On Jamelle Bouie and News Coverage of the MAGA Crowd

The biggest story in American politics is that the president of the United States is a raving racist and that more and more people are making excuses for him.

Imagine that your daughter got in trouble in school for using a racial epithet against a classmate. What do you think would be the best news angle on this? That she did it, that a lot of parents and students were outraged by it, or that some parents and the school administration defended your daughter and that she wasn’t punished?

Of the three, the least interesting is the one where people acted as you’d expect them to act. When children make racist attacks on other children, that naturally upsets people. It’s somewhat newsworthy that it happened at all. But the actual story here is about the people who didn’t act as expected. The parents who defied expectations and said that the comment wasn’t really racist or intended to be offensive or the principal who declined to take any administration action– these are the natural hooks to any good news story on this hypothetical event.

Declining to focus first and foremost on the outraged parents and students who complained isn’t an effort to erase their point of view. Yet, because they’re not particularly newsworthy, their reinforcement of expected behavior can get deemphasized in importance even if, in a way, it’s the most important thing.

This is why I am sympathetic to what Jamelle Bouie is arguing in the New York Times when he points out that the majority of Americans have always opposed Trump and Trump’s racism. He wants to know why the people who love his racism or are at least willing to countenance it are seemingly the only ones the press ever wants to discuss.

Well, I already explained that. Implicit in covering outrageous behavior is the fact that it isn’t normal. But if your opinion is always relegated to the implicit, it can seem like it isn’t being given proper exposure or weight.

The flip side of this, though, is that normative, majoritarian behavior and opinion is presented as correct on the merits. The time to really worry is when it becomes newsworthy that people are upset about kids making racist comments to other kids at school or it becomes rare that such actions are punished.

At a certain point, the very deemphasis on the most important thing becomes newsworthy and people need to be reminded that this country still agrees that hurling racial insults at each other is not good. That’s what Bouie is doing here, and he’s providing a needed corrective to the narrative. But that doesn’t mean the overall critique of the media is correct. When Trump does something unprecedented and norm-shattering, that’s a story. When people shrug it off, that’s a story. If we don’t make these stories, then the norm is weakened and the aberrant behavior replaces it.

So, it’s important to remember that if we want racism to stay outside the norm, we must enforce the lines that should not be crossed and highlight it when they are crossed. We have to shame the people who make excuses more than we applaud the people who cry foul.

Yet, if we let this pattern repeat over and over again without highlighting the good people who are upholding the norm, that’s a mistake, too, because it distorts the overall picture and gives too much attention to the bad people.

Bouie also attempts a political argument that mobilizing black voters is one of the more important ways that the Democrats can improve on their 2016 performance, and this is also true. Yet, it remains the case that if the same people vote the same way in 2020 as they did in 2016, then Trump will win again. Relying solely on differential turnout or a different combination of third-party candidates to pull the Democrats over the top is not a sound strategy. Some Obama/Trump voters need to be won over next time. Not every 2016 Trump voter is attending his rallies in a MAGA hat and chanting for Democratic congresswomen of color to leave the country. If this were the case, Trump would be at least even money to win again. The Democrats do have to be concerned with how people in so-called Trump Country feel about the party because they have to do better with them in 2020.

It may be annoying, but it remains true that the biggest story in American politics is that the president of the United States is a raving racist and that more and more people are making excuses for him. That his support among Republicans remains sky high despite his aberrant behavior is not only a big story, but also an enormous threat to the character of the country and the Democrats’ hopes of defeating him.

For these reasons, the stories will continue, and they should continue. It’s actually a way of preventing racism from becoming the new norm.

Rahm Emanuel is Wrong About Everything

Because he refuses to acknowledge the real problem progressives are posing, he winds up attacking them for all the things they’ve been right about.

Rahm Emanuel takes a shot at the Netroots in his latest column for the Washington Post. I can’t really complain about that. Despite being a founding member of the movement, I just took my own shot at the Netroots. But I do find his reasoning curious.

First, he’s at pains to assure us that the Democratic Party has not “lurched” to the left.  Yet, he gives away his motive for saying this right at the top. He thinks the “presumption” that the party has moved “dramatically” to the left could cost them the election.

The most hyped theme of the 2020 election cycle is that the Democratic Party has lurched suddenly and dramatically to the left. Not only has the party not lurched, but also the presumption that Democrats are undergoing some sort of ideological transformation may undermine our opportunity to defeat President Trump next year.

So, he’s not interested in figuring out if the party has moved too far left. He’s only interested in beating back the impression that this has happened. I have to say, at least he’s honest about what he’ll try to accomplish in the piece. He’s not going to be discussing calls to quickly transition to a nationalized health program that eliminates all private insurance plans. He’s not going to look at which candidates have endorsed providing free health plans to undocumented people. He’s not going examine how the candidates’ positions on border issues are going overin critical swing districts. If you want that kind of information, you have to look elsewhere in the pages of the Washington Post:

“I think there has to be some moderation. I disagree with the candidates’ positions about providing health care to undocumented immigrants, when you have Americans who don’t have health care,” said Domingo Garcia, president of the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), which held its convention here. “I think that was a snap decision by some of those candidates that wasn’t thought through.”

Cecilia Muñoz, a White House aide to President Barack Obama and a former policy advocate at the National Council of La Raza, a Latino advocacy group now known as UnidosUS, said decriminalizing unapproved border crossings would make it harder for Democrats to combat President Trump’s populist appeal.

“It allows him to make a claim that he is already making, which is Democrats are for an open border,” she said. “And it makes it harder to explain why that is not true.” She added that stopping family separations at the border doesn’t require making the crossings civil offenses.

Emanuel is going to ignore what the candidates are advocating and blame progressives for getting “louder and angrier over the past several years.” Yet, this is where things get really weird. What are the progressives angry about, in Rahm’s view? Well, first it’s the Democratic Party losing most of the time even when the left gets more votes. And, second, it’s that even Clinton and Obama didn’t deliver on all their promises.

Even as Democrats have won more votes than Republicans in every presidential election except one since 1992, many on the left feel as though their demands have been deferred, denied or never addressed — not by the two Republican presidents elected since then, but worse, not by the two Democrats, either.

These seem like reasonable things to be frustrated about. So, what are the issues that are particularly troublesome?

Today’s activists are still angry about welfare reform, the bogus case of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, Guantanamo Bay and the failure of the public option during debate over the Affordable Care Act, just to name a few.

I suppose Emanuel probably wants to defend welfare reform, but is he not angry about the bogus WMD case used to rally support for the Iraq War? Even Trump expresses anger about this.

Is Emanuel not frustrated that his former boss, Barack Obama, failed in his effort to close Guantanamo Bay? As Obama’s first chief of staff, getting this done was a key part of Rahm’s job, and he failed.

As for the public option, adding one to the Affordable Care Act is now the key health care initiative of Joe Biden’s campaign. Many progressives see that as inadequate today, but their prior support for Biden’s present position is hardly evidence of their irrational anger.

Rahm’s next step is to take a shot at Elizabeth Warren and the Netroots.

As someone who’s been doing this for a while, let me assure you that some of the people supporting Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s campaign today are cut from the same cloth as those who were heartbroken when Bill Clinton dispatched Jerry Brown during the 1992 primaries. They’re making many of the same arguments Ralph Nader made when he ran against Al Gore in 2000. Some are veterans of the Netroots, a group that emerged during the George W. Bush years.

This just looks like bitterness to me. Rahm is still harboring resentments against Jerry Brown supporters? Brown just completed two very successful terms as governor of our nation’s largest state. He was widely-praised both for achieving many progressive goals and for knowing when to draw the line on progressive demands. He’s now a radical non-team player like Ralph Nader? Brown’s 1992 supporters were just proto-Naderites? And Elizabeth Warren is a Naderite, too?

As for the Netroots, he doesn’t even deign to explain what is wrong with them.  He just wants you to know they that aren’t anything new or novel. They’re the same McGovernites that cost the Democrats all but one elected between 1968 and 1992.

In fact, it was progressives who controlled the Democratic Party’s agenda for the quarter-century before Clinton’s victory in 1992. That’s one of the reasons we lost every presidential election held between 1968 and 1988 except the post-Watergate win by Jimmy Carter. History has proved there aren’t enough voters on the far left, on their own, to elect and reelect a president or maintain a majority in Congress.

He only mentions this history to assure us that the progressives don’t have that kind of negative influence today and the only danger is that people will presume that they do.

Proving that this piece is a complete mess, Rahm then goes on to discuss other threats. Example one is the progressives’ power to purge moderates.

What remains to be seen is whether today’s far left is more interested in defeating Trump than it is in drumming moderates out of the Democratic Party.

Example two is the progressives’ tactics and rhetoric:

That then points to the third myth: namely that, to win, Democrats need to mirror Trump’s abrasive political style. When Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) riles up his supporters by boasting that “there is no middle ground,” he’s promising to be a liberal answer to Trump — to fight fire with fire as Trump’s liberal mini-me. That’s the wrong approach.

I don’t know how you set out to explain that the party has not moved too far to the left and that progressives pose no threat and then spend much of your time discussing their power and potential to do damage.

In the end, Rahm really only succeeds in pointing out that moderate Democrats still make up a huge part of the party’s base of support. This should be obvious by looking at Joe Biden’s persistent, if dwindling, lead in the polls. But what Rahm doesn’t address is the main dispute.

It’s really never been an argument over the merits of a public option versus Medicare-for-All or about whether or not ICE and the border patrol deserve to be broken up and scattered to the winds, as JFK famously threatened to do to the CIA.  Moderate Democrats generally agree with the progressives on these issues in the abstract. What they don’t want to see is the Democrats squander the advantages in a senseless manner.

The party won the 2018 midterms primarily by hammering Trump on health care. Why would they flip that around by endorsing taking everyone’s private health insurance away? Donald Trump has presided over crimes against humanity at the border that have shocked the conscience of the country and the world? Why would the Democrats adopt hugely unpopular border and immigration positions that result in swing voters preferring crimes against humanity to their platform?

Emanuel seems to get close to everything wrong with this piece. It’s not necessarily the party members who have shifted far to the left. As of now, they’re showing a strong preference for an Obama Democrat. It’s the presidential field of candidates who have lurched to the left by adopting enormously unpopular positions that have the potential to turn some of Trump’s biggest vulnerabilities into areas of strength. And if these candidates are doing this because of pressure from progressives, then that means the progressives have disproportionate influence, which is the exact opposite of what Rahm is saying. Finally, because Rahm refuses to acknowledge the real problem progressives are posing, he winds up attacking them for all the things they’ve been right about, like opposing the Iraq War, wanting to close Guantanamo, and demanding a public option for Obamacare.

I used to support Rahm Emanuel against some of the attacks he received from the Netroots but he lost me for good with his cover-up of the police killing of Laquan McDonald. I called for him to resign as mayor of Chicago in December 2015. Since that time, I have not considered him to have the moral credibility to offer his opinion on anything, and it doesn’t help that he can’t make a coherent argument even on things I might be at least half-inclined to agree with.

Why Bernie Sanders is Stagnating

He needs to accept that he’ll have to make up for whatever media bias actually does exist against his campaign by working harder in the other key areas of running for office.  

If you want to know what’s ailing the campaign of Bernie Sanders you need not look much further than this article in The Hill. First, there is the candidate himself, he hasn’t changed his message much since he first ran to be the mayor of Burlington, Vermont in the 1980’s.

On Sunday’s “Meet the Press,” NBC anchor Chuck Todd confronted Sanders with criticism that his 2020 campaign sounds exactly like his 2016 campaign.

Sanders responded that he will change what he’s saying, “when the poor get richer and the rich get poorer, when all of our people have health care as a right, when we are leading the world in the fight against climate change.”

He’s obviously had success in bringing the party and, to a degree, the nation closer to his views on the issues, but if being coopted is a great thing for a message candidate it’s a terrible thing for a candidate who wants to stand out and win.

His refusal to add any new material to his repertoire is killing him and folks are beginning to prefer his tribute bands.

The second big problem with his campaign is that his operatives are acting like crybabies, which is never a good look.

Ari Rabin-Havt, the chief of staff for the Sanders campaign, said “there’s an institutional bias in the media for something new” and the press is no longer interested in covering the proposals Sanders brought to the forefront in the 2016 campaign that have since become mainstream in the Democratic Party.

Rabin-Havt highlighted the “insidious” instances in which the media wrote up polls that showed Sanders firmly in second place but the headlines and leads of the stories focused instead on Harris and Warren rising into third or fourth place.

And he suggested that the top levels of the political press don’t understand Sanders’s appeal because they’re disconnected from ordinary Americans.

“The elite media, the media that’s at the top, the cable nets, the lead editors, the reporters, they tend to live in Washington, D.C., or New York,” Rabin-Havt said. “They tend to be upper-middle class or wealthy. They work for companies worth billions of dollars. So on TV you have millionaires paid by billionaires to present information.”

Obviously, whenever a new poll comes out, the most interesting information is in how it differs from the last poll.  Expecting the press to focus on the things that have not changed is ridiculous, and charging them with being too privileged to give Sanders (who is also a millionaire) a fair shake is downright dishonest.

An anonymous Sanders operative had a healthier take on things.

“We’ll never be the favorites in the media. I get it. But when was the last time one of these pundits visited a field office or talked to a state director? The bottom line is we have 2 million [donors] who have bought stock in what we’re trying to do. That’s powerful. If the media doesn’t want to tell that story, that’s fine. It just means we have to out-hustle these other campaigns.”

This is actually a good response. Don’t tell the press what to cover. Instead, invite them to cover something and tell them why it would be newsworthy. Don’t be satisfied with bitching about your coverage. Work for it, and accept that you’ll probably have to make up for whatever media bias actually does exist against your campaign by working harder in the other key areas of running for office.

I don’t doubt that Sanders is building a formidable ground game, especially in Iowa, and he may surprise people on caucus day. But if he wants more news coverage, he needs to make news. He can do that by offering new policies, emphasizing different policies, offering more contrasts, making appearances in new venues or with different audiences, and by creating good viral-worthy content that doesn’t look like the same stuff he put out four year ago.

Bleating at the media because they won’t repackage your stale material is a loser’s game.

Are the Democrats Too Stupid to Beat Donald Trump?

He’s running a campaign focused on the voters he needs to win, but the Democrats are talking only to their base.

Despite Charlie Sykes’ warnings, the current political cycle really does not have that much in common with 1972. For one thing, the Democratic Party is not currently the default majority party in the country and it is not coming apart at the seams or circling the drain. If anything, the Democrats are about dead-even with the Republicans and have the wind at their backs, as demographic trends (in both youth and ethnicity) heavily favor them to make advances in the near future. There are some ideological divides between the center and the left and between the older generations and the younger ones, but nothing as severe as what divided the Southern and Northern wings in 1972.

Having said that, I have been ringing a lot of the same alarm bells as Sykes about the Democrats putting their 2020 campaign in peril. The Democrats have basically substituted their farmer/labor alliance for an urban/suburban one, and it may work out as a nearly even trade in the raw numbers but it has exacerbated the problem of having most of their votes concentrated into small areas while also creating an Electoral College challenge (see 2016).

The flip side of the Republicans losing all their moderates is that the Democrats are now living in a bubble. What they see as obvious is not obvious in most congressional districts. What they see as virtuous is not necessarily seen as virtuous, patriotic or even sane in most congressional districts.

There are creating two problems for themselves. The first is a possible repeat of 2016, where they become perceived as so out of touch to the values and concerns of small-town and rural Americans that even a ridiculous man like Donald Trump seems highly preferable. The second is that they’re beginning to stress their suburban support with some of their policies, and the only way to offset rural losses is to do even better in the suburbs than they did four years ago. If Trump does as well or even better in his base areas as in 2016, and the Democrats do not improve on their suburban numbers, then the president will almost surely be reelected.

This is still not all that likely to happen in my view for the simple reason that Trump has lost support throughout his four years in office. He cannot depend on people to vote for him on the assumption that he’s going to lose anyway. He’s not a (ha, ha) joke or protest candidate anymore. He won’t get the considerable bloc of people who always vote against the incumbent regardless of party. He won’t automatically get the historically anti-Clinton suburban vote either, since there will be no Clinton on the ballot. More than this, Trump has definitely lost support among moderates, particularly well-educated folks from the professional classes. He’s going to do worse with Asians, Indians, Latinos, and blacks than he did four years ago. He’s not beginning this race at the starting line with his opponent. Despite the advantages of incumbency, he is starting from the rear.

Nixon did not suffer from most of these disadvantages in 1972. He would have been difficult to defeat no matter who the Democrats nominated or what they promised on the campaign trail. Trump is not looking at potentially winning 49 states. He’s looking at trying to win twice while losing the popular vote.

But he does have a strategy and the strategy is correctly calibrated for the task at hand. He must racialize the electorate to maximize his vote in heavily-white communities and tap a wedge in-between the urban and suburban Democrats so that the latter will defect in sufficient numbers for him to recover his losses. His problem is that efforts to maximize his white vote actually have the effect of pushing urban and suburban Democrats into a closer alliance. For this reason, he will fail unless the Democrats help ramp up his base numbers and depress their own.

This is where policies like free health care for undocumented people or abolishing all private health insurance are going to do damage. These things are not popular in general and are especially unpopular with the Democrats’ suburban base. A lot of the Democrats’ rhetoric on border issues is toxic not just in the sticks but also in the communities ringing our cities.

So, yes, the Democrats really could blow this election by running a non-strategic campaign based on abstract values against a campaign that is laser focused on just the voters it needs to win.

This isn’t an argument for changing values, but it is an argument for not being too stupid to beat a man like Donald Trump.

Midweek Cafe and Lounge, Vol. 123

I’m back!

Now that I am back from the Netherlands and have had time to recover from spending the last month traveling one way or another through about ten different time zones, it’s time to bring some jams back to here.

Seems appropriate that I start off with a now defunct Dutch nu-jazz combo, Electric Barbarian. This track is from their first LP, and includes original Last Poet member Gylan Kain dropping some rhymes.

Enjoy!!!

Pelosi Holds All the Cards in the Debt Ceiling Fight

The chances of default are higher than they have ever been. Will Trump capitulate to the Speaker’s demands?

It may not be accurate, but many political analysts believe that Donald Trump’s tenuous hold on approval numbers in the low-to-mid forties is reliant on the continued health of the economy. It seems like a sound theory. Trump has occasionally slipped into the high-thirties, so we know that his floor is at least that low. It also appears that good unemployment numbers, a growing stock market, and decent economic growth are his best arguments for reelection.  This actually gives the Democrats an incentive to sabotage the economy as the Republicans attempted to do repeatedly during the presidency of Barack Obama. It’s probably only a sense of basic responsibility, one their right-wing colleagues don’t share, that prevents them from welcoming a default on the nation’s debt.

Contrary to their promises, the Republican tax cuts have not generated more tax revenue and the Treasury Department believes that the country could run out of money during Congress’s August recess.  This puts Nancy Pelosi in the driver’s seat. She knows that if we default it will kill our credit rating and cause an economic contraction, possibly on a global scale. She also knows who will get blamed most if that happens. It will be Donald Trump, who has few accomplishments aside from the performance of the economy to show the electorate. If she is going to save Trump from defaulting in the next few days before Congress goes home for summer vacation, she expects to get something in return.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke late Monday as they tried to broker a debt ceiling and budget deal with just days left before Congress plans to leave for the rest of the summer.

The talks took on new urgency after Pelosi shot down a White House fallback plan that would have Congress raise the debt ceiling — potentially for just a short period of time — by late next week if they failed to reach a budget agreement.

Pelosi, the California Democrat, said the idea of raising the debt ceiling on its own and not in conjunction with a budget agreement was not “acceptable to our caucus” and therefore did not stand a chance of passage in the House of Representatives.

She’s demanding a two-year spending agreement and she’s not interested in a short-term fix so they can resume negotiations after Labor Day. This is her hardball negotiating position, but it’s not clear she’ll stick to it.  Some people are operating on the assumption that she won’t.

People involved in the negotiations said they were not panicking and that there were still multiple options to avoid a full-blown crisis, and they also said that all sides were working hard to reach a resolution. One option would be for lawmakers and the White House to reach an agreement in principle on the budget before the August recess, temporarily raise the debt ceiling, and then agree on specifics in the intervening months.

There’s little doubt in my mind that a Republican Speaker dealing with a Democratic president would be willing to stick to their guns and get the concessions they demanded. But that would more obviously work because a Democratic president would rather make concessions than risk throwing millions of people out of work. I don’t know for sure that Donald Trump really understands what default would look like and what it would do to his political standing. Pelosi holds his fate in her hands, and he doesn’t like to be in that kind of situation and may just be constitutionally incapable of accepting it as a reality.

It’s dispiriting to see our government once again playing chicken with people’s livelihoods, but this is how we conduct business in Washington, DC these days. Trump has every incentive to do anything he can to convince Pelosi that he’d destroy everything out of stupidity and spite, but her incentives to save him are not political. What’s more, she isn’t a magician who can get her own members to cave to the president on the budget. Even if she gets to a point where she’s willing to blink, her caucus is not likely to follow along. This is especially true because the House Republicans aren’t likely to vote in unison for an agreement no matter what is contained within it. Many of them simply won’t vote to increase the debt limit. This means Pelosi has to convince a large number of her members to vote for the deal.

So, the chances of default are probably higher than they have ever been. The clearest way out is for Trump to capitulate to Pelosi’s demands right now. Do you think he will?

I Write Letters: Circumcision Isn’t Castration

The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Christine Flowers tries to apply her long-held belief that feminists are castrating bitches to the Jeffrey Epstein case—and butchers the comparison.

Philadelphia is a wonderful city that deserves a better daily newspaper than what it has. That’s been the case ever since I arrived here in 1999, but with the Inquirer’s newsroom collapsing it’s still sad to see someone like Ann Coulter wanna-be Christine Flowers clinging on for dear life and still spewing hatred. As the kids say, shit floats.

I promised myself—I probably promised you—that I wouldn’t write about Flowers again. Nothing she says or does will get her removed from the opinion pages of that paper, because the editor can’t tell the difference between friendships and employees.

But after my father handed me the paper yesterday morning and asked me “what is she talking about,” the resulting brain cramp basically forced me to write a letter. The content was classic Flowers, in this case blaming women for something a man did. Well, not a man, exactly—Jeffrey Epstein, to be specific. I don’t think a guy that rapes little girls counts as much of a man.

Buried in an otherwise useless article was a little gem of stupid:

This is why the indictment of Jeffrey Epstein for sex trafficking is so important. First and foremost, it begins to introduce justice for the dozens of young women he abused. Beyond that, his case provides an opportunity to highlight the overreach of the #Metoo movement — which has morphed into a white, upper middle-class crusade that turns outraged women into avenging mohels — and how that movement has hijacked our perspective on sexual assault and abuse.

Now, if you’re not Jewish you may not have heard the word mohel before. Flowers obviously has—but as Inigo Montoya says, “You keep using that word, I do not think it means what you think it means.” So I wrote a letter to help straighten her out. Sadly, it wasn’t chosen for publication, so I will share it here with you.

I’m not sure exactly what Christine Flowers means when she writes that the #MeToo movement “turns outraged women into avenging mohels.”

I THINK what she’s trying to say is that women in that movement are trying to castrate men, except that’s not what a mohel does. According to Wikipedia, a mohel “is a Jew trained in the practice of brit milah, the ‘covenant of circumcision.'” The testicles are not removed, nor is the tip of the child’s penis, as suggested in numerous dirty jokes. It’s more like removing a scarf or a hat.

Perhaps she is trying to make a clever reference to the fact that Jeffrey Epstein is Jewish? That doesn’t make much sense either: Epstein’s religion has little to do with his alleged crimes. In fact, if there’s any religion one could associate with pedophilia and child sex abuse, it’s Flowers’ own faith, Catholicism.

On a related note, I’d like to personally thank Ms. Flowers for ruining our breakfast table conversation. The last thing anyone wants to think about over their bowl of Cheerios is the bloody remnants of an infant’s foreskin. Yet here we are. Bravo, Inquirer! Another tour de force.

I found myself laughing at this on two separate levels. The first of course is the notion of an army of vengeful women attacking men and relieving them of their foreskins, which is a minor procedure that leaves no lasting damage. The second level is that in this scenario, the actual target of Flowers’ ire—Jeffrey Epstein—would escape completely unscathed, since his foreskin was presumably sacrificed some 66 years ago.

A good copy editor or fact checker would have caught that one, but that’s not a priority for the Inquirer anymore.

Ecuador Concluded That Assange Has Ties to Russian Intelligence

It’s implausible that Assange didn’t know the provenance of the hacked material. It seems clear that he was a key and witting part of Russia’s effort to throw the election to Trump. 

Julian Assange has many supporters around the world who value him for his fight for transparency in government and his exposure of financial misdeeds by powerful people. This is why there has been so much resistance to accepting that he might also be effectively an agent of Russian intelligence. But a man can wear more than one hat, or change hats over time. It’s well-established that Assange received hacked emails and other documents from the Russians that he then released in a way calculated to maximally benefit Donald Trump. What hasn’t been proven beyond any doubt is if he realized the true source of the materials he received.

After the 2016 election, Ecuador, which was hosting Assange in their London embassy, hired a Spanish company to look into this question and to assess his true loyalties. Their report has been obtained by CNN.

These stunning details come from hundreds of surveillance reports compiled for the Ecuadorian government by UC Global, a private Spanish security company, and obtained by CNN. They chronicle Assange’s movements and provide an unprecedented window into his life at the embassy. They also add a new dimension to the Mueller report, which cataloged how WikiLeaks helped the Russians undermine the US election.

An Ecuadorian intelligence official told CNN that the surveillance reports are authentic.

The security logs noted that Assange personally managed some of the releases “directly from the embassy” where he lived for nearly seven years. After the election, the private security company prepared an assessment of Assange’s allegiances. That report, which included open-source information, concluded there was “no doubt that there is evidence” that Assange had ties to Russian intelligence agencies.

According the report, in the critical month of June 2016, Assange had “at least seven meetings…with Russians and others with Kremlin ties, according to the visitor logs.”  He also had “five meetings that month with senior staffers from RT, the Kremlin-controlled news organization.” One of those meetings should be of particular interest:

In June 2016, RT’s London bureau chief, Nikolay Bogachikhin, visited Assange twice, and gave him a USB drive on one occasion, according to the surveillance reports. That five-minute visit was hastily arranged and required last-minute approval from the Ecuadorian ambassador.

The report also details extensive in-person meetings with two hackers in the June-July timeframe, and the following information is particularly interesting:

The trio of hackers — Assange, Müller-Maguhn and Fix — then gathered on July 14 for more than four hours, according to the security logs. The special counsel’s report indicates that on this date, Russian hackers posing as Guccifer 2.0 sent encrypted files to WikiLeaks, with the title “big archive.”

Then there is this:

Days later, on July 18, while the Republican National Convention kicked off in Cleveland, an embassy security guard broke protocol by abandoning his post to receive a package outside the embassy from a man in disguise. The man covered his face with a mask and sunglasses and was wearing a backpack, according to surveillance images obtained by CNN.

An Ecuadorian security guard, who abandoned his post, receives a package outside the embassy from a man in disguise on July 18, 2016. The man covered his face with a mask and sunglasses and was wearing a backpack.

An Ecuadorian security guard, who abandoned his post, receives a package outside the embassy from a man in disguise on July 18, 2016. The man covered his face with a mask and sunglasses and was wearing a backpack.The security company saw this unfold on surveillance footage and recommended that the guard be replaced. But the Ecuadorian government kept him on the job.

On that same day, according to the Mueller report, WikiLeaks informed the Russian hackers that it had received the files and was preparing to release them soon. It’s not clear if these incidents are related, and the contents of the package delivered to the embassy are unknown.

The outlines of what happened are really coming into focus. Assange was clearly working in close coordination with the Kremlin and Russian state-sponsored media. It’s implausible that he didn’t know the provenance of the hacked material. It seems clear that he was a key and witting part of Russia’s effort to throw the election to Trump.

This is a completely different kind of activity than exposing governmental or elite wrongdoing. It is siding with a foreign and hostile intelligence agency and government against one American political party. This is not something that can be justified on the basis of WikiLeaks’ supposed principles.

Why I Split from Netroots Nation and Why I Can’t Go Back

The conference is basically indifferent to whether its positions are tenable for Democratic candidates in most contested districts and states.

There’s a saying that has worldwide currency: “When America sneezes, the world catches a cold.”  Supposedly, legendary Austrian diplomat Klemens von Metternich originated the phrase during the Napoleonic Era, but in his version it was Europe that caught a cold when France sneezed. In the African-American community, the phrase has undergone a modification: “when white folks catch a cold, black folks get pneumonia.” Both versions became fairly popular during the financial crisis of 2007-2008 as the repercussions of the collapsed housing bubble reverberated out from the floor of the Wall Street stock exchange to shake both the global economy and American neighborhoods of color.

I think there’s another widely shared saying that applies to the black community: “a canary in a coal mine.”  Canaries are more sensitive to carbon monoxide than humans and therefore can serve as an early warning signal. Beginning in the early 20th-Century, coal miners began bringing canaries to work with them in the hope that the birds would tip them off to dangerous leaks in time for them to make an escape.

This was my experience during my time with ACORN in 2004-2005. I was hired to work on the political end, technically as part of the affiliated Project Vote. But the North Broad Street office I worked out of in Philadelphia was primarily occupied with providing basic services to the black community.  Chief among these was help dealing with predatory loans, particularly mortgages that were sold based on confusing or misleading terms that led to ballooning payments down the line that people could not afford.

At the time, I thought the problem was almost wholly that people were being hoodwinked into foreclosure traps, but I didn’t understand why so many loans were being granted to people who clearly couldn’t afford them.  I did not know about mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations so I didn’t get the incentives people had to sell as many mortgages as possible with no regard for whether they’d result in default. All I knew back then was that it was a gigantic problem in the black community and ACORN was acting as an advocate for people who were desperate to avoid losing their homes. The housing crisis was brought on by the collapse of credit standards, but before the investors in bad debt got burned, the black community suffered the consequences. If I had known to look, this would have tipped me off to the larger catastrophe to come.

I left ACORN at the beginning of 2005 to start a blogging community called Booman Tribune (now known as Progress Pond). It was run on the same platform that Daily Kos was using at the time. I became a member of Daily Kos on March 25, 2004 and I began publishing my own writing there that year in the free time I had when I wasn’t doing my work organizing Montgomery County, Pennsylvania for Project Vote.  From the beginning, my site attracted people who were at least somewhat dissatisfied with Daily Kos, but I saw the two sites as basically part of the same movement. We were mainly concerned with three things. We wanted to end the war in Iraq; we wanted to push back against a supine media that was far too intimidated after the 9/11 attacks to hold the Bush administration to account, and we wanted to inject some spine into the Democratic Party that seemed to be perpetually fighting from a fetal position.

At first, it was enough to be able to push back against Republican lies, critique the Democrats and media, and add our own voices to the conversation. Many people who had been impotently shouting at their television sets felt suddenly empowered by the new blogging medium and the free publishing and ready-made audiences we were providing. But soon we decided to take it to another level.

The transformation began in Las Vegas, Nevada. From June 8–11, 2006, the Daily Kos community and some other fellow travelers held the inaugural Yearly Kos convention. It was a magical time for most of the attendees. Many people put their pseudonymous user names on their name tags because we only “knew” each other from the virtual space of the Daily Kos website. All across the convention center, there were expressions of joy as people were able to put a user name to a real name and face for the first time. There were politicos and professional organizers in attendance and on the various panels, but this really was an event for ordinary people who were looking to get politically involved in the real world for the first time.

The conference focused on giving us the tools to do this, but the real magic came from the networking. I don’t know how many political groups and innovations and tactics can be traced back to that first conference, but the list must be considerable. When we left, we felt united and energized for the midterm fight of 2006, which proved to be enormously successful.

In 2007, the Yearly Kos convention was held in Chicago and it had already matured. The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder noted at the time that “YearlyKos has, in two years, outgrown its bonding session phase, it’s ‘Let’s Make Fun Of The Press Stage,’ and even its focus on national activism.” The biggest sign that something had changed was the presence of presidential contenders Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson. They all showed up to participate in a blogger-led forum. The Democratic Party had taken notice, and the convention was populated by hordes of operatives for the first time.

I attended the next two conferences (re-dubbed as Netroots Nation) in Austin (2008) and Pittsburgh (2009). However, when the conference returned to Las Vegas in 2010, I decided that I did not want to have any further involvement. The reason was fairly simple. By that time, a fairly big schism had opened up in the progressive Netroots over the presidency of Barack Obama. From the beginning, my focus had been on winning elections and then supporting the winners. But it became apparent that for much of the progressive online movement, the primary motivator was in challenging power no matter who held it. One day they were spending all their energy challenging Dick Cheney and John Ashcroft and Donald Rumsfeld, and the next they were spending all their energy challenging the administration of Barack Obama.

I certainly understand that impulse. I see the indispensable value in it, too. But I wanted to focus my energy on helping Barack Obama succeed and get reelected, and I discovered that I was spending a lot of my time defending him from unfair attacks from other progressives. I didn’t feel like we were on the same team anymore. I remembered the people I saw and employed at ACORN back in 2004 who were living on a razor’s edge, and I knew they saw things the same way that I did. They supported the president and they believed in him. Given the choice, I was going to side with them and not join the Tea Party in savaging the president.

My concern that the Netroots had lost the narrative seemed to be confirmed in November when the House majority we had helped recruit, vet, fund and elect in 2006 was swept out of power.  For the next decade, I watched the Netroots Nation conference from the sideline. There were things they did that I admired and other things that made me cringe, but their fight was no longer well-aligned with mine.

However, when they finally decided to hold the convention on my home turf of Philadelphia, I decided to show up and see for myself how things have changed. The first thing I noticed was the program they handed me when I registered as a member of the press. They had included two full pages of instructions on how attendees should behave. On the first page, I was informed that “during social events and discussions” I should “keep an empty chair or open space in (my) circle for newcomers to help them feel welcome.” I was told that I should be “thankful when (I) am held accountable” from the people “(I) may have harmed.” There was a lengthy section on “Creating Safer Spaces” that warned me that I “may unintentionally make someone uncomfortable.”

There was another page that explained how I was to interact with people with a disability, “racialized communities,” “transgender/gender nonbinary” people and “Bi/Pan/Fluid/Queer (Bi+)” people. Much of this information was thoughtful and helpful, but these tips were also primarily about how to avoid giving offense.

I noticed a few things that struck me as either kind of inaccessible to the uninitiated or fairly contentious to the majority of voters. For example, I was warned not to “lump BIPOC/Sunkissed peoples into a grouping.” That was the first I had heard of those terms. I was informed to “remember that everything we are doing is on stolen land and these imposed borders hold thousands of distinct Indigenous nations.” I thought perhaps that retelling of history could be slightly more nuanced. I wasn’t sure how many people would agree that if they were accused of racism they should not defend themselves or their actions but “stay calm and listen.” I hadn’t considered it likely that I would face this problem. Along this same line, I was to “accept discomfort” because “equality feels like oppression to those who have lived with privilege.” That is certainly true, but the imperative to accept discomfort didn’t sound too welcoming.

Of course, I understand where all this is coming from. I also understand why they told me not to “gawk” at people who are doing things that are “culturally different,” and to “be positive about all relationships–monogamous, polyamorous, or anything else.” I accept that “It’s polite to ask: ‘What is your name and pronouns,’ before assuming and using pronouns and gendered words.” But there was just something about the overall presentation of these instructions that didn’t sit right with me.

I took some screenshots of the program and sent them to two friends of mine, both of whom I’d describe as to my left in general. The man responded, “it makes you want to bang the inflatable slide emergency exit on the plane, grab a drink, and say ‘fuck you all.'” The woman texted back, “a bunch of amoebas who crawled out of a California fuck-puddle.” I concluded that I wasn’t taking the hardline on these new bylaws.

Truthfully, it’s hard to accurately convey my reaction to reading the program before I had even ventured into the crowd. It seemed like the conference was primarily concerned with educating people on how they should behave and that there were almost infinite opportunities, no matter how unintentionally, to run afoul of the guidelines. But this didn’t actually worry me for personal reasons. I don’t generally give unintended offense and I don’t beat myself up about doing unintended things. I was more concerned about why all the focus was on issues that have no direct relationship with winning elections. I was also wondering what my old acquaintances at ACORN would think about the new nomenclature and rules about the usage of words. In my experience, the most marginalized people in Philadelphia were focused on getting the police to clean up drug corners and City Hall to install new traffic lights. They were trying not to lose their homes to foreclosure and to avoid losing the public pool and local library branch. All this stuff in the program seemed pretty far afield from their concerns, and I could only imagine how it would play outside the progressive cocoon of the conference.

I decided to attend my first panel discussion: NEVER GIVE UP: LESSONS FROM THE MOVE FAMILY.

For those of you who are not from Philadelphia, you may not be familiar with the MOVE family. Somewhat amazingly, the best explanation I could find online was published in Teen Vogue in May 2019. In 1985, the city of Philadelphia dropped two bombs on this family’s rowhouse, setting fire to gasoline stored on their roof, and burning down an entire city block of sixty homes. All but one of the family members were killed, totaling six adults and five children.

But the real story began seven years earlier when the police tried to evict the MOVE family from a separate home and a police officer was shot dead. To this day, the MOVE family insists that they did not have any functioning guns in the house and that the officer died as a result of friendly fire. There are apparently some witnesses who support this version of events, but a jury did not hear from them and convicted nine members of the household to lengthy jail sentences.

In the 1970’s and 1980’s, MOVE’s problems originated with the fact that they were the world’s worst neighbors. They created smelly compost piles, brandished guns, and used loudspeakers and a bullhorn to blast “profanity-laced political diatribes” in the middle of the night.

“MOVE was a pain in the neck for 25 hours a day,” a neighbor whose house had been burned in the [1985] fire told *The New York Times* in 1996. “But we didn’t believe the police should have come in here like it was World War III. Those children in that house weren’t criminals.”

Under the notoriously racist mayorship of Frank Rizzo, the family was characterized as terrorists even though they espoused a nonviolent philosophy based on back-to-the-Earth principles. Yet, when they were blamed for killing a cop, the debate about them was mostly decided.

The bombing in 1985 was more socially and politically complicated. By that time, Rizzo had been replaced by Philadelphia’s first black mayor, Wilson Goode. The black community understandably took pride in Goode and it didn’t rally to MOVE’s side when they were bombed. Had Rizzo bombed them, the reaction would have been much different. As one of the panelists said, the city would have rioted like after Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated.

Either way, bombing the rowhouse was not the first option.

Clashes with their new neighbors and with law enforcement ensued. In May 1985, following over a year of surveillance, police obtained arrest warrants for four of the house’s occupants, including Ramona Africa, who as a result went on to serve seven years in prison.

After evacuating the surrounding neighborhood, nearly 500 cops showed up on May 13, to serve warrants and attempt to clear the building using water cannons and tear gas.

A gun battle broke out between authorities and those inside. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the fire department blasted the house with 1,000 gallons of water a minute for nearly six hours. Police responded to MOVE’s gunfire by throwing smoke grenades and firing at least 10,000 rounds of ammunition at the house.

If you’re following along here, you’ll realize that Ramona Africa’s entire family was killed by the Philadelphia police department and then she was sent to prison. There were all kinds of investigations and recriminations in the aftermath of this tragedy, but no one was ever held accountable. Even the burned-out homeowners who shared a block with the MOVE family never got justice. Philadelphia became a national joke and the subject of late night punch lines. And Wilson Goode was reelected.

What’s important to realize is that while virtually no one thought the police department acted reasonably or responsibly, there were also almost no people who thought well of the MOVE family. For many, they were cop killers. For others, they were dangerous radicals who shot at police rather than surrender to lawfully obtained arrest warrants. Still others saw them simply as a weird cult, which is pretty hard to contest if you look at their belief system. And, of course, to their immediate neighbors, they had been “a pain in the neck for 25 hours a day” whose poor decisions had led to the destruction of their homes.  To say they had few allies in the Philadelphia metro area would be a gross understatement.

But here they were at the Netroots Nation conference presenting their very one-sided version of history and pitching their philosophy of eating only raw vegetables. I wondered who was responsible for agreeing to this panel and whether the candidates who would be attending the conference were prepared to be attacked by the right for guilt by association.

Nonetheless, the panel was very interesting. I was actually quite impressed with all four of the panelists in their own way. Megan Malachi of Philly REAL Justice was particularly engaging. Charismatic and highly intelligent, I agreed with the vast majority of what she had to say and was intrigued by her perspective on a variety of issues. Most compelling, however was the perspective of Michael Africa Jr. whose story is unlike any I have ever heard. His mother was eight months pregnant with him when she was arrested in 1978. Michael was born in prison and separated from his mother shortly thereafter. He was only recently reunited with her and his father when they were released in 2018.

The most riveting moment of the discussion came when someone asked Michael to share something personal about his experience being reunited with his parents. He spoke of a piece of furniture in his hallway where he sometimes sits in the morning before work. He was sitting there one day a few weeks after his mother moved in with him when she came out of her bedroom in bare feet. At that moment, he realized that he was seeing his mother’s feet for the first time. As his friend put it, he was learning things about his mother at 40 years of age that most people learn as babies.

As poignant as moments like this were, much of what the panel wanted to discuss could have been appropriately handled by any number of other activists, organizers or academics. In fact, the most interesting elements of the presentation that weren’t historical or personal in nature, were all about broader themes than anything particular to the MOVE family. I came away personally impressed with the presenters but still mystified about why a conference that is supposed to be about political outcomes was allowing this family and its defenders to have an unchallenged forum to argue that they’d been wrongly imprisoned after the 1978 death of a police officer and to pitch their idiosyncratic philosophy.  Part of me felt grateful that James O’Keefe was otherwise occupied that day at the White House Social Media Summit.

The general feel of the convention was also unfamiliar. Gone were the pseudonymous name tags and the Daily Kos users meeting in real life for the first time. Virtually everyone in attendance came with some kind of agenda and were already linked to some preexisting organization.  There were still plenty of sessions dedicated to the grunt work of politics, from working with voter files to drawing good district maps to harnessing data from field work to making sure that our elections are secure.  There were panels on turning out the youth vote and winning back blue collar voters. The problem was that at least the white blue collar voters would be “banging the inflatable slide emergency exit on the plane” rather than joining this political movement.

On Saturday, the main event arrived when presidential contenders Kirsten Gillibrand, Julian Castro, Elizabeth Warren, and Jay Inslee appeared (in that order) in a candidate forum in the main ballroom. Of the three, only Warren has much of a pulse in the polls, and she really could not have had a better performance. While the others received a somewhat enthusiastic response, Warren entered to a thunderous ovation. She was completely relaxed, dealt with surprises and interruptions with impromptu and off-the-cuff humor that brought the house down, and was flawlessly conversant and responsive on the issues. She easily outclassed the others, although both Gillibrand and Castro were impressive and well-received. Gillibrand might have made news by immediately endorsing reparations, but that would require the media caring enough about her campaign to make it into a controversy. Meanwhile, Castro agreed that ICE should be abolished, which was a crowdpleaser in the hall, but obviously a more dubious position to carry into a general election against Trump.  There weren’t very many people around to hear what Jay Inslee had to say because as soon as Warren finished there was a humiliating mass exodus from the hall. Perhaps people were just hungry after sitting through the first three presentations, but it also seemed to send a statement about the lack of interest the Netroots Nation denizens have in another white male president.

I don’t want to give the impression that the conference was a complete freak show because it wasn’t like that at all. I spoke with longtime friend Adam Bonin who informed me that it was the biggest conference they had ever held, and it was extremely well organized with many excellent panels. What it wasn’t, however, was anything close to what it had been in the beginning back in 2006 in Las Vegas.  Daily Kos began as an unapologetically pro-Democratic Party community where ideological fights were discouraged. The biggest influx of users I ever had at Booman Tribune came after founder Markos Moulitsas dismissed the “sanctimonious women’s studies set” who objected to sexist advertising on his site and told them to go find another home. Now the conference he inspired was setting a new standard for sanctimony. It was hard to find much of the original purpose.

For one thing, there was almost no cognizance of how the whole thing worked as a successful political movement. When we started, we wanted tools to help us do what the party and the media were not doing, which was making the case against the Republicans to the American public and winning them over to our side. This conference made some pretenses in that direction, but was basically indifferent to whether their positions were tenable for Democratic candidates in most contested districts and states. They seemed more interested in policing each other than in convincing outsiders. For all the worthy panels on climate change and immigration and gun violence and the rights of disabled people or the LGBTQ community, there was little recognition that beating the Republicans is the first prerequisite for making progress.

I came into the Netroots from the world of community organizing. I know there is an inside game and an outside game. You can organize around issues or you can organize around power. There will always be a role for both. You can try to elect Democrats while also trying to reform the Democratic Party at the same time. That’s how I saw the mission at the start. That’s still how I see the mission. But that’s not a balance I see with Netroots Nation. They are not interested in reforming the system or overly concerned about short-term political consequences. They’re going for revolutionary change, damn the torpedos and full speed ahead.

Ten years ago, I left Netroots Nation when I concluded that they weren’t on my team. I still admire most of the people who run the thing and the vast majority of what they’re trying to do, but I see them as more of a liability in the fight against Trump than an asset. I think back to my job at ACORN and about the people in need that I want to help, and I know that most of them can’t relate to the convention’s culture at all. They’re my canary in a coal mine. I wish I didn’t feel that way, but I do.

Trump is Now So Boldly Racist That the Center is the Left’s for the Taking

The Democrats should be able to just plant themselves on the ground that Trump is ceding and take the White House from him with ease.

Here’s another example of our president abandoning any pretense that he’s the leader of a white nationalist movement.

President Trump on Sunday weighed in on the friction between a group of four freshman Democratic congresswomen and Speaker Nancy Pelosi: He suggested that the congresswomen — none of whom are white — should “go back and help fix” the countries they came from. His message was immediately seized upon by Democrats, who called it a racist trope.

“So interesting to see ‘Progressive’ Democrat Congresswomen, who originally came from countries whose governments are a complete and total catastrophe, the worst, most corrupt and inept anywhere in the world (if they even have a functioning government at all), now loudly and viciously telling the people of the United States, the greatest and most powerful Nation on earth, how our government is to be run,” Mr. Trump wrote on Twitter.

The “Democrat Congresswomen” Trump was referring to are Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14), Ilhan Omar (MN-05), Ayanna Pressley (MA-07) and Rashida Tlaib (MI-13). Now, it’s true that Rep. Omar was born in Mogadishu, Somalia on October 4, 1982, and it seems like Trump’s comments were directed at her. Except he didn’t single her out. He said all four of them should return to their countries of origin.

That won’t be easy for the others to do.  Rep. Pressley was born in Cincinnati, Ohio on February 3, 1974. Rep. Tlaib was born in Detroit, Michigan on July 24, 1976. Rep. Ocasio-Cortez was born in The Bronx, New York City on October 13, 1989.

If we want to go a little deeper, Rep. Tlaib’s parents are Palestinian. Ocasio-Cortez’s mother was born in Puerto Rico but that was and still is part of the United States of America. Pressley’s parents were born in the continental United States. Her family has presumably been here for generations, possibly even many centuries, and certainly longer Trump’s family.

Of course, these distinctions don’t really matter. What the president said was despicable irrespective of the accuracy of his assumptions. I mention them just to provide the full context. He’s treating elected representatives as if they are not even American citizens. He’s saying that their perspectives are foreign and invalid because of their ethnicity.  He’s arguing that they should go represent Palestine, Puerto Rico, and the African countries from which their families originate because their opinions and votes are not welcomed here.

Perhaps part of his intention here is to cause some problems for Speaker Pelosi who has been having a bit of a dispute with the four freshmen. But that’s not really the key political play here. Trump is playing hard to his white nationalist base, fully knowing that every decent person in the country is going to recoil and condemn his remarks. He still sees it as a winning move.

When I say that Trump is abandoning the center, this is a prime example. The Democrats should be able to just plant themselves on the ground that Trump is ceding and take the White House from him with ease. But, they can still blow it if they careen off so far to the left that the center becomes a battleground again.

I’ll have more to say about that when I write up my impressions of the Netroots Nation conference that just concluded in Philadelphia.