The Democrats have launched a new initiative aimed at doing a better job of understanding where the public is on a variety of controversial issues so that they can do a better job of crafting their political messaging. It’s useful research because it reveals which topics have real salience and which ones don’t really “move the needle.” For one example, voters don’t really mind that Trump is using the presidency to add revenue to his various businesses and they’re not very receptive to the idea that he’s lazy, golfs too much and is too disengaged. On the other hand, they are alarmed that he doesn’t read his daily intelligence briefings. That’s the kind of nuance that can be gleaned by careful survey research.
One thing the pollsters have discovered is that the tax bill is unpopular, and the strongest argument against it is the idea that it was designed not based on sound policy or because it’s consistent with conservative ideology and goals, but simply to pay back the party’s biggest donors.
One key difference the research found is voters are more receptive to the argument that Republicans are likelier to use government to personally enrich themselves and their wealthy donors. “They actually don’t think the tax plan was done for policy reasons,” Pollock said. “They don’t even think it was done for ideological reasons. They think it was done for purely dirty campaign reasons.”
Since the public already believes this, messaging around it is comparatively easy. And since the polling took place while the nation was doing its taxes, the tax bill should have been enjoying a high point in popularity. People ought to have discovered some extra, perhaps unexpected, cash in their pockets. But the tax law has been losing support rapidly in recent weeks. A lot of congressional Republicans are blaming the president for going off message in March by talking about tariffs and trade wars rather then continuing to tout the supposed benefits of their only legislative accomplishment of the last year.
A sense of foreboding is growing on the right. Candidates up for reelection are realizing that their biggest success is polling underwater and is becoming something they’re more apt to need to defend than use as a rationale for another term in office.
It’s an old Karl Rove trick to attack your opponent’s greatest strength, and in this case the tax bill isn’t turning out to be a strength at all. The GOP is going to try to turn that around, but it won’t be easy with a distracted president and the Democrats’ hammering them for doing the bidding of their mega-donors.
As I understand it, the Trump bill provisions do not affect this years tax returns, due April 2018. (They are affecting paycheck deductions starting in Feb 2018). So benefits people get on their tax returns (if any) will not be felt until next year.
My taxes went up this year, and I was blaming Trump for it until someone pointed this out to me. Maybe other people are feeling the same way. (I am still worried what the republican bill will mean for my taxes next year, as a resident of a blue state. Several provisions seemed to be targeted to hurt us in particular.)
Billboards targeting the GOP tax scam are going up everywhere.
Here in Nashville, we have one for Bob and one for Lamar. I have called their offices in the past asking how much each got in tax cuts, and the staff pleads ignorance. So today I called and helpfully gave them the numbers and asked them to save the information for future calls. Then I made them recite the numbers for me. Then I said “have a nice day” but for some reason they didn’t exchange the pleasantry and just hung up on me. One kind of slammed down the phone.
The tax bill will affect people in different ways. So they should talk about the loss of salt deductions and the impact on charitable organizations and the investment tax and alternative min tax. I also saw a nice analysis of the impact on people in different tax groups on The Tax Foundation or Vox. The dems may want to borrow some of it, a little slanted but what the hell. In general it would be nice for the dems to start talking a bit. Like just now how effective was the attack on Syria, was it legal and what did we lose – aside from surprise. And then there is that watchmacallit, the Better Deal they rolled out.
ummmmm….what’s the problem? “Voters Think GOP Tax Bill Was Just For Donors “
It WAS just for donors. Voters aren’t stupid, just not paying attention. They payed attention to the words “tax cut” and found out that it only really benefitted the mega rich.
Funny how the respondents think it’s fine and dandy that DT is enriching himself, but it’s not okay that Congress is enriching themselves. Seems disconnected.
As long as they remain unhappy about the tax bill, I’m good with it. Perception is everything, I guess.
. . . districts at your link all still at least “lean R”. I.e., the revisions are from “solid R” to “likely R” or from “likely R” to “leans R”. None went to solid, likely, or leans D. So none involves a shift in predicted 2019 House composition by party.
Not to be a wet blanket or anything. Improvement’s improvement. Just trying to stay grounded in Reality.
Since the tax returns filed on Tuesday were for last year the tax “reforms” haven’t had any effect. Whether people are aware of that or not is an open question.
As I crunched the numbers for our 2017 tax return, I got madder and madder. Not because of the amounts we paid for 2017, but because of the deductions we will lose when we pay our 2018 taxes. My husband and I both pay city wage tax and state income tax, and I pay a tax in New Jersey because I work there. Add in property tax and charitable donations, and our itemized deductions were much, much more than the $24,000 standard deduction that I hear so much crowing about. If someone wanted to craft a tax bill that would punish urban professionals for not being Republicans or fans of the current occupant of the White House, they could hardly have done a better job. I don’t mind paying SALT taxes, because the need for those taxes is glaringly obvious to anyone who lives in my city or state. But I do mind getting a significant tax increase to pay for a tax reduction for donors and other billionaires.
And boy, howdy, did “someone” ever want to do exactly that. There’s no credible doubt imo that doing exactly that was a primary motivation of the Tax Deform Act of 2017 for more than just a few someones — essentially all of them with “(R- _____)” after their names — given that generally “urban professionals” = Dem-leaning constituencies in blue-leaning states.
The remarkable thing is how brazenly transparent they were about that motivation.
We need a good way to conceptualize what the Republicans did with the tax cut, and in a way that really gets to the heart of what they did.
How about: The Republicans just invited the richest 1,000 people in America to a party at Fort Knox, and as party favors everyone at the party was allowed to take as much gold as they could put in their car.
For me, that pretty well sums it up – except I am a little unsure on the actual number of attendees at that party.