OK I’m going to go way off the reservation here and make some far out predictions based only on the most tenuous of currently observable facts. I do so because I can’t see the Brexit conundrum being resolved within the available universe of conventional solutions, and because I think the retribution of “the people” on those who authored their misfortune will be terrible.
It’s one thing punishing a government for poor performance during an economic downturn which may be little more that a reflection of a global business cycle. But its quite another when your government is almost the sole author of your misfortune, and not only that, has caused you to become the laughing stock of the “civilised” world. People have their pride, too, you know, and hate being made to look foolish.
My first few predictions will be somewhat mundane, but then the fun begins:
- The May Corbyn talks have already fulfilled their primary function of providing May with a pretext for seeking a further A. 50 extension and giving Corbyn an opportunity to look relatively measured, reasonable, and statesmanlike by comparison. It is in neither leader’s interest to actually come to an agreement, and hardly anyone expects or wants that anyway.
- Despite Macron playing bad cop the EU will agree May’s request for an extension, but with stern words about coming up with a workable plan, participating fully in the EP elections, and accepting a duty of “sincere cooperation” for as long as the UK remains a member. [Read: Keep Rees-Mogg off our lawn].
- UKIP and Farage’s new Brexit party will campaign enthusiastically in the EP elections as hating on the EU is their whole raison d’être. As before, no one will quite know where all their funding comes from. The Conservatives will be forced to follow suit despite fearing annihilation and wishing they could pretend the EP elections weren’t really happening and claiming they don’t matter anyway.
- Corbyn will find it increasingly difficult to ride both Leave and Remain horses at once and will point to the EP elections as an opportunity to “let the people have their say” and that Labour would abide by the result. However as the campaign progresses Labour edges ever closer to the Remain/second referendum position for fear of leaking votes to the Lib Dems and Change UK: The Independent Group party
- The EP elections will also be a lifeline for the new Change UK: The Independent Group party as most of their members face defeat in a FPTP single seat constituency general election and can only hope to cling on to a political career as MEPs. If elected they will seek to join the EPP so they can claim to be the only UK party in the only European Party grouping which matters much, these days.
- Both Sinn Fein and the DUP will lose votes in the N. Ireland EP election with the Ulster Unionist Party and the SDLP in a dogfight for the final seat. The sky will fall in if nationalists win 2 out of the three seats for the first time ever.
- Tory voters simply won’t show up for the EP elections claiming they are irrelevant as the UK is leaving the EU sooner or later anyway. Other important “influencers” will try to organise a boycott of the elections but will be confounded when the overall poll ends up being almost as high as the 2016 referendum or at least much higher than any previous EP election in the UK.
- The Tories are decimated receiving c. 15% of the vote, outvoted by both the Lib Dems and UKIP/Brexit party combined. Leave supporting parties are defeated by Remain supporting parties (if you include Labour) by a margin of 2:1. If the poll is high enough this would equate to a victory for Remain by 20 Million votes to 10 Million, eclipsing the 17 Million people who voted Leave in the 2016 referendum. All attempts to proclaim the vote as “meaningless” prove futile in the circumstances.
- May finally resigns as Tory Leader paving the way for a Tory Leadership election. Jeremy Hunt [“The EU is like the Soviet Union”] wins the Tory Parliamentary party leadership nomination process with Boris Johnson just about obtaining 2nd. place. Although it might be a struggle to imagine such a thing, Hunt is regarded as the “May Lite” candidate, a Remainer at heart who dutifully followed the dictates of “the people”.
- Dispensing with such nonsense the Tory Party membership (average age 70+, heavily infiltrated by ex UKIP members) proclaim Boris Johnson as their new leader. Unfortunately some Tory MPs fail to reconcile themselves to this prospect and do not vote for Boris as Prime Minister denying him a majority in the House of Commons. When he fails to win a vote for Prime Minister a second time, May (still acting Prime Minister) has no option but to call a general election.
- Johnson campaigns for a “no deal” Brexit with Labour promising to attempt to “reform” the EU before considering the matter of Brexit again. The Tories are decimated in the general election with Corbyn becoming Prime Minister and the Lib Dems becoming the largest opposition party. The SNP clean up in Scotland, Plaid Cymru do well in Wales, but the DUP retain most of their seats. (Nothing ever changes in Northern Ireland, see: Winston Churchill’s “the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone”).
- Prime Minister Corbyn more or less forgets the Brexit debacle ever happened and focuses on a domestic policy agenda. Proposals for EU reform are tabled in Brussels but are politely ignored or paid lip service to while the real business of the EU – screwing the little guy – is pursued with renewed vigour. Ireland finds there is a price to be paid for all that EU solidarity and reluctantly agrees some corporate tax reforms including a digital tax on the on-line e-commerce giants.
And then they all lived happily ever after…
so in this scenario there’s another referendum and the Remain people win so there is no Brexit?
Either that, or the European Parliament elections become a second referendum by proxy or default, triggering a Tory leadership contest which on turn triggers a general election which (at a minimum) puts Brexit on long-term hold and probably causes it to be abandoned altogether.
because Parliament isn’t bond by the previous referendum right?
Legally no, politically yes. So it needs to be superseded by another democratic event to get politicians off the hook… or at least those who want to get off the hook.
that makes sense
Wouldn’t they have to resign their Parliament seat to sit in the European Parliament? That would set off some hot by-elections, generally risky for the Remain side since the current occupants are Remain from non-Remain parties.
Yes the dual mandate has been outlawed so by elections would be required. I doubt those MPs would be too concerned as they would be most unlikely to hold their seats in a general election anyway – unless there is a massive swing towards changeUK – and a general election is looking more likely by the day…
However, that creates a huge incentive for a Remain voter not to vote for Change UK in the Euro elections, because the Change UK MEPs may generate risky by-elections. There are plenty of other Remain parties to vote for.
At this stage there is even a doubt whether ChangeUK will even be registered as a political party in time for the elections. After that they have to select and nominate their candidates, and I don’t know how many of their MPs will stand. Your point is valid, but I don’t know how many voters take those sort of considerations into account in the UK. The FPTP system tends to create a culture of just plumping for one party regardless of other considerations and most voters are not used to proportional or list system elections.
Personally, I really like the Irish multi-seat, single transferable vote proportional representation system. It creates all sorts of nuances and tradeoffs between parties, personalities, regional and gender balance considerations and allows a voter to give encouragement to fringe candidates/parties before ultimately using their vote to help determine the final outcome.
It encourages a more cooperative rather than confrontational political culture as extreme candidates don’t attract much in the way of lower preference votes. It results in a wide range of candidates/parties getting at least some representation and gives a voter much more than a binary choice in choosing a government.
Imagine a USA where either the Republicans or Democrats had to cut deals with the Greens or other third parties in order to be able to form an administration…
Looks like the can gets kicked until Halloween. Should be interesting between now and then.
So paragraphs 1 and 2 of my predictions above look like they have come to pass. The May Corbyn talks look like they are going nowhere and the EU has agreed an A.50 extension until October 31st. That means the UK has to take part in the EP elections and it creates enough time for a change of Tory leader, a general election, and even, at a pinch, a second referendum.
My suspicion is that not a whole lot will happen – despite much Sturm und Drang – until after the EP elections which I expect to be a disaster for the Tories.
In the absence of other major developments, the EP elections will also become a proxy for a second referendum and the outcome, depending on the turn-out, could determine whether Brexit will ever happen.
The Tories will go absolutely mad, desperate to get rid of Theresa May by any means available, and yet I expect May to hang in there until after the EP elections at least unless her deal is passed by the House of Commons beforehand.
More hard Brexiteers will probably be prepared to support her deal now, worried that otherwise Brexit will never happen at all. But she could also lose votes from Tory Moderates and Remainers who favour a second public vote. So, again, I doubt her deal will pass, and the EP elections could change the whole ball game.