On August 31st, I argued that pairing disaster relief with the debt ceiling was a no-brainer for the Republican leadership and that it could offer them a way out of the complete crack-up this September that I’ve been predicting for months.
To be honest, this was such an obvious move that I can’t take any credit for advocating it, and I’m not at all surprised to see that this is precisely the way they are going to go. It is significant, however, because it is a big, gigantic middle finger to the House Freedom Caucus and all the hard right deficit scolds. And we’ve all basically been waiting for the Republican leadership to tell these folks to go screw themselves for the entire time Trump has been president.
They forced Boehner out of power for less effrontery than this, and taking that scalp has made the seem more fearsome than they really are. Trump has been preemptively appeasing them in recent weeks, especially with his pardon of Arpaio and his attempt to spin the DACA decision as a true repeal. But this is a basically a set up to knife them repeatedly throughout this month. Trump and the Republican leadership have no choice but to blow them off on pretty much everything on the must-do list in September, which is also why Bannon was forced out and why Bannon is readying to go to war:
Stephen Bannon and Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC), chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, “plotted for nearly two hours on the agenda for the month ahead, with an emphasis on the Breitbart-Freedom Caucus war against Republican leadership on multiple fronts,” according to Jonathan Swan.
Said a source: “The topics discussed included conservative alternatives to everything the anti-Trump Republican leadership has planned on every major policy matter facing the United States of America in September. Including, Paul Ryan’s and Mitch McConnell’s demonstrated failure to govern, and how to effectively implement the Trump agenda moving forward.”
“Republican leadership already has a brutal month ahead, but the House Freedom Caucus — a collection of around 40 ultra conservative members — is going to fight them every step of the way.”
This all makes the Democrats relevant again, and that will become more obvious after the meeting Trump takes today with Schumer and Pelosi.
As always with Trump, it would be a mistake to see him as ahead of the game. He’s been sleepwalking into this landscape, but his options are spelled out for him and he will get nowhere by trying to satisfy his right flank.
If he can get the debt ceiling and a first shot at disaster relief cleanly off his plate, his biggest headache will be solved, and that’s a solid start to what will remain a brutal month.
I’m concerned that they’re badly lowballing the cost of cleaning up after Hurricane Harvey and that they’ll regret not asking for more up front. If Hurricane Irma devastates the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Florida, we could be seeing a staggering disaster bill become a bill that is so large that we’ll all start having to ask ourselves some hard questions.
Still, before the first storm hit, it wasn’t clear that they had a workable plan to avoid default, and now it seems like they probably have one. And that’s basically a good thing because we need this government to at least pay our bills on time and get people the help they urgently need. There will be plenty of other stuff to fight about.
