I have never lived in the Detroit metro area, but my college friends and girlfriend were from the area: Novi, Livonia, Birmingham, Sterling Heights, and Port Huron. I spent a lot of time in the area in the 1990’s and I was shocked at the casual way people shared virulently racist comments with me without the slightest anticipation that a white dude might have a problem with it or think less of them as a result. My acquaintances, with one exception, were not like this. But I soon came to realize that suburban Detroit was absolutely scarred by the 1967 riots, the mayorship of Coleman Young, and the resulting white flight. It was the most racially polarized place I’ve encountered in the north.
I was not in the least bit shocked when the area, which is filled with Irish and Italian-American union workers, a traditionally Democratic population, fell hard for Donald Trump. And I won’t be at all shocked if they vote for him again.
It’s not inevitable, however. Trump most definitely speaks for a lot of these people when he trashes someone like Rep. Rashida Tlaib. But many of these same people turned out to help Bernie Sanders defeat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 state primary. They’re really not economic Republicans at all. Union critiques of the GOP are as engrained in their history and culture as their hostility for the urban center of Detroit.
With some obvious exceptions, they’re not sold on the job Trump is doing. They see the way he conducts himself. The right Democrat will win a lot of their votes, although getting a majority could be a challenge.
I originally intended to write a deeper dive into the factors that will decide how the Detroit suburbs go, but I just how the horrible news that another dear friend has lost their child to the opioid epidemic. This is after years and years of struggle, halting progress, long periods of optimism mixed with months of worry and despair. It never ends.
A candidate with a plan for this crisis will get the attention of a lot of potential Trump voters. I assure you of that.
You’re overstating your case. Trump is not doing well in those areas at all. He’s down two in a region that he won by 12.
Let’s review the polls of Michigan from 2016.
We just had an election in 2018 and Whitmer won by 8.5 compared to polling of +10. She won Macomb by 3.5.
Anyway, are you denying polling now? Jeremy Peters is also a terrible reporter.
A lot of these suburban regions will swing against Trump uniformly. I think Wasserman found two key areas that might be more rigid in WI and FL.
Midterm elections mean little for general election results. You can blow off my familiarity with the people of this region if you want. That’s your choice. I gave you the polls to remind you that citing polls to predict how Trump will do in Michigan will give you a false sense of confidence.
Michael Moore was banging this drum hard in 2016 and is doing so again. I’ve never lived there, but I wonder how different Detroit is from Milwaukee or Pittsburgh? 3 industrial unionized cities with white flight in their history in the big 3 razor thin Trump states.
How do you think Biden would do there?
Biden was designed in a lab for Macomb County.
I’m sorry for you, and your friend’s, loss.
The roots of racism in southeastern Michigan go way deeper than 1967. For anyone who’s interested, the definitive work on the subject is Thomas Sugrue’s “The Origins Of The Urban Crisis”, in which he documents and explains how the “urban crisis” of the 1960s actually began decades earlier (1920s and 30s), and was abetted by generations of federal, state, and local policies.
It never ends. The triggers haunt addicts. They know them and fight them every day of their lives but they often lose too. We have a loved one suffering from addiction. It never ends, never. Maybe one day we will become wise enough to really help. Meanwhile we lock them up and force them to a rehab for detox that is too often a false hope. More, much more is needed, but that costs money. I am sorry for your loss.
I’m sorry for your loss.
As for the rest…I am a bit skeptical about Trump’s chances in a number of areas where he seemed to surprise us all. That said, it is best to prepare for the worst and for any candidates currently competing for the Democratic nomination to run as if they are underdogs. Basically, hope for the best, prepare for the worst. I will probably feel a bit more comfortable about polling data once we get an idea of who is likely to get the Democratic nod.
I wouldn’t read too much into the primary results when drawing conclusions about what they tell us about an area’s populist/progressive leanings. Clinton is a uniquely polarizing figure in US politics thanks to decades of right-wing smears and relentless hateful propaganda, on top of no small number of legitimate reasons for disliking the Clinton brand. Anyplace where Sanders beat her in the primaries could simply be due to his being the only viable alternative–I guarantee you my home state of Oklahoma didn’t select him out of solidarity with working people or his economic message, but simply because Hillary Clinton is deeply loathed there. There’s a long and proud union history in lots of red states like WV, but it doesn’t necessarily bear on modern politics.
*Edit* This is not to imply that Michigan is a red state, just making the point that union history and even modern presence don’t always have the influence we expect.