Britain’s favourite tactic in gaining and running an empire was to divide and conquer: The was always some local comprador bourgeoisie willing to give their loyalty in return for immediate financial gain. So long as you had a superior military presence and at least some local elites on your side, subduing or marginalising those opposed to you could become a relatively straight forward process. Even a huge and populous country such as India could be governed as long as you had most of the Maharajas on your side. The fact that India, as a whole, was impoverished by the process did not detain the Imperial office unduly.
Britain seems to think that employing similar tactics with the EU could pay similar dividends. Theresa May’s recent visit to Poland with a full ministerial entourage at a time when the EU and Poland are at loggerheads over the latter’s alleged violations of judicial independence sent a none-too-subtle message to Brussels: We can make a lot of trouble for you if you don’t give us a good deal. Eastern European countries have an interest in remaining as close as possible to the UK’s belligerent attitudes to Russia and nuclear deterrent capabilities. Boris Johnson and David Davis’ “charm offensive” in Germany sought to highlight some German Industries’ dependence on the UK market.
It will certainly be much more difficult for the EU to maintain the unanimity it displayed in Phase I of the Brexit negotiations when the differing national interests come into play in the trade negotiations. Germany, France, Holland, Luxembourg, Ireland, Eastern European and Mediterranean countries will all have different priorities. Macron has just become the first major European leader to visit 10 Downing St. in a long time. You know you are in trouble when even Trump displays no enthusiasm for a state visit with all the royal bells and whistles.
But what the British appear to fail to understand is that divide and conquer tactics may not work to their benefit on this occasion. Any Brexit deal needs a qualified majority on the Council and European Commission and Parliament endorsement. A trade deal requires unanimity. Piss off too many countries and parties, and European divisions could work to prevent any deal being ratified. Threatening European unity risks provoking a very antagonistic response from those who see their future as being part of a cohesive Europe.
The debate has grown strangely quiet in the UK, with many people either bored or battered into submission. The national mood is sullen. Attention, never a strong suit of the Brexiteers, has wandered elsewhere. Even Nigel Farage couldn’t attract much interest with his suggestion, quickly withdrawn, that a second referendum is needed. Only European leaders seemed to notice; several, including Emmanuel Macron, say the United Kingdom is more than welcome to forget the whole thing.
Ian Dunt, a prominent Brexit commentator, points out that Brexit is now happening without the British, with all the running made in Brussels. And by running he means preparations. It’s as if the Brexiteers have behaved like teenagers trashing the family home during a particularly riotous party. The kids have moved on, leaving the adults with the clean-up. But there are consequences for the children, including punishment – perhaps even retribution.
If anything Brexit-related is going on in Britain right now it is invisible. Behind the scenes the civil service is making preparations, but they are all devoted to having your cake and eating it: a bespoke free-trade deal, encompassing all goods and services, plus complete freedom to negotiate third-party trade deals; no more freedom of movement; and no more European Court of Justice. It doesn’t matter how many times or ways in which European politicians say no; the British just don’t seem to listen.
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In any battle, any negotiation, it is wise to try to understand what motivates the other side. Yes, EU countries have differing interests that the British will try to exploit. But this betrays only a very superficial understanding of what Europe is about. Europe’s ideas about itself shape what it considers its interests to be. The effort needed to figure all this out, to understand their opponents, is clearly beyond the wit of the Brexiteers. It remains an uneven and brutal contest.
British enthusiasm for Brexit may diminish further as their hopes of achieving all these good outcomes are dashed. The usual Brexiteer response – more EU bashing – is only likely to consolidate European unity further. Whatever about the immediate economic interests of particular EU countries and industries, the long term interests of the EU as a whole are clear: Offer as difficult a Brexit deal as possible, if only to discourage other nationalist and separatist movements.
Meanwhile, other countries such as Ireland are busy building new alliances within the EU to protect their interests and consolidate their positions. David McWilliams is the nearest thing there is to a prominent Eurosceptic in Ireland, arguing that our cultural affinities and economic interests are much more closely aligned to Atlantic countries such as the USA and UK than they are with eastern European and Mediterranean countries. But even he has argued that Ireland should align itself with eastern European EU members if only to prevent a new Schultz/Merkel/Macron led drive for further EU integration.
Leo Varadker appears to have taken this advice meeting Victor Orban in Hungary on a trip not announced to the Irish parliament beforehand and the subject of considerable criticism when announced. About the only things Orban and Varadker have in common is a preference for a low corporate taxation rate as a means of attracting FDI and the maintenance of CAP subsidies. There was, pointedly, no agreement on migration policies. Importantly, Orban also promised to support Ireland’s position on Brexit.
However Varadker also schmoozed the European Parliament on his birthday and added an anecdote about his personal family history which put Nigel Farage firmly in his place – always a popular thing to do there – and leaving the Parliament in no doubt that Ireland remained committed to the European project. If the British Government wants to isolate Ireland within the European Union, it will have some work to do. Alliances are being built and consolidated all the time, and dividing and conquering the EU will not prove to be as easy as some Brexiteers expect.
