Impeachment is a political act, which means politicians need to make it happen. In 1974, as Jimmy Breslin tells the tale in his entertaining and insightful Watergate book, How The Good Guys Finally Won, that politician was House Majority Leader Tip O’Neill.
“One day in June O’Neill walked onto the House floor armed with a new weapon. The first person he went to was Dan Rostenkowski.
‘Danny, old pal, did you see this poll yet?’
‘What poll?’ Rostenkowski grumbled. He despises polls, but he had to ask about a poll because he is in politics and he is supposed to ask about a poll.
‘It shows here that we could pick up as many as eighty seats the way it’s going now,’ O’Neill said.
‘Whew.’ —[snip]—
‘Here, look. Only 7% of the Democrats will vote for a Congressman who is against impeachment. That means a Republican could beat a Democrat in a city if the Republican is for impeachment and the Democrat is against it. Can you imagine that? Say, that’s right. You represent a city, don’t you, Danny?’
O’Neill began to show the poll around, He told Thaddeus Dulski, who comes from upstate Erie County in New York, that the poll showed all rural votes being lost to a Congressman who is against impeachment. ‘But you don’t have any farms in your district,’ he told Dulski. Dulski grumbled He had a religious belief in the Presidency. He also had a lot of farmers in his district. Out on the House floor, when O’Neill saw Angelo Roncallo, a Long Island Republican, he said, ‘Hey, Angie, old pal. Geez, but you really love it down here, don’t you? Angie, I want you to know something. My door is always open to you, as you know. And to show you how much I think of of you, Angie, my door is still going to be open to you next year when you’re not going to be in the Congress because of this impeachment. O’Neill gave a great, fun laugh, Roncallo laughed with him, but not as much.'” (pp. 143-44)
Donald Trump isn’t Richard Nixon; Steny Hoyer isn’t Tip O’Neill; 2018 isn’t 1974. Republicans, not Democrats, control the House today, and Donald Trump isn’t going to be impeached this year.
All that being said, polling hasn’t changed that much since 1974 and anyone who (looking at you, Mike Allen) who reads a poll showing Trump’s approval rating at a soft (only 27% “strongly approve”) 45% and his disapproval rating at a rock-solid (44% strongly disapprove) 53%, and concludes the main story is “Huge GOP Majority Backs Trump’s Putin Performance” doesn’t belong in politics, and certainly isn’t running for office.
Any president who’s losing more than 20% of his base is politically toxic to a member of Congress trying to win 51% of the vote in her/his district. That’s the political significance of this Axios/Survey Monkey poll; and it’s why every House Republican running for re-election with less than a 15 point victory margin in his last race is running scared.
P. S. Democrats today could use some more of the joie de vivre that O’Neill and his peers brought to politics. A little confidence and a sense of humor can go a long way…particularly when you’re up against bullying, mean SOBs.
Crossposted at: https:/masscommons.wordpress.com