I have been engaged in other projects recently and have not kept quite up to speed with the latest Brexit happenings and so perhaps you guys can help me out: Has anything of any real significance happened recently? The main points I have gleaned for a cursory perusal of news sites are that:
1. The EU has lost patience with UK
Donald Tusk wasn’t having a senior moment. His wondering “what that special place in hell looks like, for those who promoted Brexit, without even a sketch of a plan how to carry it out safely” wasn’t a temperamental outburst. It signaled the EU had reached the end of the road in its attempts to accommodate UK demands.
2. Theresa May is running down the clock
Having been rebuffed by the House of Commons, the EU, the Irish government, the DUP and her own hard liners, Theresa May has decided the only way forward is to run down the clock and see if the imminence of a hard no deal Brexit will concentrate minds and force acceptance of her deal as the only alternative available.
3. Jeremy Corbyn has decided to get in on the game
Smarting from poor opinion poll ratings and unease among his own supporters, Corbyn has decided to engage with Theresa May so that he can say “well at least we tried” if the whole thing ends up being an almighty clusterfuck. For Theresa May talks with Labour can help run down the clock and light a fire under hard core Brexiteers and the DUP that she might, just, go down another road entirely if they don’t come on board with her deal.
4. But what, precisely, is the substantive difference between Corbyn and May?
May has signaled a willingness to address Labour demands for increased worker and environmental protections, and for help for deprived ares. The one area of difference is Labour’s demand for ongoing membership of “A” customs Union with the EU. Labour seems to think that the EU will agree to providing the benefits of a customs union while acceding to the UK “having a say” in future trade deals. But how is this different from the status quo? I am not aware of the UK having objected to any trade deals in the past, and all EU trade deals beyond the EU’s current negotiating mandate require unanimous agreement of its members…
More to the point, the whole row over “the Backstop” is about the possibility of the UK “being trapped” in a customs union indefinitely, when this is precisely what Labour seems to want. If May could agree with Corbyn on this and present a jointly agreed proposal on these lines to the EU, the EU might have little cause to object – especially when Corbyn’s support would guarantee a Commons majority for the resultant agreement.
Corbyn – always seen as a genuine if closet Brexiteer – would achieve his objective of a softer Brexit, protect some jobs in the short term, and be seen as the saviour of the UK for preventing a no deal Brexit. May will have delivered on her “mandate”. The EU will have achieved “frictionless” trade with the UK, a solution to the vexed Irish border question, and still managed to carve off a huge slice of London’s financial services industry for its ongoing members.
The 48% who voted against Brexit may be less than happy at such an outcome, but no one seems to regard them as a threat to the future stability of the UK – unlike hard core Brexiteers who might precipitate civil unrest if they don’t get their way. I wonder…
They say turkeys don’t vote for Christmas, but it seems the UK will have voted for the Turkey option even as Brexiteers hyped the risk of Turkey joining the EU in their anti-EU propaganda…
Am I missing something here?
Can the EU accede to indefinite frictionless trade under Corbyn’s kind-of-proposal? I don’t think they can. Norway is in a customs union and still has border checks. For the short term, at least, border checks will be the biggest issue, more so than any potential tariffs. Norway also has to pay the equivalent to membership fees. The EU very generously broke both rules in the deal with May, presumably under the expectation that the situation would be temporary.
I think Corbyn is really playing with fire by whipping against a second referendum and against the proposal to extend Article 50. At this point if a No Deal ensues he will bear a substantial part of the blame. If No Deal is bad enough, and I think it will be, the Liberals might well supplant Labour as the main rival to the Tories. They would have a huge opportunity if they became the party of Rejoin, offering to fix the Brexit disaster to Remainers in both parties.
Norway is in the Single Market, not the Customs Union. (I Know its complicated!). Which explains why border controls are still required between Norway and the EU. Turkey has an external arrangement with the Customs Union but is not in the Single Market.
The big question for me is who is going to represent the 48% Remain voters – now more like 55% – in the future. They don’t seem to have a major home to go to and may end up disengaging from politics – and perhaps economics – altogether.
Basically the UK polity is split down the middle, and the damage may well be irreparable.
I know Norway is in the Single Market, not a “Customs Union” – but the Single Market includes being in a customs union. The UK under Corbyn’s sort-of-proposal would indeed be even less connected to the EU than Norway is now, yet would need frictionless trade (that Norway doesn’t get) because the UK is hopelessly unprepared to handle customs inspections. I was just trying to finesse the complications by saying they were the same.
Yes, Remainers seem to have no home in either Tory or Labour parties, but the Liberals are not far off being a major party and they have gone hard-line Remain. If you take the 2010 result of 32%/35%/22% and shift 10% each from Tories and Labour to the Liberals the vote is 22%/25%/42% and a thumping Liberal majority. That is less than 1/3 of the voters for each of the current majors and, I think, is very possible with a (likely) rough No Deal Brexit.
I know the Liberals are well back from their 2010 results because of being the Tories’ lap dogs from 2010-15, but the harm from that is very small potatoes compared to the harm of even a Norway-style Brexit, never mind the catastrophe of No Deal. I think Clegg’s misdeeds will be forgiven and forgotten in a hurry if Labour makes a hash out of Brexit.
Legally the Customs Union and Single Market are quite distinct entities but I doubt even the UK government has quite grasped the distinctions yet.
It has long been my view that a no-deal Brexit could overturn the long term Tory/Labour duopoly of power with the Lib Dems replacing the Tories. The UK’s archaic first oast the post single seat constituency systems will permit no other outcome but a two party system with some regional add ons.
Remarkably, so far, there has been no sign of it happening.