It seems to me that too many progressive Democrats are demonstrating something between learned helplessness and crippling pessimism. So, let me ask you a question. Every time I talk about President Trump being removed from office, I’m hit with a deluge of comments about how that is never going to happen, usually because the Republicans in Congress will never vote to impeach him and his own cabinet will never invoke the 25th amendment.
Those seem like safe assumptions. But why is President Trump so panicked about this investigation then? Why has he acted the way he has? Why did he fire Comey and why do people have to keep talking him out of firing Rosenstein and ultimately Mueller? Why has he obstructed the investigation and instructed congressional Republicans to obstruct the investigation?
Is he just stupid? Does he not realize that no matter what comes out in the investigation, he has absolutely nothing to worry about?
Or, maybe, does he realize that Michael Flynn cut a whale of a deal with the special prosecutor and it wasn’t to testify to things that congressional Republicans can just shrug off? Maybe he’s behaving like a guilty perp because he’s fully aware that his actions can’t stand the light of day.
Think about what you know about Trump. Think about what you already know about how he conducts his business, stiffing contractors and bullying people in court. Think about the model for his real estate licensing and the well established fact that his properties are used by mobsters, drug dealers and oligarchs to launder their money. Think about the fraud he’s committed, for example with Trump University. Think about all the sexual assaults and the bribes he’s paid to keep women quiet. Think about how likely it is that his denials are truthful denials.
Why won’t he release his tax returns? Why was he trying to make a deal for a Trump Tower in Moscow as late as December 2015? Why did he hire Paul Manafort? Why was Roger Stone communicating with both Guccifer 2.0 and Julian Assange? Why does Trump act the way he does towards Vladimir Putin? What are the chances that any part of his story is going to hold up once Mueller is done writing his report?
I have no doubt that the Republicans in Congress can shrug off a lot, but the truth is that most of them don’t like Trump and most of them do like Mike Pence.
Spend a day on Capitol Hill and you’ll hear Republican elected officials who publicly say they adore Trump spit unthinkable invective off the record.
My opinion of Republicans could hardly get lower. I’m only asking people to have a little imagination and a little faith. My guess is that we’ll need at least one chamber of Congress under Democratic control to get this done, because we need to control some hearings and be able to call witnesses and make them respond to questions. But I’m not even sure that this will be required. I don’t think Trump is a smart or particularly rational man, but I think his behavior is the best indicator of the risk he faces. He doesn’t think he’s immune to accountability, so why are so many of you willing to lay down and assume that he has impunity?
I suspect some, and that often includes me, have seen our leaders fold like cheap suits too often. Even you have expressed your frustration recently.
Who among us really believes, after Bush and “impeachment is off the table”, that empowered Dems would definitely go after Trump? Not me: I mean, I hope they do, I WANT them to, but will they? I don’t know.
I was hoping Schumer would wring some concessions over DACA as we approach shutdown 2, but will he? I don’t know: do YOU think he will?
I’ll add that this does little to inspire confidence. I tend to think Duncan is an Eeyore-type, but this strikes me as accurate.
(TL/DR: Democratic grifters)
Since I’m one of the people you reference, I’ll bite.
Any act that’s directly punitive against the Popular Vote Loser by the House or Senate will be inherently political in nature regardless of it’s ultimate source. If you buy into my IOKIYAR writ large idea about how the modern GOP operates, then there’s no political upside for them to hold his administration accountable for any malfeasance, hence, they’re not gonna do anything.
Sure he’s guilty of all the stuff you reference above. But until that’s leveraged into political oomph (for lack of a better term) by those willing to wield the oomph, nothing’s gonna happen. The only thing I can think of is that deep down while he knows his base will absolve him of anything, he’s probably less sure about the career politicians on the Hill and how they’ll react should something truly negative happen (like being directly indicted–I’m not sure how that process works in this case).
Sure, but that wasn’t Booman’s question. He’s asking, why do you think Trump is so worried if he’s really so invulnerable? Maybe because he really is vulnerable.
I don’t think Trump is worried about “collusion” or even obstruction for that matter. And he knows as long as he’s got the base, congressional republicans, even though they can’t stand him, have to support and even protect him because they fear the deplorables. What Trump is really worried about is all the evidence of criminality buried into his family finances. Which is why he’s got a death grip on his tax returns. And he knows Mueller is going there and the GOP may not be of much help.
Spouse has been following Trump for decades. Now reading David Cay Johnston’s new book on Trump titled “It’s Worse Than You Think,” and says yes, the title is spot on. Financial corruption would be easier to document and prosecute than collusion and obstruction which, from what I understand, need evidence of intent.
Mueller is collecting the dirty laundry.
A Democratically controlled House of Representatives will air that dirty laundry as it sees fit. It’s hard to see a Trump presidency surviving that. If is does survive, it will be completely crippled by the daily revelation of Trump filth.
1 Because America never holds president accountable
2 Pence is also involved as probably Ryan and go down the list
Your #2 is another reason why I don’t see the republicans impeaching Trump. Pence, Ryan and others know they will go down with him to some extent, if they go after Trump and then the orange cretin starts talking.
But that door swings both ways as shown by how mafia dons are taken down.
If true, there will be a point when Pence et al. can probably save themselves by knifing Trump and his family. On the advice of their attorney holding a bog FoxNews contributor contract they probably will.
I mean, to date everyone else has cut and deal and talked.
Very good point. However mafia dons do not have the advantage of the Presidential pardon…
“When you strike at a king, you must kill him.”
― Ralph Waldo Emerson
If Trump were removed from office and started dishing on Pence et al, I don’t think it would make any difference.
His lawyers have already admitted as much — the man is incapable of telling the truth, and that cuts both ways. You can’t believe him when he promises to make America great, and you can’t believe him if he tells us Mike Pence arranged the secret meetings with Putin.
For what it’s worth, I’ve had trouble reading some authors I used to enjoy because of the repeated “all is lost, we’re doomed” attitude (Pierce is a good example). I think things are really bad. I don’t think they’re hopeless.
I think Pierce is going for a more Jimmy Breslin “Simply the fact that we’ve arrived at this horrible place speaks volumes about how dire things are, whether we get out of it or not” vibe.
In other words, it’s less about “How can we fix this? Can we fix this?” and more about “I just want it on the record that we really did reach this level of depravity, however briefly we may remain here.”
All is not lost and, of course, the GOP congress members all hate Trump. He stole their car and now he’s driving it 100 miles an hour in the wrong direction at night with the lights off.
They have a big problem: Their voters love Trump. They can’t get rid of him as long as that is so. Trump’s not too smart, but he does know this and that’s why he keeps throwing the red meat out to the deplorables. He can keep his spot with 20% – 30% of the public behind him (the GOP base), but the GOP Congress cannot survive elections with 20% – 30% support.
Should the dam break at some point, there will be plenty of Republicans who will happily stab Trump in the back. It’s all about timing…
My answer for why he acts like a criminal is that it’s a good show, good drama. It keeps him front and center every moment. And he’s biding time. One term is all he’ll do. Bone spur or something will keep him out of a second term. Dontcha know?
Yes, he’s a narcissist. He demands that everyone must love and admire him.
I don’t think he has impunity, but I also think your last paragraph is the key – Democrats need at least one house of Congress to control the narrative and generate some institutional safeguards to protect the investigation. It’s a much heavier lift for the Republicans to defy their own president while they are in the majority and their entire media apparatus is solidly behind him.
Spend some time reading the twitter feed of @HoarseWisperer and the enlightening discourses on Narcissistic Personality Disorder. Someone who suffers from NPD has one central fear: being shamed. This is about keeping the salacious compromising video from seeing the light of day at all costs.
I think this is it exactly. He can deflect a lot of shame – but there are flocks of chickens coming home to roost. Maybe he’s afraid he might actually go to jail…
I think you’ll agree that the track record for stopping Trump is pretty weak. It started with his campaign, where he blatantly mocked a disabled man, called Republicans losers, liars, and thieves, showed his racism with references to Mexians and Muslims, and pretty much dangled his penis in front of everyone as a misogynist pig.
And he’s the president now.
Lots people don’t care that he’s a money-laundering, two-faced idiot who embraces bigotry and racism and promises bigger paychecks and more industry in the heartland. He’s re-arming the military and loading up on nuclear weapons. The republicans might think he’s gauche, stupid, and reckless, but he bullied them to take him along and they have used him to get their tax bill and are taking aim at Medicare and Medicaid. McConnell and Ryan have used his muscle to get all they’ve wanted. They don’t want him to go.
Intelligent Democrats would love to see the Republicans taken down. But we do seem to face extraordinary roadblocks. Why couldn’t we force him to turn over his tax returns? Why haven’t we stopped him from emoluments clause abuse? Why does he keep getting away with whatever he chooses?
We’ve been conditioned to understand that Trump and the Republicans are a power-mad, money-hungry bastards with a majority. And we haven’t been able to do much to stop them. That’s why I feel discouraged.
I’ll be out canvassing this fall, and I’ll be convincing anyone I see about voting for Democrats, but it feels like an uphill battle every day.
Since I am also one of the people who refuses to believe that this Congress, as currently configured get 67 votes to convict, I’ll bite, too. Republicans are scared witless of their base. Unless and until the base turns on DT, they will not ever achieve the 67 vote threshold. You want to say I’m a pessimist rather than a realist, I can live with that.
Thanks for this post. My spouse, who could never be described as a progressive Democrat but who is somewhat liberal, literally despises Trump and says after each new Trump outrage, “this can’t last”.
OTOH, my local paper on Sunday had a majority of letters from Trump supporters about how anti-American it was for Dems not to stand up and support Trump who’s already turned everything around. They came short of saying we’re treasonous, but it is sadly obvious they truly believe what they are writing. These are not poor redneck white folk either. They are white and they are racist, even if they don’t admit it to themselves. It is just a “down the rabbit hole with Alice” sort of world we inhabit.
You are right, though, there is no question that Trump is guilty of all that you detail. It’s been obvious to me from the beginning. Personally, I am not depressed or pessimistic. I know that we have to keep our heads down and work to put more Democrats in office at every level of governance.
The whole “Trump supporters are just frightened, economically-poverished salt-of-the-earth workers who don’t know any better (and most are rednecks)” trope has been totally discredited by now. Many conservative commentators and mainstream commentators cling to it because it’s comforting — it hides the truth.
This is the only phrase on this entire page that actually concerns and upsets me. How do they think he has done this?
I feel like asking this question is like putting my hand on the knob of a door that I really don’t want to open.
You ask:
Actually, this question might be better stated as “Why do they think he has done this?”
Pay attention to Fox News, Hannity, Drudge and the like. They are.
AG
Actually, I agree with you on this. Much to my surprise, I might add. It is evident from reading these letters that the writers inhabit some sort of alternate news and fact free universe. It’s more than just Fox News, apparently.
Would you care to share what region of the country your paper is published in?
SEastern U.S. A red state turning purple. This is a minority-majority city but the overwhelming lte’s are from white guys of a certain age. Largely retired and spending all their time at right wing sites. Interestingly the newspaper, a McClatchy one, has a black publisher and managing editor. Although the newspaper is in a desperate fight to survive it just early retired the long time black Editorial page editor. That page has gotten very noticeably worse since he left just 10 days ago. All the opinion is conservative and African Americans are now a voting majority in the city, but apparently aren’t representative of the subscribers/readers.
All the letters today were from conspiracy theorists on the right. One of them posits that Obama had the most scandal plagued, corrupt, abuse of power administrations in history. He says he has “proof”.
A member of the American Nazi Party is running for Congress as a republican. Not one republican office holder has suggested that this not be allowed.
The head of the House Intelligence Committee “recuses” himself and then orders the House Intelligence Committee around. Speaker Ryan’s response: The tax cuts are working.
The Supreme Court refuses to overrule the PA supreme. The Republican response is two-fold: ignore the ruling altogether, impeach the Judges.
The Senate refuses to take up CHIPs until the govt shuts down … then Republicans accuse Democrats of playing politics with little children. Majority leader McConnell applauds.
Roy Blunt claims that Medicare/Medicaid never helped anyone. Republicans applaud. Including McConnell whose life battle with polio was paid for by MARCH of Dimes … started with govt $$$.
Yeah. I think anyone with a brain can be excused for believing that the spinless, power hungry, venal excuses for slime dropping maggots currently calling themselves Republicans will Never allow impeachment to proceed.
The PA senator leading the impeachment charge against the state SC is named “Dush”, which incidentally enough is how Roger Clemens misspelled “douche” in his since-revealed correspondences with steroid supplier Brian McNamee.
In any event, “dush” seems to be appropriate.
We might rid ourselves of Drumpf, but the disease of fascism isn’t going anywhere. Not only was the US too far gone before Drumpf, but the fascism we’re seeing is being driven by global forces that do not especially need Drumpf. Any craven pol will do.
I’m getting convinced that fascism is just late-stage capitalism, and that in 100 years the history of the last 100 years will be seen as the rise of global fascism, with WWII just a bump in the road….
. . . late-stage capitalism”.
Very makeable case, with much evidence that could be marshaled in support, though I’m not (yet, quite) ready to go all-in endorsing it as correct.
Glad to see this point, BooMan. I have been coming here less and less frequently because of all the hopelessness.
If we don’t believe we can win, we won’t be able to. Self-fulfilling prophesy and all that.
I think part of the problem for Democrats is the lack of a cognitive framework to deal with this Presidency. This goes beyond doubts about effectiveness on our side. For my part, I catch myself not believing he’s actually President, like it’s some kind of dream. Maybe I am developing symptoms of a kind of delusional or depersonalization disorder. The cognitive dissonance in processing between my understand of the world and the day-to-day sensory stream is too great. I can’t resolve it. That’s not learned helplessness. That would be the Gore campaign. This is something worse.
I experience the same sensation. It truly is disorienting and uncomfortable.
They have a cognitive framework they’re just too scared to use it. It’s called anti-fascism, and the USG was all over it in 1940-45. Elected Dems a timid bunch to start with, and reaching for the rhetoric of their WWII parents seems a bit much to them.
Not to me…
Maybe they are just being polite?
If dems gain control of the House, maybe. I say maybe because the one political opportunity dem leadership seems to covet the most is to be the “adults in the room” and put things in the past so they can “look forward.” And that might be okay if they really gave folk stuff to look forward to, that they’d be sincere about getting done. I don’t have any confidence that there are enough republicans willing to do the right thing, that there are enough dems with the courage to do it either if given the chance.
Is it still true that no prosecutor has tested the proposition that a President can be forced to stand trial?
Is impeachment, the political removal, the sole recourse when there is demonstrable and actual criminal evidence?
Will a randomly picked jury in where? DC? be likely to indulge in jury nullification?
Current DOJ guidelines say not to indict a sitting president. I don’t see Rosenstein or Mueller as likely to challenge that.
The issue that has so many Democrats pessimistic is that their national leaders cannot get straight what it is that Democrats are for and why it should matter to voters. There are oodles of comments and commentary that have said this since the start of Hillary Clinton’s campaign. That is what is going to make the GOTV efforts that are being organized now by grassroots Democrats bear fruit in November. There is a meeting in my neighborhood tonight. This spontaneous action by a formerly dormant precinct organization has never happened before.
The local worry is that the state and national party will try to shut down these self-organized efforts that lack the advice of DC consultants to tell them how to organize a North Carolina precinct. Instead of Keith Ellison, we got Perez. He’s now gone. Wha happened? Watch for local efforts shoving this bunch out of the way.
As for Trump. He thinks he’s magical and invincible. And he an the Republican leadership are betting that the judiciary will have become as corrupt as the most recently appointed Supreme Court Justice. Even that expectation seems to have been too much for Trey Gowdy of all people.
The words “constitutional crisis” are supposed to scare people away from demanding real accountability. That’s like the poison pills that corprorate boards regularly concoct in hostile takeovers or shareholder rebellions.
We are just going to have to go through the chaos and trust that come November the cognitive dissonance will have moved more people for change and accountability that for “conservative” corruption and obfuscation.
What is clear is that the realignment is occurring in both parties and the parties that resist it will lose out.
The other thing that is clear is that very soon there will be an intolerance for being lied to. Being told that a $1.50 a week “tax cut” is making America Great Again is beginning to seed that turn.
Every word is golden.
Yes!!!
AG
At this point the very best way to say what Democrats are for — and the most succinct — is to say that we’re “for government.“
(As in, we believe the American government has an important rôle to play, and must therefore be staffed with competent people, cleared of corruption, and allowed to do its fucking job. The other side believes none of these things — look at them! Their “only legacy is destruction,” as Kershaw wrote about Nazism.)
But…Jordan! Who is going to do this corruption clearing? The thoroughly corrupted Democratic Party? You know, the one that aced Bernie Sanders out of contention in back room deals that are…at least theoretically… contrary to all rules of (small “d:”) true democratic procedure?
I don’t think so.
AG
WTF does “for government” concretely mean for a national government that just subsidized the 1% with tax cuts of $1.5 trillion?
There is something that Democrats promise to have government be instrumental in doing? What is it? And how will the public trust that the Dems will keep their promises?
And this is not laundry-list kind of “what are you for” language either.
Wanna bet the elites are not happy with their tax cut? Time now to cut spending to take care of the deficit it created. That’s just the right thing to do. But look at the bright side. We’re gonna get one hell of a military parade to cheer about. And I hear all them coal jobs are coming back. What more can you ask from your government?
As I’ve said before, Trump is a low level gangster who wanted a hostile takeover of FoxNews, not the Presidency. He wasn’t expecting to win and be THIS exposed, but he is. Worse, he’s probably risking exposing some rather unreasonable people, hence the anxiety.
I think we tend to WAY over calculate power, especially in our government.
Republicans under Bush looked to be heading to a generational majority, then, overnight, they weren’t.
Yes, the deplorables LOVE Trump. But they LOVED Bush. Now they swear they never heard of him, much less voted for him twice. As for elected republicans? Please…they will walk out on him in a heart beat.
Impeachment would happen when it’s in the interest of enough people (in congress) for that to happen. I don’t see that number appearing. The numbers in the Senate, in particular, are really difficult to each.
Mr Trump is a narc, and he loves the controversy. It’s possible he has some worries about some things (maybe about food poisoning, as some have said) but this stuff in the press? He is probably thriving on it. It keeps the attention on him, he doesn’t have to do as many of those deflating rallies, and the worm keeps turning so there’s always new material.
The light show is in the interest of his Republican friends, who are getting what they want with a good bit of the normal controversy they’d expect diverted elsewhere. It has its uses for Democrats, too, who can run against Trump even if they are having trouble figuring out what they should stand for.
I have stopped thinking it’s so awful. This administration is malevolence tempered by [gross] incompetence, so it won’t ever be as effective as it could have been (think what Mr Nixon or Mr Bush could’ve done). And I think Mr Trump is very cowardly, so he is not very likely (imo) to start any trouble that might put him at any personal risk, however remote (like starting a nuclear war). That’s a unique characteristic we haven’t seen in presidents in our lifetime (or maybe ever).
I don’t know what happens if the legal case against Mr Trump shows up as damning (likewise against his near relations). The internal contradictions here get very high and its divide-by-zero time. I’m thinking it won’t get there.
Great post. But what will it take for the GOP (I’m looking at you Paul & Mitch) to decide there is some shit they will not eat?
IMHO, the underlying messaging needs to be: Trump’s only in it for himself (plenty of easy examples from the last year) and we are in it for YOU. And this is how: … improve healthcare, increase Soc Sec [and remove the cap on contributions], tax the rich, fix the roads, work against climate change, lower the National Park fees [a symbol of course] etc etc
In the right hands, I think that can win. “He’s a greedy liar and in your gut you know it’s true.”
I dunno. I think people are wise to altruistic pols. As the IL Dem primary degrades into the inevitable mus wrestling, all I, and I’m sure others, want to know is “What’s in int for me? Don’t give me that ‘I love the people’ crap. We know what’s in it for you – fame, power, and probably money. What’s in it for us?”
I was turned off by Pritzker’s initial ads touting what a great guy he was. Now that he’s putting out concrete economic campaign promises, I’m listening. I have no use for people who say he’s corrupt. Every Illinois pol is corrupt! The important thing is what are they going to do for us or against us.
So we agree.
To a point. A pol has to watch if he/she’s coming off as holier than thou. But if you mean that ads should be about substance rather than dirt, I agree. I don’t know if you live in Illinois or the Chicago TV market. if you do, what do you think about the ads? And using FBI tapes of non-criminal private conversations in ads?
Voice…you write:
That goes for national pols as well.
This whole NeverTrtump/AllTrump contretemps? The various memos and dirty dossiers and other media shit-throwing about how “It’s the other side that’s corrupt!!!”??? I have no use for that. Show me the beef…from either side…or shut the fuck up. I sometimes think that neither side can actually afford to “show us the beef,” because by doing so they would incriminate themselves. (Think “Serial, bipartisan financing and sponsorship of the whole Steele boondoggle” for all you need to know on that account.) Thus the ongoing, shadow shitshow.
I don’t even want to smell it!!!
Like McDonalds, Burger King and the rest of the fast food purveyors…all of the beef comes from the same rotten farms. They cannot possibly let that single fact become widely known or no one would eat their crap anymore, so instead they invent clowns and masked kings to hawk their wares.
Sound familiar?
You bet it does!!!
Later…
AG
You know what they say about the Law and sausages!
Mark Twain:
Personally, I respect sausages more than I do the law…at least in the U.S…these days.
The laws eat us, and so do the lawmakers.
Too many laws, not enough sausages.
AG
But plenty of sausage grinders in the Middle East.
I see the purity police are at work today. He really is a disgusting piece of shit isn’t he? Besides being a racist classist bigot.
The country could stand a little honest graft, so long as the bridges get fixed and poor helped out.
/not kidding
And the trains run on time…
“…Does he not realize that no matter what comes out in the investigation, he has absolutely nothing to worry about?”
The answer to this lives on two levels.
The “pessimists” are simply pointing out that all of our institutions have utterly failed. This fact is beyond dispute. We live today in a regime that is not only controlled, but is entirely defined, by a propaganda machine. That, by itself, is perhaps not unprecedented; but historical parallels fail, because this propaganda machine no longer even has a pseudophilosophy, because its audience has no patience beyond a single sentence with no relative clauses. The propaganda machine is busking. That is new.
Propaganda machine or Trumps twitter feed? He seems to have controlled the media from the very first day he came down that elevator. And the clowns are still dancing to the music.
You write:
Thank you!!!
Precisely.
AG
. . . ledger from your incriminating list, though, we have:
Given that all that’s already known hasn’t moved them to decency or responsibility, it feels almost impossible to imagine at this point that anything exists that could do so.
I hope your (relative) optimism proves correct and our cynical (relative) pessimism (or maybe just realism) proves wrong.
I guess we’ll see.
I’m taking a similar tack. Essentially I see myself as a realistic skeptic. If I see evidence that there’s actual movement among the GOP Congresscritters who currently enable his worst impulses to call for impeachment, I’ll gladly acknowledge that I need to change my mind on the matter. As for now, skepticism is called for.
You don’t think his fear of humiliation is enough?
Seriously?
I think it’s more than enough.
I think they respond that way based on what we know now.
The Republicans defended Nixon right up to the minute that they did not. I think the number of Republicans heading for the exits is a clear indication that the Trump presidency cannot be sustained.
FWIW, I firmly believe three things:
So, while I DO believe that Trump is effectively immune from serious repercussions now, he won’t be a year from now. Once Trump is impeached in the House, it’s anyone’s guess whether a sufficient number of Senate Republicans are finally willing to do the right thing and remove him.
And finally, even if I’m wrong and Trump is never impeached, you never stop fighting, because what alternative is there?
If we value democracy, there is no other alternative.
I have no faith in a return of Nancy “impeachment is off the table” Pelosi, but no party has impeached its own president ever. It was always the opposition. Even if Trump isn’t convicted, laying out all the evidence in public record will be helpful.
Here’s the other reason I’m not concerned about impeachment…tonight’s spectacular Democratic results in the elections in Missouri State House…huge swings from deep red to blue.
I see the House passed a six week CR with funds for the military and health care…nothing about DACA, though. Should be interesting to see what the Senate does.
Noticed that with the Missouri special elections. Democratic candidates generally continue to outperform the 2016 numbers. A good sign. I am under the impression that any DACA legislation will be stand-alone. That may not be a great idea, but we’ll see how that plays out. The drawback to being a minority party is that there isn’t a lot of power, except perhaps that of protest (and even that is rather limited). As much as some wince at the phrase “more and better Democrats,” ultimately that is the ballgame over the next few electoral cycles. With influence comes the ability to make Dolt 45’s life miserable, make life miserable for GOP leadership in general, and introduce positive legislation (that may or may not be vetoed). I’m skeptical about impeachment ever happening, but as mentioned upstream, with sufficient evidence that impeachment is within the realm of the plausible, I can be convinced to change my mind.
Because the investigation will reveal a number of criminal activities by him and those associated with him over the years. This will result in:
a) him losing in 2020
b) him going to jail afterwards
c) substantial financial losses.
He’s looking at three years in the White House followed by the rest of his life in the Big House. In addition, those years in the White House will be humiliating for him, and if the Republicans lose control of Congress he’ll be fairly constrained. So three miserable years followed by imprisonment. I’d say that’s a good reason to panic.
Trump might actually have to go to jail before he loses.
I’m not sure that being President legally or constitutionally shields you from imprisonment. Some of you legal beagles cite the relevant provision.
The question was why has Trump acted the way he does? Because he can’t stand anything detracting from his awesomeness. That they’re against him is reason enough for him to do anything he can to oppose them according to Art of the Deal.
He’s panicked about the investigation because he knows what he’s guilty of.
Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort and Rick Gates are already indicted. Jared Kushner and Don Jr. are in legal jeopardy. The investigation puts his family and businesses at risk, even if he’s effectively shielded by Republican partisans in Congress. He personally runs the risk of indictment on state charges if evidence emerges of fraud or other criminal activities. Even with Republican interference on his behalf, the investigation has prevented him from lifting sanctions on Russia, and blunted his ability to use the federal government for personal gain. It’s really hard to keep back channels open when all your collaborators risk going to jail.
And while a 1-in-100 chance of impeachment may seem small to you, it’s probably a pretty big deal to him.
Honestly, I originally expected the Republicans to toss him aside and let Pence take over. But they’ve been working overtime to protect him. If they wanted him gone, he’d be gone.
They don’t know. None of them know. They didn’t know Trump could win the nomination, or the presidency.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to believe that unless Mueller produces an almost indescribable and incredible smoking gun, everything gets drowned out in fake noise machine and absolute bad faith and brazen dishonesty from the GOP ecosystem. Just look at what we already know about Trump. Yeah they fought to deny it and lie about it, and looked desperate doing it, but now it’s old news. Is he in danger of removal right now? Evidently not. So what else could possibly hurt him? No one knows. We’re in a whole new era of political total warfare, outcomes are uncertain.
We’ve come a long way from the day when the Senate Republican caucus sent Barry Goldwater to tell Richard Nixon that it was all over and he better resign for the good of the Party, haven’t we? It seems nothing is too smelly for red or blue diehard fans to not ignore. Involving foreigners to dig up dirt, money laundering through a “charitable” foundation, business deals out of the Oval office, open bribes by wall street moguls .. the list goes on and on. At least the Daley Machine and Tammany Hall tried to hide the dirt. Today’s pols don’t even try to hide the dirt, they just cry out “He’s dirtier!”
Perhaps the slide into Caesarism is inevitable. At least Mussolini’s trains ran on time. No justice didn’t. but does it here? Don’t we have de facto Fascism? Whether lightly racist Italian style or full racist German style is the question.
My view is that, as long as the Democrats don’t at least control the HOR, the GOP just won’t impeach and convict him even though, I believe, he will be found to have committed at least one act of high treason though, as defined in the Constitution, that requires an act state of war (in this case with Russia), which is not
the case currently.
The only likely scenario is that a Democratic HOR initiate an impeachment debate and a group of GOP Senators meet with Trump to essentially force him to resign (more or less like what happened with Nixon).
I’ll go with number two. And there better be some good provable shite from Mueller and the HOR is not a slam dunk.
It’s none of these things. To be named as an “unindicted co-conspirator” is to besmirch the Trump name, and step all over his glorious victory, that he never gets tired of recounting over and over again at every opportunity.
He doesn’t think he can be impeached and removed, but the thought that people could attack him politically from within the government he runs, and he can’t just have them fired, and preferably imprisoned or executed like Putin does, boils his blood.
That causes the intense reaction. The mistake you make is in thinking he’s reacting rationally to the prospect of real legal jeopardy. That’s not how he operates. It’s all psychological – not being able to “hit back twice as hard” against his enemies that is so galling to him. He’s experiencing real constraints on his power, and as a would be dictator he doesn’t like it a bit.
The only thing I think of is to see this horrible, horrible man and his fat ass in jail. That will put a smile on face.