His numbers are bad but the president is still more popular than chlamydia, which is weird.
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BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
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Historical data predicted Trump would get a December-January bounce. He is now trending down, as also predicted by the historical data. He might peak once more, but the trend continues: Dems on track for +10 by November (large margin of error).
It’s that huge margin of error that will keep me up at night for the next several months. I’m hopeful, but it’s going to be close as far as flipping the House.
We will know better in ~100 days.
That sounds about right.
It’s okay the Russians and the GOP are working hard to make sure there won’t be a Democratic wave.
Clamida?
use to be a joke: Herpes, Aids, gonorrhea, a condo in Galveston. Which on doesn’t belong?
gonorrhea. You can get rid of gonorrhea
That’s a good one.
So, we’re hoping that Trump is more like gonorrhea than he is like herpes.
Herpes is mostly a meh since a lot of people have it.
That’s an odd thing to say.
I assume you are confusing HSV type 1 which causes oral herpes and HSV-2 which is the normal culprit in genital herpes.
In the weeks after 9/11, I realized that nearly my whole office had HSV-1, which appeared suddenly because of stress.
I do not believe everyone I know has genital herpes.
People who voted for that asshole are never, ever going to admit they were wrong because in their minds they aren’t wrong about him. He cut taxes like he promised, and they’re getting more money in their paychecks, He’s sticking to his vows to cut down on immigration and he might yet get his Wall. He’s rude, he’s a bully, and he’s not taking any trade deficits anymore. He played around a few years ago, but hey, he’s a hound dog and that’s all in the past.
Polls are unreliable. Pollsters ask Republicans and they ask Democrats, they ask different age groups and people of different income levels and try to get a balanced read, but I don’t know who you trust and what does it matter? He is still the president and he’s still an idiot. But the Republicans love what he’s getting done.
He may not be popular, but somebody out there loves him.
The main thing with polling is that you are getting an estimate from a sample of what the population might be up to. There is going to be sampling error (each time you draw an identical size sample it will yield somewhat different results) and measurement error (that has to do the actual questionnaires and so on). So I look at the estimates and that margin of error. I also still prefer aggregators to individual polls, and with individual polls tend to be very picky as to pollsters to trust. But even then, I have to remember that all I have is what is probably true, give or take a few percentage points. Living with uncertainty is not comforting, but it is all we have.
Even Trumps win was essentially that of a normal polling error.
Yep. Nate Silver was among those warning that HRC’s generally consistent lead over those last weeks or so of the 2016 electoral season were within the margin of error. They overlapped just enough to where a Trump win was plausible. Improbable, I’ll still go with that. Improbable does not mean impossible. Those who were complacent about the electoral vote outcome in particular were in for a bitter disappointment (honestly – it was a bitter disappointment even being hyper-aware of what could happen). Those margins of error tend to come back to haunt those who ignore them.
. . . understand their . . . erm . . . “significance”.
I don’t know why people forget but there were an awful lot of undecideds for a race with two people that had 100% name ID. That alone should have served as a warning.
Remember all those people calling out Silver as irresponsible for sticking to the polls that final weekend?
Wasn’t Clamidia the emperor that succeeded Caligula? Also, I assume these surveys still don’t include people who just have cell phones, which, if true, means there’s a fairly sizable (and growing) distortion in the sampling.
those registered republicans who 80% approve of Drumpf’s deplorable performance – they like chlamydia just fine, as long as it only infects brown people. ya I know we gotta win ’em over with economic arguments, but it sure does nothing to change the fact that the R’s are USDA Grade A Assholes who are very happy to burn it all down if whitey can’t have one hundred percent. they even have the purple ink stamp to prove it – just look sometime. 🙂
In response to the Florida kids stepping up to the plate Tom Steyer has put up $1 million to help get 18 year olds registered to vote this Fall.
After the March 24 March for Life that looks like it’s still gathering strength I won’t be surprised if we see a huge spike in the direction of Dems and those who don’t take contributions from NRA. They may start out as single-issue voters but that’s a good beginning.
When we start to see single issue voters form coalitions it could be massive swing.
“They may start out as single-issue voters but that’s a good beginning.
When we start to see single issue voters form coalitions it could be massive swing. “
This!
Great idea. Hope others join this effort.
Has anyone come across research and what not regarding, for lack of a better term, respondents becoming more sophisticated in poll responses as media drivers?
I’ve seen bits and pieces about respondents being aware enough of what a poll will look like for their side if published, therefore, they respond accordingly regardless of how they really feel.
I ask because, as an anthropologist, one of the first things you learn is there is Grand Canyon-size divide between what people say and what people do. So I’ve always been dubious about polling, especially as we predictably watch conservative yet again jettison EVERY FUCKING “core belief” they screamed about under Clinton and Obama in order to support Der Leader!
Polls in my own state had the Orange Shit Gibbon losing to a third party candidate only to capture 60% of the vote on election night. Basically, Trumpshirts were lying about their support when asked and, even today, you won’t know my fellow citizens support him up to 80%.
Utah, perchance? I know that what little polling done in that state had Trump behind an independent candidate for a while (Evan Mullin, right?). If so, HRC also was usually trailing that same independent candidate around that same time, if memory serves. One thing about elections is that third party/independent candidates tend to shed support as election day nears, and voters often end up supporting the candidate of the party that they normally identify with (or lean towards if we’re talking about independent voters). If not Utah, I am really curious as to which state.
It is Utah and Evan Mullin was the Libertarian candidate projected to win the state until about 8 o’clock MST when Trump’s won Utah in a landslide. Maybe it was just the media pumping in artificial drama based on outlier polls to keep people watching.
And of course I keep getting that guy’s spelling wrong (McMullin). He briefly looked like a front-runner in Utah, but partisan loyalty eventually won out. McMullin did surprisingly well given that he was essentially a man without a party apparatus. I expected HRC to be trounced in Utah, but I did not expect Trump to get slightly less than 50% of the vote there. McMullin’s modest success speaks to the dissatisfaction that Utah GOP voters had in their standard bearer at the time. As of the end of January, Trump was still apparently under the 50% mark in terms of approval in Utah. Trump fares well in the northern plains and Rockies and in parts of the Appalachian and Ozark states. Outside of that, he’s under water. Sticking with historical precedent – I expect Trump will continue to slide in terms of favorability. He might get a bump later in the year, but the opportunity to go from an unpopular candidate to one who might gain goodwill from the populace has long since passed.