The Democrats Should Take a Glass-Half-Empty Approach to 2020

Traditionally, the Democratic Party has done better at turning out their base in presidential years, but that will be difficult to accomplish in 2020.

I have worn a few different hats in life which provides me with a little insight on how to strategize, motivate, and help people win. I’ve done this as an athlete and coach, as a community organizer, and as a political consultant. Success is usually tied to access to information, which allows people to act purposively and to get the most of out of their expenditures of energy. Motivation is also a key component in promoting others’ successes, so you need to know who you’re working with and what makes them tick. Some people are motivated by fear of failure, while others have a passion to come out on top. Some people need a kick in the ass, and others need you to constantly buck them up lest they lose their self-confidence.

In general, I tend to be a fairly demanding and critical coach, and that means that I stress worst-case scenarios and improvement over praising progress and good effort. I take a glass-half-empty approach to most projects, and I adjust if it’s clear that I’ll get better performance through encouragement. So far, this bias has worked well for me and I think it’s the appropriate way to look at the survey data released by the Census Bureau this week.

There is good news and bad news for the Democratic Party. The good news is that the Republicans have developed a massive problem with college-educated voters, particularly professional women. It’s not just that white women with degrees preferred  Democratic congressional candidates (59 percent to 39 percent) in the midterms. They also turned out at a much higher rate than any other demographic.

The bad news is that women (and men) with college degrees almost maxed-out their turnout potential. A presidential election tends to create enough interest that the publicity becomes a fantastic turnout project.  People essentially get themselves to the polls without any pulling or prodding.  The Republicans will not have to do anything to vastly improve on their midterm numbers with their core demographics.

We’re restricting our view here to Democratic men and women with college degrees, but ordinarily it’s the Democrats who leave more votes on the table in the midterms. They generally fare much better in presidential years precisely because low-propensity and low-information voters have traditionally skewed Democratic.  It’s not clear that the 2020 elections will follow that pattern.

That’s bad news for a lot of Democratic House members who narrowly won Republican-held seats in 2018. They should not assume that the shape of turnout in 2020 will be an improvement.  They can expect about one million additional college-educated men and one million college-educated women to vote (nationwide) in 2020, but they can also expect an additional six million non-college educated men and eight million non-college educated women to turn out.

What this means is that the Republican candidates will be starting at a much higher floor as they race to catch up. In some districts, they might be starting at a higher floor than the incumbent Democrat.

There’s still some important information missing in the Census data that is presented here, including an analysis of how low-propensity Democratic voters turned out in 2018 relative to low-propensity Republicans. There are a lot of latent Democratic votes that can be cajoled to the polls in 2020 among non-college educated voters. In general, though, and consistent with my glass-half-empty approach, the Democrats need to do a better job of persuasion with these demographics in 2020 to compensate for the fact that the turnout model won’t automatically favor them as it has in the past.

I could praise the progress the party has made among affluent professional people in the suburbs, but I’m more worried about overconfidence.  I think emphasizing worst-case scenarios and providing a kick-in-the-ass is more likely to be helpful advice than doling out compliments and encouragement.  In this case, fear is the better and more appropriate motivator.

The Democrats should not think they can do as well as last time by squeezing every last vote out of the suburbs. They need to win some votes from former Trump voters and the disaffected Democrats they lost in the last two cycles or they could very well get another rude surprise in November 2020.

Friday Foto Flog

Amsterdam

Greetings photography enthusiasts. It’s Friday, and I am still trying this as a weekly feature. This one I took in Amsterdam the last time I visited

Please note that this is a reboot of a series that went to seed a few years ago. I know that there are some photo hobbyists like me who post here already. As always, I am hoping to incite a bit more “community behavior” in our community blog. AndiF and BobX used to curate the old foto flog. Others contributed quite regularly. Folks like Hurria, JimF, KNUCKLEHEAD, dada, olivia, ask, tampopo, Man Eegee, and a whole host of others posted photos at one time or another. I am sure I have missed someone in that list.

I don’t use anything especially fancy. My Samsung Galaxy S6 finally died after a very long life. I had it for a fairly long time. Currently, I am using an LG ThinQ40. It has some nifty features that I am still playing around with. One of my offspring has commandeered my old 35mm film camera, so I don’t get to use that one very often. At over 30 years, finding replacement parts when something goes bad on it gets to be a bit tricky. That’s another story for another day.

Some of our regulars have actual professional equipment, and before Photobucket turned into such a drag, we were graced by some absolutely stunning landscape shots, close-ups of flowers and insects, and some abstract photography. I’ve often marveled at the creativity of the folks who have meandered in and out of this community over the years. I use flickr to host my photos for the time being, although given some changes at flickr, that may soon end. I have tried out imgur as well. So far, so good.

Consider this series as a homage to its predecessor, and dedicated to the spirit of its ancestors. Enjoy.

Twitter Can’t Ban Racism Because They’d Have to Ban Republicans, Too

Having leaders engage in racist rhetoric winds up permeating everything with the result that racism is more socially acceptable.

When people complained about ISIS using the Twitter platform to share beheading videos, the corporation figured out how to solve the problem. Their approach was heavily reliant on blunt-force algorithms that auto-banned a lot of legitimate accounts, including some from groups who were acting as ISIS watchdogs. This is widely seen as an acceptable tradeoff, but many people are wondering why Twitter can’t do the same thing to eradicate white nationalist hate speech. It turns out that the reason the algorithm approach cannot be applied to white nationalists is that it would auto-ban a lot of Republicans, including some officeholders, and that would make it politically divisive.

At a Twitter all-hands meeting on March 22, an employee asked a blunt question: Twitter has largely eradicated Islamic State propaganda off its platform. Why can’t it do the same for white supremacist content?

An executive responded by explaining that Twitter follows the law, and a technical employee who works on machine learning and artificial intelligence issues went up to the mic to add some context…

…With every sort of content filter, there is a tradeoff, he explained. When a platform aggressively enforces against ISIS content, for instance, it can also flag innocent accounts as well, such as Arabic language broadcasters. Society, in general, accepts the benefit of banning ISIS for inconveniencing some others, he said.

In separate discussions verified by Motherboard, that employee said Twitter hasn’t taken the same aggressive approach to white supremacist content because the collateral accounts that are impacted can, in some instances, be Republican politicians.

One common response to this revelation is to point to the GOP and say, “See, look how racist they are!”  But I’d like to focus on something related but different. We hear people theorize all the time that Trump’s racism has given people permission to voice their own racist thoughts, and even inspired acts of racial or religious violence. It’s hard to measure something like that, just as it’s hard to know how many violent acts are inspired by portrayals of violence in media or video games.

In this case, we have something tangible that we can explore. The difficulty of banning white nationalist hate rhetoric from Twitter stems directly from the fact that it would be politically divisive and therefore problematic for the company.  The divisiveness doesn’t primarily derive from limitations on free speech. While some people are obviously sympathetic to the ideology and actions of ISIS, the number is too small to create a significant backlash when their content is banned.  Likewise, relatively few people are supportive of Nazis and Klansmen, and their content would not be missed if it were suddenly absent.  The divisiveness in this case arises from the fact that the subjects of the ban have political power.

Any move that could be perceived as being anti-Republican is likely to stir backlash against the company, which has been criticized by President Trump and other prominent Republicans for having an “anti-conservative bias.”

What this means is that everyone is subjected to hate speech on Twitter solely because there are Republicans who engage in hate speech.

So, while we can consider Trump’s influence on the rise of racist speech to be theoretical, we don’t need to be in any doubt about whether the party as whole is responsible for the visibility of hate speech.  This establishes a solid line of responsibility.

It shows how having leaders engage in racist rhetoric winds up permeating everything with the result that racism is more socially acceptable.  This isn’t some sociological conundrum or difficult question of causality of the kind we grapple with when he look at violence on television.  A major social media corporation feels compelled to allow white supremacists to operate on their platform because of the actions and attitudes of Republican Party officeholders.

This is another example of why leadership is so important. It’s not just how leaders speak that is important. In some cases, it is devastating that that they’re saying something at all.

Joe Biden Announces His Campaign By Attacking Trump’s Dangerous Racism

In calling Donald Trump a supporter of white supremacy, racism and anti-Semitism, Joe Biden isn’t making a tepid opening to his campaign.

At long last, former vice-president Joe Biden threw his hat in the ring on Thursday morning, announcing his candidacy for the presidency in a three-minute and thirty second video titled America is an Idea. The theme is unique among the Democratic candidates because it focuses exclusively on the president. As the The Daily Caller accurately put it, “Biden launched his long-awaited campaign with a nearly four-minute ad portraying Trump as a supporter of white supremacy, racism and anti-Semitism.”

Specifically, Biden emphasized the president’s response to the August 2017 riots in Charlottesville, Virginia that featured white supremacists clashing with anti-racism protesters and resulted in the deaths of two police officers and 32 year-old Heather Heyer.   Trump declared that there were “very fine people on both sides” of the protests, which Biden called “a defining moment for the country.”

“With those words, the president of the United States assigned a moral equivalence between those spreading hate and those who had the courage to stand against it, and in that moment, I knew the threat to this nation was unlike anything I had seen in this lifetime,” Mr. Biden said.

He continued by declaring:

“I believe history will look back on four years of this president and all he embraces as an aberrant moment in time. If we give Donald Trump eight years in the White House, he will forever and fundamentally alter the character of this nation. Our standing in the world, our very democracy — everything that’s made America America is at stake. That’s why I’m announcing my candidacy for president of the United States.”

If you’re in any doubt that Biden’s diagnosis of a defining moment is accurate, all you need to do is look at the response from the right. The Daily Caller wrote that Biden’s announcement video embraced Antifa and they characterized the white supremacists who were in Charlottesville as the true victims.

I have no doubt that everything Biden said in the video is sincere, but there was obviously considerable political calculation involved in deciding how to announce his candidacy. Biden did not talk about his own biography, which is filled with tragedy and moving courage and plenty of perseverance and accomplishment. He didn’t talk about the policy issues that rank highest on Democratic voters’ list of concerns, like health care, climate, and economic inequality.

Instead, he cast himself as a Nazi-slayer– a champion of tolerance and diversity who will vanquish Trump and the white nationalist movement that has rallied to his cause. This is not the message you’d expect from him if thought he was going to run to the middle and go after the white working class vote.

In some ways, by going so boldly against racism, Biden is addressing some things in his past, like his aggressive opposition to using busing as a tool of school desegregation, his support for tough-on-crime drug laws, and his inadequate treatment of Anita Hill during the confirmation hearings for Clarence Thomas.

By attacking Trump directly, he’s going in a different direction than the congressional Democrats went during their highly successful midterm elections of 2018, where they emphasized policy. Most of the other Democratic presidential candidates have been following that roadmap, but Biden knows that the base is hungry for red meat.

Another surprise is that Biden didn’t mention his good relationships on the other side of the aisle or suggest that he will unify the country. His message is inclusive and unifying, but only in aspirational terms– true unity can only come after the white nationalists are defeated.

In the end, by not talking about himself, not casting himself as a working man’s champion, and not preaching bipartisanship, Biden made choices that deemphasized his perceived strengths and that went against his brand. Yet, these same choices went a long way towards compensating for his perceived weaknesses.

He’s fortunate to have the luxury of this kind of agility, which he owes largely to being so well-known that he doesn’t need to create a good first impression. He knows that he has strength among working class and moderate Democrats, and so he doesn’t spend any time pandering to them. He knows that he has strengths among Obama loyalists, including especially in the black community, and he knows these voters will be critical in early states after Iowa and New Hampshire. It’s this latter group he chose to address during his announcement.

It wasn’t a cautious move. Calling the president a supporter of white supremacy, racism and anti-Semitism isn’t a tepid opening to a campaign.  It’s white-hot rhetoric coming from the white male establishment candidate with a reputation for bipartisanship and moderation.  It’s social justice rhetoric coming from the supposed champion of the white working class.

I think it’s a fascinating approach.

 

 

After Being Invited to Visit, Trump Insults the British Again

For a second time and with no evidence, the president accuses the British of spying on his campaign.

Other than a concern for keeping up appearances, I don’t know why Queen Elizabeth II invited Donald and Melania Trump to make a state visit to the United Kingdom in June. They are obviously not welcome there. Her reward came one day later when Trump used Twitter to endorse the conspiracy theory that the U.K. spied on his presidential candidacy. This isn’t the first time Trump has embraced this theory, nor is it the first time that the U.K.’s intelligence services have responded with undisguised contempt.

British intelligence issued a withering response to the theory, saying: “As we have previously stated, the allegations that GCHQ was asked to conduct ‘wire tapping’ against the then President Elect are nonsense. They are utterly ridiculous and should be ignored.”

It’s ungracious of the president to attack the British government after the Crown ignored the will of the people and offered their hospitality. The last time this happened, the White House quickly apologized.

The White House has apologized to the British government after alleging that a UK intelligence agency spied on President Donald Trump at the behest of former President Barack Obama.

National security adviser H.R. McMaster spoke with his British counterpart on Thursday about press secretary Sean Spicer’s comment from the White House podium about a Fox News report that said British intelligence helped wiretap Trump Tower during the 2016 campaign, a White House official said Friday.

The official described the conversation as “cordial” where McMaster described Spicer’s comment as “unintentional.”

McMaster also told his counterpart that “their concerns were understood and heard and it would be relayed to the White House.”

Here is what I wrote at the time:

Apparently, there were “at least two calls” from annoyed British officials in addition to a direct call to Sean Spicer from the British ambassador. I watched BBC News last night and they spent the entire time treating our president like a submental unbalanced charlatan, which is what he is. The main point they were keen to reiterate every five minutes was that the GCHQ (the U.K.’s equivalent to our National Security Agency) flatly denied that they had spied on Trump and that they wanted everyone to know that our president was full of “nonsense” and shouldn’t be taken seriously in the least.

Taking the two incidents together, the British have now informed their citizens variously that our president says “utterly ridiculous” things, is full of “nonsense,” “shouldn’t be taken seriously in the least,” and “should be ignored.”

This is kind of what our own intelligence services have been trying to tell us, which is supposedly some Deep State plot to stage a coup.

The last time the Trumps visited the queen, they acted about as boorishly as you’d expect. Actually, if you include Trump’s behavior after he got home it was worse than anything we could have imagined.

Here’s what happened:

The president’s visit to Britain was broadcast live on television, including footage of the 92-year-old queen waiting for Trump for 12 minutes and looking at her watch.

And here is what Trump told his supporters happened:

U.S. President Donald Trump told supporters that Queen Elizabeth II kept him waiting during his first official visit to the United Kingdom, blaming the media for reporting he’d been the one who was late for their meeting.

“I landed and I’m on the ground and I’m waiting with the king’s and the queen’s guards,” Trump told his supporters. “I’m waiting. I was about 15 minutes early and I’m waiting with my wife and that’s fine. Hey, it’s the queen, right? We can wait. But I’m a little early.”

This is all par for the course with our president. You can’t buy class and you can’t make a pathological liar tell the truth.

Congress Needs To Lock Up Non-Complying Witnesses

The House of Representatives has the inherent power to arrest and hold trials for people who don’t respond to their subpoenas.

In what has alternatively been described as a run-out-the-clock or torch-it-all strategy, President Trump has decided not to allow current and former administration officials to testify or produce documents for congressional oversight inquiries. In particular, he is fighting to prevent former White House counsel Donald McGahn from complying with a subpoena. There is a lot of commentary available about what this means. Is Trump a wannabe tyrant? Is this a constitutional crisis? What can or should the Democrats do in response?

On that last point, I have a possible response, and it’s probably not what you think.

Mike Allen of Axios quotes a source “familiar with the president’s legal strategy” who says “”Trump can run out the clock by taking a hardline position. The president thinks it’s in his political interest to keep the fight going, and make it harder for the Democrats to have a coherent message.”

If you keep this stalling strategy in mind, my solution may seem somewhat ironic.  But, before I get to my recommendations for the Democrats, I need to explain some history. Have you ever asked yourself why Congress has the right to hold people in contempt?  After all, there’s nothing specific in the Constitution that gives them that power.

To get the fullest possible answer to that question, I recommend that you read an article by legislative attorney Todd Garvey that was published by the Congressional Research Service on May 12, 2017. What I will do here is provide a brief summary.

In 1795, two men offered bribes to three separate congressmen. These congressmen introduced a resolution calling on the Sergeant-at-Arms to arrest and detain the two men “pending further action by the House.” A special committee was established to investigate, and they recommended that the House hold a trial. Of course, they then had to determine what would constitute a fair trial. Here is what they decided:

Upon adopting the resolution and after considerable debate, the House determined that the following procedures be adhered to: First, the complaining Members were to submit a written signed information to the accused and for publication in the House Journal. In addition, the accused were to be provided counsel, the right to call witnesses on their behalf, the right to cross-examination of the complaining Members through written questions submitted to the Speaker, and adequate time to prepare a defense.

The trial was held using these procedures. The House voted 78-17 to find one of the accused guilty of contempt for trying to corrupt the integrity of its members. The other man was essentially found not guilty.  This was the first exercise of Congress’s “inherent contempt power.” It’s one of three ways in which Congress can try to compel citizens to comply with their requests for information.  They can actually arrest people, hold them over for trial, and issue punishments without any help from either the executive or judicial branches.

The second way Congress can try to enforce a subpoena is to make criminal referral to the Department of Justice. They send a contempt citation to the Department of Justice via the U.S. Attorney with jurisdiction.  The obvious weakness here is that they are often depending on the executive branch to enforce a subpoena against an executive branch official, and this may not happen.

The third option is for Congress to “seek a civil judgment from a federal court declaring that the individual in question is legally obligated to comply with the congressional subpoena.” The problem here is that it can be a lengthy process with an uncertain outcome.

According to Mr. Garvey’s research, Congress has not utilized its inherent contempt power since 1935. There are a variety of reasons why the practice fell out of favor, but for almost half of this country’s history it was the primary way that Congress imposed its will. It wasn’t until 1857 that Congress enacted a statutory criminal contempt procedure that allowed them to enlist the help of the Justice Department, and they made little use of it for another twenty years.

One reason Congress wanted an alternative to holding trials for contempt is that they were time-consuming.  For a long time they were reluctant to use this alternative, however, because it was seen as more punitive than coercive, and therefore unlikely to result in them successfully receiving the information they were seeking.  Indeed, once someone has been found guilty of contempt of Congress in the federal courts, their obligation to Congress is generally finished. Only in rare cases has Congress intervened to rescind a criminal referral after a witness relented and agreed to cooperate.  This process has a decent deterrent value, as non-cooperating witnesses can receive fines and jail time. It generally does not get Congress what it actually wants.  These shortcomings were gradually accepted as preferable to holding congressional trials.

As for civil enforcement of subpoenas, this is a relatively new option. In 1978, the Senate created a procedure that gives the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia the jurisdiction to enforce their subpoenas. The House has no formal procedure in place, but has occasionally used a special authorizing resolution to accomplish the same thing.  The advantage of going this route is that it lets the judiciary arbitrate disputes between the legislative and executive branches. If Congress can’t get the U.S. Attorney General to comply with their requests, the civil enforcement avenue is the way to go.

Now, you probably want to know how all of this is applicable today.

The basic constitutional crises we have is that the executive branch is refusing to honor congressional subpoenas, and Congress certainly cannot compel the Department of Justice to act as their enforcement arm.  That knocks one Congress’s three options out from under them.  They could go to the courts, but that is time-consuming. The fact that the White House wants to go to court indicates that they see stalling as a viable strategy for thwarting the will of Congress.  Trump has even gone so far as to sue Democratic chairman Elijah Cummings of the House Government Reform and Oversight Committee in an effort to avoid compliance. Clearly, relying on the Courts to back them up is not consistent with a timely resolution of these matters. They’re also not guaranteed to win given the conservative bent of the Supreme Court.

Given that Congress doesn’t seem likely to vindicate its interests in a satisfactory manner through the first two options, that leaves the one that has lain dormant since 1935.  They could, for example, have the Sargent-At-Arms arrest Don McGahn and hold him over for trial in the House.

Before I go on, I must warn you that this too could fail. There are some judicially-imposed limitations on Congress’s inherent contempt authority. Namely, based on the partially superseded 1881 Kilbourn v. Thompson ruling, the information Congress seeks must be plausibly related to legislation they might pass or some regulatory scheme they’ve enacted.  A conservative Supreme Court might find reasons to side with the president and argue that anything from his tax returns to the relevancy of the infamous Trump Tower meeting with the Russians does not meet that criteria.

However, based on strong precedent and the facts at hand, Congress would still be an excellent position to win any challenge to their authority to hold a contempt trial of their own for Don McGahn and for other holdouts, like former chief of the White House‘s Personnel Security Office Carl Kline.

After a careful review of the relevant case law and congressional precedent, Mr. Garvey concludes that the House could create a select committee dedicated to compelling the enforcement of their subpoenas, which would help them avoid tying up regular business on the floor.

Ordinarily, I would never advocate taking such a radical step. The procedure seems anachronistic, and the idea that a citizen can receive a fair trial in a political body like the House of Representatives seems absurd and would probably be perceived that way by the modern mind. I don’t like the idea of Congress locking people up.

But the Trump administration is taking steps that are far more alarming and radical and norm-shattering than what I am proposing. I honestly don’t see how Congress has any alternative other than to lose this battle, and a lot of their power and prestige along with it.

In truth, I am no more than modestly concerned about congressional prestige. They need to invoke their inherent contempt authority less for themselves than for the rest of us. This rogue presidency is dangerous and cannot be left unchecked. There is still one way to check them, and as crazy as it might sound, it’s perfectly legal and has a long history.

So, yeah, Congress needs to get rough with non-complying witnesses and lock ’em up.

Trump Blocks Oversight of Security Clearance Lapses

The White House is resisting congressioanl oversight of their security clearance process because they know their behavior and processes are indefensible.

On April 1, 2019, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform issued a long memorandum based on the whistleblower testimony of Tricia Newbold, an 18-year veteran of the the White House‘s Personnel Security Office. Her allegations were extensive and explosive, and chiefly concerned mismanagement of the White House’s security clearance process.  The House Republicans had an interesting response.

Republicans said [committee chairman Elijah] Cummings “cherry-picked” excerpts of the closed-door interview with Newbold, whom they characterized as a disgruntled employee with limited knowledge of how security clearance decisions are made.

If Chairman Cummings cherry-picked her testimony, he sure wound up with a big bowl of fruit. I’ll highlight just four of her most concerning revelations:

  1. As an adjudications manager, she oversaw her office’s security clearance rejections. In as many as 25 cases where she affirmed those rejections, she was overruled, and the reasoning was not memorialized (as is standard) for later review or for legal or political defense.
  2. The office instituted a new policy of reciprocity, meaning that anyone with a preexisting security clearance was presumptively approved and did not undergo fresh vetting, despite the fact that they would be working in proximity to the president.
  3. Credit checks were eliminated for anyone who had been approved within the last six years, creating a window of vulnerability where people with financial problems (and therefore susceptible to bribery or blackmail) would not be detected.
  4. A significant number of people were granted interim security clearances during the review process and then were later rejected. Some of these people had been granted the highest level of access to classified material, including the presidential daily brief, but no damage assessment was being done in any of their cases.

Ms. Newbold, who has a form of dwarfism, alleges that her boss Carl Kline retaliated against her for raising concerns by placing files out of her reach. At one point, she was suspended 14 days for insubordination because she resisted changes in policy that she considered to be unacceptable risks to national security.

Reading through the memo that summarizes her testimony, one thing is more clear than anything else. She is exceptionally knowledgable about the White House security clearance process and can explain it in clear and concise language. This is obvious whether or not you agree with her or place the same weight as she does on the matters she red flags. The House Republicans have absolutely no justification or credibility when they argue that she has “limited knowledge of how security clearance decisions are made.” Her job for some time now has been to review how those decisions are made.

Mr. Kline has been moved to a position at the Pentagon, but the House Oversight Committee justifiably wants to question him. They issued a subpoena, and Kline was supposed to testify on Tuesday. That did not happen because the White House instructed him not to cooperate, and his lawyers are understandably trying to protect their client’s future employment:

In a separate letter Monday, Kline’s attorney, Robert Driscoll, told the [Oversight] panel that his client would adhere to the White House recommendation.

“With two masters from two equal branches of government, we will follow the instructions of the one that employs him,” Driscoll wrote in the letter addressed to the committee’s chairman, Rep. Elijah E. Cummings (D-Md.).

Were Mr. Kline to appear and testify, he’d have to explain why he decided to pick on a dwarf by deliberately placing files out of her reach, and I imagine things would not get much easier from there. The White House knows that the whole thing would be politically damaging and extremely hard to defend, so they’re willing to take this battle to the courts. I don’t think their claims of executive privilege are likely to prevail, but they will at least delay the day of reckoning and can hope that whenever Kline finally has to make an appearance the security clearance issue will seem like old news.

Ukraine Elects Pro-Western Comedian to the Presidency

Much like Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky used a fictional television program to vault himself into the presidency.

Volodymyr Zelensky is a Jewish-Ukrainian comedian. He’s known for his role as a teacher on a popular television program called “Servant of the People.” The premise of the show is that Zelensky’s character improbably becomes the president of the country after a video of him ranting against government corruption goes viral. Obviously, the sitcom is just as fictitious as The Apprentice, the American program that depicted Donald Trump as a competent business executive and savvy judge of talent.

The two shows also share something else in common.

KIEV, Ukraine — The comedian Volodymyr Zelensky won a landslide victory in Ukraine’s presidential election, according to official results with nearly all of the votes counted, making a comic actor with no experience in government or the military the commander in chief of a country that has been at war with Russian proxies for over five years.

With more than 95 percent of ballots cast on Sunday counted, Mr. Zelensky had won 73.17 percent of the vote, compared with just 24.5 percent for Petro O. Poroshenko, Ukraine’s incumbent president. Mr. Zelensky triumphed in every region, except for the area around the city of Lviv, a center of Ukrainian culture and nationalism in the west of the country.

Ukraine deserves a lot of credit for allowing Volodymyr Zelensky to run for president, and also for allowing him to win.  Vladimir Putin would never allow something like this to happen in Russia.  The result also defies the relentless propaganda out of Russia that depicts Ukraine as a hotbed of Naziism. Zelensky will be the first Jewish leader of Ukraine. The incumbent president was gracious in defeat.

Mr. Poroshenko conceded that that his presidency — which began in 2014 after street protests ousted Ukraine’s deeply corrupt, pro-Russian president, Viktor F. Yanukovych — was over.

“‘Never give up’ — I also hear that now,” Mr. Poroshenko said on Sunday night in Kiev. “But when I see the results of these exit polls, they are obvious and give reasons to call my opponent now and congratulate him.”

It appears that there will be an orderly transition of power, which is all the more remarkable because it will be taking place amidst a simmering civil war and armed conflict with a more powerful neighboring country.  Zelensky highlighted this accomplishment in his election night remarks:

Speaking at his campaign headquarters in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, moments after the scale of his apparent victory became clear, Mr. Zelensky took a jab at Russia and other former Soviet lands that have turned elections into empty rituals that merely confirm their authoritarian leaders’ continued rule.

“As long as I am not officially a president, I can say as a citizen of Ukraine to all countries of the post-Soviet Union: Look at us — everything is possible,” Mr. Zelensky said.

As for whether Putin will be happy with this result, you be the judge:

Zelensky supported the 2013–14 Euromaidan movement. During the War in Donbass, he actively supported the Ukrainian army. During his presidential campaign, Zelensky said that he would like Ukraine to become a member of the European Union and NATO, but that he wants Ukrainian voters to decide on the country’s membership of these two organisations in referendums. At the same time, he believed that the Ukrainian people had already chosen “eurointegration”.

Zelensky’s chief of staff Ivan Bakanov also said that Zelensky’s policy is supportive of membership of both the EU and NATO, and proposes holding referendums on membership. Zelensky’s electoral programme claimed that Ukrainian NATO membership is “the choice of the Maidan and the course that is enshrined in the Constitution, in addition, it is an instrument for strengthening our defense capability.” The program states that Ukraine should set the goal to apply for a NATO Membership Action Plan in 2024. The programme also states that Zelensky “will do everything to ensure” that Ukraine can apply for European Union membership in 2024. Two days before the second round, Zelensky stated that he wanted to build “a strong, powerful, free Ukraine, which is not the younger sister of Russia, which is not a corrupt partner of Europe, but our independent Ukraine.”

Nonetheless, President Trump has already called to congratulate Zelensky on his victory. They may not agree about key points, like Russian annexation of Crimea or the merits of NATO and the European Union, but perhaps they can bond over their shared experience of using a fictional television program to launch them into the presidency.

SCOTUS Seems Sympathetic to Effort to Corrupt the U.S. Census

Conservatives on the high court appear ready to approve a citizens question in the Census that will benefit the Republican Party.

According to Greg Stohr of Bloomberg Politics, the conservative Justices on the Supreme Court sounded very supportive during oral arguments on Tuesday of the Trump administration’s effort to add a citizen question to 2020 U.S. Census questionnaire. This is in spite of a lower court ruling “that in deciding to add the citizenship question, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross committed a ‘veritable smorgasbord’ of violations of the federal law.” The common sense response to the Census enterprise is summarized very well by Ari Berman at Mother Jones:

The administration added the question—“Is this person a citizen of the United States?”—in March 2018, claiming it was needed to better enforce the Voting Rights Act. The decennial census hasn’t had a citizenship question since 1950, and civil rights groups say the question will depress responses from immigrants who worry it could be used to initiate deportation proceedings against them. If large numbers of immigrants don’t respond to the census, the areas where they live could lose representatives in Congress and federal funding, transferring economic and political power to whiter and more Republicans areas. The Census Bureau opposed the addition of the question, saying it could cause as many as 6.5 million people not to respond to the census and increase the cost of conducting the census by millions of dollars.

But there was an actual point to denying Merrick Garland a spot on the Supreme Court and eliminating the Senate filibuster so the Democrats could not stop the confirmations of Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh. That point was largely about using the nation’s highest court to entrench the Republicans in power. The Census question will likely be approved, resulting in extra seats in Congress for red states, and more votes for them in the Electoral College.

This is just one of their assaults on precedent in the service of gaining a political advantage. They’ve already defanged the Voting Rights Act and made it easier both to deny people the right to register to vote and to purge people undesirable people from the voter rolls. They obviously delivered the Citizens United ruling and will likely strike down any progressive legislation aimed at curbing the influence of big money on politics.

This concerted effort to use the courts for political advantage is the reason that more and more Democrats are talking about adding more seats to the Supreme Court. It’s an idea the left abandoned after Franklin Roosevelt tried and failed to do it in the 1930s. Ever since, it’s been considered a non-starter, but you cannot expect half the country to take repeated beatings without having an aggressive response.

Does Trump Know What He is Doing in Libya?

The president has abruptly shifted American’s support to a strongman who is fighting the U.N.-approved government.

During Barack Obama’s presidency I probably wrote more than a dozen pieces begging him not to intervene in Libya, and I watched bitterly when he later said that his biggest mistake in office was “probably failing to plan for the day after” Moammar Qaddafi was killed. This was precisely why I had been so vehemently opposed to committing America to the future of Libya. Here’s a sample of what I argued at the time:

Getting Gaddafi to resign does nothing to assure stability. Who says that his opponents are unified? Who says they will agree to split the spoils equitably? Saddam ruled his country the way he did not only because he was a sadist but because the country would tear apart at the seams without some heavy hand to keep things in order. The same may well be true about Gaddafi. I’m not opposed to the idea of democracy for Libyans, but we shouldn’t get too invested in the idea. There’s no evidence that Libya is ripe for parliamentary democracy. If it happens, great. If it doesn’t, let’s make sure we’re not to blame…

…Let me say this again. We don’t know what kind of leadership would emerge from this opposition if they were to prevail, but they don’t even appear to have operational leadership in the field. We have no compelling reason to commit ourselves to this fight. It’s a mistake. And the president has been pushed very far out on a limb here, probably through a false sense of momentum arising from the successful revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt. It will be painful to walk this back, but unless Hillary Clinton discovers a compelling, organized opposition in Benghazi when she arrives there this week, our commitment to regime change in Libya should be scaled back. It’s not our problem. Obama is in the process of making it our problem. We should stand ready to prevent massacres and offer asylum, but should not commit our military to do what the rebels cannot do themselves.

Over and over again, I said that we were racing into a quagmire without doing our research.

What disturbs me is the absolutely thoughtless way that so many Americans and American leaders are willing to commit our country to the use of violence and meddling in other countries. In some cases it is justifiable, but can someone do a week of research before they start sending in the 82nd Airborne? I mean, Jesus, seriously…

Eight years later, Libya is still embroiled in civil war and violent factionalism. My purpose here is not to explain or discuss that history or those factions. I want to discuss something that Donald Trump did on Friday.

President Trump on Friday abruptly reversed American policy toward Libya, issuing a statement publicly endorsing an aspiring strongman in his battle to depose the United Nations-backed government.

The would-be strongman, Khalifa Hifter, launched a surprise attack on the Libyan capital, Tripoli, more than two weeks ago. Relief agencies said Thursday that more than 200 people had been killed in the battle, and in recent days Mr. Hifter’s forces have started shelling civilian neighborhoods.

Trump decided to back a military commander who is fighting against the U.N.-supported government. Mr. Hifter (or Haftar) is a U.S. citizen. He has backing from the governments in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. You may also find this of interest:

On November 2016, Haftar made a second trip to Russia to meet with the Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu. It was reported that while he was seeking weapons and Russia’s backing, Russia was holding off pending the new Trump Administration. On 26 December, it was reported that Russia had thrown its weight behind Haftar, saying he must have a role in the leadership of Libya.

Russia has since then treated wounded LNA soldiers, printed Libyan dinars for the Tobruk-based government, and signed exclusive agreements that will allow the Russian government to establish two additional military bases in eastern Libya. Global risk experts Giorgio Cafiero and Daniel Wagner recently observed that “Moscow appears to view Haftar – not the weak UN/Western-backed government – as the only realistic bulwark against extremism in post-Gaddafi Libya.”

When Hifter launched his latest offensive, the U.S. State Department condemned him. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued the following statement on April 7, 2019.

The United States is deeply concerned about fighting near Tripoli. We have made clear that we oppose the military offensive by Khalifa Haftar’s forces and urge the immediate halt to these military operations against the Libyan capital. Forces should return to status quo ante positions. All involved parties have a responsibility to urgently de-escalate the situation, as the UN Security Council and G7 ministers emphasized on April 5. This unilateral military campaign against Tripoli is endangering civilians and undermining prospects for a better future for all Libyans.

There is no military solution to the Libya conflict. This is why the United States continues to press Libyan leaders, together with our international partners, to return to political negotiations mediated by UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General Ghassan Salame. A political solution is the only way to unify the country and provide a plan for security, stability, and prosperity for all Libyans.

The civil war in Libya has been brutal on all sides, but as Ryan Goodman of Just Security points out, Mr. Hifter’s troops have been implicated in war crimes, including the summary execution of prisoners.

Due to a U.N. Security Council resolution that vests the International Criminal Court with jurisdiction over the situation in Libya, the prosecutor in The Hague is also a looming factor in Haftar’s future. With the backing of that resolution, adopted by the United States and other states unanimously in 2011, the prosecutor has already issued an arrest warrant for one of Haftar’s top military commanders, Mahmoud Mustafa Busayf Al-Werfalli. The allegations against Al-Werfalli include his directing or participating in a series of seven executions of 33 prisoners — that’s the war crime of murder.

Mr. Hifter is captured on video ordering his troops not to take prisoners, which is also a war crime. Because Hifter is a U.S. citizen, supporting him comes with a little extra legal liability.

What also separates Haftar from the rest of the pack is that, as a U.S. citizen, he is subject to parts of the US federal code that make it a crime to violate the laws of war. As Alex Whiting and I wrote in an article for Just Security in late 2017, “By extension, US officials who provide support to Haftar in the future may also risk criminal liability as aiders and abettors under US domestic law if it can be shown that they intentionally facilitated his crimes or, arguably, if the crimes are particularly grave, if they provided support with knowledge of those crimes.”

President Trump’s decision to back Mr. Hifter is stunning on many levels, including that Hifter isn’t exactly dominating the battlefield.

The policy reversal came as a surprise in part because Mr. Hifter’s forces also appear to be losing ground. His promises of a quick victory have proved false, and his forces appear outmaneuvered by those aligned against them. Most analysts say that he has little hope of exerting his authority over all of Libya any time soon, so his continued campaign may only prolong the country’s instability…

“It is nuts,” Mr. [Frederic[ Wehrey, [an expert on Libya at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace] said of Mr. Trump’s statement. “Even judging by the hard-nosed American goals of stabilizing the flow of oil and combating terrorism, this is completely shocking.” …

“I don’t think Hifter can do it,” said Lisa Anderson, a political scientist who has studied Libya and who was the president of the American University in Cairo during the uprisings of 2011. Although he may present himself as a strongman, she said, “he can’t actually control that part of the country and he will continue to face existential challenges there for the foreseeable future.”

What spurred the president to make this abrupt change in foreign policy on Friday? There are many theories already circulating. Here’s one:

US President Donald Trump’s apparent signal of support for the Libyan National Army over the UN-backed Government of National Accord was motivated by the president’s concerns over the impact another supply outage would have on oil and domestic gasoline prices, analysts said Friday.

After imposing sanctions on PDVSA, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, in January, and reimposing sanctions on Iranian crude exports in November, Trump likely fears that the loss of Libyan crude hike crude prices to politically unsustainable levels, these analysts said.

On the other hand, Trump seems to be aligning himself with Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy for Libya.

Days before Libyan military commander Khalifa Haftar launched an offensive to seize the capital and attempt to unite the divided country under his rule, Saudi Arabia promised tens of millions of dollars to help pay for the operation, according to senior advisers to the Saudi government.

The offer came during a visit to Saudi Arabia that was just one of several meetings Mr. Haftar had with foreign dignitaries in the weeks and days before he began the military campaign on April 4.

The announcement also came a day after the U.A.E’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, met with Secretary Pompeo and National Security advisor John Bolton in Washington DC.

My suspicion is that Trump called Mr. Hifter on Friday at the behest of John Bolton. This wouldn’t surprise me in part because Bolton is famously contemptuous of the United Nations. I don’t think Trump came up with this plan on his own or as a result of any thorough interagency policy discussion.  Bolton probably told them Hifter is fighting jihadists and that was enough to convince the president to make a hugely consequential move that will alarm and alienate our European partners and the leadership at the United Nations, as well as put American policymakers at risk of abetting war crimes.

Even someone as thoughtful and careful as Barack Obama managed to be bullied into overruling his own good instincts and committing the biggest blunder of his presidency in Libya.  I don’t think Trump has the first clue what he is doing with this decision, and that makes it all the more likely that it will not end well.