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How Red States are Turning Blue in the Era of Trump
Discussion
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The voters are there, what you have to do is get them to show up. That’s why, contrary to reports…it IS a turn out election.
You won’t get them to turn out with either Biden or Sanders.
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I know you have an irrational hatred of Bernie Sanders but he’s consistently the most popular candidate of the younger generation (read as voters age sub-40), and he overperforms with Hispanic voters relative to his baseline.
Americans have never elected a POTUS who’s chin is below his nipples.
Sorry, but facts are facts.
Yeah, all seabe’s got is polls, you’ve got _facts_. And all those beautiful presidents …
Also, I don’t necessarily think Sanders would be the best “on balance” because his numbers are outright horrible with old people. Warren has a broad balance and is the second choice of young voters and is probably the strongest, imo. Unless Biden really does have a magic wand and is able to flip lots of Trump voters (the data right now says he can, but I remain skeptical).
I’ve also got a suspended campaign.
One campaign has a policy that the candidate has very few events after sun down ::cough::, another is suspended because of a lack of stamina.
It’s about turn out. Biden will tank turn out from young people, particularly when he starts telling them to lower their jungle music and get off his lawn. Sanders will destroy African American turn out…..it might not be in polls, but they know EXACTLY what both out them are.
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What I find interesting is that Houston, DFW, Atlanta and Phoenix are all major transport hubs with no price disadvantages for travel in comparison to the coasts. That means that they are attractive metro areas for large companies (before you even get to real estate prices and existing workforce). I’ve always thought that the two most effective things that can be done to fight the rural reddening is to a) pass legislation to increase workforce mobility (Obamacare is a good example) and b) invest in transportation infrastructure that makes travel to mid-size non-coastal cities competitive with travel between the metropolises.… Read more »
This is a fascinating comment. I had intuited the benefit of Obamacare to mobility but not connected it with liberal to red migration. And I certainly hadn’t considered your second point.
Playing around with 270towin.com’s 2020 electoral college map reinforces how much of an existential threat this red-to-blue transition would be for the GOP. 1) If Dems win AZ, GA, & TX, then they have an electoral college even if Republicans retain MI, PA, & WI. 2) If Dems win AZ, GA, & TX, they can also lose the remaining older, whiter, blue-to-red states—ME, MN, & NH—and still have an electoral college majority (albeit a very slim one). 3) All of this assumes FL remains a red (or at least, purple) state. None of this reflects the House (and therefore, electoral… Read more »
Saw this anecdotally with my high school and college classmates. A fair number left snowy Western NY for warmer climes. Most of us having done okay for ourselves (thanks, NY taxes!), there are very few orange shitgibbon supporters in my cohort.