Phillip Bump of the Washington Post has a helpful article up that helps us understand the law that established the process for a special counsel, including how a special counsel can and cannot be removed. As part of his analysis, he points at that Congress has at long last decided to add some protections for Robert Mueller so that President Trump will find it more difficult to fire him, but he also warns that even if the law passes and is signed into law by Trump (or Congress overrides his veto), the president can still find ways to obstruct justice.
The action in the Senate is happening initially in that chamber’s Judiciary Committee which is chaired by Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa. Sen. Grassley is moving a bill that is sponsored by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and co-sponsored by Sens. Lindsey Graham, Chris Coons and Cory Booker.
The Post’s Karoun Demirjian reports that the bipartisan bill would mandate a 10-day waiting period after an order to fire the special counsel, during which period the firing could be appealed to a panel of three judges — and during which time no staff changes could be made to the special counsel’s team and no documents could be destroyed.
In other words, Trump would not be able to send people in to confiscate Mueller’s records and his decision to fire him would have to pass muster with the judicial branch of the government. But if Trump were to instead to simply fire Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and replace him with someone else, he could gain control over what Mueller can and cannot do.
As we noted on Tuesday, though, replacing Rosenstein gives Trump another way to interfere with the investigation. Remember: Rosenstein gets final say over prosecutions and areas of investigation. Replacing Rosenstein with someone willing to help derail Mueller would allow Trump to tie Mueller’s hands. The new deputy attorney general could simply block any new indictments or, as an expert told me, likely scale back the scope of the investigation in significant ways. Mueller would still be in place — he just wouldn’t be able to do as much.
If Trump were to fire Rosenstein, Jeff Sessions would remain recused and the responsibility of overseeing Mueller’s investigation would fall to Solicitor General Noel Francisco. Francisco would be in control of Mueller until a new Deputy Attorney General could be confirmed by the Senate, and since anyone seeking confirmation would have to make promises that the president would not like to see kept, the only solution for Trump would be to leave that position vacant. In Francisco wasn’t willing to obstruct justice to Trump’s liking, he would still have one more card to play.
…the Vacancies Act of 1998 allows Trump to fill Senate-confirmed positions (like deputy attorney general) with anyone who has already received Senate confirmation for another position. There’s a question about whether that process applies to positions vacated after someone was fired, mind you, but it seems likely that Trump could successfully argue that it does.
In other words, Trump could fill the vacant position of Deputy Attorney General with anyone who has been confirmed by the Senate to a position in his administration during his presidency, including people who have since left their positions like former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson or former Secretary of Veterans Affairs David Shulkin. More likely, Trump would pick someone who would more favorably inclined to help him break the spirit of the law.
This is all interesting but if Trump actually pursues some convoluted plan like this, the Republicans in Congress are going to flip out. I know people are rightly cynical that the Republicans will ever break with Trump, but we’re already seeing them take their first steps. That they’re going to vote to protect Mueller in the Senate Judiciary Committee is significant and would not be happening if Mitch McConnell hadn’t signed off on it.
As for the House, presumably you have seen this rant from an unnamed Republican congressman who said of Trump, “Dammit, he’s taking us all down with him. We are well and truly f**ked in November,” and “We’re going to lose the House, lose the Senate, and lose a bunch of states because of him…If we’re going to lose because of him, we might as well impeach the motherf**ker. Take him out with us and let Mike [Pence] take over. At least then we could sleep well at night.”
Trump is skating on extremely thin ice as it is, and James Comey is coming next week loaded for bear. What Trump can technically do is good to know. But if he thinks he can shut down this investigation now and get away with it, he’s sorely mistaken.
Trump is already having trouble filling numerous roles in his administration. I just don’t see him being able to pull off switching out Rosenstein. Whomever that is, everyone would know they were chosen for their willingness to be a hatchet man. It would be a career and reputation killer. That person would enter the history books as a venal Justice obstructor.
.
For the right kind of (offshore, Bitcoin, whatever) extremely large payoff, I bet they could find someone to take the reputational hit.
You can’t just pick any bum off the street and put him in as Dpty. AG. The person needs to be confirmed by the Senate.
Unless they’ve already been confirmed for some other position.
Which doesn’t make sense to me. Cabinet Secretaries are not interchangeable. Good for Interior? You’ll be fine at State or Treasury. No, no, no.
When has competence, or the right skill set for a particular job, ever mattered to this administration?
Yes. But that just shows how stupid the Vacancies Act is. I suppose it was assumed that the prez and senate would operate in the nation’s interest and replace the vacancy sensibly and expeditiously.
Idiocy everywhere.
Scott Pruitt – the man most often suggested as a likely choice for this scenario – surely has no reputation left to lose.
I saw an interesting discussion around the DoJ rule that only Rosenstein has the authority to fire Mueller and it was pointed out that that rule is not a statute and therefor as the head of the Executive branch Trump could set that rule itself aside.
Since it’s obvious that Trump is assembling his war room to go against the DoJ I’m just hoping he doesn’t watch MSNBC to get this idea.
Dershowitz probably already put that bug in his ear.
It still feels like a dangerous time.
Hoping for the best, but also getting that picket sign ready.
“It still feels like a dangerous time.”
Word.
Trump’s best bet by far is still to brazen it out, deny, deny, deny, and rely on Fox News to fool the useful idiots. If he did that, instead of firing the Special Prosecutor, he could easily have a chance in 2020, especially if the Democrats take Congress in 2018.
At best Dems would have a 1 vote majority in the Senate, and a narrow House margin. And the people would demand “action” and Dems would no more be able to do anything in the face of GOP intransigence than they were under Obama.
We could even see Trump win under that scenario by running against the “Democrat extremist do-nothing Congress.” Basically, a repeat of 2014.
But, if he fires Mueller? He will have a very tough time avoiding impeachment. And as for winning in 2020? No chance.
All of these hypotheses ignore the 500 lb. gorilla that has been lurking in the corner of the Awful Office since ump was inaugurated.
What if he says:
He’s quite capable of it.
Then?
Only the Army would be able to stop him.
Would they?
Could they?
I dunno.
Stay tuned.
Whatever’s going to pop, it’s gonna jump off soon, I’m thinking.
Watch.
AG
P.S. I’ll tell you one thing…he’s no Nixon. Nixon was a backroom plotter and compromiser. Trump? He’ll go for the brass ring every time. No retreat, no surrender. Roy Cohn redux.
I have to agree that 45’s tweet this morning is both shocking (yes, amazingly, I was shocked by a new tweet) and scary.
Trump is threatening a bombing war, at least, and yes, he’s advocated – cough cough – “tactical” nukes.
THAT is what worries me the most, at this stage of the game.
Despite the alleged poll “ratings,” which I question, Trump is under siege. As dumb and narcissistic as he is, he gets that.
It would not be good if he tried to fire Mueller, but I’m way more concerned about his trigger finger, which is clearly getting very very itchy.
The idiot is a true menace to the world at large.
Good luck to us all.
He’s a physical coward. He will not do anything that might threaten his physical safety. Starting a nuclear war invites retaliation.
Betcha he’s got a bunker.
Betcha he thinks it’s failsafe, too.
Trump first.
All his life.
Trump first.
AG
Wall St is not happy. They are use to a process (the Treasury, FTC, SEC, DOJ, Sect of State) where they get to have an opinion/input on policy not waking up to tweets dictating immigration, trade, mergers, sales tax, and who he making plans to nuke. A market that goes down 600 one day, up 400 the next just to go down 200 the next is not sustainable.
Many parts of Wall Street make LOTS of money on volatility.
“the Republicans in Congress are going to flip out.”
No. Not until they’re told to flip out, by whoever has bought and paid for them. That’s probably part of the reason so many are retiring.
Hope to be proven wrong!
Interesting. I just read a tweet reporting that McConnell once again stated that no legislation protecting Mueller was necessary at this time. But, even if your reporting is correct, it’s hard to imagine the President not vetoing the bill and also the Senate getting enough votes to override any veto.
Still, if all this happens as you describe, a) it will take a lot of time to happen and b) by the time the process does happen (months from now), Mueller will have completed his core investigation and the Grand Jury brought their indictments.
And then the states, specifically NY, will bring any financial-related indictments Mueller hasn’t had a chance to complete. Trump = Toast pretty much anyway you look at it.
Seems to me the timing for Republican spine is a major variable. Today’s unnamed, ranting “we’re all fucked in November” GOP member also indicated that they will only be free to act once they have survived their GOP primaries, which will wrap up in the summer. If Trump pulls the trigger before then, we will probably still face stonewalling and inaction on their side.
Guides for Payroll
small business payroll software
payroll management
payroll solutions
Remember when it was Killery Clinton who would be starting a shooting war with Russia?
Those were the days.