A lot of people are talking today about Michael Kruse’s piece in Politico Magazine in which he traveled back to Johnstown, Pennsylvania to check in with Trump supporters he’d talked to last year. The basic takeaway is a bit different from the headline of the piece that suggests the president’s supporters never believed his promises. In fact, it’d be more accurate to say that they were actually quite hopeful when he was elected, but prudently skeptical. What’s changed is that they don’t really have much hope at all anymore, but their devotion to Trump is surprisingly undiminished nonetheless.
Some of the people Kruse profiles are sympathetic, others the farthest thing from it. It’s easy to find yourself cursing their pretzel logic and their curdled views on life. Who among us doesn’t want to self-apply a staple gun after reading something like this?
Next to Bala was a gray-haired man who told me he voted for Trump and was happy so far because “he’s kept his promises.”
I asked which ones.
“Border security.” But there’s no wall yet. “No fault of his,” the man said.
What else? “Getting rid of Obamacare.” But he hasn’t. “Well, he’s tried to.”
What else? “Defunding Planned Parenthood.” But he didn’t. “Not his fault again,” the man said.
I asked for his name. “Bill K.,” he said. He wouldn’t give me his last name. “I don’t trust you,” he said.
This area was represented for thirty-six years by Rep. John Murtha, an anti-choice Democrat who served as a Marine in the Vietnam War and received two Purple Hearts, the Vietnamese Cross of Gallantry, a Bronze Star, and the Navy Distinguished Service Medal. He was famous as an appropriator who brought home the bacon to his district by mastering the earmarking process.
The current representative, Republican Keith Rothfus, is comparatively useless. His only committee assignment is to the Financial Services Committee, which has about as much direct relevancy to the working class people of Johnstown as the Indian Affairs Committee. But he couldn’t replicate Murtha’s effectiveness even if he wanted to because the Republicans did away with earmarks in the misguided belief that they were more invitations to corruption and waste than the lubricant that allowed the two parties to compromise and make deals.
It used to be that a very powerful congressman did a lot for the struggling people of Johnstown. Murtha certainly accomplished more for them than any president ever did. And they knew he was Democrat and they voted for him eighteen times in a row.
Progressives and do-gooder Democrats were never fond of John Murtha, at least not until he lent his considerable weight and credibility to the anti-Iraq War movement. He was wrong on choice. He was too cozy with the defense contractors and lobbyists. There was also a waft of corruption surrounding him even if he never really got nailed for anything. But he was basically a good man and a guy who reflected the values of his constituents pretty faithfully. And because he was Democrat, a lot of the people in Johnstown were Democrats, too.
Johnstown needs a lot of help. That comes through clearly in all the interviews. No Democrat is going to help Trump build his wall or destroy Obamacare or bring back the steel plants, and that’s not what Democrats should be promising these folks because those aren’t the things that are going to help them.
But these folks need left-wing answers to their problems. They need plausible government action to address the opioid epidemic. They need government investment that produces jobs, even if it’s partly a boondoggle for their somewhat shady congressional representative. They need an activist antitrust division that will help them rebuild an indigenous business community, and they need favorable terms for start-up money to seed those businesses.
Those are the kind of promises they should be grasping onto, instead of the racist and xenophobic crap that Trump spews. We can call these folks deplorable and single out the most racist among them as examples for why they’re beyond hope. But that’s abandonment, and that’s certainly not what the local Democratic Party in Johnstown is going to say about themselves and their own community. Whatever wins in Johnstown might not look like the national party’s message, and that’s okay. It wouldn’t hurt, though, if people like Elizabeth Warren and Tom Perriello would make a trip there and begin laying the groundwork for a different kind of hope.
My take on this is:
Why can’t our voters respect a failed attempt? When McConnell blocked most of Obama’s agenda, Democratic voters got mad at Obama and Reid for “failing them”.
My take on your take:
So you agree with Bill K?
(My other take: I blame Obama for not blaming. For not fanning the flames of Dem anger and blame and directing them toward a target. Trump spends a lot of time explaining to his voters that it’s the filthy Dems and the low-energy Republicans who are to blame. If a leader wants their voters to wallow around in blame, they’ve gotta jump into the gutter themselves. That’s leadership.)
Agree with his goals? Of course not.
Agree Trump is still trying to do at least most of them? Yes. For people with these (unpleasant) preferences they are correct that he’s working to make them happen and their chances of getting them are better by supporting him than by opposing him or sitting out. Their continued support of him makes it more likely their policy goals will be achieved.
I just wish people aiming for good policies were as determined and realistic.
I know you don’t agree with his goals!
I guess I agree that there’s something ‘realistic’ about Bill K’s stance, though. I suspect he feels that Trump’s core campaign promise was this: to try to achieve maximal goals despite the opposition of his loathsome adversaries. No American really expects a politician to solve anything–applause lines are just applause lines. However, a politician who makes all the noise in the world while trying to implement the base’s dream goals? And who points the finger at the villains when they ruin everything? That’s a politician who commands unwavering loyalty among the base.
I wish Republican politicians aiming for terrible policies were as measured, bipartisan, and respectful as ours: their base would abandon them in less than a heartbeat.
Because (and I share everyone’s reluctance in going straight to what you might call the “education gap”) our voters understand Washington politics specifically and legislative procedure in general. Trump’s supporters don’t understand elective government or constitutional law. Can you blame them? Trump himself conspicuously doesn’t understand those things, so his followers become a self-selecting group since any reasonably well-informed person would read his tweets and conclude, “This is ridiculous; he has no idea what’s going on” and depart for greener pastures, leaving behind these Trump voters, who can’t understand — for example — that it’s not McConnell’s or Ryan’s fault that Obamacare repeal failed; it’s Trump’s.
I mean, the same self-selecting group spent eight years looking right at Obama’s extraordinary procedural achievements — the trifecta of Iran, Obamacare and Paris — with total blindness; they didn’t have any idea what he pulled off (they thought he was golfing all the time). (My favorite guy in the Politico piece is the one who blithely says that at least Trump isn’t sleeping ’til noon and golfing every weekend like Obama — when corrected, he just says, “Really? Oh…I didn’t know that” and changes the subject).
So as long as Trump blames everyone else for his failures, this group will accept this. As Josh Marshall wrote today, shock at Trump’s victory is “[T]he genesis of countless bizarrely circular Trump voter profiles in which we learn that people who still consider themselves Trump supporters still support Trump.”
I know that I wrote here, a few days ago (in a much worse mood) that it’s “time to attack the Trump voters directly” — to shame them and challenge them — and I realize I’m now taking a “father forgive them” approach (since people this badly informed can’t really be blamed, personally, for lacking the contextual knowledge necessary to understand that Trump’s claims of victimhood are total bullshit, just like his claims of business savvy or even of great wealth) — but I still think all these Democratic victories show that these people can be sort of reached; their tautologies can at least be challenged if not punctured. It’s hard to retain this optimism in the face of Kruse’s irrefutable determination that, for these people, “it’s not that the goalposts are moving; the goalposts have been utterly removed.”
Democrats used to know how to reach these people. Should be quite easy. Since policies and rhetoric that cracks down on plutocrats and billionaires. But we’re got to be serious about it. And then . . . have to learn the art of Responding to Republican claim that we’re sewing class divisions with measured and appropriate responses like “Blow me!”
Did you actually read the article? They are not reachable. And they don’t matter, because Trump is not going to reproduce a perfect storm in 2020. (A combination of die-off and even a mild decrease in turnout will more than suffice.) Absolutely Democrats need a strong message about what they’re supposed to be about- looking out for ordinary people- but if you think any message will win places like Johnstown you are going to be very disappointed.
Apparently not the same article you did. I don’t think the assertion is they’re not reachable. It’s that we have to address the issues that really matter to them.
We don’t need to win in those places. So much the better if we can but, at the very minimum, we need to be at least marginally competitive in the most rural places. It was huge turnout and enthusiasm for Trump in those places that killed us in 2016.
What issues? They said in so many words that they know Trump will do nothing at all to help them yet they’ll still vote for him. What they lsp up is the rage. Nothing Dems could say can compete with that.
The Trump voters who said they counted on their guy to bring back the steel mills and coal mines and good paying jobs, when interviewed for this article, said they knew those jobs are never coming back. They didn’t expect #45 to deliver on those promises, or on building a wall. It turned out that their issues are almost entirely cultural. When they hear #45 attacking NFL players who kneel during the National Anthem, all is forgiven. He hates the same people they hate, and that’s enough for them.
Democrats don’t have a strong message because they really don’t have a strong message.
I am really sick of American politics right now.
The biggest difference between me nd those deplorables in PA is that I’m not dub enough to be taken in by Trump. But as far as the Democratic Party?
NY Times front-page story today: “Murphy Is Winner in New Jersey.” Great. Seriously. At least that prick Christie is gone.
BUT: “The victory by Mr. Murphy, who transformed himself from a Goldman Sachs executive into a progressive Democrat to match the direction of an anxious political party, gives Democrats a badly needed lift and a governor who has vowed to make his state a bulwark against the policies of President Trump.”
I think that just about says it all. Goldman Sachs Democrats don’t need to do any re-thinking when they have Trump to run against. He makes just about anyone with a D after their name look good.
I was talking with my wife about it earlier today. She framed it as a question whether a guy like Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs executive, had a serious moral transformation or is he only going through the motions. I replied, “It’s not a moral transformation, it’s just a business model.”
Goldman has been developing this business model since
the Bill Clinton era — Bob Rubin got into “community development” as chairman of LISC the day he quit as Sec of Treasury (1999). I’m sure you know they’ve been using this approach in the Third World for decades. Now they’re using it here.
Bill DeBlasio’s reelection is hardly even news. He got 74% of the votes, with abysmal turnout — 14% of registered Democrats voted. Sal Albanese, the only good candidate, running third party, the next best, got 15%, same as in the primary (when he ran as Democrat, which he actually is). Not bad considering there were three other candidates, including the Republican.
De Blasio — Mr Progressive himself — got 65% of his contributions from Real Estate, NYC being the world’s hottest real estate market. His government is run by REBNY (representing big RE) and Goldman Sachs (Deputy Mayor for Housing Alicia Glen is a Goldman graduate.
The Center for an Urban Future, the major lobbying group for the Democrats’ idea of “city planning”, has on its board Margaret Anadu, who replaced Alicia Glen as as managing director of Goldman Sachs’ Urban Investment Group when Glen left to become Delasio’s Deputy Mayor for Housing. No space to tell about some of the others on the board, but let’s just say it has a certain tone to it.
James Patchett, now head of NYC Economic Development Corporation, which is the lead agency of hyper-gentrification — the equivalent of city planning in NYC — was recently Glen’s chief of staff, but before that he worked with her at Goldman as vice president of the Urban Investment Group.
DeBlasio’s much touted affordable housing plan creates housing that is not affordable to the people that need it the most while adding far more market-rate and luxury units in order to do it. And while displacing more people than are coming in. It’s called hyper-gentrification.
Presently fixing to destroy my neighborhood as well as all the other most affordable, working class, people-of-color neighborhoods left in the city.
It’s like Christopher Columbus all over again.
http://gothamist.com/2016/03/22/pioneering_brooklyn_east_ny.php
Alicia Glen is very sweet on Ron Moelis L+M Development Partners.
http://nycommunities.org/goldman-sachs-city-hall-how-alicia-glens-development-partners-are-cashing-b
ill-de-blasios-new-york
That’s logical.
http://lmdevpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/GOLDMAN-SACHS-AND-LM-DEVELOPMENT-PARTNERS-ANNOUNCE-NEW-U
RBAN-INVESTMENT-FUND.pdf
Icing on the cake? : Bernie Sanders endorsed DeBlasio just before the election. Why? By rights, he should have endorsed Sal Albanese. It wouldn’t make any difference to DB’s election chances, which were already 100%. The only reason Bernie could have done it is because DeBlasio is positioning himself for a 2020 presidential run.
So this is what passes for a “progressive” these days.
God help us.
Paid sick time, free pre-k for all, ending stop and frisk. These seem like good things to me. Things that wouldn’t have happened under the two previous mayors.
To ensure the candidate is pure enough for you, write yourself in the next time.
Thanks for being so predictable.
I didn’t complain about those things, did I?
If you don’t see the problem, and that it is a problem, then you’re part of the problem.
Yes to all.
AG
P.S. You write:
What neighborhood is yours? I’m in Kingsbridge…inna Bronx…and so far (despite repeated efforts) the real estate developers have not had any great success in gentrifying any Bronx working class neighborhoods. There’s a little bit going on around City Hall and Yankee Stadium, but certainly not on the massive scale of Brooklyn, Harlem and parts of Queens. There’s also something happening in the South Bronx, but it is not the classic middle-class-whites-move-in, local-ethnics-move-out, prices-go-through-the-roof hustle. It’s more like people who came up in the neighborhood and have to some degree prospered…mostly latino… are buying housing in the neighborhood rather than moving out. Why? It’s home to them, plus prices are relatively reasonable.
Check it out.
I’m in northern Manhattan.
You might want to read this. And remember, this was already two years ago. these are some of the same developers that are in our neighborhood.
https:/therealdeal.com/magazine/november-2015
As somebody on this list likes to say, wake the fuck up.
The long and short of it is that new housing is never affordable. Over time it becomes affordable once housing stock is overbuilt. Since there is no surplus housing in New York, you’re not going to see much improvement in affordability without a massive build up (e.g. Tokyo, Shanghai).
If you knew anything about NYC real estate, you would realize that the ordinary laws of supply and demand have not been operating there for many years.
There is a glut of market-rate apartments now, especially in Brooklyn. But they are still building them like mad. Same thing with luxury. Stores often remain vacant for years because the landlords are asking astronomical rents, but will not lower them.
The really huge demand for affordable housing, but they do not build anywhere near adequate numbers of units.
The market is distorted by all kinds of huge tax breaks for builders. Since NY politcs is controlled by real estate and construction, this never changes.
Doesn’t the example of Murtha and the real story of the 12th District, actually negate all the crap Martin and Parallax are trying peddle as their own diosyncratic way forward as the only way?
The people of Johnstown were voting for Murtha back in 2000 (when the district was +11 Democratic) not because he was providing “left-wing” answers to their problems. He was providing pork, and was against some of the same groups they wanted punished. The district voted for Kerry in 2004 and then voted for McCain in 2008, the only district in the country to vote that way. Once his seniority dried up with his death, so did much of the reason for his constituents to continue to vote democratic.
Surprisingly, Murtha’s replacement Mark Critiz was able to win one last term for the Dems when the district was +1R in 2010. He was not in the majority and didn’t have the seniority of Murtha. Critiz was replaceed by Republican Keith Rothfus in 2012 (after gerrymandering made it +12R) as Obama won the state. Rothfus won th 2016 GE by 23%.
Once the covenant of pork and social conservatism was broken along with gerrymandering creating a safe Republican district the damn has broken.
Why does Martin leave out all that context? Could it be that it doesn’t fit into his narrative?
welcome home, AG
I hope you’re not suggesting NuBoo is a sock puppet for AG. Absolutely not. NuBoo’s a lot more obnoxious than AG, and that’s really saying something.
Reads more like Davis X Machina than AG. Really not sure how it reads like something AG might bark out.
I am a yellow dog Democrat. AG may well be a rabid yellow dog.
My problem with Martin is that he is from Pennsylvania, yet he seems incapable of doing that great a job of explaining Pennsylvania politics on the ground. If he can’t get the 12th District of his home state contextually right, why should we trust his corrective prescriptions nationwide? Too often I find his diagnosis built on faulty or outdated assumptions.
I have lived in rural sections of the country and suburban ones. Technically, some of them would be defined as urban, but they weren’t in reality. I have lived in Ca, Ks, Mo, and Va. I feel I know this country and its citizens as well as many of the commentators on this site. However, too many of the more prolific ones write like they are omniscient, and only they know the real or true path of leading the Left or Democratic Party to electoral enlightenment. I love the lectures of how things worked with FDR or back in a mythic past (when the Dems had a seemingly unbeatable majority) that don’t address that social conservatives made up a huge block of those winning coalitions. They no longer make up much of the coalition. Getting them back the way we did in decades past is untenable. Unless we throw LGBTQ, POC, and others under the bus we don’t get those voters back. Even if we do those things, not sure we get them back, and our current coalition collapses.
We have to work hard at a every election not just the Presidential or Congressional ones. We have to spend more money on GOTV, canvassing, and persuasion, and let the Republicans waste money on costly ad buys. I think we need to figure out what ratio we can spend on TV ads compared to Republicans and still be competitive. Can we run one ad to every 4 ads the Republicans run, and still win? Northam ran about one ad to Gillespie’s 2-3. He or Tom Perez put the rest of the money in ground operations. I have felt like that was the way to go since 1994 when I was an intern for the DNC. There is so much money wasted on ad buys, and all the consultant fees that are attached.
We need to get off the internet and get out in our communities. Martin was a precinct captain or something for OFA in 2008, in an election that Obama won by 7pts. Last year during an expected much closer election that was arguably an existential crises, he spent the year grumbling about how the Clinton campaign mistreated poor Bernie, fantasized about Michelle Obama running someday, and counted Saabs with Clinton stickers at his kids school. A real profile in porridge.
Too many times Martin writes things that appeal to easy solutions that don’t involve any of us having to do anything other than post “wow brilliant distillation of our current circumstances.” He writes vague posts like this one that bemoan the fall of the Democratic Party in a place Johnstown or Wise Co. Va. When he wrote last week or the week before about the awful racist campaign that Gillespie was running in VA. Well which is it? Gillespie just won Wise County Tuesday with 76% of the vote. Gillespie wasn’t selling using anti-trust laws to break up monopolies like Amazon or Wal-mart, nor was he offering an alternative economic path that relies less on coal extraction. Left-wing solutions that Clinton and Northam (or if Pereilllo had been the candidate) offered were rejected in favor of racist fear mongering and “suck it libtards!”
Talking about Johnstown, PA and using the phrase “the dam has broken”? Was that intentional?
No, it wasn’t. Since it is so associated with the town, I must have unconsciously made the connection.
Good point about the pork. Once the GOP did away with pork barrel legislation, the relationship between representatives and constituents became more ideological and less services and transaction in nature.
This is so undercovered. One man’s bribe is another man’s representative government.
Pa is the only state that does not collect an extraction fee on natural gas…fracking. The people of Johnstown need understand how the GOP control of Pa has and continues to give away their natural resource. How much money has Rothfus gotten from the fracking companies.
Thanks, Booman. Interesting analysis.
Side point: If you’re looking for reasons why Barack Obama was/is so insistent on “hope” as part of his, and the nation’s politics, look no further.
Obama understands in his bones that hope is an essential ingredient for making progressive change. Citizens without hope will not use their power to act.
Hope is not a political luxury; it’s a necessity. As St. Augustine wrote (and Obama would have learned from his organizing mentors in Chicago in the 1980s), “”Hope has two lovely daughters. Their names are anger and courage; anger at the way things are, and courage to see that they do not remain the way they are.”
Seems like the hope they had — for the last generation or so — was from patronage in the first place. Murtha at least delivered.
Money talks; employment talks. Almost nobody walks, especially in working class areas. Ain’t about political parties, it’s about employment.
Trump too.
If he can’t come through with his economic promises, he won’t last.
if he does, he will last.
His bipartisan opposition knows this, which is the main reason that the whole “tax cut” boondoggle is still hung up in a supposedly Republican-dominated Congress.
If he seemed to be succeeding in his various economic measures, there is no way that his base would stand for an impeachment. But since it at least appears that his two main domestic economic efforts…tax cuts and getting rid of ObamaCare…are going nowhere, he is losing his base. Thus the “Virginia Miracle” about which the neocentrist Dems are crowing. It’s not a success on their part; it’s a failure on Trump’s part.
A failure that the neocentrists of both parties have engineered.
I got yer “Virginia Miracle.” Right here!!!
Bet on it.
AG
These bitter retirees dish out a toxic stew of economic nostalgia and white supremacy. In all these conversations they make pleas for “help” (which generates sympathy for them), while never having the slightest suggestion of what “help” would realistically look like. They don’t even imagine that they have an answer. Obamacare is meaningless to most of them as they have Medicare. Hatin’ on (wealthy) black NFL players and wishing for ethnic cleansing of Latinos appear their major preoccupations.
They are certain the steel mills won’t return, and with a population drop of 80%, that’s certainly correct, whatever our corporate trade policies look like. The coal mines are likely the basis for the town’s existence, so their “return” would doom the planet. Not a word out of their mouths about this issue, although there can be no doubt what their position is. If they could “save” their town at the cost of the 11,000 year old stable climate and 98% of the species on Earth, they’d take that deal in a second. Retraining is obstinately resisted, for some strange psychological reason.
As one crosses the West one encounters ghost towns, as well as tiny towns that lost some forgotten 1890s battle for a county seat or a rail line and thus lost their reason for existence. In short, the capitalist economy passed them by. This is the plight of Johnstown as well. A town must have a reason to exist, a reason for why it is where it is. What is now this town’s reason? These residents have no clues, no suggestions. Talk about looking for a “savior”!
There was a Golden Age for Johnstown and it has irrevocably passed. The residents themselves have no ideas of what to do now, our capitalist corpocracy isn’t going to think of them again. Murtha did what he could but he couldn’t live forever, and the “conservative” movement destroyed even his last pork lifeline for Johnstown.
These situations generate the worst form of Irreconcilables and these folks aren’t going to have a happy retirement, it seems. One would like to pull them out of the muck of their bitter white supremacy but there’s no recipe for doing that. That’s what they are going to vote on.
“We can call these folks deplorable….” Congratulations, you’ve latched onto the the GOP reverse-defense that allows them to do absoloutely nothing for their constitutuents. It’s rooted in a lie about what people are saying, a lie that the Clinton campaign got suckered into saying out loud.
The plain out truth that this is denying is that the Trump constituency sees its highest priority as destroying its own future and the future of its offspring.
Your list is searching hard for the things that people in areas like Johnstown will not attack next. That’s OK. We all are looking for where American will not turn self-destructive. Where people who listen to media will not harden their hearts in the name of “toughness” and destroy hope as a political tactic that makes them more politically popular. We see where that sort of “triumph of the will” that is the delight of motivational grifters leads to. And deliberate destruction of hope is a political horror that has not been served straight-up for 80 years in this world.
Yes, send Warren, Perriello, and anyone else to Johnstown and see if these people are willing to even talk. Or better put, if they are willing to allow the spell of Rushbo and the ShockJocks to break. If their opinions come from the valleys, that’s one thing; if they come from studios in Palm Beach and New York and places in the media cloud. Do these people know what they want? Or are they going along with the crowd in town?
I hope that whatever wins Johnstown doesn’t look like the national party’s message. How the hell can the party know what direction to take if the grassroots don’t start telling them honestly. And how does that happen if the grassroots trimming to the local media favorites.
Could care less about these folks.
Stop writing about them.
They showed their lack of character when they voted for Dolt45
Dolt45. Now that is a fitting name for Herr Combover. A 4 for that alone.
Barely squesking into office despite (for example) popular vote losses by means of blocked recounts, gerrymandering, voter suppression, and suspicious voting-machine problems never stopped Republicans from loudly crowing about “mandates” and “turning tides” and triumphs of a “silent majority.” Why should we be any different?
Sorry, wrong thread!