“The Left” Should Gaze At Their Own Navel

I’m pretty scrupulous about avoiding the ongoing fights between the Clinton and Sanders wings of the party, and I’m not going to engage on those terms here. Instead, I’m just going to offer some friendly advice to Ryan Cooper, who was my predecessor as the web editor of the Washington Monthly. He ought to attempt a paradigm shift, at least for long enough to see how it looks.

Cooper is at pains to explain to us why “leftists” are mistrustful of three African-American politicians whose names are mentioned as serious, potentially viable presidential candidates for 2020. The primary motivation for providing us with this explanation is to beat back accusations that they oppose them as possible contenders because of their race.

Freshman Sen. Kamala Harris of California is mistrusted, Ryan says, because she is a prosecutor. As for specifics, she took a campaign contribution from now-Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and failed to bring him up on charges without an adequate explanation. Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is a favorite of Barack Obama, but he works for Bain Capital, the same vulture capitalist organization that Obama tied like a millstone around Mitt Romney’s neck. And Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, like all New Jersey senators since the days of Alexander Hamilton, is too close to Wall Street. He has not yet been forgiven for defending Bain Capital and other vulture capitalists during the 2012 campaign.

In other words, there are real and somewhat obvious reasons for “the left” to see each of these candidates as captured or compromised by some of the nastier elements of the financial sector. Thus, it’s disingenuous and unfair to attack their critics as racists.

A column that said nothing more than this would be needed and helpful, but Cooper goes a little further and offers these candidates some advice:

If they want to win over the left — and Harris, who has expressed at least mild support for tuition-free public college (for families with income less than $140,000), a $15 minimum wage, expanded Social Security, and Medicare for all, would probably be the most credible person to attempt this — they need to first explain their recent history.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, they need to make a symbolic rhetorical break with the despised donor class.

Human beings are very good at pattern-recognition, and the same talent that allows Cooper to see the “donor class” ties of these three prospective presidential candidates allows others to see how race ties them all together as well. If the latter pattern leads to lazy and uncharitable generalizations, perhaps the same is true of the former pattern. Can we agree at least that in both cases there is a problem with how things are perceived?

The paradigm shift I’m advocating here involves setting aside for a moment the discussion of what these three African-American politicians need to do to explain their recent history or make symbolic breaks with their past. Instead, “the left” should consider what they need to do to overcome the perception among many African-Americans that the Sanders wing of the party is somewhere between tone-deaf and hostile.

To be candid, I’m not saying that either exercise is more legitimate than the other. In fact, part of what I’d expect Cooper to learn from this exercise is that there are real limitations to both ways of analyzing the political rifts on the left.

But let’s acknowledge that Harris, Patrick and Booker are immensely talented, accomplished and charismatic leaders, none of whom can be fairly dismissed based on the connections each has to the financial sector. Lumping them together, too, as if defending Bain Capital is the same as working for them, or as if Booker’s record is really similar to Harris’s, just invites others to question your open-mindedness and motives.

As a more practical matter, “the left” should consider that David Axelrod is not wrong in his analysis:

Obama strategist David Axelrod has had several conversations with [Deval] Patrick about running, and eagerly rattles off the early primary map logic: small-town campaign experience from his 2006 gubernatorial run that will jibe perfectly with Iowa, neighbor-state advantage in New Hampshire and the immediate bloc of votes he’d have as an African-American heading into South Carolina.

Add to this that the African-American community will probably put more weight on the fact that the Obamas are endorsing or at least noisily encouraging Patrick to run than on his job at Bain Capital. They’ll hear that Valerie Jarrett says, “President Patrick is what my heart desires,” and it will count for more than what a bunch of Sanders supporters write on Twitter. If Patrick runs, “the left” will need to come up with a substantive and respectful way of opposing him that doesn’t amount to condemning the Obamas by association. This will be harder to do if the perception sets in in the black community that the Sanders left is opposed to every African-American with an actual shot at being president.

In fact, I suspect Cooper’s fear that the Sanders left will be characterized this way even if it isn’t fair is what led him to write this piece in the first place. But if he sees the vulnerability, his main advice is not to his cohorts on how they can and must avoid this fate. His main advice is to the African-American candidates on how they can avoid taking criticism that they have zero prospect of actually avoiding.

“The left” has already built a narrative around each of the candidates and they’re not going to let those narratives go. Cory Booker can disavow political action committee money, but that will never end the criticism of his record as New Jersey mayor and senator. Kamala Harris cannot go back in time and refuse a political donation or prosecute a man she declined to prosecute. Deval Patrick can no more escape his ties to Bain Capital than Mitt Romney could. If “the left” insists on reducing these individuals down to these unflattering characteristics and refuses to see them in full, then they’re going to invite a well-deserved backlash.

The reason I’ve been putting “the left” in quotes throughout this piece is because it’s absurd to suggest that the vocal opponents of Harris, Patrick and Booker have sole ownership of the term. And they must know that they can’t forge a truly left-leaning takeover of the Democratic Party without making deep inroads with people of color. Moreover, David Axelrod is correct that the early primary schedule could favor a talented, charismatic African-American candidate who has the official or unofficial blessing of the Obama team.

So, what Cooper should try focusing on, at least for a while to see how it looks, is how “the left” can avoid marginalization on the basis of perceived racial insensitivity. In my opinion, neither side can avoid their fates here. “The left” will attack these black candidates as a group for their Wall Street connections no matter how many allies advise them that this will be unwise and self-defeating. But, if you’re trying to be constructive, you might consider that the best way to protect “the left” from charges of racism is not to insist that they have a point, even if they do. It might be better to do what is expected by decent people, and that’s to be fair and focus on the strengths of these candidates and the fullness of their records rather than lumping them together and dismissing them as sell-outs.

How a G20 breaking news story becomes a sinister meeting

[Update-1] As I’ve stated before as my opinion, when anyone from the Trump campaign talks “adoption” it’s a code word for talking “sanctions”. When leaders of two most powerful nations engage to improve their personal relationship and offer diplomacy a chance for a more peaceful world, I will applaud both of them. The setting of the spouses dinner at the G20 in Hamburg was a sparse moment and president Trump took the initiative. For so many pundits seeing a conspiracy or part of a plot to undermine the Republican slogan of “America First” is just sad. Nothing nefarious for two leaders to have a private chat where the NSA can’t eavesdrop and leak a transcript. Great show!

See my new diary on the preposturous actions from U.S. Congress to monopolize the energy market as the empires have done for over a hundred years leading to global wars and millions of deaths.

Martin Longman @BooMan used to be on the same page as Ian Bremmer of the EurAsia Group … not anymore!

Just three links @BooMan referring to Ian Bremmer:

Bush’s Declining Political Capital by BooMan on July 24, 2005

“Ian Bremmer hits the nail on the head in his piece in The Australian.”

Eurasia Group is involved in the Iraq oil Production Sharing Agreements by AliceDem on June 6, 2007

And my recent diary …

During Yeltsin Era, UK and US Stripped Assets Off Russia

Yesterday Martin Longman wrote a front page story …

Looks Like Trump and Putin Colluded on Adoption Story

The original version of this event was a statement from Ian Bremmer in his newsletter on Monday July 17, 2017 …

Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer in his newsletter [Monday July 17]

Continued below the fold …

Ian Bremmer discussed it with Charlie Rose …

Monday 07/17/2017
Ian Bremmer, the president of the Eurasia Group, discusses President Trump’s second meeting with President Putin during the G20 summit.

Charlie Rose >>> see Bloomberg article

Ian Bremmer >>> see CNBC interview and article

Trump tweet: Even a G20 meeting at a dinner is made to look sinister.
Ian Bremmer: Yeah, I, I  … I’m sorry there are people that make it look sinister. I don’t think it’s sinister. I think it’s a lack of experience. indifference to taking advice from the smart people he has around him. Those that are telling him not to say things on twitter. Not to handle, not to make comment that he does. Also not to take a meeting for an hour with Putin on the sidelines without a translator that can take notes. He doesn’t listen. I don’t think that is sinister at all. But he also said it was fake news …

Trump Had Second Conversation With Putin While at Summit

By Jennifer Epstein | 19 juli 2017 00:50 CEST | 19 juli 2017 03:29 CEST |

  • White House confirms previously undisclosed encounter
  • Formal meeting between two presidents earlier lasted 2 hours


The U.S. and Russian presidents had a conversation during a dinner July 7 at the summit in Hamburg after spending more than two hours in a formal bilateral meeting earlier in the day, Michael Anton, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said.

“There was a couples-only social dinner at the G-20,” Anton said in response to questions. “Toward the end, the president spoke to Putin at the dinner.” Such informal side encounters between leaders are common at summits, but the White House didn’t reveal the Trump-Putin conversation at the time.

A separate statement distributed by the White House press office said the conversation between Trump and Putin was brief, came toward the end of the dinner and was among many that the U.S. president had with other leaders at the event. First lady Melania Trump was seated next to Putin and the conversation came about when Trump went over to his wife.

Such informal encounters are common at international summits and leaders occasionally use the social events to emphasize or expand on points made in formal settings. Former President Barack Obama had a similar session with Putin at the 2013 G-20 meeting in which small talk between the two leaders led to them pulling up chairs in the corner of the room for a 20-minute discussion about Syria. That conversation was disclosed at the time.

The encounter between Trump and Putin was first reported by the Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer in his newsletter on Monday [July 17]. Bremmer, citing unidentified sources, wrote that Trump got up from his seat at the dinner and sat down next to Putin and the two spoke “animatedly” for about an hour. Bremmer said his sources told him only Putin’s translator was present for the conversation.

The White House statement said that each couple attending the dinner was only allowed one translator and that the Trumps brought with them a Japanese translator because the president was seated next to the wife of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan.

During their formal meeting, Trump said he confronted Putin about Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election but, by his own admission, only pressed the issue twice before moving onto other subjects. Trump later told reporters that he’d like to invite Putin to the White House when the timing is right.

Eurasia’s Bremmer: I broke the story about the second G-20 Trump-Putin meeting because ‘nobody else’ did (Video)

Matthew J. Belvedere | Berkeley Lovelace Jr. | Wednesday, 19 Jul 2017 | 2:29 PM ET

Ian Bremmer, president of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told CNBC he reported on a second, undisclosed G-20 meeting between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin because “nobody else was going to break it.”

Saying he’s not in the business of breaking news, Bremmer told “Squawk on the Street” he decided to talk about it Monday evening with Bloomberg’s Charlie Rose to have a longer conversation as opposed to just making headlines. After that, the story went national.

In a note to Eurasia clients Monday morning, Bremmer first disclosed the G-20 dinner meeting between Trump and Putin, which took place on July 7, just hours after the two leaders held their formal, two-hour bilateral meeting at the summit in Germany.

The White House on Tuesday confirmed the second meeting, describing the encounter as “a brief conversation at the end of a dinner.”

Bremmer took issue with that characterization, and indicated others knew about the meeting.

The dinner meeting “might have been 55 minutes,” he told CNBC. “The people I talked to weren’t timing. It wasn’t five minutes. Brief implies it’s five minutes or 10 minutes.”

In details from the Eurasia note, Bremmer wrote about the sequence of events, according to his sources.

All the rest is playing people’s fear and fantasy. What a dangerous and crazy world we live in. Indoctrination … heading for a military confrontation between nuclear powers dividing East and West based on lies, fake news and pure propaganda. Repeating lies often enough for it to become a fact in people’s daily lives. Insanity! Apparently the PES of HRC has managed to penetrate the minds of most Democrats …

Hillary Clinton says the Russians had to be guided by Americans | Recode’s Code Conference |

Hillary Clinton charged that misinformation and “fake news” spread over the course of the 2016 presidential campaign had to have been “guided” — potentially by the campaign of President Donald Trump.

Appearing onstage at the Code Conference, Clinton pointed to a report by the government’s top intelligence agencies, released in January, which found Russia sought to “influence” and “undermine” the election. The FBI is still investigating ties between agents of Moscow and the Trump administration, but Clinton said Tuesday she is “leaning” in a direction that suggests the two coordinated.

“The Russians, in my opinion … could not have known how best to weaponize that information unless they have been guided … by Americans,” Clinton charged.

Clinton specifically pointed to the release of John Podesta’s hacked emails, which had been published online by WikiLeaks. She said the document dump only came an hour after a story in the Washington Post unearthed a 2005 tape of Trump making a controversial comment about women on the set of Access Hollywood.

Going forward, Clinton said, “I think it’s fair to ask, how did that actually influence the campaign, and how did they know what messages to deliver? Who told them? Who were they coordinating with, and colluding with?”


Clinton’s latest comments continue a postelection emergence in which the former Democratic nominee continues to point fingers for her loss, though other accounts of the Clinton campaign have put more fault in her corner.

Clinton Says She Was ‘Right’ About ‘Vast Russia Conspiracy’; Investigations Ongoing | NPR – June 1, 2017 |

Hillary Clinton’s new book, ‘What Happened,’ will address the 2016 election | LA Times |

Hillary Clinton’s next book, titled “What Happened,” will focus on the former secretary of State’s loss to Donald Trump in November, and will be a “cautionary tale” about Russia’s alleged role in interfering in the election, the Associated Press reports.

Clinton’s publisher, Simon & Schuster now has a Web page for the memoir, which will be published Sept. 12.

“For the first time, Hillary Rodham Clinton reveals what she was thinking and feeling during one of the most controversial and unpredictable presidential elections in history,” Simon & Schuster writes. “Now free from the constraints of running, Hillary takes you inside the intense personal experience of becoming the first woman nominated for president by a major party in an election marked by rage, sexism, exhilarating highs and infuriating lows, stranger-than-fiction twists, Russian interference, and an opponent who broke all the rules.”

Hillary Clinton. Interview with Vladimir Pozner (Video)

I was surprised in reading more from Ian Bremmer from the Eurasia group writing about fossil fuel and the Caspian Sea basin, oil & gas pipelines, the Iraq oil Production Sharing Agreement, Libya, Syria, Kurdistan and Russia preserving its fossil fuel wealth under Putin. Resource nationalism and sustainable development: a primer and key issues. Fascinating reading from a person well versed in International politics and high places. How the media mutilated his news about the Trump – Putin chat at the G20 spouses dinner.

RussiaGate: 8th Person at Meeting Identified
Is RussiaGate Really IC-Gate – Forbes

Lots of politics in nonfiction television at the 2017 Television Critics Association Awards

I concluded ‘The Handmaid’s Tale,’ ‘Stranger Things,’ and ‘The Good Place’ lead speculative fiction nominees at Television Critics Association Awards on my blog with “I might write about the reality and news and information program nominees later.”  I think now fits that criterion, especially as the awards ceremony is this Saturday, August 5th.

At first glance, what I found remarkable about the news and information nominees was the inclusion of political humor shows.  At second glance, the number of political documentaries also struck me.

OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN NEWS AND INFORMATION
“Full Frontal With Samantha Bee,” TBS (2016 Winner in Category)
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver,” HBO
“The Lead With Jake Tapper,” CNN
“O.J.: Made in America,” ESPN
“Planet Earth II,” BBC America
“Weiner,” Showtime

While I agree that both “Full Frontal With Samantha Bee” and “Last Week Tonight” are excellent sources of information — in fact, I called “Last Week Tonight” “the best news program on TV today, even if it is considered entertainment” — both shows are primarly comedy about the news, not the news itself.  Still, it says a lot about our times that the comedians do a better job of covering important stories than the actual journalists.  Many of today’s stories, particularly the political ones, are absurd and deserve nothing better than to be laughed at.

On the other hand, some stories deserve a more serious and longer look than the evening news can give them, so they become the province of documentaries.  Two of them, “O.J.: Made in America” and “Weiner,” were also nominated.  The former has been nominated for six primetime Emmy Awards, while the latter probably should have been nominated for at least one.*

Rounding out the field are “Planet Earth II” and “The Lead With Jake Tapper,” the only true news program nominated.  The former has ten Primetime Emmy nominations, while the latter couldn’t even pick up one at the News and Documentary Emmy Awards; the Emmy voters prefer Anderson Cooper, who earned three nominations there, but that’s a story for a future entry.

Speaking of preferences, Samantha Bee, who has six nominations for her regular show and the “Not the White House Correspondents Dinner” special, is the returning winner and favorite, at least for this award.  On the other hand, I expect John Oliver will beat her again at the Primetime Emmy Awards for Talk Variety Series.
Politics also showed up in the next category.

OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN REALITY PROGRAMMING
“The Circus,” Showtime
“The Great British Baking Show,” PBS
“The Keepers,” Netflix
“Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath,” A&E
“Shark Tank,” ABC
“Survivor: Game Changers,” CBS

Three of these stand out as not being standard reality shows.  “Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath” has two Primetime Emmy nominations for Informational Series or Special and Sound Editing for a Nonfiction Program.  It’s not a reality show, despite what the television critics think.  Neither is “The Keepers,” which has an Emmy nomination for Documentary or Nonfiction Series.  Finally, “The Circus” straddles the line between reality and documentary, as it covered the presidential primaries in more or less real time; I found it both entertaining and informative.

If I thought the critics would vote for a reality show, I would think they would vote for either “The Great British Baking Show” or “Shark Tank.”  That’s not what I expect.  Instead, I suspect they will vote for either Leah Remini, a story about Hollywood that other people in Hollywood would like, or “The Keepers.”  Sorry, “The Circus,” just be happy to be nominated.

That’s enough of the Television Critics Association Awards for now.  Stay tuned for more about the Emmy nominees.

*I’m biased, as I have been following this story for four years and think it deserves more recognition beyond being a political scandal.

Originally posted to Crazy Eddie’s Motie News.

Looks Like Trump and Putin Colluded on Adoption Story

When the New York Times initially reported the story of Donald Trump having a second unplanned meeting on July 7th with Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit, they also reported that the next day, on the return trip on Air Force One, a statement was drafted for Donald Trump Jr. so he could respond to questions about an undisclosed meeting he had organized between himself, Jared Kushner, Paul Manafort and a Russian lawyer.

Here’s how that early reporting looked:

The evening after his two meetings with Mr. Putin — the first lasting 135 minutes and the second an hour — Mr. Trump returned to Washington. On the Air Force One flight back, his top advisers helped draft a statement about a meeting his son Donald Trump Jr. attended last year with a Kremlin-connected lawyer who promised damaging information about Hillary Clinton.

The statement said that the meeting was primarily about the Russian ban on Americans adopting Russian orphans. Sometime later, on July 19th, the president explained in an interview with the New York Times what he had talked about with Putin during his unscheduled meeting at the G20 dinner.

“We talked about Russian adoption. Yeah. I always found that interesting. Because, you know, he ended that years ago. And I actually talked about Russian adoption with him, which is interesting because it was a part of the conversation that Don [Jr., Mr. Trump’s son] had in that meeting.”

In this time period, Trump and his lawyers and surrogates denied that Donald Trump had been aware that the story about Donald Jr. was coming and only learned about it when everyone else did after the story broke in the New York Times. They also denied (necessarily) that Trump had any role in crafting the statement on Air Force One.

There turned out to be quite a few problems with this story.

First, on July 13th, Michael Isikoff reported for Yahoo News that “President Trump’s legal team was informed more than three weeks ago about the email chain arranging a June 2016 meeting between his son Donald Jr. and a Kremlin-connected lawyer.”

More than three weeks before July 13th, places White House awareness of the story back around June 20th or so. So, first we’re asked to believe that Trump’s lawyers did not make him aware that his son and son-in-law were in some legal jeopardy and that the collusion story was about to get a big boost. That’s not credible.

Second, this means that Trump knew the story was going to break before he talked to Putin, which means that it’s no small coincidence that they talked about adoptions and then adoptions became the cover story.

Third, it’s now clear that Trump not only participated in the drafting of the statement for his son, but he actually overruled the legal advice he had available on Air Force One and dictated the misleading adoption attempt at a coverup.

Fourth, the same reporting shows that the Trump Jr. statement was a topic of discussion among Trump’s advisors “on the sidelines” of the G20 summit, meaning that they were debating it before Trump had a second unscheduled hour long chat with Putin at the last night’s dinner.

On the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Germany last month, President Trump’s advisers discussed how to respond to a new revelation that Trump’s oldest son had met with a Russian lawyer during the 2016 campaign — a disclosure the advisers knew carried political and potentially legal peril.

The strategy, the advisers agreed, should be for Donald Trump Jr. to release a statement to get ahead of the story. They wanted to be truthful, so their account couldn’t be repudiated later if the full details emerged.

But within hours, at the president’s direction, the plan changed.

Flying home from Germany on July 8 aboard Air Force One, Trump personally dictated a statement in which Trump Jr. said that he and the Russian lawyer had “primarily discussed a program about the adoption of Russian children” when they met in June 2016, according to multiple people with knowledge of the deliberations. The statement, issued to the New York Times as it prepared an article, emphasized that the subject of the meeting was “not a campaign issue at the time.”

As these facts have been disclosed and made public, the administration’s story has changed. They now admit that Trump played a part in the drafting of the statement but they insist that he didn’t “dictate” it. Supposedly, this is all okay because Trump was just showing a fatherly concern for his son.

If I tried to make a list of all the lies the administration has told in this matter, I’m not sure I could capture them all.

Instead, I’ll just give a little timeline. Sometime around June 20th, the president learned that the media was aware of a meeting his son had organized at Trump Tower with Kremlin-affiliated Russians. At that point, he presumably asked for all relevant information about the meeting and tasked people with organizing a response. While he was in Germany at the G20 meeting, he and his advisers learned that the story was about to break. They strategized about what they could use as a defense. The president spontaneously joined Putin at the July 7th dinner with no American interpreter present and discussed the Russian adoption cover story with him. On July 8th, on Air Force One, he drafted or “dictated” the Russian adoption cover story over the protests of his legal team. After the story broke, Trump insisted that he had no prior knowledge of the meeting. He and his lawyers and surrogates insisted he had no role in drafting the statement.

What Trump didn’t count on was that the New York Times would obtain actual copies of emails detailing that the meeting was pitched to Donald Trump Jr. by assets of the Kremlin as an opportunity for the Kremlin to help Trump get elected. This blew up the adoption cover story that he and Putin had agreed to at the G20 dinner.

The only part of this that isn’t already proven is my surmise that Putin was a partner in the cover story. But I can’t see it any other way.

McConnell Defies White House on Tax Reform

A day later, I’m still confused about the Republicans’ plans for enacting tax reform. One thing that is clearer than yesterday is that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell intends follow the original roadmap and utilize the budget reconciliation process. This is part of an overall trend of the Senate defying the White House which has spawned several articles in response.

I thought White House legislative director Marc Short and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin were clear that they wanted McConnell to give up on the reconciliation process. Even most of the congressional Republicans have concluded that they cannot govern alone with no help from the Democrats. And, with the president still demanding that the Senate complete their work on health care before moving on, McConnell’s plan would both defy that instruction and make it impossible to satisfy.

The reason is underreported but fairly simple. To pass tax reform with reconciliation rules, McConnell needs a new budget to pass with reconciliation instructions. Once a new budget passes, the old one that contains the reconciliation instructions for health care will be superseded and useless. McConnell is signaling (without saying) that the health care effort is well and truly dead.

He’s also defying common sense, because the Republicans want tax reform enacted before Halloween so that it can have some impact before the midterms, but McConnell’s strategy will require the GOP to pass budget bills in both the House and Senate, reconcile those bills together, pass that reconciled bill with the reconciliation instructions, and then pass a big tax reform bill that utilizes those instructions. He needs to get all that done while simultaneously navigating the debt ceiling and pushing through several other must-pass bills, including one (or several) that will prevent a government shutdown. Yet, between now and the end of the fiscal year, the Senate will only be in session for twelve days. McConnell is also sending mixed messages. He has suggested that, unlike with the health overhaul effort, there will be hearings on tax reform. But there’s certainly no time for hearings if they want to pass something on the preferred schedule. Is he abandoning the schedule, too?

This has caused confusion in the reporting, as you can see below:

Sen. Orrin G. Hatch (R-Utah), who leads the Senate’s tax-writing panel, said on the Senate floor Tuesday that he would pursue a more deliberative process than Congress used during the health-care discussions, holding public hearings and working closely with Democrats.

Less than an hour later, McConnell poured cold water on that idea, saying that it was unlikely many Democrats would seek to work with Republicans and that they planned to forge ahead on their own if necessary.

He noted that 45 Democrats and independents sent him a letter Tuesday indicating they would not support a tax overhaul plan that widened the deficit, something Republicans have suggested might need to be part of their package. This, McConnell said, would force them to pass a tax bill along party lines using a process known as reconciliation, which first requires them to pass a budget resolution — something they also have not done yet.

“We have been informed by the majority of the Democrats in a letter I just received today that most of the principles that would get the country going again, they’re not interested in addressing,” McConnell said.

Everything is jumbled here. It’s pretty hard to add to the deficit using reconciliation rules, and it’s supposed to be impossible past a ten-year window. That’s why Bush’s tax cuts expired. Is McConnell conceding that the tax reforms will sunset?

The one thing that is fairly clear here is that McConnell is not willing to concede the need to compromise with the Democrats and is seemingly unwilling to enter into any process that would give the Senate Democrats an effective veto over the final product. That’s remarkable not because it’s out of character for McConnell but because even the Trump administration (if not necessarily the president himself) has already concluded that tax reform will need to be bipartisan and passed under regular order (with the prospect of a filibuster).

McConnell is acting in a more partisan manner that the administration and in defiance of their wishes. He’s asking the administration to trust him one more time to deliver with only Republican votes, and to believe him when he says that he can deliver on schedule. But the schedule is impossible.

Of course, the Democrats pounced on McConnell for using their letter as justification for going it alone. They wanted to know if McConnell was offended that the Democrats don’t intend to widen the deficit or just that they won’t agree to a giant tax cut for the rich. But that’s the politics of the question. What I don’t get are the nuts and bolts. How is this supposed to work?

I think it’s fairly safe to say right now that there will no tax reform enacted this year. It would be doubtful under any scenario, but McConnell’s path requires that too much be done in too few legislative days.

Misogyny In Politics: White Man’s Last Stance

New Zealand Labour boss rebuffs TV host’s sexist question | DW |

On her first full day in her new job as the youngest leader in the New Zealand Labour Party’s history and the second woman to fill the role, Jacinda Ardern found herself taking on media misogyny rather than focusing on her upcoming election campaign.

On live television, Ardern told cricketer-cum-chat host Mark Richardson that he went too far in inquiring about her family planning rather than her policies.

 « click for more info »

‘Retrograde debate’

On pop culture website thespinoff.co.nz, commentator Madeleine Holden called the fallout a “retrograde debate”: “Asking Ardern about her plans to have children implicitly reinforces the sexist notion that a woman’s primary role is motherhood, no matter how accomplished she is in other areas.”

Even Prime Minister Bill English, whose New Zealand National Party Ardern hopes to oust in national elections on September 23, leaped to her defense. “People who are out in the public eye, I think, benefit from a bit of support rather than questions that are really only about their private business,” English, a father of six, told reporters on Wednesday.

A nonscientific poll on The New Zealand Herald’s website attracted more than 9,200 self-selecting respondents, with 65 percent of people backing Ardern, who could become the country’s third female prime minister. In 1893, New Zealand became the first anglophone country to allow women to vote.

“Quite frankly, whether a woman intends on having children or not is none of their bloody business,” said Jackie Blue, New Zealand’s equal opportunities commissioner. “Oh, and by the way, it’s illegal to ask those questions, as they breach the Human Rights Act.”

Across the world, women have increasingly made headway in calling attention to casual misogyny – from sexism in the tech sector to gender bias in the arts. Even Germany’s mainstream right-wing Christian Democrats have acknowledged sexism within their ranks.

Jacinda Ardern becomes youngest New Zealand Labour leader after Andrew Little quits | The Guardian |

French women’s rights activist dies – breaking the glass ceiling multiple times over

Simone Veil, French feminist and politician who survived the Holocaust, dies at 89 | JTA |

Veil, a former minister of health who in 2012 was awarded France’s highest honor, passed away this week at her home in Paris, her family told the media in France on Friday. The scholar, former judge and feminist activist was 89.

A lawyer by education, Veil served as minister of health under the center-right government of Valery Giscard d’Estaing and later as president of the European Parliament, as well as a member of the Constitutional Council of France. In 1975, she led the legislation that legalized abortions in France.

President Emmanuel Macron offered his condolences.

“May her example inspire our fellow countrymen, who will find in her the best of France,” Macron said in a message to the family.

Former French President Francois Hollande presented Veil with the Grand Cross of the Legion of Honor at the Elysee Palace in 2012. Fewer than 70 people have received the Grand Cross since Napoleon Bonaparte established it in 1802.

Simone Veil, a native of Nice, was imprisoned at Auschwitz and later Bergen-Belsen before she was liberated in April 1945. She published the best-selling autobiography “A Life” in 2007. The following year she was admitted to the Academie Francaise, a highly prestigious institution comprising individuals, often philosophers and writers, recognized for scholarly excellence.

The institution, which has 35 members, of whom only six are women, was “revolutionized” by the admittance of Veil, a longtime campaigner for women’s rights, according to an obituary written about Veil by the RTL broadcaster.

The president of CRIF, the umbrella organization representing French Jewish communities, wrote in a statement that he was “immensely saddened by the passing of Veil.

“With her high standards and loyalty, this activist for women’s rights has left an indelible mark on French politics and its intellectual life,” Francis Kalifat wrote, adding that Veil had done so “with courage and dignity.”

Trump and Netanyahu Governments Both Steeped in Ethnic Supremacy, Ultra-Nationalism

Promoting ‘An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power’

Last December, the news was ‘Inconvenient Truth 2’ being released next year.  It’s now “next year,” so the news is How Donald Trump Made `An Inconvenient Sequel’ 10 Times More Relevant.

[H]ow could his follow-up bulletin of a climate-change doc, “An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power,” coming out eleven years later, possibly have a comparable impact? If you’d asked me a year ago, I would have said: It couldn’t. I would have said that Gore’s relevance as a herald of looming environmental disaster had been diminished by his own success. He no longer owned the issue, because we all did. And that would be a good thing!

But when you see “An Inconvenient Sequel,” which played at the Sundance Film Festival in January and opened yesterday, to promisingly huge numbers, in limited release (it goes wider next weekend), the film takes on a radical urgency that even Al Gore probably didn’t plan on. In a way that neither Gore nor the film’s co-directors, Bonni Cohen and Jon Shenk, could have anticipated, “An Inconvenient Sequel” makes the case for climate change as a fundamental political/economic/moral issue of the 21st century in a way that shoves it right through the teeth of Donald Trump’s destructive ignorance.

If Hillary Clinton were now president, the film’s politics would be more or less congruent with that of her administration. Instead, “An Inconvenient Sequel” plays as a bolder statement: a movie that might have been designed to answer the current rollback of environmental policy — and to address America’s backing out of the Paris Climate Accord, since the film documents, with fascinating on-site political detail, how, exactly, that accord was reached in 2016 (complete with participation from Chinese president Xi Jinping and Trump’s BFF Vladimir Putin).

The pulling out of the Accord was, of course, another case of macho semiotics on Trump’s part: “I’m not going to go to your girly-man Euro garden party. Too regulated!” But since the President of the United States is now a captive of magical thinking on the environment (his plan to take America back to the glory days of coal mining makes about as much sense as returning to the gold standard), we are once again in dire need of a crossover documentary that can demonstrate what the stakes are. And “An Inconvenient Sequel” does just that. The force of Trump turns this movie into an impassioned answer to the force of Trump.

Trump even opens the trailer, which I probably should have posted in April, when it came out.

Watch the new trailer for An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power, the sequel to An Inconvenient Truth. In theatres July 28, 2017.

That’s not all for promotion of the documentary.  Al Gore and One Republic, which plays the theme song to the movie, have been busy making the rounds of late night talk shows the past month as well.  Follow over the jump for clips from Stephen Colbert, James Corden, and Seth Meyers.
I begin with the earliest clip, Al Gore Received Illegal Campaign Materials In 2000 (And Reported It) from The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.

The 45th Vice President and ‘An Inconvenient Sequel’ documentarian Al Gore once found himself at a moral crossroads eerily similar to Donald Trump Jr.’s.

Colbert returned to this interview last week in Get A Hot Date With Al Gore’s Climate Change Pick-up Lines.

Former Vice President Al Gore offers up some steamy climate change-themed pick-up lines that might land you a date to his film ‘An Inconvenient Sequel.’

Gore showed up on James Corden’s show, where he took on Donald Trump’s latest tweets & takes.

James asks former Vice President Al Gore about President Donald Trump’s moves to break down much of the previous administration’s accomplishments, and the two discuss the 9-minute gap between tweets announcing transgender individuals are no longer eligible to serve in the military.

Gore was not alone in promoting the film.  The band OneRepublic sang the title song on Seth Meyers’ show.

Musical guest OneRepublic performs “Truth to Power” for Late Night with Seth Meyers.

When I first saw this, I thought “the band’s name alone is perfect for this song.”  Whether they will have the same success with it as Melissa Etheridge, whose song for “Inconvenient Truth,” “I Need to Wake up” won an Oscar, remains to be seen.  I wish them and Vice President Gore luck with this film.  If it’s good enough, I will be showing it to my students next year.

Speaking of success, Colbert, Corden, and Meyers are all nominated for at least one Primetime Emmy.  I’ll get back to that topic later.

Originally posted to Crazy Eddie’s Motie News.

Vox explains the gerrymandering cases before the Supreme Court

While I last mentioned gerrymandering and redistricting at my blog in John Oliver and Vox examine gerrymandering, the issue has continued to make news.  The top story on the issue is that the U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear arguments on two lawsuits contesting the gerrymandered districts in North Carolina and Wisconsin.  These cases have different bases, as Vox explains in The difference between racial and partisan gerrymandering.

The Court won’t use the same criteria for either case. Here’s why.

In America, voting districts are redrawn every ten years to account for shifts in demographics. Someone has to be in charge of drawing the new lines. And because voting is left to the states, in many jurisidictions this responsibility is left to partisan politicians. This creates an opening for politicians who might want to alter the outcome of an election through a process called gerrymandering.

But not all gerrymandering is the same. There are, in fact, two types: racial, and partisan. It is much more difficult to prove harm as a plaintiff in a partisan gerrymandering case than a racial one. And that distinction has to do with provisions of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

The North Carolina example was egregious enough that Vox used it as an example in one of its earlier videos on the subject, Gerrymandering: How politicians rig elections.

Most Americans think elections are rigged, and they’re right. Vox editor-in-chief Ezra Klein explains how gerrymandering works, and how to fix it.

As I’ve written before, I support the idea of nonpartisan, independent redistricting commissions to reduce gerrymandering.  As for the Supreme Court cases, I’m much more optimistic about North Carolina’s districts being remedied than Wisconsin’s, although I’m hoping that the Supreme Court does find that partisan gerrymandering has gone too far.

Originally posted at Crazy Eddie’s Motie News.

Will Paul Ryan Go Down Like John Boehner?

It’s painful to read the two posts I wrote last October explaining why I believed that Paul Ryan’s career as Speaker of the House was coming to an end. The analysis was solid, but it was premised on Hillary Clinton winning the presidency. When she lost, it gave Ryan a lifeline. It could turn out, in the end, that Ryan lasts longer than Mitch McConnell.

In truth, though, I still Ryan as the more endangered of the two, and the reason is primarily because McConnell does a better job of controlling his caucus. The reason I thought Ryan was done last October was that he was facing the same situation that had confounded John Boehner, which was primarily an inability to raise the debt ceiling or pass appropriations bills without relying on Democratic votes. It doesn’t look like Ryan is going to be able to do accomplish these things this year, either, even though he has a Republican in the White House instead of Barack Obama.

So, in this sense, what I wrote last year hasn’t changed:

If the Republicans do hang on to a narrower majority in the House and Paul Ryan seeks and gains the Speaker’s gavel again in the next Congress, he’ll immediately discover that he simply cannot pass spending bills without resorting to mostly Democratic votes, which will lead rather quickly to the same situation that Boehner found himself in where he was constantly under threat of being deposed. Ryan surely knows all this.

And the situation this year looks much like how I described the situation last year:

John Boehner fell as speaker because he could not get a majority of his own caucus to pass his spending bills and he could not get a majority of his caucus to pay our country’s debts on time. When Boehner agreed to step down, the Republicans came together to pass last year’s appropriations and to raise the debt limit as the price of being rid of him. That solved the problem for last year, but it didn’t solve the underlying problem. That’s why Kevin McCarthy wasn’t an acceptable replacement for Boehner. It’s also why no other Republican could step forward and win the support from enough Republicans to win the Speakership. The job was forced on Paul Ryan over his steady objections for the simple reason that no one else had the stature to win enough votes.

Since this is an election year, the Congressional Republicans have been willing to let this fight over debt and spending simmer on a back burner. After all, if their nominee becomes president, then they won’t be in this position of responsibility for funding the government of a Democratic president. But that doesn’t mean Speaker Ryan has had an easy time of it. He and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell haven’t been able to pass one stand-alone appropriations bill all year. In fact, Ryan didn’t even pass a budget, which is something Boehner always managed to do.

Isn’t it amazing that Clinton lost and yet we’re still in such a similar situation? Neither the House nor the Senate has passed a budget and while the House just passed four appropriations bills, they will certainly fail in the Senate. And they still have no plan for raising the debt ceiling with only Republican votes.

Talks between the White House and the Senate’s top Republican and Democrat broke up Tuesday with no progress on raising the country’s debt ceiling, an impasse that threatens a financial crisis if left unresolved.

The Senate and House have 12 joint working days before Sept. 29, when the Treasury Department says it would no longer be able to pay all of the government’s bills unless Congress acts. A default would likely set off a major disruption to the world financial system, with a stock market crash and surging interest rates that could send the economy into a recession.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has urged Congress for months to raise the debt limit, but the White House has lacked a unified message and run into resistance on Capitol Hill, where Democrats and Republicans are at odds on key tax and spending issues.

So little has changed, and one has to wonder if the same logic that led the House conservatives to oust Boehner will catch up with Ryan shortly if he can’t pull several rabbits out of his hat.

So far, McConnell’s failures have been both more visible and more epic, but he can get his members to vote to raise the debt ceiling. If he needs to go to the Democrats for a few votes, his caucus is more sophisticated and understanding than Ryan’s. He also has a better relationship with the White House where his wife serves in the cabinet. Steve Bannon once vowed to destroy Paul Ryan, and that was before Ryan abandoned Trump in the wake of the Access Hollywood tape. Plus, Ryan’s best friend in the administration was Reince Priebus who just got shit-canned for selling Ryan’s failed plan to use reconciliation to pass health care reform.

Ryan’s best job security is the thing that got him the gavel in the first place, which is that the Republicans couldn’t agree to any alternative Speaker. But he’s going to start groveling before Pelosi soon in a very unseemly manner, and I don’t know how well that will be tolerated.

What is the White House Plan for Tax Reform?

There’s probably a chapter by Sun Tzu that addresses the dangers of dealing with an adversary that is so transparently stupid that their actions are impossible to predict. I may need to go hunt that down, because I’m getting dizzy trying to figure out the Republicans’ plans for tax reform. Before I get started here, I have to warn you that this will be complicated and you will be expected to have done some of the required reading from earlier in the semester. In particular, the two lectures on the uses of reconciliation will be referenced.

Those two pieces explain the Republicans’ original legislative roadmap, which I’ve called “The Dual-Reconciliation Plan.” In short, the GOP could not agree among themselves to a budget last year so they took advantage of that failure to set themselves up to pass two budgets this year.  Back in March, the first time Obamacare repeal failed, I called it the “tricky tactic” that “destroyed Trump’s agenda.” Two weeks ago, I called it the explanation for why “Trump and the GOP Congress failed in just six months.” The plan called for using the first budget to pass their health care bill and the second budget to pass their tax reform. By splitting things this way, they hoped to accomplish several things at once.

By using last year’s hollowed out and unused budget bill, they could pass reconciliation instructions without having first worked out what would actually be in this year’s budget bill. This had the advantage of giving them speed. They could get started on Obamacare repeal almost immediately. By lowering or eliminating Obamacare’s taxes and thus the revenues in last year’s budget, they could thereby reduce the baseline against which this year’s budget would be measured. This would allow them to make larger tax cuts in the tax reform bill without it running afoul of Senate rules that prevent them from using reconciliation to increase the deficit. Finally, they could pass both reconciliation bills with 51 votes rather than the 60 they would need if they attempted to pass them in “regular order.”

As I’ve explained before, going the reconciliation route created a variety of constraints on what the Republicans could do. For example, it largely precluded them from addressing things that don’t have a pretty direct impact on taxes and revenues, leaving Obamacare’s regulatory structure mostly untouched. Since their plan for tax reform depended on a lower revenue baseline, they needed the first reconciliation bill to pass in order for the math to work on the second one. And, finally, they needed to treat the two bills as happening in two different fiscal years and as addressing two completely different budgets, and that meant that the health care bill, if not passed, would simply cease to exist the moment the Republicans passed a new budget. There was no flexibility in the order in which the two bills needed to pass. Health care had to come before tax reform.

If you want more clarity or detail on these admittedly confusing and hard to explain concepts, please follow the old links.

When the health care reconciliation bill failed in the Senate, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell placed it back on the calendar, which means that he can bring it back up at any time. The constraint on that is that he can’t bring it up again after the Republicans have passed a new budget with new reconciliation instructions. At times, it seems like no one understands this. And I can’t quite decide if the White House gets it or not.

Trump’s seemingly incoherent ravings that the Senate should not move onto other bills and issues until they have addressed health care don’t seem so insane if you realize that passing a new budget will destroy the old one. But there’s another possibility, which is that the administration actually understands this situation better than Congress does.

Let me try to explain.

If you read articles sourced to House Republicans that are only a week or two old, you’ll see that they envision tax reform as working through the reconciliation process that will only require them to get 51 votes when their bill goes to the Senate. That was the original plan, after all, and getting the votes of eight Democratic senators to overcome a filibuster would require compromises that the House GOP does not want to make.

Here’s a sampling of how the House Republicans have been explaining their position:

The House GOP budget includes reconciliation instructions for a deficit-neutral tax overhaul, as well as $203 billion in cuts to mandatory spending. If the House and Senate both pass and reconcile their budgets with a set of reconciliation instructions, they can use the resulting process to fast-track a tax overhaul without the threat of a filibuster in the Senate and rely solely on GOP votes.

“The budget is the gateway to tax reform,” House Budget Committee member Todd Rokita of Indiana said.

Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, is less optimistic. “You can’t get tax reform if you don’t have reconciliation instructions. You can’t get reconciliation instructions if you don’t pass a budget,” Jordan said at a recent forum at the conservative Heritage Foundation.

But the administration is throwing them a major curveball:

White House legislative director Marc Short said Monday the White House is not wed to using the often partisan reconciliation process to advance a tax overhaul, though senators were hesitant to rule out that procedural tool.

“We’ve learned how difficult it is to thread the needle with 52 [Republican] senators,” Short said at an event hosted by the conservative Americans for Prosperity at the Newseum in Washington, D.C…

…Short’s description of the tax bill moving through committees in early September suggests it would not include reconciliation instructions. The reconciliation process would allow the Senate to pass a tax bill with only a simple majority, instead of the 60-vote threshold that would require the support of eight Democrats under regular order.

“We’re not necessarily locked into that direction,” Short said of using the reconciliation process to avoid the Senate filibuster.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnunchin is parroting the same line. It appears that the White House does not believe that they can successfully pass tax reform without Democratic votes and they’re saying that they don’t want Congress to even try. If they don’t use the budget reconciliation process for tax reform, then they don’t actually have to pass a budget for this year at all. Remember, they never passed one last year. And as long as they don’t pass a new budget, the old one containing the health care repeal will still exist and can remain on the calendar. Perhaps later this year, Sen. Bob Menendez will be convicted and forced to resign his seat, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie can appoint a replacement who will give the Republicans the extra vote they need to pass their “skinny” repeal.

On the other hand, if their tax reform is going to require eight Democratic votes in the Senate, it’s not going to look anything like what the congressional Republicans were hoping to see.

Republicans’ partisan push to overhaul the health care system failed in the Senate, but House GOP lawmakers say they plan to stick to that approach in rewriting the tax code…

…Rep. James B. Renacci, a member of the Ways and Means and Budget committees, said it would be nice for Republicans and Democrats to come together to rewrite the tax code but that reconciliation remains the more pragmatic approach because it allows for a 51-vote threshold in the Senate.

“Otherwise, you’re going to be held hostage to 7 or 8 votes out of 535, which isn’t fair either,” the Ohio Republican said. Eight is the minimum number of Democrats that would be needed to pass a tax bill in the Senate if it didn’t move through reconciliation.

Another factor impacting the White House’s decision-making is that the House Republicans are way behind on passing a budget and seem to be at an impasse. The Senate hasn’t really even begun their work. If they want to get the tax reform ball moving, using regular order may be their best option.

This would be a wise decision on the administration’s part because it’s not likely they’d succeed in doing a tax reform with no Democratic input or support. And doing things this way would preserve their option to return to the “skinny” bill later if the votes materialize.

But I can’t be certain that Trump understands any of this. Does he realize that his tax reform is going to need the support of people like Sens. Jon Tester and Claire McCaskill? Does he understand that he can’t get those votes unless he gives them co-authoriship of the bill? Is he ready to explain this to his caucus, his base, and the Koch Brothers?

A tax reform bill does not have to be bad legislation. But all the Republicans’ hopes are pinned on creating a very bad bill, and certainly a much worse one than will be endorsed by eight Democratic senators.

I don’t know how to game this out. Will Mnuchin and Short be undercut by the president when he realizes what they’re advocating is a kind of unilateral surrender? Or is he more cunning than he looks and the one that gave them their marching orders?

I’m going to go to the library and check out The Art of War. Maybe I’ll find my answers in there.