Writing in the Guardian, Robert Reich sounds kind of stupid suggesting that there is a real possibility that as many as twenty Republican senators will vote to convict President Trump and remove him from office.
House Democrats will vote to impeach, but will Senate Republicans vote to convict? Until now that seemed implausible. Democrats hold 47 Senate seats. If they all vote to convict, 20 Republicans would have to join them in order to have the necessary two-thirds of the Senate.
What was implausible is now possible. If the vote were held in secret, says Republican strategist Mike Murphy, 30 Republicans would vote today for impeachment. Former Republican senator Jeff Flake puts the likely number at 35.
I’d like to believe that Trump would certainly be convicted in a secret vote. However, I’m not certain that that is true, and the vote isn’t going to be secret. Anyone voting to convict is going to have to face the consequences. And that means that they’ll have to be convinced either that they can survive politically or that they really don’t care if they don’t.
There are certainly a few Republican senators who could survive such a vote, and some of them may be safe from a primary challenge by the time they have to decide. A few others are retiring, and we’ve seen how those who are retiring are much more willing to criticize the president. It’s not clear, however, that some of the people Reich identifies, like Susan Collins of Maine and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, can win reelection without the enthusiastic support of the Republican base. Even if most of the voters in their states strongly support conviction, they may calculate that they can’t improve their chances by bucking Trump’s supporters.
I think conviction is possible, but it will have to involve some behind-the-scenes coordination. The worst vote for a Republican senator is a vote to convict that isn’t upheld by their colleagues. However, there is safety in numbers, and if Trump is removed so will be most of his mystique and appeal to Republican voters. So, if he goes down, it will probably look like a snowball effect, with more and more senators joining to convict as it becomes clear that removal is a real possibility. This obviously will not happen unless the ball gets rolling. So, the first requirement is that a few senators go on the record. Until then, I am not hopeful.
If you’re a R congressman or senator, it makes far more sense to stick with Trump. If you stick with him, then there is at least a chance that the next election will only be moderately bad. If you vote to convict, than at worst you become a pariah, and at best you go into the election with a split party, which ensures a disastrous showing. Even if they do manage to band together as a group to convict, there will be a large portion of their base that will be infuriated.
There’s simply no way to believe these Repub moles that 30(!) of the Gravedigger of Democracy’s “conservatives” would vote to convict, if only there were a secret ballot. Brave, Brave Sir “Conservative”! But this chatter is mostly for credulous “independent” consumption, so they can continue to believe the ridiculous fantasy that their Repub senator “isn’t really that bad”. So the Repub intel being spouted here is most likely (non-disprovable) disinformation, worth shit.
As you say, the whisperings of sanity are meaningless because there is no secret impeachment ballot. And with the rise of social media, which white “conservatives” are just as addicted to as anyone, and the good ol’ email chain for the elderly, a quailing Repub senator receives a tsunami of hate if s/he utters a syllable of the mildest criticism of the lawbreaking Trumper.
So no, Brave Repub Patriots, it never will be “safe” to uphold the Constitution and protect the nation from a pathological lawbreaking nutjob. And since you’ve spent the past 20 years doing everything you could to wreck American democracy and entrench your (illegitimate) political power, why on earth would you stop now?
Judging by the sound of the rather dull thud the Mueller report has had on almost everyone, no chance. Maybe murder on fifth avenue but even then…….What the hell, all is fair in politics so why not bribe them to get your man. Even Zelensky is on the case now. Subpoena for Pompeo and Rudy? Com’on a joke right? Carry on.
Well, the thing is, Trump in his own toxic ideology and personality has completely corrupted anyone who has had touched him or used him for their own gain, and he makes sure that they remember it.
Take Romney for instance. He can preen and pretend to make a statement, but we all remember that he sat across the table from a Trump who was smiling like the Cheshire Cat, while Romney looked broken and destroyed, meekly asked to be Secretary of State, thinking he ever had a chance with a man like Trump, knowing of his last betrayals.
Or Ted “vote your conscience” Cruz. What was he doing a few weeks later? Oh right, he was dialing voters for Trump, who made sure it was documented with a picture of his sullen face for everyone to see.
And now he’s made sure we look into Mike Pence’s “great phone calls”. Pompeo is guilty. Perry is guilty. Ron Johnson is guilty. Giuliani is guilty, Barr is guilty, Sessions (see leaked emails of his compromise to Russia) is guilty. They are all fucking guilty. They’re a criminal enterprise.
If they are to break, they will need to sustain major damage. Consistent 35% job approval damage. They’ll lose the Senate at that number. But they’d definitely have to arrange it so Pence resigns first in order to prevent Pelosi from being president.
Oh look, as I was saying about poor old Rick Perry:
Scoop: Trump pins Ukraine call on Energy Secretary Rick Perry
To answer Martin’s headline question, I think the answer is pretty clearly “no”.
There’s a (slim) possibility that voting to convict Trump is a “least worst” available option for Republican senators, and that gets him removed from office. If there’s polling that shows Republicans do better with Pence as president, if there’s polling that shows a critical mass of senators stand a better chance of re-election with Pence at the top of the ticket and if they’ve voted to convict Trump, then Trump will be gone.
It’s just really hard to see how that critical mass comes together. A first step would be some combination of the most vulnerable senators on the 2020 ballot (Collins, Gardner, McSally) and the least vulnerable senators (e.g., Murkowski, Romney) telling McConnell they’ll block all judicial nominations unless there’s a fair and open impeachment trial in the Senate.
A next step would be if a group of “red state” senators—Perdue (GA), Ernst (IA), Tillis (NC)—start to flip.
Interestingly, if an impeachment “wave” starts building among voters, McConnell & Cornyn who are two of the most senior/powerful members of the Republican caucus are among those who might feel electoral pressure.
And that gives you some idea of how unlikely Trump’s conviction is: even if all 10 of those senators “flip”, then that’s only half the number needed to remove Trump from office.
Fortunately, that’s their problem, not ours. Our problem is how to organize broadly and deeply enough that these theoretical discussions become actual political problems for Republicans in conservative states and districts.
Interesting thought experiment. I would’ve thought that the most likely pool of Repub “convict” votes would be those Repubs who are NOT up for re-election in 2020, since those that are (like Collins) cannot risk infuriating the (highly united) base of white deplorables. There’s no electoral college for senators: Dem voters presumably aren’t voting for one of these Repub turds however they vote on impeachment, and a Trump-betraying Repub would need a lot of swinging independents to make up for the loss of enraged National Trumpalists….
It’s not safe for any of them and they’re going to have to see it in their own personal interest (above their political one tbh) to impeach/remove if they are to do it. “He’s losing sense of reality”, etc.
Remember, the firebreathers haven’t forgotten about Thom Tillis’s betrayal, as he voiced one day opposition to the National Emergency, only to vote for it later anyway. Yet, his approval lags Trump’s by a wide margin, and that’s solely because R’s see him as a traitor.
Thanks for your comment. Collins has regularly won elections with a significant chunk of Dem and Dem-leaning voters. Her vote for Kavanaugh seems to have been the straw that broke that camel’s back, and her popularity ratings have cratered. She’s also not popular with the right wing of her party.
ME, CO, and AZ are all “purple” states where Republicans need centrist votes to win. If centrists are pro-impeachment/conviction, that puts pressure on Collins, Gardner, and McSally.
Murkowski and Romney fit (I think) your first category: senators not on the 2020 ballot and with a political base that’s demonstrated they either don’t care much about loyalty to Trump or actually prefer having a senator who’s somewhat independent.
Here’s Wikipedia’s entry on the 2020 US Senate races: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections
We agree (I think) it’s extremely unlikely most of these candidates would vote for conviction.
But here’s the full list of senators, including Republicans who aren’t up for re-election in 2020: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_senators
Pretty slim pickings for votes in favor of conviction, right?
Up to now, the Republican party has had almost zero consequences for its violation of our democratic norms and its brazen lawlessness and corruption. It’s not just an out-of-control president that they support, it is a legion of vote suppressors, bribe takers, grifters and liars. Given that, why would any of them vote to convict? What Democrats have to do is make the fear of losing the general election, fear of losing contributions, or even fear of going to jail or losing their fortunes because of their participation in their parties crimes that much more salient to their political calculations.
As much as we wish for it, I don’t think “comity” and fruitless searches for “reasonable” Republicans are going to get us any closer to a conviction in the Senate. Instead of treating Trump as an anomaly within the Republican party, all Republicans should be treated as Trump, because essentially they are right now. They are all lawbreakers. The constituent who confronted Senator Joni Ernst had it exactly right- every single Republican senator should be asked the same questions every single day: “where do you draw the line?” “Did you swear an oath to uphold the constitution or your party?”
RICO the RNC. Michael Cohen headed it! Attack the NRA. Destroy ALEC and the rest. Sic the IRS on the rich. They’ll get tangled up in it.
Things can change quickly in politics but right now there are no signs of it. Republicans are between a rock and a hard place and, as others have said, their least unpalatable option appears to be standing in defense of the orange narcissist.
Would it be possible for the Senate to vote to disqualify Trump from running again for any office, without voting to remove him from office? That he could finish his term, but not run for reelection?
I’m pretty sure there’s nothing in the Constitution giving the Senate authority to decide who can (or can’t) run for president.
Collins will come out for voting to convict to try regaining her “moderate” cloak. Rmoney might, because he is already feuding with Agent Orange. Rmoney doesn’t seem like he lets go of snubs like being passed over for SecState, and he is more popular by a large margin back home.
I could see an ambitious Rmoney putting together a coalition to clean house and try to save the party. He came darn close in 2012. The big money would be okay giving the white nationalists the jackboot, and going back to competing in the suburbs for their former voters they lost in 2018.
“Rmoney doesn’t seem like he lets go of snubs…”
Romney will do just about anything he thinks is good for Romney. Or at least, that’s the perception of many political observers who’ve followed Romney’s career going back to his first run for office (against Ted Kennedy) 25 years ago. That includes ignoring snubs and reversing long-held “principles” at the drop of a hat.
As for “the big money”, the RNC seems to be doing just fine these days.
I say all this not to pick an argument, but to underscore the difficulty of the struggle ahead for Democrats/liberals/moderates: there’s nothing in the recent history of our republic that suggests conservatives will contribute to their own political demise.
Sen. Collins, for example, has had over a decade to form a small but powerful “Blue Dog”-like caucus of centrist Republican senators to wield the balance of power in the Senate in exchange for advancing a center-right agenda. She hasn’t. Neither has anyone else. They are what they are.