The Democratic Party presidential debate in Houston, Texas mercifully only lasted one night and had a manageable 10 participants instead of 20. This is progress.
Among the participants, seven are current or former members of Congress, two are current or former mayors (Pete Buttigieg and Julian Castro), two are former members of Obama’s cabinet (Joe Biden and Castro) and one (Andrew Yang) has no political experience whatsoever. Including Biden, the senators were Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Amy Klobuchar. Beto O’Rourke served in the House of Representatives. What’s most notable, especially at a time when the public has such a low regard for our elected officials in Washington, DC, is the complete lack of current or former governors. However implausible some of their campaigns may have been, the 2016 Republican field included current and former governors Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Jim Gilmore of Virginia, Jeb Bush of Florida, John Kasich of Ohio, and Chris Christie of New Jersey.
The Democratic governors who announced this year have either dropped out already (John Hickenlooper of Colorado and Jay Inslee of Washington) or failed to qualify for the debate because of their lack of support (Steve Bullock of Montana). Maybe this has something to do with the different ways Democrats and Republicans think about the federal government, but it’s still a somewhat unexpected development.
One of the consequences is that Thursday’s debate had a different feel from most presidential primary debates. Normally, a few of the candidates are really angling for a position in the cabinet. But few senators are willing to give up what could be a plum lifetime political position in the Senate to serve a few years in someone else’s administration. Would Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren want to serve in Joe Biden’s cabinet? Would Cory Booker or Kamala Harris?
Julian Castro has already held a cabinet position, so unless he were in line for one of the top prestigious posts at State, Defense or Treasury (and he’s not), he probably has no interest in auditioning to serve again. And it kind of shows.
He launched a blistering and ageist attack on Joe Biden, falsely mischaracterizing what Biden had said about his health care plan and suggesting that he has memory problems. It’s safe to say that he won’t be getting any job interviews from Biden if the former vice-president secures he nomination.
So, who up on the stage might serve in an eventual Democratic cabinet? I think the most likely candidate is Pete Buttigieg. As a veteran, he could be tapped to head Veterans Affairs. He might be suitable for some of the other low-level posts. I’m not sure Andrew Yang is clearly qualified to run any federal agency, but he could find a job in some capacity.
Some of the candidates might wind up on the ticket either through choice or perceived necessity. Cory Booker seems like he might wind up on Biden’s shortlist. In general, it doesn’t seem like the greatest idea to have two senators running on the ticket, so I don’t know how likely it is to see other combinations (e.g., Warren-Klobuchar, Sanders-Harris). It could be that one of the governors makes it onto the ticket, although I’m not sure which Democratic governor would really make sense in that role.
There was a lot of talent on the stage, and a lot of folks who should make up the future of the party, but I think it’s possible that only the eventual nominee will wind up serving in the next administration, assuming Trump isn’t reelected.
I guess that won’t be that odd when I consider that only Ben Carson among Trump’s competitors wound up serving in his cabinet. In this case, though, it seems like it would be squandering a lot of potential. The candidates on the stage in Houston could form a very formidable government if they were willing to put egos and ambition aside and work together. I just don’t see that happening.
This post is like Biden has some sort of chance to win the nomination, he does not. Castro accused Biden of forgetfulness….because Biden is OBVIOUSLY in cognitive decline, and cannot remember conversations two minutes old.
Everyone on stage is politely waiting for Biden to shuffle off (it will be sooner than later) the stage, to see who gets his votes. Castro finally had had enough pretending.
https://theconcourse.deadspin.com/joe-biden-is-a-doddering-old-mummy-with-a-skull-full-of-1838094396
The guy is toast.
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God I hope so. If we put Biden up against Trump we’re so fucked. Biden’s exactly 64% as impressive and capable as Hillary Clinton in every area of overlap and–unlike most of the other Dem candidates–he brings no other areas into play. How anyone can think he’ll do as well as she did is beyond me.
Well, I guess he does bring his gender, which is meant to be enough to win over some disaffected Trump voters. Other’n that, his entire pitch is ‘Republicans are reasonable enough to compromise with _white_ Obama.”
“I promise no changes people will notice” should be his campaign motto, grey is his color, tepid is his emotion.
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Whoa. The transcript in your linked article is brutal.
It’s time to be brutal. Here’s Lawyers, Guns, and Money,
http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2019/09/sir-this-is-an-arbys
Read the link in that article.
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If you’ve been following along, I’ve been telling you forever that Biden is the favorite and that Sanders began in the second strongest position. I predicted a third would emerge to challenge them, and that is Warren. I think, as I wrote two days ago, that Warren is currently slightly better positioned than Sanders, so I’d put the odds on 1. Biden 2. Warren 3. Sanders [Distant] 4. Someone else.
The idea that Biden will show convince people he has dementia is probably wishful thinking on your part. But his age and sputtering performances are probably his biggest weaknesses, albeit hard to exploit by his two main rivals since they also are up in years.
It might just be that Warren is a better retail politician at this point in her career, or that people will decide that she’s a safe enough bet to go against Trump. If that happens, she could win without Biden really faltering at all.
It’s still a toss-up regardless of what you might wish or predict.
Biden just got on a stage and told America that in response to our history of racism, we should have social workers put record players in poor children’s bedrooms so they can hear as many words growing up as richer children do. Let’s not kid around here…..we both know what Biden meant by ‘poor’ when he said this.
And you have him as odds on favorite to win the nomination? Sorry, that’s an incredibly bad take on last night, and on the last three months.
He won’t last until January.
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And arguably, blathering about “record players” is probably the bigger gaffe!
Social workers going into children’s homes is pretty condescending.
Off-topic, but as an Utena fan, I appreciate your Juri Arisugawa icon. I used to use Souji Mikage as my avatar a long time ago.
Some months ago there was an article about Joe in Harpers, not about his senility but about the positions he’d taken some time ago. That one convinced me he was not my guy. His latest performance put him over the edge, likely for most everyone.
Unsurprisingly, the worthless corporate media is spinning that this was Uncle Joe’s strongest performance yet, exactly what his supporters were hoping for!
Is it a facet of the “electability” theory that the best way to beat the deranged ignoramus Trump is to have a Dem prez candidate who creates the same sort of unintelligible word jumbles? Of course, the Biden Brigade’s rejoinder is that Joe is immune from such claims of incoherence by National Trumpalists because “the pot can’t call the kettle black!”. Not too comforting, haha.
We just can’t afford him at this juncture in history. If the democrats follow Trump with someone who loses their way 3 years in it will devastating for us all. Almost a caricature of ‘both sides’.
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You keep telling your self that. I’ve been hearing “He’s toast” since 5 minutes after he launched. Face it. He’s our nominee.
Thanks for your comment, but “Face it. He’s our nominee” is roughly as speculative as “Biden has no chance to win the nomination”.
Biden—understandably for the loyal vice-president of a hugely popular (with Democrats) president—has been all along and remains today the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
He also has noticeable weaknesses as a candidate. I’ve seen analogies to Mondale in 1984 (but weaker), which strike me as reasonable. If I were a gambler, I’d bet the field over Biden…but I’d bet Biden over any other single candidate.
I think Rick Perry is in the cabinet too, and he was a competitor, wasn’t he? But aside from that, there was some great rhetoric last night, not only in the prepared opening and closing but in answers as well. I think that matters for confidence of voters, at least on the Dem side.
5
So, playing along with the Cabinet Game:
Bennet – Education (former Denver supt.), Interior.
Biden – no, but on the bench for special envoy or chairman of a special commission.
Booker – HUD, Attorney General.
Bullock – Interior.
Buttigieg – Veterans Affairs, UN Ambassador.
Castro – Immigration czar, Homeland Security.
Gillibrand – Transportation.
Harris – Attorney General.
Hickenlooper – Interior, Commerce.
Inslee – EPA, Energy, Climate Change czar.
Klobuchar – Agriculture, Commerce.
O’Rourke – Homeland Security, Gun czar.
Sanders – no.
Warren – Domestic policy czar, Treasury.
And one more: the next Democratic president/Congress is going to need to investigate (and go after) the Russian mob, its financiers, and the businesses it controls. Given his work taking down BCCI in the 1980s, can we have John Kerry as the “wise man/chair” of a commission with sweeping powers to investigate and make recommendations on what to do with Deutsche Bank, the Trump Organization, and other tools of the Russian oligarchs? #KerryCommission
I agree with martin that any of the senators would probably be smarter to stay in that job. Inslee is a good call. the pro-fossil fuel Hickenlooper would be terrible for Interior.
Fair disclosure: I’m not backing any horses this time around, and I’m fully going to support the Democratic nominee, period.
But damn, Joe Biden’s answer on reparations was alarming, to say the least.
3.5
One has to wonder what this slog…er, race would look like today had the two elderly white males decided, “Ya know, I might not be able to do this job any more”. Biden and Sanders are soaking up the majority of support (to the extent one can rely on our failed polls), and without them, the progressive and moderate lanes would have been cleared for other candidates, obviously. As it is, the two main progressives have about twice the support of the single “moderate” front-runner, so who knows what the mind of the Dem electorate really thinks—and we won’t find out for months and months. On whom would the “moderate” mantle have fallen absent Biden? Sanders could’ve taken comfort in the fact that he had so completely altered the terms of debate in 2016 that now even the likes of Klobuchar is out there yapping “climate change is an existential crisis!”, when such words didn’t pass her moderate lips as a simple senator.
Biden is (tardily) following a George H. W Bush 1988 campaign model, now bleating “Barack” about as shamelessly as Rudy G. bleats “9/11”. Other than that, whatever his “moderate” status, Uncle Joe’s got no vision and no clear reason to be in this thing, other than that he is convinced he is the Essential (White) Man against a hated-at-historic-levels 42% approval incumbent who doesn’t have the slightest hope of winning the popular vote—unless the electorate thinks his opponent is on the verge of dementia. Greeaaat….
There are plenty of other qualified people out there in progressive circles to run various departments. We need those senators in the Senate to push through the critical health care and global warming legislation. They would be crazy to give up that job, especially when a future Democratic president will need all the support from the Democrats in Congress they can get.
4.5