Beto O’Rourke has certainly given people a lot to think about. Politico reports that some of the Democratic Party’s biggest donors and most experienced campaign professionals are essentially frozen, waiting to hear whether or not O’Rourke will run for president before making commitments to others aspiring candidates. There are a variety of metrics that help explain the Beto phenomenon.
For starters, he raised a dumbfounding $70 million for his Senate race in Texas, including an absurd $38 million in the third quarter alone. For donors, money chases money, and for campaign hands, they like to be well paid. If O’Rourke makes a run for the presidency, his tailpipe will be blasting out dollar bills.
Mikal Watts, a San Antonio-based lawyer and major Democratic money bundler, said several donors and political operatives in Iowa, after hearing from other potential candidates in recent days, have called to ask if O’Rourke is running, a sign of his impact in the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
“They’re not wanting to sign on to other presidential campaigns until they know whether Beto is going,” Watts said. “And if Beto is running, what good progressive Democrat wouldn’t want to work for Beto O’Rourke?”
He said, “I can tell you that there has not been this kind of level of electric excitement about a candidate since” Barack Obama ran in 2008.
O’Rourke’s charisma is easy to spot and hard to measure directly, but he is often compared to both Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, the only successful Democratic presidential candidates since 1976. The ease with which he raises money is one manifestation of this, but there’s also the more important indicator–votes.
As of November 19, O’Rourke’s tally in his midterm race is 4,024,777. In 2016, Hillary Clinton actually did pretty well (for a Democrat) in Texas, losing more narrowly (percentage-wise) with 3,877,868 votes than she did in Iowa, a state Barack Obama carried twice. Still, she only got 43.2 percent compared to Beto’s 48.3 percent, and he actually got more overall votes despite it being a significantly lower-turnout election.
And this had an impact. Though incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott was reelected with a healthy 56-43 percent advantage and the GOP once again swept every statewide office, the Democrats gained two seats in the state Senate, picked up twelve seats in the State House and knocked off two sitting U.S. congressman. Even the Republican victories were substantially diminished. Attorney General Ken Paxton’s margin dropped from 21 points to four, and Lieutenant Governor’s Dan Patrick’s 19-point spread was brought down to five.
It’s true that Senator Ted Cruz was a relatively weak opponent, but the Democrats ran well in many other races with O’Rourke leading the way with those four million votes. Clearly, O’Rourke’s money and natural appeal paid for and inspired a formidable political organization that had benefits for the party as a whole.
To see what a machine like this can produce over time, you can read an excellent Associated Press article on how Harry Reid built up a battering ram in Nevada beginning in 2004, and how that organization has turned Nevada into a blue state. Now, even in retirement and in faltering health, Reid’s machine keeps humming along. Next year, Nevada will have a Democratic governor for the first time in two decades, two Democratic U.S. senators, and a supermajority in the state Assembly. Pending a recount, it looks like they came up 24 votes shy of winning a supermajority in the State Senate, too.
The reason Harry Reid could accomplish this is that he was able raise a lot of money, and he used that money to pay for a permanent organization, not just one that is ramped up and down around important elections. One good argument against O’Rourke running for president is that he might be able to do more to turn Texas blue by running for Senate again in two years if he focuses on fleshing out what he has already built rather than diverting his attention to national politics.
On the other hand, if he can take his Texas model national, he might be able to replicate the kind of excitement we saw around Barack Obama.
There are a lot of names floating around and I won’t be surprised if the Democrats wind up needing to split their candidates up for their debates the way the Republicans did in 2015-16. Some of these aspirants have compelling rationales for their campaigns but, with the exception of Bernie Sanders, none of them have the fundraising ability or preexisting organization that O’Rourke brings to the table.
There’s certainly a risk that O’Rourke is getting too much hype. He might not be as competitive in Texas in a presidential race as he was in a Senate race against Ted Cruz. Yet, he could use the extra two years to expand in Texas to a point that brings him over the top. And can anyone else really say that have a better chance of flipping Texas and delivering a deathblow to the conservative movement?
I’m ready. Everyone else is an also-ran…put them in your Cabinet or leave them in the Senate candidate. Snag Harris as his running mate and we’re golden.
Let us pray.
But…the recent neocentrist major media support of Nancy Pelosi tells me that if O’Rourke did make a concerted effort to win the nomination, his non-personing/media assassination would immediately begin…on a serious level.
Could he survive that as a candidate?
I dunno.
Trump did.
Still is, unfortunately.
Maybe the public’s distrust of the media has reached such a peak…deservedly so…that the media assassination of non-centrists (left or right) simply will not work anymore.
Let us pray twice!!!
Later…
AG
I don’t suppose you could be bothered to notice it’s the right wing of the Democratic caucus (perhaps you’d call them the “neo”centrists if that word actually meant anything) trying to unseat Pelosi.
There’s also a definite national security flavor to it, as the main rump of incoming freshman dissenters are connected by service in either the military or the intelligence services, or both. They bonded during the campaign over a common listserv, and they ran in tough districts, for the most part, making the anti-Pelosi pledge strategic for them.
Some of them are surprisingly liberal or at least orthodox despite winning in very tough districts, but culturally they do share a common bond that is somewhat out of the norm.
Yes.
Certain military people are driven leftward in many respects because they see the real face of war and they also see the real face of what happens to sevicemen and servicewomen once they come home. Plus, they are often from working class families and have a clear picture of what has happened to them.
And…I also believe that many of them despise pols like Pelosi. The pols are the ones who talk the good talk in public but make the bad deals in private.
AG
I think that is basically accurate in this case, although I don’t agree that they’re correct in their assessment of where their focus should be right now. This is not the battle they were elected to fight, promises or not. And it’s not a battle that is going to help or move the ball forward.
Pelosi will smash them and they will deserve it for being stupid.
You write: Pelosi will smash them and they will deserve it for being stupid. Given (not just) recent history, I think that you are correct. Halfway correct. On second thought…probably more one quarter of the way correct. Yes. They will lose. This time. But it will not be”Pelosi” who does the smashing, it will be the bought-and-sold Centrist Government Media Complex that will do the heavy lifting. Pelosi? She could literally disappear from the face of the earth and within…oh, I don’t know, maybe three weeks…a similarly neocentrist Dem wold be set up in her place. And regarding the real… Read more »
The progressives backed Pelosi the the last man & woman. The “centrists” were the people trying to unseat her. As always, you don’t have the vaguest idea of what’s going on.
You write: As always, you don’t have the vaguest idea of what’s going on. I don’t? Lemme see… I was the sole voice here who predicted…before he even won the primary…that the “He’s a clown!!!” routine would fail to stop Trump’s rise to power. And yet y’all still think that you can laugh him offstage. Every other post that references Trump on this blog still continues to call him stupid names and so do the…so far totally unsuccessful…so-called “progressive” media. Meanwhile, his “Say whatever you want to say about me, but spell my name right!!!” tactic is still working like… Read more »
You’ve been trying to promote your advocacy as prophecy for years now. No Sale.
I “advocate” either:
1-A new Democratic Party
or
2-A new political party that is truly progressive. Anti-war, anti-corporate control of the government and pro-environment.
I would prefer #1, myself. Why? Because it would be quicker than #2 and we’re running out of time.
You and the rest of your little buddies here who repeatedly accuse me of being some kind of cloaked Trump supporter are either too stupid to be able to read and understand what I have been saying and/or tools of the neocentrist DNC leaders.
Probably both.
AG
Nobody cares why you promote right wing candidates and causes. Nobody cares why you campaigned for Trump against Clinton, or in this very thread a gang of right wing Dems with defense ties against Pelosi and the progressives.
Your rationalizations are incoherent but much more importantly- they’re irrelevant.
Your behavior speaks for itself. You oppose the people who are anti-war, anti-corporate control and pro-environment. You do so without exception. The rest is narcissistic wanking.
Gotta give you this, Marduk. You’re consistent. Consistently wrong. In the last presidential election a corporate-owned centrist ran as a liberal Democrat against a successful businessman/con man with fascist aims running as a conservative. She lost. Run the same game in 2020 with the same type of candidate and you will lose again. And even if you don’t…Trump may well be out of the running by then but Pence or some other, more “normal” Republican will be running the same racist/classist scam…any mainstream Dem candidate that the current DNC will allow to win the primary will just be another frontperson… Read more »
P.S. I wrote above: Until someone with real fire in the belly publicly points a finger at Trump, says “J’accuse!!!” and then proves it, ain’t nothing going to change except the fake news headlines. Who will that person be? Not Nancy Pelosi… Maybe O’Rourke? Mueller? Somebody!!! Please!!! HOT OFF THE PRESS!!! OCASIO-LOPEZ: I’m fine being called a bull in a china shop, because politics that answers to special interests more than the American people should be disrupted. Also, the idea that the same folks who bow to Trump are clutching their pearls is laughable. Good. That’s how they should feel.… Read more »
“Ocasio-Cortez,” of course.
Duh!!!
Gotta get more sleep…
AG
I don’t know what the “right” wing of the Democratic party is, marduk. Nor do I know where each and every person in that party stands in terms of “right” and “left.” These terms have been so beggared by misuse that they mean almost nothing anymore.
But…I do know what the “correct” wing of the Dem Party is. It’s the one that is trying to oust the old farts whose first loyalties belong to the DC swamp.
AG
. . . so beggar[ing terms] by misuse that they mean almost nothing anymore. (Cf. “censor”, “centrist”, “neo-centrist”, “DNC-loving”, “mistake”, . . . and on and on and on.) Meanwhile, you’re Humpty Dumpty: Alice considered a little. `I like birthday presents best,’ she said at last. `You don’t know what you’re talking about!’ cried Humpty Dumpty. `How many days are there in a year?’ `Three hundred and sixty-five,’ said Alice. `And how many birthdays have you?’ `One.’ `And if you take one from three hundred and sixty-five, what remains?’ `Three hundred and sixty-four, of course.’ Humpty Dumpty looked doubtful. `I’d… Read more »
There’s probably no ceiling to his options. But without winning Cruz’s seat he’s going to have to strategize wisely to get the attention nationally.
Yes, staying in TX to lead it into purple is a necessity. But thinking on the national level it might be an interesting strategy to get him to lead the DNC. His voice would break glass ceilings, his charisma and sense of justice would repair much from DWS and Donna Brazille.
And then, once we get a Dem administration again, he could take a spot that would position him well for 2028.
Is this a polite way of saying he should wait his turn? I recall the same being said about Barack Obama.
Not at all. But if you want to look at Obama, by the time he ran he had gained a seat in the Senate and given the great speech at the Nat’l Convention.
I’d look at it more that I’d want Beto to be as strong as he could be and to have name recognition that tied into fights he won while in a successful Dem admin.
Strong point.
Beto could certainly crush Sanders very quickly. The temptation would be strong, even though I favor a local emphasis. Democrats are finally building state-level organizations and that goes to hell if everyone and their mother are aiming for the Presidency.
No True Progressive would, could, can, ever vote for Beto in a primary in which Bernie is running.
In fact, I’m pretty sure Beto isn’t a progressive at all.
Have you ever heard him call for the ownership and direction by and of the workers of the commanding heights of the economy in manufacturing, transportation and finance?
I know I haven’t.
Nobody who has heard Beto speak would underestimate him. The double-digit loss by Lupe Valdez in the governors’ race probably is closer to the real 55%-45% split between Republicans, Democrats and Independents in Texas. Beto lost by 3% (220,000), while Valdez lost by over 1,000,000 votes. It’s an open question whether Texas is getting rapidly more blue, or whether Beto is simply a vastly better politician than Cruz. Still nobody should think that he could win Texas over Trump in a presidential race. Trump would probably win TX. But, he wouldn’t need to. He would be popular anywhere, including states… Read more »
“It’s true he’s never held federal office, but Trump never did either.”
Beto represents Texas’ 16th district in Congress.
I think Beto O’R is a sitting US Congressman, representing El Paso since 2013. So with greater seniority than Lincoln, haha.
Of course, the great thing about Repubs “electing” the imbecile Trump is that no one ever, ever, and I mean EVER has to listen to a “conservative” yap about a Dem candidate’s “qualifications” for (any) office.
I used to choose candidates based on positions but the depressing truth is that the candidate who’s more charismatic, and more comfortable in his or her own skin always seems to win. With that cynical outlook, I’ve listened to each potential candidate and the only ones who pass the test O’Rourke and to a much lesser degree Harris. I mean … go down the list and ask yourself if this person is significantly more comfortable in his or her own skin than Kerry, Gore, Hillary, Dukakis, Mondale, or Humphrey. Much as I love them, I think this rules out Swalwell,… Read more »
Sherrod Brown seems to qualify.
I agree that Sherrod Brown is absolutely comfortable in his own skin, and I hoped he would run in 2016.
As much as I love Sherrod Brown and trust him, he does not have the charismatic and inspiring effect that Beto does.
I thought of Sherrod Brown after I wrote that. He sounds comfortable and is fantastic on policy as far as I can see. He also sounds like he smokes 3 packs a day, but …
Another I thought of is Booker, who is reasonably self-assured – I really don’t like him though.
That a rotting cadaver like Canada Cruz was able to hold on to win shows that TX is a long way from losing its “conservative” mother-ship status. Always a bit deflating for a prez candidate to lose his/her home state–right, NY reject Trumper? And in Gore’s case, decisive. Presumably Beto makes up for it by shoring up the working class white vote in quasi-Blue states like PA, MI and WI. And perhaps gives Dems FL and AZ, placing Der Trumper’s second term bid into a hopeless death spiral. Of course, Sherrod Brown has the demonstrated ability to carry his [Red!]… Read more »
The problem with President Brown is that it loses a Senate seat, and right now taking the Senate is looking harder than the Presidency. Trump is fairly unpopular and likely to become more so, so odds favor us being able to beat him with any reasonable candidate. However, we are 3 seats down in the Senate, and likely to lose Alabama, so we will have to gain 4 of the 5 reasonably competitive R seats, which are Maine, Colorado, Michigan, North Carolina, and Iowa. Doable, sure, but somewhat difficult to beat that many incumbents, and certainly harder than beating Trump.… Read more »
It’s a bit disconcerting that the 2020 elections have started even before this newly elected Congress is seated! In my birth country India, national elections are restricted to a much shorter time before the day people vote. In most democracies the cycle is much shorter. IF Beto becomes a serious candidate, this will give the right wing noise machine a much longer period to drumbeat his popularity down. EVEN IF there are no negatives in his background, with the help of Faux Noise they will manufacture something. And repeat it endlessly. I am hoping Beto says NO right now, and… Read more »
Beto’s going to run for the nomination, simply because he doesn’t have much else to do in 2020 *, and as Obama’s advisors said, you have to strike when it’s your time. It’s not a hit on future political prospects to fail at getting a Presidential nomination, as long as you do OK, so he doesn’t risk much. If anything a strong but unsuccessful presidential nomination run will boost his chances of winning the TX governorship in 2022. He will play coy, of course, because that is part of the game, but he will be in by summer. Beto did… Read more »
No question O’Rourke is an exciting candidate, not just for his progressive ideals, but more importantly, his ability to communicate sincerity through his passion and articulation of them. I believe his real value is in uniting voters across party lines on basic issues, like health care, taxes, the economy, environment, that we’ve seen some Trump voters share common ground with democrats on. The sad fact is our politics has become a popularity contest, of sorts. You can’t win on “good” policy alone. To win, you have to sell, and to do that successfully, you need to be appealing. In 2016… Read more »
I’m completely with you on Beto and Sherrod Brown being first tier and the others thinking maybe this is their shot.
I love me some Joe Biden, but his time is over. We need someone younger — Beto did more in one day than most of us could do in a week or a month.
Do you think a woman candidate would not have a chance in 2020? In a study I came across some time ago (cannot find the reference now), it seems that once a glass ceiling was broken, it took quite a long time to get equity for that pool of people – not necessarily in politics, but business also. Even though we have not had a female president, as opposed to many other democracies that have a head (Israel, India, Germany, UK, among the larger ones), I feel that after Obama’s presidency, it will take a long time for minorities to… Read more »
I was blown away when Obama was elected, because I thought at the time, with good reason, that there was no way “America” would elect anything other than a white man as President, let alone the worst thing you can be in America, a black man. But people were just that desperate for change in a real sense. They were tired of the same old, same old, not just because of some shallow need for something new and different, but because, as I would test friends: when was the last time legislation was passed by either party, that was for… Read more »
I am in complete agreement with you about the election of Obama and now might be the time for Beto. But what do you see in Sherrod Brown, that is not there in the other women potentials? I have not followed him much, but I wonder if he has the charisma? Beto seems to have both Obama’s natural gift for exciting people, and Bernie’s capability to bring young people into the fold. Biden – while he seems authentic in what he believes and how he says it, perhaps a bit too old for leadership, when in the House people are… Read more »
First of all, Brown won as a democrat in a red Ohio, which tells me he has the ability to be seen not just as a “liberal,” how they see us all, but as someone who is “one of them.” Thus far Harris, Gillibrand or Harris have not demonstrated that “cross over” ability. Secondly, Brown is willing to speak plainly in a way many in the party, with an eye always towards the big donors, will not. And this is why some democrats defense of progressive ideals tend to come off less genuine, stilted at times, and lacking in compassion.… Read more »
OK – you make a very cogent case for Brown.
I have not seen much of him on TV here in Southern California. The only thing I remember is him and his wife and family on election night when he won.
I hope he builds more of a national profile leading up to the next presidential election.