Tis my fondest wish.
Toward the end of his new book, “R.I.P. G.O.P.,” the renowned Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg makes a thrilling prediction, delivered with the certainty of prophecy. “The year 2020 will produce a second blue wave on at least the scale of the first in 2018 and finally will crash and shatter the Republican Party that was consumed by the ill-begotten battle to stop the New America from governing,” he writes.
It sounds almost messianic: the Republican Party, that foul agglomeration of bigotry and avarice that has turned American politics into a dystopian farce, not just defeated but destroyed. The inexorable force of demography bringing us a new, enlightened political dispensation. Greenberg foresees “the death of the Republican Party as we’ve known it,” and a Democratic Party “liberated from the nation’s suffocating polarization to use government to advance the public good.” I’d like to believe it, and maybe you would too. But should we?
It’s definitely possible for one of the two major American political parties to be not only defeated in the most decisive manner, but absolutely flattened and decimated so there can be no near-term comeback. This kind of happened to the GOP after the elections 1932 and 1936. In that case, though, the party did not disappear but rather adjusted to life in the near-perpetual minority for the next sixty years. That would probably be a good enough solution to our present problems for me, but I want more.
I want the GOP to go the way of the Whigs and be replaced by something more akin to mainstream European parties of the right. Neither the small nor the large cataclysm is assured at this point though. And the more imperiled the conservatives grip on power becomes, the dirtier they will fight.
Could it be we are approaching a time like 1932 and 1936? There’s a lot of shit needs to get fixed. Lots of folks know this and are looking for a new deal again. People may even begin to think about Trump’s sharpie predicting a hurricane in Alabama or harming the little ones. Enough of that crazy shit. Go to the nut house and let us get on with it.
It would be lovely if the Republican Party was so soundly trounced at the ballot box that it disappears. The problem is, if the Republican Powers That Be have to choose between democracy and the survival of the party, it’s clear what their choice will be. If their choice is between the survival of the party and putting the continuing existence of the U.S.A. as an intact, functioning, sovereign country at risk — well, that’s pretty clear too.
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A very fun post (as usual), but one must counsel against the raising of unreasonable expectations. Usually, modern political movements are only shattered after a colossal Gotterdammerung tears the criminally-administered nation to shreds and completely and thoroughly de-legitimizes whatever political movement brought about the calamity.
American “conservatism” has now crippled the Constitution, wrecked the central government, and poisoned the governments of a large majority of states. It has ruined the 20th Century’s attempt to regulate Robber Baron capitalism—hell, it permitted the RE-CREATION of the Robber Barons on arguably a greater scale than the first Gilded Age! It has destroyed the natural climate and enthusiastically brought about the ongoing Great Extinction of species—other than the human, the rat and the cockroach, of course.
Absent a National Trumpalist nuclear war (which is a distinct possibility every single day the deranged Trumper sits in the WH), the avenues for Gotterdammerung are economic and environmental. But the failed corporate media does not even cover the looming climate calamity, and couldn’t see the forest for the trees even if the pretty talking heads wanted to. Thus we see wall-to-wall coverage of unprecedented hurricanes (for example) without the slightest big picture environmental context. Extreme weather is a godsend to the useless “news” divisions of the corporate media. And in any event, the “conservative” movement has insulated itself from any blame for its nihilistic (and now enthusiastic) destruction of the 11,000 year old stable climate. The Dems themselves will hardly name names!
“Conservatism” has placed the economy into the hands of the New Robber Barons to run as they see fit, while the federal government is placed into an unsustainable (and probably irretrievable) fiscal position. For over 40 years, Repubs have subversively run the exact opposite of responsible macroeconomic policy (cutting taxes in expansions while fighting increased spending in recessions), and when the next recession hits the question will be how much can a modern government conceivably borrow? Because heaven forfend that we stop spending $1 trillion annually on Our Bloated Military(tm). At some point the value of a currency as abused as the US dollar must decline–i.e. calamitous inflation, and refusal to hold the failed government’s debt—the deaththroes of the Confederacy. It may indeed be that the social fabric of the US has been so frayed and the racial hatreds so stoked by National Trumpalism that the next (serious) recession causes the paralyzed government, treasury and currency to collapse. If that failure could successfully be laid at the door of “conservatism” then perhaps the necessary annihilation of this pernicious, braindead movement called “conservatism” could come about.
But again, with the appearance of The 46% (who demonstrated complete failure as democratic citizens), calamity is a necessary condition.
Heh! His base seems to be continually expanding. The more lies and outrageous conduct he displays the more they loves the idiot. But perhaps there is a silent majority to stop this crazy man. Let us hope.
Unfortunately, as you know, our failed Constitution permits a political minority to effectively control the federal government, whatever a majority (silent or vocal) might wish or express. Der Trumper lost the popular vote by over 3 millions, yet is permitted to “govern” as though he won a mandate and (somehow) represents the “will of the people”. But of course the Constitution can never be wrong, and “states” have more claim to representation than people….fortuitous political entities which are nothing more than the lingering phantoms of British colonial rule, drawn up as matters of pure geography over three centuries ago.
The dirty secret of 21st Century TrumpAmerica is that the federal government does not have the consent of the governed–the actual citizenry. The Gravedigger of Democracy (aka Moscow Mitch) and his plutocrat backers rely entirely on Bread and Circuses, just as the Roman emperors did. And we happily eat the crappy bread and cheer the lame circuses….
The base is the base. But the fringe is the fringe, and Trump lost it that in the 2018 elections (which is why we had a “Blue Wave” election).
Trump’s base is going to stay with him, just as Nixon’s did, just as Hoover’s did. But all available evidence suggests that not only is his base not expanding, but that his base has never expanded beyond the minority that was enough to get him elected in 2016.
Barring some radical change in the political climate, there’s already a majority (some silent, some outspoken) opposed to Trump. The challenge is keeping enough of that majority together to overcome the anti-democratic features (electoral college, voter suppression, foreign money, etc.) arrayed against the majority.
A Rasmussen poll on Friday gave Trump a 46% approval rating. I think that was the vote tally in 2016. So no matter what he does he seems to hang on. I think the economy is important here. If those tariffs eventually hurt the economy or cause the middle class to pay a thousand dollars each, as some say, that could cause a shift. Or, for that matter, if the economy turns down for some other reason, the approval rating could change. But Trump knows this and he will move to eliminate the tariff if he must. Meanwhile Nancy sits and does nothing on impeachment or immigration or his personal thievery and we watch talk about backfilling to cover the money Trump spent on his wall. So will the democrats accommodate him?
That’s the upper bound of Trump’s approval, though. His RCP average is 43% and his 538 average is 41%.
The remarkable aspect is that his approval has (more or less) never shifted, aside from a very brief honeymoon period surrounding his inaugural.
And that is the scary part. After all the lies, his approval rating remains stubbornly high. He is looking for a repeat of 2016.
I fear the Russian attack on our election system will be even greater in 2020, given the success they had in 2016 and the lack of action on the part of the GOP-dominated Senate. I grew up with big-city machine politics, but the Russian involvement in our elections gives dirty politics a whole new meaning.
With the arrival of the virtual videos which cannot be detected and which will flood the smart phones of our 21st Century Borg, the Post-Truth world has well and truly arrived. We don’t call him Moscow Mitch for nothing!
Two major factors combined to create the 1932-36 wipeout of the Republican party: 1) 3+ years of the Great Depression under Republican rule, indelibly stamping responsibility for it on the GOP (unlike the Great Recession when Dems took power just a year after it started, and so bore the brunt of voters’ wrath in 2010); and 2) the fact that Congressional reapportionment based on the 1920 census did not happen until 1932 (nativists and prohibitionists combined to block it so as to hold onto power).
If the ongoing demographic wave (every year 3 million disproportionately older, whiter, wealthier Americans dies, and 4 million disproportionately younger, browner, poorer Americans become eligible to vote) combines with 1) a “Trump” recession/scandal of major proportions, and 2) a steely determination by Democrats to small ‘d’ democratic rule (e.g., abolish the Senate filibuster, reform the federal courts to allow a Democratic judicial majority, a reinvigorated voting rights act that sets high federal standards and penalizes states that attempt to undermine them, etc.), then maybe we get Greenberg’s collapse of the Republican party.
Practically speaking, this probably means a tricky three-point turn by Dems that simultaneously 1) peels away (some) white suburban voters, 2) recaptures (some) working and middle-class rural and small-town white voters, and 3) increases Latino turnout and support across the South and Southwest. Not easy to pull off, but the kind of change (and unlikely coalition) that’s necessary for prolonged electoral dominance.
As for creating a European-style center-right party, that’s a challenge for center-right Americans. Their job is made more difficult by our current electoral system that provides strong institutional incentives for two majority-seeking parties (as opposed to 3-8 parties that can aspire to form governing coalitions of varying configurations). How do you create a non-racist platform for a center-right party in a nation where 1/4 or more of the electorate wants to advance a racist agenda? That’s a tough problem to solve; I wish them well.
“where 1/4 or more of the electorate wants to advance a racist agenda?”
And where that share of the electorate makes up 2/3rds of “your” voters, ha-ha! Yes, we wish them well….they have played with fire and now the house is engulfed in flames.
Changing attitudes like this requires 25% unemployment, bread (hamburger?) lines, 18% inflation over several years, or Russian tanks in the streets of a bombed-out Berlin. And even then it likely only shuts a country’s Deplorables up, not change their minds….
To add another depressing note to the list: over the past decade, centrist Republicans have failed woefully at forming a cohesive and (at least somewhat) powerful caucus within their party. It’s the most under-reported story in Washington politics.
How and why did, for example, Sens. Alexander, Collins, Gregg, Lugar, Murkowski, Snowe, Specter, & Voinovich (you could make your own list) fail to form their own version of a “Blue Dog” caucus, with an agreed upon agenda/platform, and then use their collective power to negotiate votes with McConnell and Reid? They could have blocked McConnell’s expansion of the filibuster, passed treaties, won greater concessions from Democrats on the Recovery Act, the ACA, and other major legislation, won funding and jobs and special projects for their states and constituents.
More importantly, they could have placed clear and strong limits to the power of the racist/reactionary faction of the Republican party, pulling the whole party to the center, or at least, pushing the most extremist elements of the right’s agenda off of the party’s platform.
I fear that, because the centrists haven’t spent the past decade doing that work that it’s going to be all the harder over the next decade to move them, and the nation, forward.
Here is a less optimistic view of 2020.
Valid points, but the article was written before the 2018 elections and is kind of out of date now. There was more realignment in 2018 than had been expected by professional pollsters.
I’m not too sure about rural or small town help in any turnaround. In fact I think this is where Trump gets his continued strength. But I do think there are saner people living in the suburbs and cities who may have reached an end to their tolerance for the Idiot in Chief and who understand that Mitch and Donnie are not going to solve their problems, including the never ending trade wars and manipulation of the stock market. There is now a greater likelihood for another recession and higher prices resulting from his genius in fixing tariffs. Plus the never ending escalation in health care and education costs and the impending environmental crisis. Should this continue …….
Thanks for your response. Martin has written extensively on the reasons winning back some significant portion of white, small-town/rural voters is important for Democrats—both nationally and in states like Pennsylvania. Basically, Trump won in 2016 because rural white voters in MI, OH, PA, WI started voting more like their counterparts in AL, GA, MS, SC. If Democrats can persuade them to go back to voting like they did in, say, 2008, then that’s an enormous step towards winning not only the presidency, but also control of several state legislatures.
That doesn’t mean Dems need to win 51% of the vote in, for example, central PA. It’s enough for them to win 40% of the vote in counties like Cambria, Clearfield, Cameron, Centre, and Clinton…instead of the 20-30% they won in 2016. (All numbers approximate. Happy to be proven wrong. Read Martin’s earlier work on this since I’m basically regurgitating what I remember of it.)
We can only hope, but I highly doubt Republicans are going to disappear as a political force anytime soon. For one thing, they control all the levers of power in way too many states.
My fear is more that the Republican party is rapidly morphing itself into a full-on fascist party. Fascists, in general, aren’t very concerned about who votes for them- what they care about is making sure they are the ones that count the votes. Right now, Republicans are essentially exploring what they can get away with in terms of undermining our democracy to maintain power. And, it turns out, due to the archaic nature of our constitution that disproportionately gives their rural, white nationalist base way more power than they would otherwise have in a one person, one vote system, and (aside from a handful of never trumpers) also having an ideologically unified, authoritarian worshiping membership that values power over process, it is way more than anyone should be comfortable with. Partisan gerrymandering, discriminatory voter ID rules, and unlimited dark money have all now become the new normal for Republicans. How far away do you think stuffing the ballot box, bribing officials, or forcibly blocking people from polling stations is for them? Not much of a stretch, in my mind.
“Conservatives” have painted themselves into a corner and full-on fascism is their only remaining option. They cannot convince a national majority of their failed shit-ideas through argument, hence the undermining of all democratic processes and reliance/reinforcing of all anti-democratic ones is mandatory. They have known this for well over a decade and thus the long-term assault on all democratic mechanisms by the Gravedigger of Democracy, McConnell.
Of course, because of corollaries to Godwin’s Law or simple ownership by plutocrats, the useless corporate media cannot explain the problem in these terms, and in any event the internet has reduced them to second banana status. Right wing radicalism is now self-reinforcing.
But as you imply, authoritarian fascist movements historically do not surrender the power they have “won” through (failed) democratic means, and National Trumpalism will be no exception. Hell, Der Trumper is already very clearly laying the groundwork for refusing to accept a national election in which he is defeated. That will be another curious situation for our failed national media….and Democrats.
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I think it is possible, and that the likelihood is almost impossible to determine. Besides national elections, there would need to be a lot of movement in state governor and legislature elections. If that ball got rolling, though, I can see the GOP reduced to the sort of role it now has in California – the nominal opposition, and not much more than that. Prosperity would return.
I’d love to see the Republican party wiped out as much as anybody, but a “Blue Wave” comparable to 2018 in 2020 wouldn’t even come close. They might even still be in control of the Senate, and barring court-packing (which would get savaged by the media) they’ll still be in control of the courts. Certainly there would be nothing that couldn’t be rolled back in 2022 with a 2010-style backlash. We had two powerful Blue Waves in 2006 and 2008 and look where we ended up.
Given the ongoing demographic changes a repeat wave could be a indicator that a wipeout is in the Republican party’s future, but I’d estimate it would still have 10 years or so before it really started to face getting shut out of national power. For a wipeout now, we’d need a third Blue Wave in 2022.
That’s my timeline. I think they can make this “coalition” of theirs last another 10 years or so. Worst thing is over those 10 years I similarly expect them to get more radical, more anti-democratic, and more explicitly racist. When the bottom does fall out it’s going to be pretty dramatic. It’ll kind of be like Virginia rather than California. Dems won 45% in 2004, to 53% in 2008. R’s rode counter wave to win back governorship in 2009. Then in 2012 R’s mount attempted comeback but still lose the state, candidates at state level get more extreme and come close to winning (2013 governorship) but no cigar, in 2014 Warner almost loses, but now R’s are not going to win it back, at least federally.
So, do we even make it past the 10? Idk. If it wasn’t for climate change I’d be pretty hopeful.
I agree. 2018 was decent. 2020 may be a good one.
But 2022 is the election that may matter most, in the long-term.
Here’s a post from another blog that I read that states exactly this, from just before the 2018 election. Written by a former Republican. Definitely worth a read, as is his entire blog.
https://www.politicalorphans.com/the-most-important-election-of-our-lifetimes-2022/
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