Trump Pays Legal Fees of Witnesses Against Him

The way the Trump administration is paying for its legal defense seems like an ethical quagmire to me. The big news out right now is focused on payments to lawyers representing Michael Cohen:

The Trump campaign has spent nearly $228,000 to cover some of the legal expenses for President Donald Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen, sources familiar with the payments tell ABC News, raising questions about whether the Trump campaign may have violated campaign finance laws.

Federal Election Commission records show three payments made from the Trump campaign to a firm representing Cohen. The “legal consulting” payments were made to McDermott Will and Emery — a law firm where Cohen’s attorney Stephen Ryan is a partner — between October 2017 and January 2018.

Cohen has said that he did not have a formal role in the Trump campaign, and it is illegal to spend campaign funds for personal use – defined by the FEC as payments for expenses “that would exist irrespective of the candidate’s campaign or responsibilities as a federal officeholder.”

“They’re on shaky legal ground,” said Stephen Spaulding, chief of strategy at the nonprofit watchdog group Common Cause. “It sounds like they are really pushing the envelope … If the campaign were to say they are campaign-related payments, then maybe it’s okay to use campaign funds. But he can’t have it both ways.”

But Cohen is just one piece of this puzzle:

In 2017, the Trump campaign also paid legal fees to the attorneys representing top aides – and family members – tangled in the ongoing Russia probes. The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee paid $514,000 in legal fees for Donald Trump Jr, and in January, the Trump campaign paid more than $66,000 to the law firm representing former Trump bodyguard Keith Schiller, who has been a fixture at Trump’s side for decades and served as Trump’s director of Oval Office operations until September.

There’s a sense in which I understand that a campaign should step up and help people who worked on the election team pay for any legal liabilities that came about as a result of their job responsibilities. But we’re primarily talking about people who are potential witnesses against the president. When he pays their legal bills, that gives them an incentive to shade their testimony.

The lawyers and courts can sort out what’s legal and what’s a violation of campaign finance laws, but there’s a bigger ethical issue here.

Can the Dems Expand the Senate Map?

I follow politics closer than the average person, but I still can’t say that I have more than a superficial understanding of the politics of all fifty states. For example, if I want to know why Phil Bredesen has a chance to win a U.S. Senate seat in Tennessee but Dave Freudenthal of Wyoming isn’t running for a U.S. Senate seat in Wyoming and probably wouldn’t have a chance in hell if he did, then I have to do some research. Both men, during the last decade, were popular two-term Democratic governors in blood red states. Yet, it’s Bredesen who has made the plunge and has been leading Rep. Marsha Blackburn in recent polls.

On the House side, the Democrats are at long last taking my advice and running hard in rural districts, and it’s beginning to look like there’s some hope on the Senate side, too. There’s even talk that Lincoln City Council member Jane Raybould might make a real contest out of Sen. Deb Fischer’s reelection bid in Nebraska. I have to admit that I didn’t see that coming.

The Democrats were disappointed that both Evan Bayh and Russ Feinstein lost their bids to rejoin the Senate. Had they won, the Democrats would have had a majority during the first Congress of Trump’s presidency. But the voters weren’t in the mood to go back in time, and the skills and strategies that Bayh and Feinstein had used to be successful candidates in the past did not translate to our new era of politics. It’s possible that Bredesen will meet a similar fate. But it’s also possible that we’re in a completely different cycle and the people of Tennessee will swing like a pendulum toward the kind of non–ideological stylings that Bredesen is offering.

I can’t say that the former Volunteer State governor is using my playbook. He appears to be pursuing a classic Blue Dog strategy of presenting a business-friendly profile while criticizing the national Democratic Party at every turn. It may work since the Republican establishment in Tennessee is beginning to show the same kind of splits that we’ve seen in states like Kansas where moderates are willing to crossover to elect or vote with Democrats to marginalize the hard right.  We don’t see the same kinds of fissures in places like Wyoming, and however radical Senator Barrasso’s voting record might be, he isn’t unpopular or controversial at home in the same way that Deb Fischer of Nebraska and Marsha Blackburn appear to be.

It’s definitely more difficult for Democrats to win federal than statewide office in red states, just as it’s easier for the Republicans to win gubernatorial races in places like Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland than it is for them to compete for Senate seats in those states. That’s why it was a bigger upset when Doug Jones won Jeff Sessions’s seat in Alabama than when John Bel Edwards replaced Bobby Jindal in Louisiana.

Control of the Senate may turn on whether Democratic candidates can make breakthroughs in places where they’ve been doing very poorly of late. Tennessee and Nebraska weren’t considered promising places to pick up Senate seats when this cycle began. The Democrats could potentially beat Ted Cruz in Texas and one of the two seats up for election in Mississippi. On the other hand, they could blow what look like promising opportunities to win seats in Arizona and Nevada or even see a bunch of their incumbents fall in Trump states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, West Virginia, and Florida.

It’s too early to forecast the Senate elections, but the map is expanding in a way that is unfavorable to the Republicans. They never thought Tennessee would be in play and it most definitely is going to be a competitive race. I just wish Bredesen was offering something a little newer and fresher rather than running almost exclusively on a good record that he compiled in a different era that feels like it might as well have been decades ago.

Netanyahu to Make Announcement on a Nuclear Iran

Netanyahu to make ‘significant’ announcement on Iran

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will deliver a speech at 8pm (local time) on Monday evening on a “significant development regarding the nuclear agreement with Iran,” according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

No more details were given of the announcement, which will be made from the Kiryah military headquarters in Tel Aviv, according to a brief statement from Netanyahu’s office.

 Netanyahu spoke by phone with US President Donald Trump over the weekend about Iran, according to the White House.

 A statement on Sunday said: “The two leaders discussed the continuing threats and challenges facing the Middle East region, especially the problems posed by the Iranian regime’s destabilizing activities.”

More below the fold …

Netanyahu to address country with ‘dramatic news about Iran’ Monday night  | JPost / Reuters |

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will make a televised announcement Monday evening in what his office said would disclose “dramatic news” regarding the nuclear agreement with Iran.

In a corresponding move, Netanyahu cancelled a scheduled speech at the Knesset in honor of Theodore Herzl day. Channel 10 reports Meir Ben Shabbat, head of the National Security Council, will hold phone calls with colleagues in the UK and France to update them about developments with the Iranian nuclear program.

The announcement will be made from Israel’s military headquarters in Tel Aviv, according to a brief statement from Netanyahu’s office.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif disparaged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as “the boy who can’t stop crying wolf” in a Twitter post, ahead of the Israeli leader’s speech.

Saudi Arabia eyes better Iran deal amid Pompeo visit | Gulf News |

New US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reassured Saudi Arabia that the United States would abandon the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, reached under President Donald Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama, unless there is an agreement in talks with European partners to improve it to make sure the Islamic Republic never possesses a nuclear weapons.

“Iran destabilises this entire region,” Pompeo said in a joint press conference with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al Jubeir.

“It supports proxy militias and terrorist groups. It is an arms dealer to Al Houthi rebels in Yemen. It supports the murderous Al Assad regime (in Syria) as well.”

 « click for more info
A few days ago Pompeo stressed no decision made on Iran nuclear deal  


Pompeo met briefly with Saudi King Salman on Sunday before heading directly to Occupied Jerusalem for talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The visit by Pompeo was hailed by observers as an indication of the US commitment to the defence of Saudi Arabia, and other friends and partners in the region, they said.

Pompeo’s firm stance on Tehran’s aggression could have profound implications for regional stability | The National |
European powers reaffirm support for Iran nuclear deal | DW |

From Moscow …

Russia, China Denounce U.S. Efforts To Change Iran Deal, World Trade Rules | RFERL |

US Marines Don’t Intervene in the Levant

Not under Eisenhower – Kennedy – Johnson – [blank – Vietnam War] upto and included Bill Clinton – George Bush – Barack Obama – Donald Trump.

Telegram From the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon to the Department of State  Beirut , July 25, 1958--5 p.m.

It was agreed by Chamoun, Chehab and ourselves that contemplated plan of operations initiated today against Basta, even though it did not contemplate taking entire area, would have salutary political effect prior to elections scheduled July 31. We also agreed it essential that such action be taken at once if position of our own forces in respect to public opinion here and elsewhere were not to be jeopardized as well as for need to reinforce respect for authority of Lebanon Government.

Upshot of a two-hour interview in which President Chamoun took minutes of the meeting were following three conclusions:

  1.  Starting at 1400 today, Lebanon army would commence its operation to curtail size of Basta but not to take Basta.
  2.  US forces would so far as possible replace Lebanese forces in static positions. Lebanese troops thus relieved would be used in Chehab’s striking force to be used against the Basta or elsewhere.
  3.  US to respond affirmatively for Lebanon military request for matériel. This would include equipment for psy war, such as loudspeaker trucks, teargas, and other necessary arms or munition. [Page 397]

Secretary Murphy added a fourth point that as this was a police action, there should be cooperation to improve psychological warfare efficacy.

Chehab was emphatic that a joint operation by American and Lebanon troops would bring about the immediate dissolution of his army as an effective instrument.

====

1. Source: Department of State, Central Files, 783A.00/7-2558. Secret; Niact. Holloway sent a separate report on this meeting to Admiral Burke in CINCSPECOMME telegram 6238 to CNO, July 25. (National Archives and Records Administration, RG 218, JCS Files: CCS Lebanon (5-13-58) Sec. 4; included in the microfiche supplement)
2.  See Document 229 .

More below the fold …

U.S. Marines in Lebanon – 1958

This is a history of the Marine Corps participation in the Lebanon Crisis from July-October 1958.  It is published to show the role of the U. S. Marine Corps in carrying out American foreign policy and the pacification of a country through a successful show of force.  The account is based on the records of the U. S. Marine Corps and selected records of the U. S. Army, Navy, Air Force, and Department of State.  In addition appropriate published accounts have been utilized.

The Political Background

     The waning British and French influence in the Middle East after World War II gave rise to constant strife in this area of the world.  The region was not only stirred by the growth of local nationalism but also by the conflict between the East and West in the Cold War.  Crisis followed crisis as the newly independent states attempted to adjust to the post war world.

     In 1948, after the British had given up the attempt to pacify Palestine, Jews and Arabs clashed in the short Arab-Israeli War of that year.  The antagonism between the Jewish state of Israel and its Arab neighbors has become a permanent feature of Middle East relations.  This hostility was intensified by the 1952 revolution in Egypt and the subsequent rise to undisputed power in 1954 of its strongest figure, Gamal Abdul Nasser.  Sparked by his leadership, there arose a new mutant pan-Arab movement over which Egypt attempted to gain hegemony.  “This Arab Nationalism contributed to a series of events–the Egyptian arms deal with Russia, the withdrawal of the U. S. offer to assist the Aswan Dam project, and Nasser’s nationalization of the Suez Canal–that culminated in the Suez crisis of 1956, when the Israelis attacked Egypt and the British and French intervened.”  This intervention, though blocked by the United Nations, served to reinforce Arab anti-Western sentiments.  The Arab unrest led to civil strife in Lebanon, and the overthrow of a Western aligned government in Iraq in 1958.

     The Western Powers feared the complete disintegration of the peace in the Middle East and the possibility of Soviet exploitation of the crisis.  The overt American reaction was to send U. S. Marines to Lebanon on 15 July 1958 at the request of that government.  This Marine landing was a practical example of the use of amphibious forces to support U. S. foreign policy by the application of military strength and mobility.

     In historic times, its geographical location at the eastern end of the Mediterranean made Lebanon the crossroads to Africa, Europe, and Asia.  The country has been an important commercial and trading center since the time of the ancient Phoenicians.  Its mountainous barrier has enabled the nation to maintain a distinctive identity throughout the centuries.  In the 20th century, the construction of pipelines from the oil fields of Iran and Saudi Arabia to the Lebanese port cities of Tripoli and Sidon increased the strategic importance of the country.

Heart of Beirut – tradition of western values by citizens living alongside Muslims in Arab and Islamic culture … stop intervention and the proxy wars of bloodshedding.

    [photo downtown Beirut]

Assad’s Syria as US Ally and Base for Torture

Canadian citizen Maher Arar was arrested in New York in 2002 and deported to Syria to be tortured | CBC |

A former spy has described the debate within the CIA over the arrest, rendition and torture of Canadian Maher Arar, saying multiple colleagues warned against it because they were convinced they were punishing an innocent man.

The account from former CIA officer John Kiriakou sheds new light on decade-old events that caused a public inquiry in Canada, a $10 million payout from the federal government, and unsuccessful lawsuits in the U.S.

It’s a rare peek into discussions within the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency — whose role in the 2002-03 events has never been publicly examined, having remained off-limits in Canada’s inquiry.

It came during an interview at the ex-spy’s Virginia home, where he described how he went from being the head of counterterrorism operations in Pakistan after 9-11, to becoming the first CIA employee to publicly question the use of torture, to eventually spending two years in jail for leaking agency secrets.

During that interview, Kiriakou declined to discuss whether he’d interacted with Canada’s spy services — because, he said, revealing details about a foreign partner remains a cardinal sin in the world of espionage.

U.S. official key to sending Maher Arar to Syria torture appointed law professor

U.S. House Hearing on Foreign Affairs: Torture and the Case of Maher Arar

    Arar’s story also demonstrates how a democracy should respond when such a wrong has been done. Canada undertook an extensive high-level official investigation of Arar’s treatment, and Canada’s complicity in it. It issued a lengthy report fully exonerating Mr. Arar and harshly criticizing Canadian authorities. And it paid Arar a substantial damages award for its complicity in the wrongs that the United States and Syria inflicted on him. By contrast, the United States argues that Arar’s claims cannot even be heard in court, claiming that its interest in secrecy trumps even the prohibition on torture.

Obama’s pledge to “look forward” on torture doesn’t apply to John Kiriakou
How [Sunni] Arab states helped the CIA with its torture-linked rendition program
Delivered into Enemy Hands: US-Led Abuse and Rendition of Opponents to Gaddafi’s Libya | HRW |

Thanks, Don!

Trump gives John Tester a yuge fundraising boost.

https://crooksandliars.com/2018/04/trump-makes-empty-threat-sen-john-tester

The Nerds Bring It On Themselves

Your required reading this morning is a column Sally Quinn wrote hack in November 1998 about how the Washington elite was coping with the unfolding l’affaire Lewinsky. You should read it this morning even if you’ve read it many times before. Once you do, its relevancy will be apparent to you.

It will help you understand the seemingly curious phenomenon you’re seeing in your social media feeds at the moment, where one Beltway insider after another races to defend the honor of Sarah Huckabee Sanders against the “mean” and “cruel” jokes that were told about her at last night’s Nerd Prom.

The comedienne hired for the occasion, Michelle Wolf, continued what is by now a well-established tradition. She accepted an invitation to appear at the White House Correspondents Dinner. She proceeded to point out how incredibly fucked up our politics have become and to point her finger at the primary culprits, including a supine media more interested in access and ratings than in telling truth to power. Her jokes were suitably biting, and not really intended to get laughs unless through cringing clenched teeth.

The guests of this annual gala should know this is coming because it happens every year. Some comics are funnier than others, but for the people in the audience it is an exercise in self-flagellation. And it’s not a good-humored roast, even if the jokes are often just as nasty. It’s a barely disguised bitter condemnation. Basically, they hire someone to come in and tell them how horrible they are.

Of course, the grimmer the picture in our capital at the time, the more brutal the act. Start a war based on lies and get hundreds of thousands of people killed while destabilizing a whole region? That gets you the Stephen Colbert treatment. Things have gotten worse since then.

But whatever faults President Trump may have and however deceitful and contemptuous his press secretary may be, they are citizens of The Village and there are limits on how much disrespect you can show them.

By taking some personal shots at Huckabee Sanders, Michelle Wolf caused a defensive reflex. In part, the correspondents are afraid that if the Trump administration doesn’t see a tweet in their feed in defense of Huckabee Sanders that there will be negative repercussions for their access. But it’s also just a standard part of this ritual. The comedian arrives, insults people primarily by telling the truth about them, then the media criticize the comedian for being impolite and not all that funny. They usually don’t express outrage about the shots that were aimed at them because that would draw more attention to those criticisms. Instead, they deflect people’s focus onto how the president or members of his administration were mistreated.

A lot has changed since Sally Quinn wrote that piece in 1998. For one, the Village had higher standards back then. They expected more from their president than tawdry furtive Oval Office blow jobs from unpaid interns. At this point, that kind of behavior would be a welcome improvement. Bush’s failures and Trump’s presidency have beaten them down.

But their world still revolves around 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and they still want to maintain a certain majesty to the place bolstered by myths they feel morally and patriotically bound to concoct and promulgate. They know it’s a sham and that they deserve criticism for it, which is why they keep going back to Nerd Prom every year to get their dose of abuse.

While they were listening to Michelle Wolf tell them what shits they are last night in Washington DC, the president was telling them what shits they are in Washington Township in Michigan.

That they’re responding by defending the president’s press secretary shows less sense of self-awareness and preservation than Patty Hearst demonstrated during her Symbionese crime spree.

East-West Freedom of Press Under Attack

World Press Freedom Index 2018: Europe turning into crisis region for journalists | DW |

The rise of populist politics in Europe has weakened press freedom in a region where it was once most secure, according to Reporters Without Borders. China, Russia and Donald Trump also pose threats to journalists.

Hostility toward journalists and media poses a serious threat to democracies around the world, including within Europe, the media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF) announced in its 2018 World Press Freedom Index.

As a region, Europe still ranks the highest on RSF’s index, but its rating also dropped more than that of any other region this year.

 « click for world map 2017

Populism on the rise and journalists used by politicians as targets of discontent for the masses

More below the fold …

Four of the top five countries where press freedom deteriorated the most are in Europe.

Malta, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Serbia all fell substantially. The watchdog voiced particular concern about the murder of journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia in Malta, followed by the killing of investigative reporter Jan Kuciak just five months later in Slovakia.

With the rise of populist politics and “strongman” leaders, Europe’s downward trend will likely continue, according to RSF. Last year, Czech President Milos Zeman showed up at a press conference with a fake Kalashnikov bearing the words “for journalists.” Robert Fico, who resigned as Slovakia’s prime minister in March, called journalists “filthy, anti-Slovak prostitutes” and “idiotic hyenas.”

Draconian secrecy measures are being quietly ushered in. We must fight them

Under new proposals, journalists and whistleblowers could face 14 years in jail for handling government data. It’s part of a trend towards the silencing of dissent.

Last year, suspicionless surveillance of the lawful activities of ordinary citizens was authorised on a scale unprecedented in any other western democracy. Those of us who warned that the Investigatory Powers Act‘s provisions in respect of the indiscriminate collection and retention of electronic communications were of dubious legality have already been vindicated by the court of justice of the European Union. The precise impact of the decision will now be confirmed by the court of appeal, which referred the matter to the court of justice.

Now, only months after the passage of the act, proposals that pose a further significant threat to civil liberties and freedom of expression have been quietly published by the Law Commission with no fanfare and not even a press release. The recommendations of the Law Commission of England and Wales are contained in a 326-page consultation paper entitled Protection of Official Data. Their proposals are extensive and could lead to a new espionage act replacing the Official Secrets Act.

While there can be no doubt that the law needs to be updated for the digital era, the need to simplify, clarify and modernise the law should not be used as an excuse to introduce draconian powers that fly in the face of the previous consensus that the “mere receipt” of official information should not be a criminal offence. Unfortunately, this is just what is proposed.

The changes in the law envisaged include criminalising obtaining and gathering as well as publishing government data – provided the UK government claims there would be damage. The previous requirement that the government should prove that there would be damage is to be dispensed with. The proposals put leaking and whistleblowing in the same category as spying for foreign powers. If enacted, they would criminalise hackers, leakers, elected politicians, journalists and NGOs.

There will be no definition of “national security“. This is particularly problematic, because the courts tend to respond with considerable deference to government claims of national security, viewing them not as a matter of law, but as executive-led policy judgements. National security as a legal test is therefore meaningless.

UK Foreign Office threaten former Ambassador Murray over book on rendition and torture in Uzbekistan

From my diary at the time of the Ghouta chemical attack – perpetrators still unknown.

British MOD Issued DA-notice on Snowden

Defiance of the advisory could make British journalists vulnerable to prosecution under the Official Secrets Act.

The June 7 “DA-Notice,” or Defence Advisory Notice, which was itself confidential, accepted that the U.S. National Security Agency was sharing information gleaned from the surveillance programs with its British counterparts, and said UK intelligence organizations were worried about revelations of their own roles in the programs.

    DA-Notice, June 7, 2013

    Private and Confidential: Not for publication, broadcast or use on social media.

    Defence Advisory Notice

    There have been a number of articles recently in connection with some of the ways in which the UK Intelligence Services obtain information from foreign sources.

    Although none of these recent articles has contravened any of the guidelines contained within the Defence Advisory Notice System, the intelligence services are concerned that further developments of this same theme may begin to jeopardize both national security and possibly UK personnel…

It warned British media not to publish information on “specific covert operations, sources and methods of the security services, SIS and GCHQ [the NSA’s British counterpart], Defence Intelligence Units, Special Forces and those involved with them, the application of those methods, including the interception of communications and their targets; the same applies to those engaged on counter-terrorist operations.”

British news organizations are concerned about the tenor of the advance warning.

NSL Gag Orders and the 1st Amendmant US Constitution

Judge quashes law, warrants authorizing RCMP raid on Citizen reporter

An Ontario Superior Court judge has struck down a law used to obtain search warrants that authorized controversial RCMP raids on Citizen journalist Juliet O’Neill’s home and office in January 2004.

Judge Lynn Ratushny ruled yesterday that parts of Section 4 of the Security of Information Act are unconstitutional because they violate the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

She also found the RCMP abused proper process by using the warrants to threaten Ms. O’Neill with criminal prosecution unless she revealed the source of leaked information in a Nov. 8, 2003 story about Maher Arar, a Syrian-born Canadian citizen whom American authorities arrested and deported to Syria in October 2002.

Ms. O’Neill has never been charged, but the Crown had held out the possibility that charges could yet be laid. That evaporated, however, with yesterday’s ruling.

In her judgement, Judge Ratushny quashed the two search warrants authorizing the raid and ordered the return of material seized from Ms. O’Neill. In a highly unusual move in a criminal case, she also ordered the government to pay the newspaper’s legal costs, expected to run into hundreds of thousands of dollars.

The ruling was applauded as a vigorous affirmation of the importance of press freedom.

“It was a black day when they raided Julie’s home and office,” said lawyer Richard Dearden who, along with University of Ottawa law professor David Paciocco, argued the case for the Citizen. “Now the sun is shining again on the importance of free press in this country.

“The judge has said point blank that the RCMP can’t threaten a reporter with criminal charges to try to uncover a confidential source. The judge has said point blank that you can’t treat the media as an investigative arm of the police.”  

My diary from August 2013, just days before the Ghouta attack …

Tomgram: Peter Van Buren, The Manning Trial Began on 9/11

(TomDispatch) – Close your eyes for a moment, think about recent events, and you could easily believe yourself in a Seinfeldian Bizarro World. Now, open them and, for a second, everything looks almost familiar… and then you notice that a dissident is fleeing a harsh and draconian power, known for its global surveillance practices, use of torture, assassination campaigns, and secret prisons, and has found a haven in a heartless world in… hmmm… Russia. That dissident, of course, is Edward Snowden, just granted a year’s temporary asylum in Russia, a.k.a. the defender of human rights and freedom 2013, and so has been released from a Washington-imposed imprisonment in Moscow’s international air terminal and the threat of far worse.

How we lost our Constitution somewhere in Iraq and came back without it to Try Manning

On July 30, 1778, the Continental Congress created the first whistleblower protection law, stating “that it is the duty of all persons in the service of the United States to give the earliest information to Congress or other proper authority of any misconduct, frauds, or misdemeanors committed by any officers or persons in the service of these states.”

Two hundred thirty-five years later, on July 30, 2013, Bradley Manning was found guilty on 20 of the 22 charges for which he was prosecuted, specifically for “espionage” and for videos of war atrocities he released, but not for “aiding the enemy.”

Days after the verdict, with sentencing hearings in which Manning could receive 136 years of prison time ongoing, the pundits have had their say. The problem is that they missed the most chilling aspect of the Manning case: the way it ushered us, almost unnoticed, into post-Constitutional America.

My earlier diary about Obama and the war on whistleblowers … invoking the Espionage Act of 1917!

Cold War Rage Implementing Intelligence, PsyOps, Internet Troops | The Guardian – Aug. 2015 |
Obama Administration More Secretive Than Nixon’s
Obama’s abuse of the Espionage Act is modern-day McCarthyism | The Guardian Opinion – John Kiriakou |
Obama and the NSA Winning the War Against Journalists?

During Iraq War by the United States and ally United Kingdom, there were embedded journalists, advised for their own safety. A high number of journalists were targeted by US forces and twice the offices of Al Jazeera came under attack: in Kabul and in Baghdad. Bush and Blair even discussed the option to bomb the Al Jazeera HQ in Doha. The Americans have no shame …

SPP Vol.663 & Old Time Froggy Botttom Cafe

Hello again painting fans.

This week I will be continuing with the Tudor-style Victorian in Goshen, NY.    The photo that I’m using is seen directly below along with a photo that shows the house in less glaring light.  I’ll be using my usual acrylic paints on an 8×10 inch canvas.

When last seen, the painting appeared as it does in the photo seen directly below.

Since that time I have continued to work on the painting.

For this week’s cycle I have continued my work on the central structure.  I’ve added some additional brown to the siding as well as some yellow to the gable end and dormer.  Below, the hedge and surrounding area has some initial pale color.  Finally, the roof has been overpainted in a pale gray.

The current state of the painting is seen in the photo directly below.

I’ll have more progress to show you next week. See you then.

Earlier paintings in this series can be seen here.  (Currently under reconstruction.)

Are Republicans Leaving Trump or Not?

Our old friend Ed Kilgore attempts to solve the puzzle presented by the difference between the special election results, which show a sharp move in the Democrats’ favor, and the comparatively weak advantage the Democrats enjoy in the generic congressional preference polls. While he doesn’t come down with a conclusive answer, he wisely suggests that the Democrats should be cautious about being overly optimistic about their chances in November.

One thing I think is not getting enough consideration in this debate, however, is the evidence that a lot of Trump voters are voting for Democrats in these special elections. We saw this in Pennsylvania’s special election and again in Arizona’s. What we might expect to see is a big difference in turnout where Democrats are turning out in higher than expected numbers and Republicans are staying home. This would explain how districts that voted for Trump in huge numbers are now nail-biters or even Democratic pickups. But, at most, this only explains a fraction of the deterioration in the Republicans’ level of support in these recent special elections. A larger factor appears to be that a significant number of registered Republicans are turning out but not voting for the Republican candidate.

This contrasts with consistent polling that shows Trump retaining a high level of support from Republicans, so it needs some explaining. It could be an artifact of the difference between looking at how people are registered and how they are currently self-identifying. If you no longer consider yourself a Republican but are still registered as one, then there can be a disconnect between the poll results and how actual ballots are cast. But, in this case, these would be registered Republicans who voted Republican as recently as 2016. As they fall off as self-reporting Republicans, Trump is still able to retain a high level of support for those who still self-identify as Republican.

I suspect this explains some of the discrepancy we’re seeing. Actual elections are an infinitely better measure than opinion surveys of what the voting public actual thinks. And by that measure, the Republicans are losing support from within.

This matters because Ed is correct when he notes that turnout in November is likely to be older and whiter than in presidential years, as is always the case, and so we should expect some of the GOP slippage to be corrected for that reason alone. It will help the Republicans counteract at least some of their enthusiasm deficit. But if the Republicans who turn out don’t vote for the Republican candidates at their normal rate, that’s how a tsunami can occur.