So 7 Labour MPs chose to resign the party whip and set up an independent group citing dissatisfaction with Corbyn’s leadership and claiming endemic anti-Semitism within the party. Hardly the most pressing issue exercising the minds of the populace just now. Perhaps it was the only issue they could find to unite around.
Then they were joined by an eighth Labour MP and three Tories. Hardly a rush to the centre.
But enough to worry Corbyn and May, and soon, perhaps, enough to ensure that the DUP and ERG aren’t the only game in town. The problem is that it is not clear they have a unified and coherent plan for dealing with Brexit. Do they all support a second referendum? Will some support May’s deal if the alternative is no deal? Will their whole raison d’etre be undermined if Corbyn ends up supporting a delay and then a second referendum?
So far they aren’t a game changer, but if their numbers grew to perhaps 20 – roughly equally from both Labour and Tory camps – they could come to represent a new balance of power with which either May or Corbyn would have to treat with if they wanted to have any hope of achieving a parliamentary majority.
But how coherent a group are they? What are their policies and objectives? Say what you like about the DUP, but all their 10 MPs march in lock step. It seems appropriate that they have formed themselves, initially at least, as a limited company rather than a party. They seem more of a business lobby than a traditional political party, and much of their funding probably comes from businesses terrified at the prospect of a no deal Brexit. But in the age of Russian election interference and Zionist influence peddling, the funding opaqueness represented by private equity ownership doesn’t present a good look.
So they probably have a few weeks to consolidate their numbers, form a party, formulate some policies and elect a few spokes people if not an outright leader. Otherwise they may well slide into incoherence and irrelevance.
One issue parties rarely do well in the longer term, but if their issue is a second referendum to give voice to the 48% who voted Remain and the majority who would probably support Remain in preference to May’s deal or no deal now, then they have a shelf life at least until that referendum is held. After that they would probably have to join up with the Liberal Democrats to survive.
There has been some commentary that they don’t include any national figures comparable to the “gang of four” (Roy Jenkins, David Owen, Shirley Williams and Bill Rodgers) who formed the breakaway Social Democrats who later combined with the Liberals to form the Liberal Democrats. This may effect their prospects in the longer term, but right now its a number’s game. If they can attract a few more MPs they could supplant the DUP as the swing vote in the House of Commons.
So far Theresa May seems barely to have noticed – determined to plow her own furrow of seeking legal guarantees around the Irish backstop. But it seems unlikely that any deal she can negotiate with the EU will mollify the DUP, in which case the Independent Group votes could come into play.
Equally likely however, is that they will join the flotsam and jetsam of history, the litany of breakaway groups that ended up going nowhere, destroyed by their own incoherence and the first past the post single seat constituency parliamentary electoral system which permits of only two major national parties. The centre may not hold, and even if it does, it may simply move elsewhere.
The question is whether Theresa May is following her present course out of conviction or merely to mollify her hard liners. It seems to me it is both: she seems genuinely committed to delivering her version of Brexit and opposed to a second referendum on principle. In which case she may prefer a no deal Brexit and running down the clock to dealing with the Independent group in order to achieve a parliamentary majority for a softer Brexit.
If May succeeds, the Independent Group could end up being the shortest living political movement in recent history. Alternatively they could be the vital missing piece in putting together a coalition with the numbers to pursue an alternative course of action. But Corbyn is yet another missing piece in this jig-saw. Just precisely what will he do if a no deal Brexit beckons?
One way or the other, it may well be that only the people can decide. Are there sufficient further MPs prepared to force an election or a second referendum by supporting a vote of no confidence in the Government?
Please define “endemic anti-antisemitism” and “Zionist influence peddling”.
You’ll have to ask the original gang of 7 what they mean by “endemic anti-Semitism” as it is they who chose to make it their signature issue. As Corbyn is a lifelong supporter of Palestinian issues – and Palestinians are also a Semitic people – I suspect they are confusing anti-Semitism with anti-Zionism.
I’ll conclude from the first part of your response that you haven’t noticed what you actually wrote (“anti-antisemitism”).
Absolutely nobody uses the term “antisemitism” to refer to Arabs, so your note about Palestinians being a Semitic people is a distraction.
And I’m still waiting for your definition of “Zionist influence peddling”.
Yea – the Palestinians are a non people as far as many Zionists are concerned…
Historic legacy of Zionism …
○ Jacob Israël de Haan
○ The first political murder in Jewish Palestine: Lessons of intolerance
○ AIPAC, AJC issue rare rebuke of Netanyahu for drawing in extremists | JPost |
Nothing to see here, JDW leading the blind …
○ Brexit Debacle: Labour Party to Split Today
Likud and Netanyahu hand-in-hand with rightwing extremists across the globe, setting their agenda for “survival” … creating instead their downfall.
Anna Soubry counts as a national figure, I think. Otherwise, yes, not a lot of firepower here.
This whole thing is being run on standard EU timing – nothing gets done until right before the deadline. That would predict the deadline may get slipped, because that’s another standard of EU timing.
May’s plan all along has been to get a deal where the catastrophe is spread out and survivable and can be overlooked with some help from the Tory media, and then get it through as a “compromise” deal that Remainers will tolerate as “not the worst possible Brexit” and Brexiteers will tolerate as “some kind of Brexit”. Her hope now is that at some point Parliament will actually have to vote on what happens, and that there will be a potential majority to stop Brexit if the only way out is No Deal, and the Brexiteers will switch to support her if otherwise they get nothing but black eyes.
Based on that I’m thinking revocation of Article 50 is looking most likely, because I don’t think you’ll get a majority in Parliament willing to vote for No Deal, knowing it will probably end their own careers if it actually happens. I don’t think May will win either because she needs the Brexiteers to be more flexible than the Tory loyalists supporting her bad deal, and what’s the chance with those nutcases? Her only chance is that a lot of them have speculated counting on Britain being ruined by Brexit, and the Brexiteers need some kind of Brexit or they will be ruined themselves when Britain does OK by remaining.
I read what The Guardian had to say about the Labour MPs who defected, and was forcefully reminded of what I remember from the year I lived in England: there’s no attempt to separate news and opinion in British newspapers (with the possible exception of The Independent). The Guardian savaged the Labour defectors. There was one piece written by the head of the Labour Party that characterized the defectors as right-wing hacks, for example. The thing is, some of us remember that Jeremy Corbyn was not chosen as the leader of Labour in the House of Commons by his peers but rather by Labour Party activists, who are unlikely to be a representative cross section of Labour Party voters.
I can’t say whether Jew-baiting is “the most pressing issue exercising the minds of the [British] populace just now”, but it’s well known that anti-Jewish sentiment has been on the rise in the UK as well as the rest of Europe. There have been surveys showing around 25-30% of Europeans believing traditional anti-Jewish tropes about Jews having too much power in finance and the media, for example. If that’s not troubling for you, replace “Jewish” with “Irish” and tell me how you would feel about that.
I am fortunate that in Ireland there is no perceptible anti-Jewish sentiment although that may be, in part, because they are a relatively small part of the population. So far, touch wood, anti-foreigner, anti-immigrant, anti-other feeling is noticeably absent despite 14% of the population having been born outside Ireland (a higher proportion than the UK and most of Europe) and Ireland becoming much more diverse and cosmopolitan as a result.
I can’t really comment on anti-Jewish sentiment in the rest of Europe as I have no direct experience of it. I do know there are quite xenophobic attitudes towards refugees and outsiders in general in a lot of Eastern Europe. The paradox being that those countries with the lowest proportion of non native born residents are also the most anti-immigrant. The other paradox being that millions of eastern Europeans have emigrated to western Europe (including Ireland) to better their economic prospects.
Generally left wing politicians, like Corbyn, are very positively disposed to protecting the human rights of minorities and immigrants, but even he has had to acknowledge the anti-immigrant element of the Brexit vote. I’m not aware of anti-Jewish sentiment being a significant component of that. It appears to be more directed against Muslims and Eastern Europeans.
But what really annoys left-wingers in general is the attempt by right wingers to conflate anti-Zionism with anti-Semitism, and particularly to portray all opposition to Netanyahu’s policies as tantamount or equivalent to anti-Semitism. As you are probably aware this is a constant theme of much right wing media coverage regardless of who owns the media in question.
As you are also doubtless aware, some of the most virulent opposition to Netanyahu and his settlement policies comes from within Israel itself and leftwingers have tended to align with those groups. There is currently a minor controversy in Ireland because some celebrities and politicians have put forward a bill to ban the importation of goods made in illegally occupied territories – drawing the the virulent condemnation of Zionists but very little interest or attention in mainstream political circles.
For people’s democracy called for in a referendum …
I don’t get this “taking no deal off the table reduces our negotiating leverage” crap. From an EU point of view a no deal Brexit is looking increasingly preferable to dealing with May/ERG/DUP.
And the UK better believe No deal Means No Deal. The EU won’t be rushing to cuts deals after a no deal Brexit either, except where they are very clearly in the EU’s own self interest. MEGA – Make Europe Great again!
A ‘4’ for yr post!
A ‘4’ for yr post!
Some things that have changed: The Gang of 11, if I recall is now 12. Depending on news source, could be at least a good number of Labour MPs tempted to split. Not sure about Tories.
Corbyn is now throwing his weight behind a second referendum. I don’t know UK parliamentary politics well enough to know how much this changes the calculus of a second referendum actually materializing. I follow the YouGov tracking poll and the impression I get is pretty much like yours: Remain is ahead of Leave by near double digits, and both Labour and the Tories are continuing to decline in popularity. Then again, the Tory leadership is consistently made itself into the party of Brexit, and Labour, until recently, has waffled.
Frank, I know this is your beat much more so than mine, and your analysis as the UK gets down to the proverbial wire would be quite timely. Personally, I am still putting my money on a no-deal Brexit happening. Maybe you can change my mind?
Read Fintan O’Toole
I’ll have to figure out how to get behind the paywall.
You’re allowed 10 free articles a week?
I’ll check. May not be the case outside the EU. Could be wrong.
I also got hit with the paywall.
I will try to produce a suitable synopsis in due course – need time to write a new diary!