves no less!) followed hard upon by a (miraculously appearing) hurricane destroying a major city portended doom for all. For today’s MSM, things are a bit murkier, haha.
Even given the extreme, long term, manifest incompetence of the ideologically retarded Congressional Repubs, the unqualified boobery of their monstrous Trumpolini figurehead and the braindead uselessness of the incompetent white electorate, predicting the outcome of the looming September Slaughter is a challenge. Do “conservatives” really believe their own bullshit? Will Dems do anything other than their usual Mommy party cave? Will Ryan’s Reprobates really take down the global financial system by intentionally laming the US Treasury bond, the building block of every abusive financial “product” our Wall Street Wizrds now devise for plutocrat consumption?
As Booman’s beloved Spock would say, “fascinating”. Might be a very good time to be 100% in cash, but who knows? Bombs away, USA!
Also, too, it’s almost impossible to believe that an unqualified alt-right shit-manufacturer (and consumer!) like Gruppenfuhrer Bannon knew much about the upcoming Congressional calendar or spent much time trying to manage much of anything.
Much like imagining that our current Gub’mint by Generals (including our lauded ex-Marine Chief of Staff) will have much to contribute to the looming Battle of September, other than adding to the chaos.
As the humble Sgt Schultz would often say, “I know nothing! Nothing!”
“As the humble Sgt Schultz would often say ‘I know nothing! Nothing'”
Hahahaha! Too true!
Speaking of 1960s TV comedies, BooMan’s repurposing of Driftglass’s “waddling into the thresher blades,” which was originally meant for David “Bobo” Brooks, reminds me that my wife said that Trump’s announcement that he was running for President reminded her of Penguin running for Mayor of Gotham City. Ever since, I’ve called Trump “The Penguin” on my personal blog. She’s not the only one who thought so. Here’s a video parody using the same theme from 1992’s “Batman Returns.”
I could go on and on with images and videos, but then this comment would look too much like one of AG’s.
You miss the entire point Martin! Trump doesn’t care about any of that crap. Getting a budget done, staving off financial ruin (“unless it affects Trump properties”), dealing with foreign crises. None of it.
All he cares about is making corrupt insider deals he’s dictating right now to Jr. & Eric. And he keeps in good with his idiot base by a constant stream of “F-U’s” that he routinely gives to the rest of America, the Judicial System, the federal bureaucracy, both political parties, the media, and pretty much anybody else in USA not wearing a MAGA cap.
By that measure he’s doing fine! Houston might drown, but those losers didn’t vote for me anyway. So, “too bad” is about the level of interest he can muster.
Unless total financial collapse suddenly throws millions of right wing imbeciles in Georgia and North Carolina & Ohio, then Trump doesn’t care. Period. And nobody is going to convince him that anything HE does is less than “totally amazing!” or “the Best!”
So, good luck convincing him with arguments like “Sir, that would be terrible. The DOW would collapse amid massive financial chaos and everybody would blame the White House.” He needs his wall and doesn’t want to listen to reasons why that will never happen.
Especially because it will never happen.
You miss the entire point Martin! Trump doesn’t care about any of that crap. Getting a budget done, staving off financial ruin (“unless it affects Trump properties”), dealing with foreign crises. None of it.
All he cares about is making corrupt insider deals he’s dictating right now to Jr. & Eric. And he keeps in good with his idiot base by a constant stream of “F-U’s” that he routinely gives to the rest of America, the Judicial System, the federal bureaucracy, both political parties, the media, and pretty much anybody else in USA not wearing a MAGA cap.
By that measure he’s doing fine! Houston might drown, but those losers didn’t vote for me anyway. So, “too bad” is about the level of interest he can muster.
Unless total financial collapse suddenly throws millions of right wing imbeciles in Georgia and North Carolina & Ohio, then Trump doesn’t care. Period. And nobody is going to convince him that anything HE does is less than “totally amazing!” or “the Best!”
So, good luck convincing him with arguments like “Sir, that would be terrible. The DOW would collapse amid massive financial chaos and everybody would blame the White House.” He needs his wall and doesn’t want to listen to reasons why that will never happen.
Especially because it will never happen.
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