Since I advocate for President Trump’s impeachment nearly every day, it might surprise you to learn that I don’t approve of Rep. Brad Sherman of California’s decision to introduce articles of impeachment on the same day that the new Congress is sworn in. There are a variety of reasons for my misgivings.
Most importantly, incoming Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has already declared that any possible formal impeachment inquiry will follow rather than precede a report from the Office of Special Counsel that is investigating Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. By ignoring the guidance of leadership, Sherman is acting in an insubordinate manner.
There are times when I applaud insubordination, but there must be a good reason. By introducing this measure on the first day of the new Congress, Rep. Sherman is preempting the leadership rather than responding to any perceived mistakes or missteps.
Another factor is that Rep. Sherman doesn’t have any special jurisdiction in this matter. He serves on the Foreign Affairs and Financial Services committees, not on Judiciary, Oversight, or Intelligence, which are the primary committees that have been and will continue to investigate Trump’s crimes and ethical violations. Sherman can’t argue that he’s seen evidence not available to his colleagues or that he has any special insight that they lack.
Finally, you can gain some insight into my concerns by reading the new impeachment piece former White House Counsel Bob Bauer published on Thursday. Most people will focus on Bauer’s enthusiasm for removing Trump from office as soon as possible, but if you read him carefully you will see that he actually wants a slow, methodical process that focuses first on defining the proper purpose and uses of the impeachment process.
The context for the following is that Bauer recognizes that a recent Quinnipiac poll showed 60 percent of the public currently opposes opening an impeachment inquiry.
So it is natural to ask how an impeachment process ever gets off the ground with sufficiently wide public acceptance.
The answer lies in how the House goes about the business of inquiry—whether it proceeds methodically and transparently, with apparent care and seriousness of purpose. It can begin with consideration of the structure of the process and the elaboration and discussion of standards. The Watergate experience supplies guidance. The House Judiciary Committee staff then put out a document explicating the scope of “high Crimes and Misdemeanors,” a text that is consulted to this day. In addition, the Committee elicited the assistance of notable historians in mapping the American experience with impeachment. The Committee today can follow its predecessors in these and other ways to lay a foundation for substantive inquiry. It can do much of the preliminary work behind closed doors, limiting if not extinguishing the opportunities for political grandstanding, and then release procedural and other documents for public discussion and debate before proceeding to call witnesses and gather testimony.
All of these steps serve to build gradual public trust in and understanding of the process and should help counter the shrill complaints of the president on Twitter and his most dedicated supporters. It also assures that a responsibly crafted process is in place to respond to further, even likely, developments as a result of the Mueller investigation, congressional investigations, and ongoing litigation over the president’s continuing private business interests. Of central importance is the credibility of the process, and it would be significantly enhanced if it is directed to fundamental features of this demagogic presidency, rather than apparently hurried into service by one or the other eruptions in the 24-hour, breaking news cycle.
Rep. Sherman is acting precipitously, before any of the groundwork has been laid. And he’s creating a very distorted decision for his colleagues when he asks them to vote for or against an impeachment inquiry. A vote against will be perceived in some senses as a statement that the president’s current record of malfeasance doesn’t merit removal from office, but a vote for will show a lack of confidence in the leadership and an endorsement of a strategy that hasn’t been thought through. That’s not a very kind choice to put before your colleagues.
As for Bob Bauer’s argument, I definitely endorse most of it but I think he spends too little time thinking about what happens if there is an impeachment that is not followed by a conviction. I think he also discounts how opening an inquiry will lead almost inevitably to actual impeachment in the same sense that authorizing a Special Counsel or Special Prosecutor will inevitably lead to some criminal charges.
To successfully remove the president from office, the most important jurors must be constantly kept in mind. The American people will respond to the evidence once it is laid out, but they will also filter that information though their perception of the fairness and judiciousness of the process. The Republican senators want Trump gone as much or more than any other constituency in the country, but they need a case that is as solid as possible, and if it looks like the Democrats prejudged or led a rush to justice, that will give them far less cover to act.
All of this argues for showing some patience. Rather than moving immediately to start impeachment proceedings, the Democrats should do more traditional oversight and continue the preexisting congressional investigations into the 2016 elections. They shouldn’t be idle while waiting for Mueller to deliver, but they shouldn’t take official steps toward impeachment either.
Done correctly, there won’t be more than a handful of Trump supporters left by the time the Senate is asked to render their verdict.
This is the kind of stupid shit people do that drives me nuts. The media will latch onto this instantly, and the narrative will be set. And it will take a Herculean effort to change it, if it can be changed at all.
Hopefully, the leadership can get Sherman in a room and explain to him how this shit needs to go down.
This is really the method which will most greatly maximize the chances of success. We really don’t need guys like Sherman getting out over their skis so quickly.
Is it possible that this is a good thing, strategically, because when Pelosi et al answer with, “We’re waiting for the Mueller report,” it establishes that she’s not rushing into anything, unlike that other hothead?
This dynamic works for Republicans all the time, doesn’t it? “Kill them all!” says a wild-eyed backbencher. “No, no, only kill some of them,” scolds the pragmatic, mature Republican establishmentarian, to the accolades of the corporate press.
yep.
My feeling is that this particular story will die very quickly. But it does have the strong whiff of a political stunt to me. Despite having served in congress for 20+ years, Sherman is virtually unknown on the national scale. He’s also in an extremely safe (D+18) district.
You write:
I continue to find it absolutely astonishing that..after the 2016 fiasco…anyone believes anything that the major pollsters say, especially regarding Trump-related matters.
I also do not believe that the Dems are serious about impeaching Trump. They just want to keep him tied up until 2020, believing that he will either not run, not succeed in being nominated or lose in a total Dem landslide.
Why?
Justifiable fear of insurrection, that’s why. That plus a recalcitrant Senate.
Sure, they need to mouth the right anti-Trump boilerplate to keep their base pacified. But actually move on him!!!??? But Pelosi? Schumer? The don’t-rock-the-boat career backstabbers?
I’ll believe it when I see it.
AG
. . . “astonishing” (“absolutely” or otherwise) that you continue to flaunt your profound ignorance of how scientific polling works — with evident perverse pride in that ignorance! — despite repeated, patient, good-faith attempts to help you cure that ignorance ( = why the comment above merits the “Mega troll” rating I assigned it — the facts that comprise Reality simply do not matter to you when — as often happens! — they conflict with something ignorantly idiotic that you’ve nevertheless convinced yourself to “believe” in the face of any and all contrary evidence):
“Scientific polling!!!???”
Give me a break!!!
Like went down in the months rolling up to Trump’s “Oh!!! We are so surprised!!!” win in 2016?
You do not have a clue!!!
Sad shit, as usual.
Go take a poll.
AG
Every time I’m shocked that there are people who revel in ignorance. Demand it. I’m jaded about a lot of things. AG never ceases to amaze.
. . . substantive rebuttal of the factual information provided at those links confirms to near certainty that you didn’t click or read them — which would have provided you an opportunity to learn something that could have partially corrected your defiant ignorance! — just as you didn’t the first time I provided you that opportunity in those replies.
I.e., your defiant ignorance is chosen, willful, self-imposed. AKA stupid.
Ignorance so foundational that it begins with the fact that you don’t even understand what it means when you refer to what “the major pollsters say”. You lack even the rankest beginner’s understanding of the meaning of what “major pollsters say”.
The cure for that ignorance remains available at those links (lots of other places, too!), though I harbor no delusions that you’ll avail yourself of it this time, either.
“Facts” from repeatedly failed “factual” reporters or predictors…be they hustlers, merely incompetent or both…are not “facts.” They are false news, and not to be trusted.
Ditto for those that claim to believe those “facts’ in the face of massive evidence to the contrary.
WTFU.
AG
Arthur, I don’t usually use troll ratings for anyone, including you. But you’ve earned those ratings on this thread. You’re being disagreeable and antagonistic from the start. You’re simply not attempting to persuade. You’re here to berate community members.
You gained a Mega Troll rating for claiming that Dems don’t want to move impeachment proceedings for “Justified fear of insurrection.” You have shared your fantasies of white supremacists and Dominionists slaughtering Americans at outcome-altering rates over and over. Laying out these threats as you are is hateful, disgusting and pathetic. Please stop doing this.
You earned a Troll rating for this last statement by failing to deal with the fact that the poll aggregate for the 2018 midterms were very accurate. Democratic Party candidates performed on the high end of the range expected for them for months. Even the aggregates of the 2016 polls were within the margin of error, which is why the most accurate poll aggregators had Trump with a 30%+ chance of winning on 2016 Election Day.
Of all of the arrogantly stupid comments that have been made supporting the failure of the Democratic Party to prevent a preening, vicious narcissist from becoming president of the United States…in a position to roll back environmental measures, his hand on the nuke button, and with the avowed mission of tanking the U.S. government in favor of king-like rule…the following takes the blue ribbon as far as I am concerned:
Unbelievable.
“…on the high end of the range expected for them…”
“Expected of them?” By whom, exactly?
Did you not even think of asking yourself that simple question?
I’ll answer it for you.
By people like you…tranced-out believers in the governmental media complex…and the people who run that mass media, trance-producing mechanism, that’s who.
First of all, since Trump did win and the polls only gave him a 30% chance of winning, then that means that the polls were 70% wrong. And since it is almost impossible for there be a functioning tie in this political system, that essentially means that those same polls essentially gave HRC a 70% chance of winning.
Now there’s a set of mainstream pollsters on the conclusions of which I would gladly place my bets.
Not.
I wonder if there were any Hillary-labeled “deplorable” types running and directing those polls. You know…working class, non-urban, non-college graduate people.
Not a chance.
Ludicrous on the face of it.
The polling system is as broken as is the media system.
Entitlement Media Inc., wholly owned by Manufacturing Consent L.L.C.
Wake the fuck up.
AG
P.S. From you people, troll ratings are a badge of honor!!!
Thank you.
. . . ignorant (not the same thing!) — and also too, completely wrong, obviously — that the capability of language to adequately describe how stupid AND ignorant it is does not exist:
“Math is hard” Barbie has opinions about numbers and stuff.
‘Splain it to me then, O wise one.
In terms my feeble mind might be able to understand.
Thanks in advance…
AG
. . . at length, in detail, in those links you refused to click and read and learn and profit from (along with others I couldn’t be bothered to google up, since you always make the choice to ignore factual rebuttal and go on repeating your lies and wallowing in your ignorance instead).
So of course, you gotta start with the explanation that’s already been placed in front of you.
Because I’m feeling unusually magnanimous for some unknown reason, I’ll even make this offer: you make a sincere effort to read carefully and try to understand the content of those links I already provided; and, if there’s something in them that’s unclear or needs further explanation, you provide a coherent description of what that is or ask reasonable questions about what’s already been explained; and I will make a sincere effort to explain it further or in different terms to make it more understandable and answer any such questions.
This would of course require suspension of your standard confirmation bias (e.g., in this case, your repeatedly stated belief that all polls are automatically unreliable and worthless), which is something I frankly don’t have much confidence you’re even capable of doing. But if you will declare that you’re willing to do so to the best of your ability, the offer stands.
I trust you’re not holding your breath.
He also didn’t deal with the Democrats performing on the high end of the polls in 2018. Just blew right past that. Remember all the smack he was talking about Pelosi throughout 2018 and how she was undermining the caucus’ ability to retake the House? So much for his prognostications.
He wants the Ron Paul agenda in full; that’s why he’s been supporting Trump, McConnell and Ryan; they were carrying the Paul agenda pretty well. That’s why he’ll continue to lie by claiming the Democratic Party should move left. That doesn’t reflect his policy preferences at all. He’s a liar.
P.S. Your “megatroll” ratings are totally useless, except perhaps for your own masturbatory pleasure, of course.
Succeed in censoring me here and I will simply repost as a standalone.
Mostly you do not succeed because your betters rate against your troll ratings.
Go pick your nits elsewhere.
AG
Since that bill of impeachment isn’t going anywhere in the House it means very little. Dem leaders will say “we need to carefully investigate” everything. Then they hold hearings for months.
THEN if Trump blocks the Mueller report, while reports of its contents leak serially, THEN we are in position to impeach. But, believing that GOP Senators will ever actually vote to convict Trump is grabbing Fool’s Gold.
Every Republican outside of Mitt Romney will kiss Trump’s ring, and Romney is such a coward he’ll hold his fingers in the air three times before he makes a move. We saw that this week when (in order to counter the impression that he’s just part of the “deep state conspiracy” against Trump) he offered his support for the Wall. Idiot.
I don’t believe for one minute any of them are going to have a Profiles in Courage moment when they turn on Trump. And as long as Fox News exists, the base never will turn on Trump. Right now we are locked into a 53.4% disapprove, 41.4% approve mode. The entire insane Trump Christmas Shutdown and Trump bragging publicly that he will gladly own it, has actually cost him about maybe 2-3% max. And most of that will slowly swing back behind Trump as soon as the shutdown ends.
That is enough of a gap that if the Democrats nominate someone who is at least 50%-50% in terms of popularity they will win a narrow electoral victory. But, it also means that barring the unforeseen, such as an economic meltdown, Trump will be quite safe in red states through 20-20.
And there are not 20 GOP senators in Blue-Purple states who dare turn on Trump. In fact those Senators – like Corey Gardner (R-Colo) voted with Trump 97% of the time, in a state that Hillary won by 5%. So, there was no correlation between how popular Trump is in CO and how Sen. Gardner voted. That’s because CO Republicans are just as insane as the rest of their base. They love Trump some 90% so it doesn’t pay to go against him if you are a GOP Senator.
If Fox News didn’t exist, then the GOP Senate would have voted to remove him already, based on how dangerous they know he is. But, it does and will continue to support Trump all the way down.
. . . to end shutdown without funding Wall, per The Hill.
BTW, super Trump toady and sycophant Lindsey Graham said earlier that if Trump caves on the wall his presidency is over. And he’s probably right because in that event his standing with the base will plummet.
Morons on yahoo are trumpeting (no pun intended) that “Democrats caused the shutdown” while the shutdown began at a time when (R)’s controlled ALL branches of the federal government and both houses of Congress.
Pelosi needs to work at her own pace. If she’s successful, and I expect her to be, every success will ratchet up Democratic leverage over Republicans in both houses.
i.e. off the table like last time?
That angered me as well, but I believe with both impeachment and Obamacare she was following Obama’s direction.
I just finished Michelle’s book and it provides insight into his personality and character that makes sense out of mystery regarding most of what he did in office.
Sherman is grandstanding.
Watch, he is planning to screw his constituents somehow and is trying to inoculate himself.
“Sherman is grandstanding.”
My take as well. Needs a trip to the woodshed imho.
Sherman doesn’t seem to have a good reason for doing this now as opposed to waiting for Mueller’s report to drop, so I wonder: is this a principled stance, an undisciplined person going off half cocked, or worse, is he acting as a Trojan horse for the GOP by putting this out there and setting up the dems early?